Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of contributors
- Preface
- Chapter 1 Predictability of weather and climate: from theory to practice
- Chapter 2 Predictability from a dynamical meteorological perspective
- Chapter 3 Predictability – a problem partly solved
- Chapter 4 The Liouville equation and atmospheric predictability
- Chapter 5 Application of generalised stability theory to deterministic and statistical prediction
- Chapter 6 Ensemble-based atmospheric data assimilation
- Chapter 7 Ensemble forecasting and data assimilation: two problems with the same solution?
- Chapter 8 Approximating optimal state estimation
- Chapter 9 Predictability past, predictability present
- Chapter 10 Predictability of coupled processes
- Chapter 11 Predictability of tropical intraseasonal variability
- Chapter 12 Predictability of seasonal climate variations: a pedagogical review
- Chapter 13 Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation
- Chapter 14 On the predictability of flow-regime properties on interannual to interdecadal timescales
- Chapter 15 Model error in weather and climate forecasting
- Chapter 16 Observations, assimilation and the improvement of global weather prediction – some results from operational forecasting and ERA-40
- Chapter 17 The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
- Chapter 18 Limited-area ensemble forecasting: the COSMO-LEPS system
- Chapter 19 Operational seasonal prediction
- Chapter 20 Weather and seasonal climate forecasts using the superensemble approach
- Chapter 21 Predictability and targeted observations
- Chapter 22 The attributes of forecast systems: a general framework for the evaluation and calibration of weather forecasts
- Chapter 23 Predictability from a forecast provider's perspective
- Chapter 24 Ensemble forecasts: can they provide useful early warnings?
- Chapter 25 Predictability and economic value
- Chapter 26 A three-tier overlapping prediction scheme: tools for strategic and tactical decisions in the developing world
- Chapter 27 DEMETER and the application of seasonal forecasts
- Index
- Plate section
- References
Chapter 21 - Predictability and targeted observations
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 03 December 2009
Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of contributors
- Preface
- Chapter 1 Predictability of weather and climate: from theory to practice
- Chapter 2 Predictability from a dynamical meteorological perspective
- Chapter 3 Predictability – a problem partly solved
- Chapter 4 The Liouville equation and atmospheric predictability
- Chapter 5 Application of generalised stability theory to deterministic and statistical prediction
- Chapter 6 Ensemble-based atmospheric data assimilation
- Chapter 7 Ensemble forecasting and data assimilation: two problems with the same solution?
- Chapter 8 Approximating optimal state estimation
- Chapter 9 Predictability past, predictability present
- Chapter 10 Predictability of coupled processes
- Chapter 11 Predictability of tropical intraseasonal variability
- Chapter 12 Predictability of seasonal climate variations: a pedagogical review
- Chapter 13 Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation
- Chapter 14 On the predictability of flow-regime properties on interannual to interdecadal timescales
- Chapter 15 Model error in weather and climate forecasting
- Chapter 16 Observations, assimilation and the improvement of global weather prediction – some results from operational forecasting and ERA-40
- Chapter 17 The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
- Chapter 18 Limited-area ensemble forecasting: the COSMO-LEPS system
- Chapter 19 Operational seasonal prediction
- Chapter 20 Weather and seasonal climate forecasts using the superensemble approach
- Chapter 21 Predictability and targeted observations
- Chapter 22 The attributes of forecast systems: a general framework for the evaluation and calibration of weather forecasts
- Chapter 23 Predictability from a forecast provider's perspective
- Chapter 24 Ensemble forecasts: can they provide useful early warnings?
- Chapter 25 Predictability and economic value
- Chapter 26 A three-tier overlapping prediction scheme: tools for strategic and tactical decisions in the developing world
- Chapter 27 DEMETER and the application of seasonal forecasts
- Index
- Plate section
- References
Summary
The aim of this chapter is to provide a summary of the development of the ideas behind, and experiments undertaking, so-called targeted observations of the atmosphere. The scientific issue is the assessment of the role of such targeted observations in improving the skill of numerical weather predictions for time periods up to two weeks ahead. Particular reference will be made to the problem of forecasting extratropical cyclones. Within the context of the international programme THORPEX, a vision of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) system of the future will be given involving a two-way interaction between the observing system and the NWP system.
Introduction
Severe windstorms and precipitation cause substantial societal and economic impact. It is therefore important to consider how we can accelerate improvements in predictive skill. There have been tremendous strides forward taken in numerically predicting the weather, and the three day forecasts of surface pressure are now about as accurate as the one day forecasts were 20 years ago. This is one of the greatest scientific achievements of the twentieth century, with huge societal and economic benefits. These advances in numerical weather prediction arise from developments in modelling as well as in making and utilising observations. Ensemble predictions enable us to do probability estimations, the observational capability of satellites have increased tremendously and there have been great advances in variational data assimilation.
However, inaccuracy in initial conditions as well as uncertainties in model formulations still remain a problem.
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- Predictability of Weather and Climate , pp. 561 - 583Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2006
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