Operational seasonal prediction

doi:10.1017/CBO9780511617652.020

Chapter 19 - Operational seasonal prediction

Published online by Cambridge University Press: 03 December 2009

David L. T. Anderson

Edited by

Tim Palmer and

Renate Hagedorn

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David L. T. Anderson: Affiliation:
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading; Representing the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting Section, Magdalena Balmaseda, Laura Ferranti, Tim Stockdale, Alberto; Troccoli, Kristian Mogensen, Arthur Vidard, Frederic Vitart
Tim Palmer: Affiliation:
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Renate Hagedorn: Affiliation:
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

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Summary

At ECMWF, a seasonal forecast system has been operating for several years. This system is described and some results presented. The forecasts are made by fully coupled atmosphere ocean models covering the globe. A multimodel forecast system is also well advanced. This approach avoids to some degree the tendency for individual models to be too confident in their predictions. Model error is still a major issue and considerable effort is needed to improve the models.

Introduction

For several years now ECMWF has been running, operationally, a seasonal forecast suite. This consists of an ocean data assimilation system to provide initial conditions for the forecast, a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere model to create the forecast ensemble and a post-processing procedure to generate forecast products. This system is being generalised to include other coupled models and to produce multimodel products. In this chapter we will consider the various components of the forecasting system.

Weather forecasts have a limited forecast range on account of the chaotic nature of the atmosphere (see Lorenz, this volume); depending on what variable one seeks to predict and on what scale, the predictability horizon might be roughly ten days. Why then do we think we can predict climate months or even years ahead? The information on which the predictability of such long timescale processes is based cannot be simply atmospheric (Palmer and Anderson, 1994). The longer timescales come mainly from the ocean, which has a much larger heat capacity and slower dynamics than the atmosphere.

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Type: Chapter
Information: Predictability of Weather and Climate , pp. 514 - 531

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511617652.020 [Opens in a new window]

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Print publication year: 2006

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