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Introducing and applying varinaccuracy: a measure for doubly truncated random variables in reliability analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2025

Akash Sharma
Affiliation:
School of Business, University of Petroleum and Energy Studies, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India
Chanchal Kundu*
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Petroleum Technology, Jais, Uttar Pradesh, India.
*
Corresponding author: Chanchal Kundu; Email: chanchal_kundu@yahoo.com
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Abstract

The Kerridge [(1961). Inaccuracy and inference. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B 23(1): 184-194] inaccuracy measure is the mathematical expectation of the information content of the true distribution with respect to an assumed distribution, reflecting the inaccuracy introduced when the assumed distribution is used. Analyzing the dispersion of information around such measures helps us understand their consistency. The study of dispersion of information around the inaccuracy measure is termed varinaccuracy. Recently, Balakrishnan et al. [(2024). Dispersion indices based on Kerridge inaccuracy measure and Kullback–Leibler divergence. Communications in Statistics – Theory and Methods 53(15): 5574-5592] introduced varinaccuracy, to compare models where lower variance indicates greater precision. As interval inaccuracy is crucial for analyzing the evolution of system reliability over time, examining its variability strengthens the validity of the extracted information. This article introduces the varinaccuracy measure for doubly truncated random variables and demonstrates its significance. The measure has been studied under transformations, and bounds are also provided to broaden the applicability of the measure where direct evaluation is challenging. Additionally, an estimator for the measure is proposed, and its consistency is analyzed using simulated data through a kernel-smoothed nonparametric estimation technique. The estimator is validated on real data sets of COVID-19 mortality rates for Mexico and Italy. Furthermore, the article illustrates the practical value of the measure in selecting the best alternative to a given distribution within an interval, following the minimum information discrimination principle, thereby highlighting the effectiveness of the study.

Information

Type
Research Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press.
Figure 0

Figure 1. Graph of interval varinaccuracy with respect to t1 and t2, respectively, on keeping the other fixed (Counterexample 2.1).

Figure 1

Figure 2. Plot of bound and $\mathcal{VI}_K(X_{t_1,t_2},Y_{t_1,t_2})$ (Theorem 2.6).

Figure 2

Table 1. Estimated values of $\mathcal{\widehat{VI}}_K(\hat{X}_{t_1,t_2},\hat{Y}_{t_1,t_2})$ with true value $\mathcal{VI}_K(X_{t_1,t_2},Y_{t_1,t_2})$ along with the Bias and MSE for different time intervals $(t_1,t_2)$ obtained for sample sizes $n=50, 100, 200, 500 ~\text{and}~1000$.

Figure 3

Table 2. Results of the fitted distribution for Mexico data set.

Figure 4

Table 3. Results of the fitted distribution for Italy data set.

Figure 5

Table 4. $\mathcal{\widehat{VI}}_K(\hat{X}_{t_1,t_2},\hat{Y}_{t_1,t_2})$, $\mathcal{VI}_K(X_{t_1,t_2},Y_{t_1,t_2})$ with bias and MSE for Mexico data set.

Figure 6

Table 5. $\mathcal{\widehat{VI}}_K(\hat{X}_{t_1,t_2},\hat{Y}_{t_1,t_2})$, $\mathcal{VI}_K(X_{t_1,t_2},Y_{t_1,t_2})$ with bias and MSE for Italy data set.

Figure 7

Figure 3. Plot of interval inaccuracy for different values of θ (PHRM) in the time interval $[0.5,1.5]$.

Figure 8

Figure 4. Plot of interval varinaccuracy in the time interval $[0.5,1.5]$ under PHRM for different values of $\theta\in[0,2]$. Note that the parameter of PHRM, θ is dimensionless.