Hostname: page-component-89b8bd64d-rbxfs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-05-08T04:03:46.812Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Modelling occurrence probability of the Endangered green peafowl Pavo muticus in mainland South-east Asia: applications for landscape conservation and management

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 October 2019

Niti Sukumal*
Affiliation:
Conservation Ecology Program, School of Bioresources & Technology, King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi, 49 Soi Thian Thale 25, Bang Khun Thian Chai Thale Road, Tha Kham, Bang Khun Thain, Bangkok 10150, Thailand
Simon D. Dowell
Affiliation:
Chester Zoo, Upton-by-Chester, Chester, UK
Tommaso Savini
Affiliation:
Conservation Ecology Program, School of Bioresources & Technology, King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi, 49 Soi Thian Thale 25, Bang Khun Thian Chai Thale Road, Tha Kham, Bang Khun Thain, Bangkok 10150, Thailand
*
(Corresponding author) E-mail niti_230@hotmail.com
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The green peafowl Pavo muticus is a highly threatened galliform species that was historically distributed widely across South-east Asia. Evidence shows a recent population decline and range contraction for this species, linked with habitat degradation and over-exploitation. This study aimed to determine the current known distribution across mainland South-east Asia and investigate potential habitat that could host remaining viable populations and contribute to the long-term survival of the species. We used locations from historical and recent records and habitat variables from a geographical information system database to model the probability of occurrence and classify key localities according to their relative importance for the species. Our results showed that the green peafowl probably occurs in less than 16% of its historical range across mainland South-east Asia and that remaining locations are fragmented. Four confirmed and two potential stronghold populations were identified for the species, based on the localities with high capacity to contribute to its long-term survival in large contiguous patches. These were in central Myanmar, western and northern Thailand, eastern Cambodia/south-central Viet Nam and northern Cambodia/southern Lao. Threats vary amongst countries, with continued habitat loss and degradation in many areas and hunting particularly acute in Viet Nam, Cambodia and Lao. Most of the remaining populations are in protected areas but the protection level varies widely. We propose conservation actions for each stronghold population, in accordance with the nature of the threats and protection level in each area, to prevent the local extinction of this species.

Information

Type
Article
Copyright
Copyright © Fauna & Flora International 2019 
Figure 0

Fig. 1 Flow chart depicting the sequence of analytical steps used to define stronghold areas (see Methods for details).

Figure 1

Fig. 2 Predicted green peafowl Pavo muticus distribution from modelling based on (a) total records (1874–2015) and (b) recent records (2009–2015).

Figure 2

Table 1 Parameters that influence the probability of occurrence model based on recent and total records of the green peafowl Pavo muticus.

Figure 3

Table 2 Predicted number of calling green peafowl males across sites in mainland South-east Asia. The minimum number of calling males is based on a density of 0.253/km2 observed in YokDon National Park, Viet Nam, an area with a high level of anthropogenic disturbance (Sukumal et al., 2015). The maximum number is based on 11.343/km2, as observed in HuaiKhaKhaeng Wildlife Sanctuary, Thailand, where anthropogenic disturbance is low (Sukumal et al., 2017).

Figure 4

Fig. 3 Potential areas classified as (1) high potential and confirmed areas from overlay between contiguous areas of high probability of occurrence (P > 0.5) based on recent record model, open forest (dry dipterocarp forest, mixed deciduous forest, and forest mixed with grassland), and recent record locations; (2) potential and confirmed areas from overlay between open forest and recent record locations; and (3) high potential but unconfirmed areas from overlay between high probability of occurrence (P > 0.5) based on recent record model, open forest, and historical record locations. Hatched polygons are protected areas that overlap with potential areas.

Figure 5

Fig. 4 Potential areas outside protected areas which are (a) inside unprotected open forest and (b) overlapping with agricultural areas.

Figure 6

Fig. 5 Predicted stronghold areas for green peafowl populations. Solid rectangles are confirmed stronghold areas, defined as having medium to high levels of protection and contiguous areas of protected land. Dashed rectangles are expected stronghold areas, defined by large patches of suitable habitat but requiring confirmation of species records and density estimation. Numbers in circles refer to key localities (Table 2).

Supplementary material: PDF

Sukumal et al. supplementary material

Table S1 and Figure S1

Download Sukumal et al. supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 408.4 KB