Objective: The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score has been recommended for triage during a mass influx of critically ill patients, but it requires laboratory measurement of 4 parameters, which may be impractical with constrained resources. We hypothesized that a modified SOFA (MSOFA) score that requires only 1 laboratory measurement would predict patient outcome as effectively as the SOFA score.

Methods: After a retrospective derivation in a prospective observational study in a 24-bed medical, surgical, and trauma intensive care unit, we determined serial SOFA and MSOFA scores on all patients admitted during the 2008 calendar year and compared the ability to predict mortality and the need for mechanical ventilation.

Results: A total of 1770 patients (56% male patients) with a 30-day mortality of 10.5% were included in the study. Day 1 SOFA and MSOFA scores performed equally well at predicting mortality with an area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.81-.85) and 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.82-.85), respectively (P = .33 for comparison). Day 3 SOFA and MSOFA predicted mortality for the 828 patients remaining in the intensive care unit with an AUC of 0.78 and 0.79, respectively. Day 5 scores performed less well at predicting mortality. Day 1 SOFA and MSOFA predicted the need for mechanical ventilation on day 3, with an AUC of 0.83 and 0.82, respectively. Mortality for the highest category of SOFA and MSOFA score (>11 points) was 53% and 58%, respectively.

Conclusions: The MSOFA predicts mortality as well as the SOFA and is easier to implement in resource-constrained settings, but using either score as a triage tool would exclude many patients who would otherwise survive.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:277-284)

Objective: The paucity of evidence and wide variation among communities creates challenges for developing congressionally mandated national performance standards for public health preparedness. Using countermeasure dispensing as an example, we present an approach for developing standards that balances national uniformity and local flexibility, consistent with the quality of evidence available.

Methods: We used multiple methods, including a survey of community practices, mathematical modeling, and expert panel discussion.

Results: The article presents recommended dispensing standards, along with a general framework that can be used to analyze tradeoffs involved in developing other preparedness standards.

Conclusions: Standards can be developed using existing evidence, but would be helped immensely by a stronger evidence base.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:285-290)

Background: Agents of opportunity (AO) are potentially harmful biological, chemical, radiological, and pharmaceutical substances commonly used for health care delivery and research. AOs are present in all academic medical centers (AMC), creating vulnerability in the health care sector; AO attributes and dissemination methods likely predict risk; and AMCs are inadequately secured against a purposeful AO dissemination, with limited budgets and competing priorities. We explored health care workers' perceptions of AMC security and the impact of those perceptions on AO risk.

Methods: Qualitative methods (survey, interviews, and workshops) were used to collect opinions from staff working in a medical school and 4 AMC-affiliated hospitals concerning AOs and the risk to hospital infrastructure associated with their uncontrolled presence. Secondary to this goal, staff perception concerning security, or opinions about security behaviors of others, were extracted, analyzed, and grouped into themes.

Results: We provide a framework for depicting the interaction of staff behavior and access control engineering, including the tendency of staff to “defeat” inconvenient access controls. In addition, 8 security themes emerged: staff security behavior is a significant source of AO risk; the wide range of opinions about “open” front-door policies among AMC staff illustrates a disparity of perceptions about the need for security; interviewees expressed profound skepticism concerning the effectiveness of front-door access controls; an AO risk assessment requires reconsideration of the security levels historically assigned to areas such as the loading dock and central distribution sites, where many AOs are delivered and may remain unattended for substantial periods of time; researchers' view of AMC security is influenced by the ongoing debate within the scientific community about the wisdom of engaging in bioterrorism research; there was no agreement about which areas of the AMC should be subject to stronger access controls; security personnel play dual roles of security and customer service, creating the negative perception that neither role is done well; and budget was described as an important factor in explaining the state of security controls.

Conclusions: We determined that AMCs seeking to reduce AO risk should assess their institutionally unique AO risks, understand staff security perceptions, and install access controls that are responsive to the staff's tendency to defeat them. The development of AO attribute fact sheets is desirable for AO risk assessment; new funding and administrative or legislative tools to improve AMC security are required; and security practices and methods that are convenient and effective should be engineered.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:291-299)

Objective: Because most bioterrorist disease agents are zoonotic, veterinarians are important partners in preparedness. New York State is a prime port of entry and has a network of health and emergency management agencies for response. However, knowledge and participation by veterinarians has not yet been assessed.

Methods: A 25-question survey was mailed out to approximately half (1832) of the veterinarians licensed in New York State. Participants were asked about past emergency preparedness training, likelihood of participating in future training, preferred training topics, and their relationship with their local health department (LHD).

Results: Completed questionnaires were received from 529 veterinarians (29%). Most (83%) reported that they were likely to participate in emergency preparedness training, but in the past 2 years, only 14% received training in zoonotic disease outbreaks and 12% in emergency preparedness. Only 21% reported having a relationship with their LHD, but 48% were interested in having one. Lack of time was the biggest obstacle to involvement with the LHD (40%). Most (69%) of those responding to the survey said they would participate in training once per year or more often.

Conclusions: Inducements, such as earning continuing education credits, or the development of active networks of preparedness organizations, state and local health departments, and veterinary schools are needed to deliver emergency preparedness training and information efficiently to veterinarians.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:300-305)

Objectives: In April 2006, Connecticut conducted an exercise that tested its ability to receive and dispense antibiotics from the Strategic National Stockpile. In conjunction with the exercise, a competency-based assessment was performed to determine the training needs of point of dispensing (POD) workers.

Methods: POD core competencies were developed by adapting existing preparedness materials. They were used to assess the training needs of more than 250 people who staffed a POD during the exercise. The assessment measured their confidence in their ability to perform 17 competency-based tasks.

Results: The vast majority needed training on 5 or fewer tasks, suggesting that they were fairly well trained. Pharmacists were particularly likely to need training on at least 5 tasks. Given their role in a POD operation, they should be a focus of further training. Almost one third of participants needed additional training on at least 1 of the 3 basic POD Incident Command System tasks. Additional training is also needed on competencies concerning POD safety and security, liability protections, and family preparedness. POD workers who are concerned about these matters may be less willing or able to staff a POD. People who participated in training both before and on the day of the exercise were best prepared to staff the POD, indicating that both types of training have value.

Conclusions: When compared with the competencies, POD workers possessed many of the necessary skills to staff a POD; however, training with emphasis on areas of weakness revealed by the assessment could improve willingness to report for duty and performance.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:306-311)

Objectives: In late June 2006, Ethiopia's Oromiya Region was affected by an outbreak of acute watery diarrhea, subsequently confirmed to be caused by Vibrio cholerae O1, a pathogen not known to be endemic to this area. Despite initial control efforts, the outbreak quickly spread to neighboring zones and regions. The Oromiya Health Bureau required public health assistance to investigate the outbreak, determine potential causes, and assess the adequacy of the response, particularly given the concern that the number of cases being reported by health care personnel might represent only a fraction of what actually existed in the community.

Methods: A physician-epidemiologist–led team assessed the Guji, Bale, and East Shewa zones from September 15 to October 9, 2006. By using a purposive sample, we surveyed health bureau staff and cholera treatment center (CTC) staff and community members, assessed CTC sites, and interviewed key personnel of the various organizations responding to the outbreak.

Results: The cholera cases mapped along the Ganale River. The individual attack rates were low (ranging from ~ 0.03% to ~ 4.12%), as was the overall attack rate for all 3 zones (almost 0.50%). The individual CTC case fatality rates ranged from 0% to 6.4%, and the overall case fatality rate was 1.11%. There was a trend toward men being disproportionately affected. This outbreak resulted primarily from poor sanitation and insufficient access to clean water. In Oromiya, the outbreak was addressed by a prompt and effective response, which included village chairmen at the community level. The use of community-based workers was successful and likely contributed significantly to control of the outbreak.

Conclusion: Future epidemics will undoubtedly occur unless basic water and sanitation deficiencies are properly addressed. This outbreak prompts the need for increased local public health capacity to apply prevention strategies and establish ongoing surveillance. Signatories to the World Health Organization International Health Regulations must report outbreaks of nonendemic diseases.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:312-317)

Agents of opportunity (AO) in academic medical centers (AMC) are defined as unregulated or lightly regulated substances used for medical research or patient care that can be used as “dual purpose” substances by terrorists to inflict damage upon populations. Most of these agents are used routinely throughout AMC either during research or for general clinical practice. To date, the lack of careful regulations for AOs creates uncertain security conditions and increased malicious potential. Using a consensus-based approach, we collected information and opinions from staff working in an AMC and 4 AMC-affiliated hospitals concerning identification of AO, AO attributes, and AMC risk and preparedness, focusing on AO security and dissemination mechanisms and likely hospital response. The goal was to develop a risk profile and framework for AO in the institution. Agents of opportunity in 4 classes were identified and an AO profile was developed, comprising 16 attributes denoting information critical to preparedness for AO misuse. Agents of opportunity found in AMC present a unique and vital gap in public health preparedness. Findings of this project may provide a foundation for a discussion and consensus efforts to determine a nationally accepted risk profile framework for AO. This foundation may further lead to the implementation of appropriate regulatory policies to improve public health preparedness. Agents of opportunity modeling of dissemination properties should be developed to better predict AO risk.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:318-325)

Emergency mental health (EMH), a field that is often not well represented when considering emergency preparedness, is nonetheless a vital component to any disaster response. Emergency mental health issues must be considered not only for victims of disasters and their families, friends, and coworkers but also for both on-scene and off-scene responders and members of the community who may have witnessed the disaster. This article describes the EMH preparation for and response to the crash of Continental Airlines flight 3407 in western New York on February 12, 2009, killing all 49 crew and passengers on board and 1 person on the ground. It describes aspects of the response that went as planned and highlights areas for improvement. The lessons learned from this EMH preparation and response can be used to inform future planning for disaster response.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:326-331)

Methods: An effective disaster response requires competent responders and leaders. The purpose of this study was to ask experts to identify attributes that distinguish effective from ineffective responders and leaders in a disaster. In this qualitative study, focus groups were held with jurisdictional medical directors for the 9-1-1 emergency medical services systems of the majority of the nation's largest cities. These sessions were recorded with audio equipment and later transcribed.

Results: The researchers identified themes within the transcriptions, created categories, and coded passages into these categories. Overall interrater reliability was excellent (κ = .8). The focus group transcripts yielded 138 codable passages. Ten categories were developed from analysis of the content: Incident Command System/Disaster Training/Experience, General Training/Experience, Teamwork/Interpersonal, Communication, Cognition, Problem Solving/Decision Making, Adaptable/Flexible, Calm/Cool, Character, and Performs Role. The contents of these categories included knowledge, skills, attitudes, behaviors, and personal characteristics.

Conclusions: Experts in focus groups identified a variety of competencies for disaster responders and leaders. These competencies will require validation through further research that involves input from the disaster response community at large.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:332-338)

Objective: Disaster mental health (DMH) is vital to comprehensive disaster preparedness for communities. A train-the-trainer (TTT) model is frequently used in public health to disseminate knowledge and skills to communities, although few studies have examined its success. We report on the development and implementation of a DMH TTT program and examine variables that predict dissemination.

Methods: This secondary analysis examines 140 community-based mental health providers' participation in a TTT DMH program in 2005–2006. Instructors' dissemination of the training was followed for 12 months. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to predict dissemination of the training program.

Results: Sixty percent of the trainees in the DMH TTT program conducted training programs in the 12-month period following being trained. The likelihood of conducting training programs was predicted by a self-report measure of perceptions of transfer of training. The number of individuals subsequently trained (559) was predicted by prior DMH training and sex. No other variables predicted dissemination of DMH training.

Conclusions: The TTT model was moderately successful in disseminating DMH training. Intervention at the organizational and individual level, as well as training modifications, may increase cost-effective dissemination of DMH training.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:339-343)