1. Introduction

Since the 9/11 terrorist attacks Saudi Arabia has been seeking to rebalance its relations with the world major powers. As a result, the Saudis have been pursuing a “hedging strategy” toward the United States, by developing a more robust relationship with Asian powers, particularly China. Furthermore, the uprisings that swept the Arab countries in 2011 and resulted in the overthrowing of some Arab leaders could have very serious implications for Saudi Arabia's foreign affairs in the long term.

These political developments were coupled with change in the geopolitical landscape of the world's energy demand/supply. First, Saudi Arabia is facing a significant shift in demand from West to East. Second, Saudi Arabia's dominant role in the world oil supply could be altered by: (a) the development of the large new unconventional oil reserves in North America; (b) unrestrained domestic fuel consumption within Saudi Arabia itself; (c) a substantial increase in Iraqi production, with significant spare capacity.

Within this context, Riyadh's three main foreign policy objectives have been to (a) maintain a strategic partnership with the United States, which is fundamental to its security; (b) maximise its global and regional political influence through its financial and Islamic “soft power”; and (c) maximise the economic and geopolitical benefits from being the most important oil producer in the world and de facto leader of OPEC. When these three objectives cannot be accommodated simultaneously, national security takes precedence. In other words, Saudi Arabia prefers an outcome that protects its special relationship with the United States over alternative outcomes that would imply higher economic benefits or global and regional influence. However, in the last decade the economic and political calculation of Saudi Arabia has been complicated by many domestic and international factors which may require new policies. The combination of global structural shifts and local political transitions raises a critical question: what will be the strategic and economic implications of an eastward shift in focus by Saudi Arabia? This chapter argues that although Saudi Arabia does continue to rely on the United States in its defence policy, in the longer term, changes in the local, regional and international environment coupled with growing integration of Saudi Arabia's economy with Asian economies could push the Kingdom to diversify its political agenda and security arrangements.