India's north-east has been beset by problems arising from lack of economic development and insurgency for long. Though the reasons for these are manifold, they primarily lie within the region's sociological, geographic, historical, economic and political spheres. This book is aimed at giving the reader an overview of the major crises that hamper advancement in the north-east, with the hope that it would assist in arriving at solutions.

The ‘north-east’ comprises the states of Assam, Arunachal, Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura, Meghalaya, Sikkim, and North Bengal, which though hasn't yet been officially included in the region, forms an integral part of it. The north-east is an area clouded with lack of knowledge and ambiguity for most of our citizens. That it is today an underdeveloped area, troubled with strife, insurgency and low-intensity conflict with our neighbours, where modernity is in conflict with tradition, is largely due to the indifference of the rest of the country. With over 500 different ethnic groups, of which 110 are major, and a consequent diverse ethnic sub-nationalism governed by the primordial values of ‘tribe – land – autonomy’, there is only one commonality – a partially mongoloid heritage. People are in conflict with the state and other ethnic groups, because they feel their values have not been respected and they have been alienated by segregation, social deprivation, lack of development, exploitation because they look, speak and believe differently.

General Overview

Undivided Assam, after British colonisation, was a huge state encompassing the entire north-east, excluding the erstwhile North-East Frontier tracts (present-day Arunachal and north-eastern Nagaland), Manipur, Tripura, Sikkim and North Bengal. Since Independence, it has been progressively split up into smaller states based broadly on ethnic grouping and now consists of:

• plains of the Brahmaputra valley,

• Karbi Anglong Plateau,

• plains of the Barak Valley,

• Cachar and North Cachar Hills,

• plains of Karimganj and Hailakundi districts bordering Bangladesh,

• It is enclosed on all sides by all the other north-eastern states with the exception of Sikkim and Bangladesh. Its unique geographic location – it sits astride the Brahmaputra and Barak river valley plains and has access to all north-eastern areas within it – makes it the hub and the core of the region.

Population and Demography

Assam's population as per the 2001 census was 26,68,407. While details of the 2001 census are still not available, the 1991 census had:

1. 13% Hindus,

2. 48% Muslims,

3. 4% Christians,

4. 8% Budhists,

5. 8% Sikhs,

6. Balance undeclared

Assam's ethnic break-up is broadly:

1. Assamese of Aryan origin 9%,

2. Assamese of Ahom origin 10%,

3. Assamese Muslims (pre-1901) 6%,

4. Mongoloid tribals including Bodos 12%,

5. Manipuris 2%,

6. Nepalese 2%,

7. Tea Tribes (Adivasis) 15%,

8. Bangladeshi Muslims 22%,

9. Bangladeshi Hindus 17%,

10. Labour class from other parts of India 3%.

The Present Politico-Economic Model

The present policy framework for the region is based on a centrally controlled political economy and a cultural approach, adjusted with a regional planning model. It is implemented mainly through the Planning Commission and the North East Council. In this model, the northeast states are required to submit project proposals to the North East Council headquartered in Shillong after taking aspects related to their culture and traditions into consideration. These are then considered at the Council headquarters and then placed before the Council, which consists of the governors, chief ministers, other relevant ministers and bureaucrats of all north-east states, who jointly take a decision on projects, which are to be submitted to the Planning Commission at Delhi. These are considered by the commission and submitted to the government for approval. Projects that will ultimately be executed are dependent on release of funds by Delhi. In reality, nothing goes as per the projections as the system gets short-circuited by states approaching Delhi directly and vested interests coming into play.

Benefits of the Model

All north-eastern states have been declared “Special Category States”, which entitle them to 90% of central assistance as grants and 10% as loan. Some public sector units have also been set up. Industrial licensing, concessional finance, investment subsidy, growth centres, and freight equalisation for some industries have been used to try and promote industrial development.

Applicable nonlinear difference equations

Nonlinear phenomena, in some of its areas, have already been shown to be amenable to mathematization through differential equations. Their evolutionary characteristics have also been dealt with. The purpose of this appendix is to show, in brief, and once again, how a nonlinear phenomenon becomes not only mathematized through what are called nonlinear ‘difference equations’, but also revealing.

We choose again a situation from a biological system. It relates, in particular, to population biology. Let N represent some quantitative measure for a biological population. We take it that essential changes of N take place at certain discrete moments t1, t2 … which usually correspond to the birth of a new generation. Let N0 be the initial value of N at time t0; let the change of the variable N at a given time ti+1 (i = 0, 1, 2, …) be determined by its value at time ti and by externalities like food, habitation, etc. Let Ni be the value of N at time ti. We have then the difference equation of the type

where µ∈∧, the parameter space containing the information conditioned by externalities.

It is a matter of history that Malthus, way back in 1798, proposed a linear dependence of f on N, assuming the change of population to be proportional to the number of individuals:

where C(µ)>–1 is the difference between the birth rate B(µ) and the death rate D(µ).

General Overview

In the preceding chapters, I familiarised readers with the north-east, the insurgency, issues of servicemen/ex-servicemen, and my views on arriving at viable solutions related to foreign, internal, economic and politico–military policies. I will now cover other aspects of problem resolution, within the overall canvas of the region.

I must begin by reiterating that steps towards problem resolution have to be considered for the region in its entirety and not in isolation, as methods of resolution for one state would in all probability impinge on the well-being of another. Simplistic answers (as is the view in Delhi) that resolution of problems with the NSCN (I&M) will automatically resolve insurgency in the entire region as the NSCN (I&M) is the mother organisation to most of the insurgent groups, is a total fallacy. Giving in to their demands would agonise the sensibilities of the ethnic groups of all the neighbouring states.

ISSUES SPECIFIC TO ASSAM

Development in Assam

Assam is the hub of the region – unless there is major economic progress, the problems of the state cannot be resolved. This implies that the highest priority and financial assistance/investment for development in all its facets must be given to Assam, so that it can be developed into an industrial and agricultural base for finished products and infrastructure for the entire region. The NEC should control this to ensure that the entire region's requirements are met.

In the last section, we had an overview of the entire north-east region and its states. We also had a glimpse of the effects of the large numbers of servicemen/ex-servicemen residing in the region and the profound impact our foreign policy has had in contributing to the present situation in the north-east. We would now look at possible options for problem resolution, starting with our foreign policy.

Duties of the State – National Security

Whether in ancient treatises on statecraft, such as the Arthashatra, or the modern concept of ‘nation state’, or our Constitution, everywhere it is stated that it is the bounden duty of the nation to ensure freedom and independence to its citizens and protect their core values and interests – this is what is implied by ‘national security’. An important ingredient of national security is the adoption of suitable policies and relations with other nations, which will contribute to security. It is however clear that we have not succeeded in this objective and are instead fighting a proxy war sponsored by the powers and hence the need to review our policy.

We need to face the fact that we currently have to survive in a unipolar world, with one superpower and a number of regional big powers, whose values and national interests may not coincide with ours. Whenever our policy has been on a collision course with them, we have reaped the consequences.

The title of this remarkable book says it all. Lt General J R Mukherjee, PVSM, AVSM, VSM (Retd) is an ‘insider’ with over twenty four years of service in our north-eastern region in various capacities ranging from a company commander to Chief of Staff, Eastern Command. In addition, he has an insider's Regimental and familial ties with the north-east. Added to this is his considerable experience in tackling insurgencies not only in our north-eastern states but also as a Corps Commander in J…K during the Kargil War. His views and recommendations, many of which are radical and thought provoking will, I am sure, bring in a freshness to what has unfortunately become a stale and repetitive discourse on the insurgencies in our north eastern states.

This book, notable for its brevity and focus on essentials, can be read at various levels. It could be a reading as an introductory book for those interested in or posted to the north-east; an aide in understanding the complex problems of each of the eight north eastern states and North Bengal; a catalyst for new initiatives and for prompting re-examination and debate on north eastern policies; and finally as a case study of how well intentioned but flawed policies generate violence.

Location, Demography and History

Nagaland astrides the Patkai and Naga hill ranges of the eastern hills. It has Arunachal and Assam to its north, Myanmar to its east, Manipur to its south and Assam to its west. It has about 20 resident tribes (14 major), conjointly called Nagas.

As per the 2001 census, the population is 1,988,636.

The approximate but pertinent tribal break-up is:

• Angami 9%,

• Ao 15%,

• Chakesang 8%,

• Chang 2%,

• Khiamniungan 2%,

• Konyak 15%,

• Lotha 7%,

• Phom 3%,

• Rengma 1.5%,

• Makware 0.5%,

• Sangtam 4%,

• Sema 13%,

• Tikhir 0.5%,

• Yimchunger 2%,

• Zeliang 2%,

• Garos 1%,

• Chir/BodoKachari/Kuki/Mikir/others 16%.

The origin of the term ‘Naga’ is obscure – it is used to identify tribes living in the Naga Hills. Nagaland has no recorded history other than some folklore documented by the British and Indian authorities who served or travelled in Nagaland such as Verrier Elwin, Lt Gen S K Pillai, PVSM (Retired), Bob Kathing, N F Suntook, a few references to them in the Ahom Chronicles, passing references in Hindu epics, and aspects of folklore related by people in Nagaland. Folklore and anthropological studies indicate the tribes migrated from the general area of Yunnan, before the birth of Christ. Each of these tribes settled into separate areas in the Naga Hills and has throughout been antagonistic to each other.

15 years after developing countries embarked on energy sector reform and liberalization, the promise of quick energy market transformation to attract private sector has proven illusory even in countries such as Argentina, Brazil and East Asian miracle countries. Since the late 1980s, developing countries ranging from Argentina in Latin America and China and India in Asia, to countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), launched energy sector reform as part of their economic liberalization program to attract private investment in their energy sectors. Attempted reform measures in the energy sector include liberalizing energy prices, establishing independent and transparent regulatory institutions, restructuring/ commercialization/ privatization and creating an environment to attract private investment in energy.

As of 2005, developing countries continue to face energy shortages and power black-outs persist. As the demand for energy increased, non-OPEC net oil exporters such as China turned to become net oil importer. There is little reduction in the number of over 2 billion people, accounting for over 40 per cent of the population in the developing world, who lack access to commercial energy. Even with slower rates of growth, the world's population will increase from 6 billion to 8 billion in 2050. The share of population in developing regions will increase from 77 per cent today to 85 per cent in 2030 and to over 90 per cent by 2050.

Taking into consideration the lessons of energy sector reform experience since the 1990s and the challenges of energy for development faced by developing countries at the global and national level discussed in earlier chapters, what is the way forward? Three factors influence the way forward for energy future. First, a new era of global energy is emerging in the initial years of the twenty-first century heralded by profound changes in the economic and political systems and policies of a significant part of the world. Second, energy security concerns linked with geopolitics are shaping energy strategies of oil importing countries. Finally, the development paradigm shift envisaged in the energy sector in the 1990s to privatization and free market in energy for development is now being replaced by the shift toward public- private partnership (PPP). It is now clear to all energy stakeholders, governments of developing and developed countries, multilateral development and financial institutions and energy industry that there cannot be strong private sector involvement in energy in developing countries without an effective and strong government.

Given the disconnect between expectations and realities of energy sector reform from the perspective of various energy stakeholders discussed in earlier chapters, key questions about progress could be raised from the perspective of these stakeholders. For developing countries the way forward raises the issue of how policy principles can be translated into effective implementation by improving economic governance and building the required institutions to modernize the state.

The global energy industry entered the year 2005 with rising oil prices, uncertainty about future trends in oil prices, rising shares of developing countries in the world energy consumption contributing to continued domination of use of fossil fuels in the energy mix and serious concerns about energy security.

Globalization and continued liberalization of international trade and investment since the 1990s, the political and economic transformation of Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union (FSU) and the events since 2001 are changing the global energy industry in the new millennium. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 signalled the failure of the command and control economy. Most of the world recognized the need for the changing role of the state from being the owner to the facilitator of business. For the first time many world economies embarked on the path of liberalization by moving toward the market by opening up trade, by deregulating their economies and by privatizing public enterprises.

The waves of economic globalization and continued liberalization of international trade and investment are most evident in the global energy industry. All segments of the global energy industry from exploration and production (E&P), transportation, refining and marketing to the power utility sector, are being shaped since the 1990s by the emerging trends and influences of the new market dynamics. Given that developing countries started to reform their energy sectors modelled on developed countries since the 1990s, the changing international energy industry, (including the ongoing energy market reforms in OECD countries) has implications for developing countries.