Effective management of uncertainty can lead to better, more informed decisions. However, many decision makers and their advisers do not always face up to uncertainty, in part because there is little constructive guidance or tools available to help. This paper outlines six Uncertainty Principles to manage uncertainty.

• Face up to uncertainty

• Deconstruct the problem

• Don’t be fooled (un/intentional biases)

• Models can be helpful, but also dangerous

• Think about adaptability and resilience

• Bring people with you

With their sizes larger than 0.7 Mpc, Giant Radio Galaxies (GRGs) are the largest individual objects in the Universe. To date, the reason why they reach such enormous extensions is still unclear. One of the proposed scenarios suggests that they are the result of multiple episodes of jet activity. Cross-correlating the INTEGRAL+Swift AGN population with radio catalogues (NVSS, FIRST, SUMSS), we found that 22% of the sources are GRG (a factor four higher than those selected from radio catalogues). Remarkably, all of the sources in the sample show signs of restarting radio activity. The X-ray properties are consistent with this scenario, the sources being in a high-accretion, high-luminosity state with respect to the previous activity responsible for the radio lobes.

A search has been made using the Buckland Park air shower array for evidence of any excess of events from the direction of the recent supernova in the Large Magellanic Cloud. Upper limits resulting from this search and their significance are discussed in this paper.

The extreme isotropy of cosmic ray events allows one to put upper limits on any possible non-isotropic contribution to the flux. In particular, one can investigate any excess of events which may be confined to the galactic plane. Such extra events would be expected from galactic ultra-high-energy (UHE) gamma-ray sources. Under the assumption of an isotropic cosmic ray flux, recent Buckland Park data place a 95% confidence level limit on the total southern hemisphere (declination −15° to −55°) flux of UHE gamma-rays at between 0.6 and 6 equivalent Cygnus X-3 sources, depending on assumptions concerning the gamma-ray spectrum.

Charcoal is the result of natural and anthropogenic burning events, when biomass is exposed to elevated temperatures under conditions of restricted oxygen. This process produces a range of materials, collectively known as pyrogenic carbon, the most inert fraction of which is known as black carbon (BC). BC degrades extremely slowly and is resistant to diagenetic alteration involving the addition of exogenous carbon, making it a useful target substance for radiocarbon dating particularly of more ancient samples, where contamination issues are critical. We present results of tests using a new method for the quantification and isolation of BC, known as hydropyrolysis (hypy). Results show controlled reductive removal of non-BC organic components in charcoal samples, including lignocellulosic and humic material. The process is reproducible and rapid, making hypy a promising new approach not only for isolation of purified BC for 14C measurement but also in quantification of different labile and resistant sample C fractions.

To determine whether patients diagnosed as having chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) constitute a clinically homogeneous class, multivariate statistical analyses were used to derive symptom patterns and potential patient subclasses in 565 patients. The notion that patients currently diagnosed as having CFS constitute a single homogeneous class was rejected. An alternative set of clinical subgroups was derived. The validity of these subgroups was assessed by sociodemographic, psychiatric, immunological and illness behaviour variables. A two-class statistical solution was considered most coherent, with patients from the smaller class (27% of the sample) having clinical characteristics suggestive of somatoform disorders. The larger class (73% of sample) presented a more limited combination of fatigue and neuropsychological symptoms, and only moderate disability but remained heterogeneous clinically. The two patient groups differed with regard to duration of illness, spontaneous recovery, severity of current psychological morbidity, utilization of medical services and CD8 T cell subset counts. The distribution of symptoms among patients was not unimodal, supporting the notion that differences between the proposed subclasses were not due simply to differences in symptom severity. This study demonstrated clinical heterogeneity among patients currently diagnosed as CFS, suggesting aetiological heterogeneity. In the absence of discriminative clinical features, current consensus criteria do not necessarily reduce the heterogeneity of patients recruited to CFS research studies.

On 24 August 2008, an outbreak alert regarding cases of acute gastroenteritis in Podgorica triggered investigations to guide control measures. From 23 August to 7 September, 1699 cases were reported in Podgorica (population 136 000) and we estimated the total size of the outbreak to be 10 000–15 000 corresponding to an attack rate of ~10%. We conducted an age- and neighbourhood-matched case-control study, microbiologically analysed faecal and municipal water samples and assessed the water distribution system. All cases (83/83) and 90% (89/90) of controls drank unboiled chlorinated municipal water [matched odds ratio (mOR) 11·2, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1·6–∞]. Consumption of bottled water was inversely associated with illness (mOR 0·3, 95% CI 0·1–0·8). Analyses of faecal samples identified six norovirus genotypes (21/38 samples) and occasionally other viruses. Multiple defects in the water distribution system were noted. These results suggest that the outbreak was caused by faecally contaminated municipal water. It is unusual to have such a large outbreak in a European city especially when the municipal water supply is chlorinated. Therefore, it is important to establish effective multiple-barrier water-treatment systems whenever possible, but even with an established chlorinated supply, sustained vigilance is central to public health.

Infestation of the white mouse with Fasciola hepatica resulted in cumulative damage to the liver parenchyma.

Severe traumatic injury by the migrating young flukes left clearly differentiated migration pathways with progressive leucocytic infiltration. Acidophilic hyaline, necrotic patches which developed early in the infestation spread in the advanced stages to involve whole lobules while changes occurred in the bile ducts.

Electron microscopy showed intracellular changes present in both early and late stages of infestation. This was interpreted as supporting the view that a toxic element is, to a greater extent than previously recognised, responsible for the morphogenesis of liver lesions in experimental fascioliasis.

On examining a sample of tanaids from the bathybenthos of the Rockall Trough, part of an extensive collection made by the Scottish Marine Biological Association (S.M.B.A), some very thin translucent tubes were noted. In these could be discerned several tanaids, one of which was extremely elongate. These proved to belong to a new genus, the adults of which were even more filiform than Filitanais moskalevi Kudinova-Pasternak, 1973. Scrutiny by the authors of other Rockall Trough samples has resulted in more adult specimens of this remarkable new tanaid being obtained. In this paper it is diagnosed and described, together with a discussion of its biology.

Four years after the occurrence of an outbreak of hepatitis B and HIV infection among injecting drug user inmates at Her Majesty's Prison Glenochil in Scotland, a study design was developed to complete the epidemiological account of the HIV outbreak. Our aim was to identify potential cases of (1) HIV transmission not diagnosed during the original outbreak investigation and (2) the source(s) of the outbreak. Scotland's HIV positive case register was searched for matches to a soundexed list of 636 Glenochil inmates imprisoned during January–June 1993. Eight HIV infections that may have been acquired in Glenochil and four possible sources of the outbreak were identified. The second stage of follow-up – molecular epidemiological techniques used on stored sera samples from identified individuals – is described in the companion paper. Without breach of medical or prisoner confidentiality, indirect and anonymous follow-up has proved possible for the Glenochil inmates.

Results of a retrospective survey of the reasons for referral and admission to a specialist neuropsychiatric hospital are presented in an effort to address the uncertainties which exist regarding the nature of the conditions treated by this subspecialty. The results indicate that a wide range of both neurological and psychiatric conditions are treated, but the paper suggests that boundaries between these two specialities are largely conceptual and that the differentiating principle in the practice of neuropsychiatry is mainly philosophical.