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How do international crises unfold? We conceptualize international relations as a strategic chess game between adversaries and develop a systematic way to measure pieces, moves, and gambits accurately and consistently over a hundred years of history. We introduce a new ontology and dataset of international events called ICBe based on a very high-quality corpus of narratives from the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project. We demonstrate that ICBe has higher coverage, recall, and precision than existing state of the art datasets and conduct two detailed case studies of the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) and the Crimea-Donbas Crisis (2014). We further introduce two new event visualizations (event iconography and crisis maps), an automated benchmark for measuring event recall using natural language processing (synthetic narratives), and an ontology reconstruction task for objectively measuring event precision. We make the data, supplementary appendix, replication material, and visualizations of every historical episode available at a companion website crisisevents.org.
Young people may have elevated risk for poorer mental health during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, yet longitudinal studies documenting this impact are lacking. This study assessed changes in mental health and help-seeking since COVID-19 restrictions in young Australians, including gender differences.
Methods
Data were drawn from a recent subsample (n = 443; 60% female; Mage = 22.0) of a prospective cohort originally recruited in secondary school to complete annual surveys. The subsample completed an additional COVID-19 survey during COVID-19 restrictions (May–June 2020), which was compared to responses from their latest annual survey (August 2019–March 2020). Mixed effect models with time and gender as the primary predictors were conducted for: (i) scores on the Patient Health Questionnaire Depression 9-item (PHQ-9) and Generalised Anxiety Disorder 7-item (GAD-7) modules assessed before and during COVID-19 restrictions, and (ii) self-reported help-seeking from a health professional in February 2020, and the month preceding May–June 2020.
Results
Mean symptom scores increased from before to during COVID-19 restrictions on the PHQ-9 (coefficient: 1.29; 95% CI 0.72–1.86) and GAD-7 (0.78; 95% CI 0.26–1.31), but there was no increase in help-seeking over time (odds ratio 0.50; 95% CI 0.19–1.32). There was no evidence of differential changes by gender.
Conclusions
This study found increases in depression and anxiety symptoms but not greater help-seeking among young Australian adults during the first wave of the pandemic. Increasing availability and awareness of accessible treatment options and psychoeducation is critical, as well as further research into risk and protective factors to help target treatment to this vulnerable age group.
Parents are a major supplier of alcohol to adolescents, yet there is limited research examining the impact of this on adolescent alcohol use. This study investigates associations between parental supply of alcohol, supply from other sources, and adolescent drinking, adjusting for child, parent, family and peer variables.
Method
A cohort of 1927 adolescents was surveyed annually from 2010 to 2014. Measures include: consumption of whole drinks; binge drinking (>4 standard drinks on any occasion); parental supply of alcohol; supply from other sources; child, parent, family and peer covariates.
Results
After adjustment, adolescents supplied alcohol by parents had higher odds of drinking whole beverages [odds ratio (OR) 1.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33–2.45] than those not supplied by parents. However, parental supply was not associated with bingeing, and those supplied alcohol by parents typically consumed fewer drinks per occasion (incidence rate ratio 0.86, 95% CI 0.77–0.96) than adolescents supplied only from other sources. Adolescents obtaining alcohol from non-parental sources had increased odds of drinking whole beverages (OR 2.53, 95% CI 1.86–3.45) and bingeing (OR 3.51, 95% CI 2.53–4.87).
Conclusions
Parental supply of alcohol to adolescents was associated with increased risk of drinking, but not bingeing. These parentally-supplied children also consumed fewer drinks on a typical drinking occasion. Adolescents supplied alcohol from non-parental sources had greater odds of drinking and bingeing. Further follow-up is necessary to determine whether these patterns continue, and to examine alcohol-related harm trajectories. Parents should be advised that supply of alcohol may increase children's drinking.
Big data is becoming a buzzword in today's corporate language and lay discussions. From individually targeting advertising based on previous consumer behavior or Internet searches to debates by Congress concerning National Security Agency (NSA) access to phone metadata, the era of big data has arrived. Thus, the Guzzo, Fink, King, Tonidandel, and Landis (2015) discussion of the challenges (e.g., confidentiality, informed consent) that big data projects present to industrial and organizational (I-O) psychologists is timely. If the hype associated with these techniques is warranted, then our field has a clear imperative to debate the ethics and best practices surrounding use of these techniques. We believe that Guzzo et al. have done our field a service by starting this discussion.
Variability in the distribution and abundance of the plankton of the western English Channel has been investigated in relation to the hydrography of the region by surveys using the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) (Hardy, 1939) and the Undulating Oceanographic Recorder (UOR) (Aiken, 1981a). Previous surveys in the western English Channel have been restricted in area or in time. Harvey et al. (1935), Holligan & Harbour (1977) and Maddock, Boalch & Harbour (1981) have studied the seasonal succession of the plankton at point stations near Plymouth, with analysis of patterns of seasonal succession and phyto-zooplankton relationships; Boalch, Harbour & Butler (1978) measured primary production at three stations across the western English Channel over a period of eleven years (1964–74); Pingree et al. (1976) have shown that the development of populations of phytoplankton are influenced by the establishment and development of the seasonal thermocline and also frontal regions, both of which are determined largely by tidal streaming.
The south to north development of the spring bloom in the North Atlantic Ocean was observed during four cruises from April to August 1989. Transects with towed undulating instrumentation packages and CTD profiles on station were made between 42°N and 54°N, along 17°W and 20°W in April and between 47°N and 60°N along 20°N in May, June and July/August, giving vertical sections of temperature and chlorophyll concentration derived from in vivo fluorescence. These sections show the relationship between the onset of seasonal stratification and the initiation of the spring bloom. Supporting data from microscopic analysis of the major phytoplankton species show that the seasonal succession commenced with diatoms, followed in turn by coccolithophores, flagellates and dinoflagellates. During the development of summer stratification the mesoscale distribution of chlorophyll was strongly determined by the depth of the mixed layer, but once stratification had been firmly established higher chlorophyll values tended to be found within the warmer eddies (meanders). One possible explanation of this result is that phytoplankton growth is higher in the warmer eddies.
Large populations of marine turtles breeding in the Cayman Islands were drastically reduced in the early 1800s. However, marine turtle nesting still occurs in the islands. The present-day status of this nesting population provides insight into the conservation of marine turtles, a long-lived species. In 1998 and 1999, the first systematic survey of marine turtle nesting in the Cayman Islands found 38 nests on 22 beaches scattered through the three islands. Three species were found: the green Chelonia mydas, hawksbill Eretmochelys imbricata and loggerhead Caretta caretta turtles. Comparison with other rookeries suggests that the small number of sexually mature adults surviving Cayman's huge perturbations may be impeding population recovery. This shows the need to implement conservation measures prior to massive reductions in population size.
Nanocrystalline indium tin oxide (ITO) powder is prepared by gas phase condensation (GPC) and used to produce conductive optical coatings. Materials produced by GPC are commercially available at reasonable cost and bridge the gap between basic science and product development. Nanocrystalline ITO films are transparent (>95%), conductive, and offer distinct device processing advantages. The oxidation state and surface chemistry of ITO may be tailored for particular applications and offers a flexible, affordable alternative to competitive films. The preparation and characterization of nanocrystalline ITO films and device applications will be discussed.
In a randomized double-blind study 60 children, undergoing the extraction of carious deciduous teeth under day-case general anaesthesia, were assigned to receive either intravenous nalbuphine hydrochloride 0.3 mg kg−1 (n = 21), one or more diclofenac suppositories 12.5 mg to a dose of 1–2 mg kg−1 (n = 19), or no analgesia (n = 20). The duration of anaesthesia was longer in the diclofenac group (9.6 min, SD 3.5) compared with control (7.2 min, SD 2.6) and nalbuphine (6.9 min, SD 3.0) groups respectively (P < 0.05). There were no statistically significant differences in post-operative pain scores during the 45 min post-operative period studied between the three groups using an objective pain score. We conclude that using this methodology we were unable to demonstrate any statistically significant differences between the analgesic effects of either intravenous (i.v.) nalbuphine or diclofenac suppositories compared with control.
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