5 results
Base rate neglect and conservatism in probabilistic reasoning: Insights from eliciting full distributions
- Piers Douglas Lionel Howe, Andrew Perfors, Bradley Walker, Yoshihisa Kashima, Nicolas Fay
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- Journal:
- Judgment and Decision Making / Volume 17 / Issue 5 / September 2022
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 01 January 2023, pp. 962-987
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Bayesian statistics offers a normative description for how a person should combine their original beliefs (i.e., their priors) in light of new evidence (i.e., the likelihood). Previous research suggests that people tend to under-weight both their prior (base rate neglect) and the likelihood (conservatism), although this varies by individual and situation. Yet this work generally elicits people’s knowledge as single point estimates (e.g., x has a 5% probability of occurring) rather than as a full distribution. Here we demonstrate the utility of eliciting and fitting full distributions when studying these questions. Across three experiments, we found substantial variation in the extent to which people showed base rate neglect and conservatism, which our method allowed us to measure for the first time simultaneously at the level of the individual. While most people tended to disregard the base rate, they did so less when the prior was made explicit. Although many individuals were conservative, there was no apparent systematic relationship between base rate neglect and conservatism within each individual. We suggest that this method shows great potential for studying human probabilistic reasoning.
OP122 Applications For Research Funding: How Many Peer Reviewers Do We Need?
- Sheila Turner, Nicola McArdle, Abby Bull, Fay Chinnery, Jeremy Hinks, Rebecca Moran, Helen Payne, Eleanor Woodford Guegan, Louise Worswick, Jeremy Wyatt
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- Journal:
- International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care / Volume 34 / Issue S1 / 2018
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 03 January 2019, pp. 46-47
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Introduction:
The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) is a major funder of health research in the United Kingdom. Selecting the most promising studies to fund is crucial, and external expert peer review is used to inform the funding boards. Our aim was to evaluate the influence of different kinds and numbers of peer review and reviewer scores on Board funding decisions, and how we might modify the process to reduce the workload for stakeholders.
Methods:Our mixed method study included i) retrospective cross sectional analysis of funding board and external reviewer scores for second stage applications for research funding, using Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves to quantify the influence of reviewer scores on funding decisions and ii) qualitative interviews with thirty stakeholders (funding board members, applicants, external peer reviewers and NIHR staff).
Results:Analysis of ROC area for reviewers indicated that areas changed very little with increasing numbers of reviewers from four to seven or more. External reviewers with clinical, methodological or patient expertise all appeared to influence Board funding decisions to a similar extent. The stakeholders interviewed valued peer review but felt it was important to develop a more proportionate process, to better balance its benefit with the workload of obtaining, preparing, reading and responding to reviews. Reviews are of most value when they fill gaps in expertise on the Board. Less than four reviews was felt to be insufficient but more than six, excessive. Workload could be reduced by making reviews more focused on the strengths and weaknesses of applications and identifying flaws which are potentially “fixable”.
Conclusions:Stakeholders supported the need for peer review in evaluating funding applications. Our results suggest that four to six peer reviews per application is optimum, depending on the expertise needed to complement that of advisory boards.
Maternal mental health and child problem behaviours: disentangling the role of depression and borderline personality dysfunction
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- Fay Huntley, Nicola Wright, Andrew Pickles, Helen Sharp, Jonathan Hill
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- Journal:
- BJPsych Open / Volume 3 / Issue 6 / November 2017
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 02 January 2018, pp. 300-305
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Background
It is not known whether associations between child problem behaviours and maternal depression can be accounted for by comorbid borderline personality disorder (BPD) dysfunction.
AimTo examine the contributions of maternal depression and BPD symptoms to child problem behaviours.
MethodDepression trajectories over the fist-year postpartum were generated using repeated measurement from a general population sample of 997 mothers recruited in pregnancy. In a stratified subsample of 251, maternal depression and BPD symptoms were examined as predictors of child problem behaviours at 2.5 years.
ResultsChild problem behaviours were predicted by a high maternal depression trajectory prior to the inclusion of BPD symptoms. This association was no longer significant after the introduction of BPD symptoms.
ConclusionsRisks for child problem behaviours currently attributed to maternal depression may arise from more persistent and pervasive difficulties found in borderline personality dysfunction.
Contributor affiliations
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- By Frank Andrasik, Melissa R. Andrews, Ana Inés Ansaldo, Evangelos G. Antzoulatos, Lianhua Bai, Ellen Barrett, Linamara Battistella, Nicolas Bayle, Michael S. Beattie, Peter J. Beek, Serafin Beer, Heinrich Binder, Claire Bindschaedler, Sarah Blanton, Tasia Bobish, Michael L. Boninger, Joseph F. Bonner, Chadwick B. Boulay, Vanessa S. Boyce, Anna-Katharine Brem, Jacqueline C. Bresnahan, Floor E. Buma, Mary Bartlett Bunge, John H. Byrne, Jeffrey R. Capadona, Stefano F. Cappa, Diana D. Cardenas, Leeanne M. Carey, S. Thomas Carmichael, Glauco A. P. Caurin, Pablo Celnik, Kimberly M. Christian, Stephanie Clarke, Leonardo G. Cohen, Adriana B. Conforto, Rory A. Cooper, Rosemarie Cooper, Steven C. Cramer, Armin Curt, Mark D’Esposito, Matthew B. Dalva, Gavriel David, Brandon Delia, Wenbin Deng, Volker Dietz, Bruce H. Dobkin, Marco Domeniconi, Edith Durand, Tracey Vause Earland, Georg Ebersbach, Jonathan J. Evans, James W. Fawcett, Uri Feintuch, Toby A. Ferguson, Marie T. Filbin, Diasinou Fioravante, Itzhak Fischer, Agnes Floel, Herta Flor, Karim Fouad, Richard S. J. Frackowiak, Peter H. Gorman, Thomas W. Gould, Jean-Michel Gracies, Amparo Gutierrez, Kurt Haas, C.D. Hall, Hans-Peter Hartung, Zhigang He, Jordan Hecker, Susan J. Herdman, Seth Herman, Leigh R. Hochberg, Ahmet Höke, Fay B. Horak, Jared C. Horvath, Richard L. Huganir, Friedhelm C. Hummel, Beata Jarosiewicz, Frances E. Jensen, Michael Jöbges, Larry M. Jordan, Jon H. Kaas, Andres M. Kanner, Noomi Katz, Matthew S. Kayser, Annmarie Kelleher, Gerd Kempermann, Timothy E. Kennedy, Jürg Kesselring, Fary Khan, Rachel Kizony, Jeffery D. Kocsis, Boudewijn J. Kollen, Hubertus Köller, John W. Krakauer, Hermano I. Krebs, Gert Kwakkel, Bradley Lang, Catherine E. Lang, Helmar C. Lehmann, Angelo C. Lepore, Glenn S. Le Prell, Mindy F. Levin, Joel M. Levine, David A. Low, Marilyn MacKay-Lyons, Jeffrey D. Macklis, Margaret Mak, Francine Malouin, William C. Mann, Paul D. Marasco, Christopher J. Mathias, Laura McClure, Jan Mehrholz, Lorne M. Mendell, Robert H. Miller, Carol Milligan, Beth Mineo, Simon W. Moore, Jennifer Morgan, Charbel E-H. Moussa, Martin Munz, Randolph J. Nudo, Joseph J. Pancrazio, Theresa Pape, Alvaro Pascual-Leone, Kristin M. Pearson-Fuhrhop, P. Hunter Peckham, Tamara L. Pelleshi, Catherine Verrier Piersol, Thomas Platz, Marcus Pohl, Dejan B. Popović, Andrew M. Poulos, Maulik Purohit, Hui-Xin Qi, Debbie Rand, Mahendra S. Rao, Josef P. Rauschecker, Aimee Reiss, Carol L. Richards, Keith M. Robinson, Melvyn Roerdink, John C. Rosenbek, Serge Rossignol, Edward S. Ruthazer, Arash Sahraie, Krishnankutty Sathian, Marc H. Schieber, Brian J. Schmidt, Michael E. Selzer, Mijail D. Serruya, Himanshu Sharma, Michael Shifman, Jerry Silver, Thomas Sinkjær, George M. Smith, Young-Jin Son, Tim Spencer, John D. Steeves, Oswald Steward, Sheela Stuart, Austin J. Sumner, Chin Lik Tan, Robert W. Teasell, Gareth Thomas, Aiko K. Thompson, Richard F. Thompson, Wesley J. Thompson, Erika Timar, Ceri T. Trevethan, Christopher Trimby, Gary R. Turner, Mark H. Tuszynski, Erna A. van Niekerk, Ricardo Viana, Difei Wang, Anthony B. Ward, Nick S. Ward, Stephen G. Waxman, Patrice L. Weiss, Jörg Wissel, Steven L. Wolf, Jonathan R. Wolpaw, Sharon Wood-Dauphinee, Ross D. Zafonte, Binhai Zheng, Richard D. Zorowitz
- Edited by Michael Selzer, Stephanie Clarke, Leonardo Cohen, Gert Kwakkel, Robert Miller, Case Western Reserve University, Ohio
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- Book:
- Textbook of Neural Repair and Rehabilitation
- Published online:
- 05 May 2014
- Print publication:
- 24 April 2014, pp ix-xvi
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Contributor affiliations
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- By Frank Andrasik, Melissa R. Andrews, Ana Inés Ansaldo, Evangelos G. Antzoulatos, Lianhua Bai, Ellen Barrett, Linamara Battistella, Nicolas Bayle, Michael S. Beattie, Peter J. Beek, Serafin Beer, Heinrich Binder, Claire Bindschaedler, Sarah Blanton, Tasia Bobish, Michael L. Boninger, Joseph F. Bonner, Chadwick B. Boulay, Vanessa S. Boyce, Anna-Katharine Brem, Jacqueline C. Bresnahan, Floor E. Buma, Mary Bartlett Bunge, John H. Byrne, Jeffrey R. Capadona, Stefano F. Cappa, Diana D. Cardenas, Leeanne M. Carey, S. Thomas Carmichael, Glauco A. P. Caurin, Pablo Celnik, Kimberly M. Christian, Stephanie Clarke, Leonardo G. Cohen, Adriana B. Conforto, Rory A. Cooper, Rosemarie Cooper, Steven C. Cramer, Armin Curt, Mark D’Esposito, Matthew B. Dalva, Gavriel David, Brandon Delia, Wenbin Deng, Volker Dietz, Bruce H. Dobkin, Marco Domeniconi, Edith Durand, Tracey Vause Earland, Georg Ebersbach, Jonathan J. Evans, James W. Fawcett, Uri Feintuch, Toby A. Ferguson, Marie T. Filbin, Diasinou Fioravante, Itzhak Fischer, Agnes Floel, Herta Flor, Karim Fouad, Richard S. J. Frackowiak, Peter H. Gorman, Thomas W. Gould, Jean-Michel Gracies, Amparo Gutierrez, Kurt Haas, C.D. Hall, Hans-Peter Hartung, Zhigang He, Jordan Hecker, Susan J. Herdman, Seth Herman, Leigh R. Hochberg, Ahmet Höke, Fay B. Horak, Jared C. Horvath, Richard L. Huganir, Friedhelm C. Hummel, Beata Jarosiewicz, Frances E. Jensen, Michael Jöbges, Larry M. Jordan, Jon H. Kaas, Andres M. Kanner, Noomi Katz, Matthew S. Kayser, Annmarie Kelleher, Gerd Kempermann, Timothy E. Kennedy, Jürg Kesselring, Fary Khan, Rachel Kizony, Jeffery D. Kocsis, Boudewijn J. Kollen, Hubertus Köller, John W. Krakauer, Hermano I. Krebs, Gert Kwakkel, Bradley Lang, Catherine E. Lang, Helmar C. Lehmann, Angelo C. Lepore, Glenn S. Le Prell, Mindy F. Levin, Joel M. Levine, David A. Low, Marilyn MacKay-Lyons, Jeffrey D. Macklis, Margaret Mak, Francine Malouin, William C. Mann, Paul D. Marasco, Christopher J. Mathias, Laura McClure, Jan Mehrholz, Lorne M. Mendell, Robert H. Miller, Carol Milligan, Beth Mineo, Simon W. Moore, Jennifer Morgan, Charbel E-H. Moussa, Martin Munz, Randolph J. Nudo, Joseph J. Pancrazio, Theresa Pape, Alvaro Pascual-Leone, Kristin M. Pearson-Fuhrhop, P. Hunter Peckham, Tamara L. Pelleshi, Catherine Verrier Piersol, Thomas Platz, Marcus Pohl, Dejan B. Popović, Andrew M. Poulos, Maulik Purohit, Hui-Xin Qi, Debbie Rand, Mahendra S. Rao, Josef P. Rauschecker, Aimee Reiss, Carol L. Richards, Keith M. Robinson, Melvyn Roerdink, John C. Rosenbek, Serge Rossignol, Edward S. Ruthazer, Arash Sahraie, Krishnankutty Sathian, Marc H. Schieber, Brian J. Schmidt, Michael E. Selzer, Mijail D. Serruya, Himanshu Sharma, Michael Shifman, Jerry Silver, Thomas Sinkjær, George M. Smith, Young-Jin Son, Tim Spencer, John D. Steeves, Oswald Steward, Sheela Stuart, Austin J. Sumner, Chin Lik Tan, Robert W. Teasell, Gareth Thomas, Aiko K. Thompson, Richard F. Thompson, Wesley J. Thompson, Erika Timar, Ceri T. Trevethan, Christopher Trimby, Gary R. Turner, Mark H. Tuszynski, Erna A. van Niekerk, Ricardo Viana, Difei Wang, Anthony B. Ward, Nick S. Ward, Stephen G. Waxman, Patrice L. Weiss, Jörg Wissel, Steven L. Wolf, Jonathan R. Wolpaw, Sharon Wood-Dauphinee, Ross D. Zafonte, Binhai Zheng, Richard D. Zorowitz
- Edited by Michael E. Selzer, Stephanie Clarke, Leonardo G. Cohen, Gert Kwakkel, Robert H. Miller, Case Western Reserve University, Ohio
-
- Book:
- Textbook of Neural Repair and Rehabilitation
- Published online:
- 05 June 2014
- Print publication:
- 24 April 2014, pp ix-xvi
-
- Chapter
- Export citation