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Ability, chance, and ambiguity aversion: Revisiting the competence hypothesis
- William M. P. Klein, Jennifer L. Cerully, Matthew M. Monin, Don A. Moore
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- Journal:
- Judgment and Decision Making / Volume 5 / Issue 3 / June 2010
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 01 January 2023, pp. 192-199
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Individuals are often ambiguity-averse when choosing among purely chance-based prospects (Ellsberg, 1961). However, they often prefer apparently ambiguous ability-based prospects to unambiguous chance-based prospects. According to the competence hypothesis (Heath & Tversky, 1991), this pattern derives from favorable perceptions of one’s competence. In most past tests of the competence hypothesis, ambiguity is confounded with personal controllability and the source of the ambiguity (e.g., chance vs. missing information). We unconfound these factors in three experiments and find strong evidence for independent effects of both ambiguity aversion and competence. In Experiment 1, participants preferred an unambiguous chance-based option to an ambiguous ability-based option when the ambiguity derived from chance rather than uncertainty about one’s own ability. In Experiments 2 and 3, which used different operationalizations of ambiguity in choice contexts with actual consequences, participants attempted to avoid both ambiguity and chance insofar as they could. These findings support and extend the competence hypothesis by demonstrating ambiguity aversion independent of personal controllability and source of ambiguity.
20 - Moving from Theoretical Principles to Intervention Strategies: Applying the Experimental Medicine Approach
- from Part II - Methods and Processes of Behavior Change: Intervention Development, Application, and Translation
- Edited by Martin S. Hagger, Linda D. Cameron, Kyra Hamilton, Griffith University, Nelli Hankonen, University of Helsinki, Taru Lintunen, University of Jyväskylä
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- Book:
- The Handbook of Behavior Change
- Published online:
- 04 July 2020
- Print publication:
- 23 July 2020, pp 285-299
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Summary
Efforts to address the major health, environmental, and social threats that can be found across the globe rely on changes in human behavior. Yet identifying effective and efficient ways to change behavior remains a vexing challenge. To meet this need, investigators need to design and evaluate behavioral intervention strategies in a manner that affords the creation of evidence-based guidelines that specify not only whether interventions work but also how and under what conditions. In this chapter, the design and testing of interventions are situated within the experimental medicine approach. This approach leverages the strength of the experimental method to test how behavior change intervention strategies work and to identify the conditions under which they operate effectively. Moreover, it organizes how investigators specify the questions that underlie the study of behavior change interventions and requires them to articulate precisely what intervention strategy they are using, how they think the strategy operates, and the outcomes it generates. Through the systematic use of this approach, evidence will emerge that addresses practitioners’ prevailing concerns directly – what intervention strategy is the most effective and efficient way to address the problem at hand. This chapter provides an overview of how to implement the experimental medicine approach, describes its key features, and addresses the importance of precision and, finally, considers this approach within a broader set of initiatives that have emerged to support a programmatic approach to the design, evaluation, and implementation of behavior change interventions.
Fostering Collaborative Synthetic Research in Archaeology
- Jeffrey H. Altschul, Keith W. Kintigh, Terry H. Klein, William H. Doelle, Kelley A. Hays-Gilpin, Sarah A. Herr, Timothy A. Kohler, Barbara J. Mills, Lindsay M. Montgomery, Margaret C. Nelson, Scott G. Ortman, John N. Parker, Matthew A. Peeples, Jeremy A. Sabloff
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- Journal:
- Advances in Archaeological Practice / Volume 6 / Issue 1 / February 2018
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 07 February 2018, pp. 19-29
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While our fascination with understanding the past is sufficient to warrant an increased focus on synthesis, solutions to important problems facing modern society require understandings based on data that only archaeology can provide. Yet, even as we use public monies to collect ever-greater amounts of data, modes of research that can stimulate emergent understandings of human behavior have lagged behind. Consequently, a substantial amount of archaeological inference remains at the level of the individual project. We can more effectively leverage these data and advance our understandings of the past in ways that contribute to solutions to contemporary problems if we adapt the model pioneered by the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis to foster synthetic collaborative research in archaeology. We propose the creation of the Coalition for Archaeological Synthesis coordinated through a U.S.-based National Center for Archaeological Synthesis. The coalition will be composed of established public and private organizations that provide essential scholarly, cultural heritage, computational, educational, and public engagement infrastructure. The center would seek and administer funding to support collaborative analysis and synthesis projects executed through coalition partners. This innovative structure will enable the discipline to address key challenges facing society through evidentially based, collaborative synthetic research.
Contributors
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- By Mitchell Aboulafia, Frederick Adams, Marilyn McCord Adams, Robert M. Adams, Laird Addis, James W. Allard, David Allison, William P. Alston, Karl Ameriks, C. Anthony Anderson, David Leech Anderson, Lanier Anderson, Roger Ariew, David Armstrong, Denis G. Arnold, E. J. Ashworth, Margaret Atherton, Robin Attfield, Bruce Aune, Edward Wilson Averill, Jody Azzouni, Kent Bach, Andrew Bailey, Lynne Rudder Baker, Thomas R. Baldwin, Jon Barwise, George Bealer, William Bechtel, Lawrence C. Becker, Mark A. Bedau, Ernst Behler, José A. Benardete, Ermanno Bencivenga, Jan Berg, Michael Bergmann, Robert L. Bernasconi, Sven Bernecker, Bernard Berofsky, Rod Bertolet, Charles J. Beyer, Christian Beyer, Joseph Bien, Joseph Bien, Peg Birmingham, Ivan Boh, James Bohman, Daniel Bonevac, Laurence BonJour, William J. Bouwsma, Raymond D. Bradley, Myles Brand, Richard B. Brandt, Michael E. Bratman, Stephen E. Braude, Daniel Breazeale, Angela Breitenbach, Jason Bridges, David O. Brink, Gordon G. Brittan, Justin Broackes, Dan W. Brock, Aaron Bronfman, Jeffrey E. Brower, Bartosz Brozek, Anthony Brueckner, Jeffrey Bub, Lara Buchak, Otavio Bueno, Ann E. Bumpus, Robert W. Burch, John Burgess, Arthur W. Burks, Panayot Butchvarov, Robert E. Butts, Marina Bykova, Patrick Byrne, David Carr, Noël Carroll, Edward S. Casey, Victor Caston, Victor Caston, Albert Casullo, Robert L. Causey, Alan K. L. Chan, Ruth Chang, Deen K. Chatterjee, Andrew Chignell, Roderick M. Chisholm, Kelly J. Clark, E. J. Coffman, Robin Collins, Brian P. Copenhaver, John Corcoran, John Cottingham, Roger Crisp, Frederick J. Crosson, Antonio S. Cua, Phillip D. Cummins, Martin Curd, Adam Cureton, Andrew Cutrofello, Stephen Darwall, Paul Sheldon Davies, Wayne A. Davis, Timothy Joseph Day, Claudio de Almeida, Mario De Caro, Mario De Caro, John Deigh, C. F. Delaney, Daniel C. Dennett, Michael R. DePaul, Michael Detlefsen, Daniel Trent Devereux, Philip E. Devine, John M. Dillon, Martin C. Dillon, Robert DiSalle, Mary Domski, Alan Donagan, Paul Draper, Fred Dretske, Mircea Dumitru, Wilhelm Dupré, Gerald Dworkin, John Earman, Ellery Eells, Catherine Z. Elgin, Berent Enç, Ronald P. Endicott, Edward Erwin, John Etchemendy, C. Stephen Evans, Susan L. Feagin, Solomon Feferman, Richard Feldman, Arthur Fine, Maurice A. Finocchiaro, William FitzPatrick, Richard E. Flathman, Gvozden Flego, Richard Foley, Graeme Forbes, Rainer Forst, Malcolm R. Forster, Daniel Fouke, Patrick Francken, Samuel Freeman, Elizabeth Fricker, Miranda Fricker, Michael Friedman, Michael Fuerstein, Richard A. Fumerton, Alan Gabbey, Pieranna Garavaso, Daniel Garber, Jorge L. A. Garcia, Robert K. Garcia, Don Garrett, Philip Gasper, Gerald Gaus, Berys Gaut, Bernard Gert, Roger F. Gibson, Cody Gilmore, Carl Ginet, Alan H. Goldman, Alvin I. Goldman, Alfonso Gömez-Lobo, Lenn E. Goodman, Robert M. Gordon, Stefan Gosepath, Jorge J. E. Gracia, Daniel W. Graham, George A. Graham, Peter J. Graham, Richard E. Grandy, I. Grattan-Guinness, John Greco, Philip T. Grier, Nicholas Griffin, Nicholas Griffin, David A. Griffiths, Paul J. Griffiths, Stephen R. Grimm, Charles L. Griswold, Charles B. Guignon, Pete A. Y. Gunter, Dimitri Gutas, Gary Gutting, Paul Guyer, Kwame Gyekye, Oscar A. Haac, Raul Hakli, Raul Hakli, Michael Hallett, Edward C. Halper, Jean Hampton, R. James Hankinson, K. R. Hanley, Russell Hardin, Robert M. Harnish, William Harper, David Harrah, Kevin Hart, Ali Hasan, William Hasker, John Haugeland, Roger Hausheer, William Heald, Peter Heath, Richard Heck, John F. Heil, Vincent F. Hendricks, Stephen Hetherington, Francis Heylighen, Kathleen Marie Higgins, Risto Hilpinen, Harold T. Hodes, Joshua Hoffman, Alan Holland, Robert L. Holmes, Richard Holton, Brad W. Hooker, Terence E. Horgan, Tamara Horowitz, Paul Horwich, Vittorio Hösle, Paul Hoβfeld, Daniel Howard-Snyder, Frances Howard-Snyder, Anne Hudson, Deal W. Hudson, Carl A. Huffman, David L. Hull, Patricia Huntington, Thomas Hurka, Paul Hurley, Rosalind Hursthouse, Guillermo Hurtado, Ronald E. Hustwit, Sarah Hutton, Jonathan Jenkins Ichikawa, Harry A. Ide, David Ingram, Philip J. Ivanhoe, Alfred L. Ivry, Frank Jackson, Dale Jacquette, Joseph Jedwab, Richard Jeffrey, David Alan Johnson, Edward Johnson, Mark D. Jordan, Richard Joyce, Hwa Yol Jung, Robert Hillary Kane, Tomis Kapitan, Jacquelyn Ann K. Kegley, James A. Keller, Ralph Kennedy, Sergei Khoruzhii, Jaegwon Kim, Yersu Kim, Nathan L. King, Patricia Kitcher, Peter D. Klein, E. D. Klemke, Virginia Klenk, George L. Kline, Christian Klotz, Simo Knuuttila, Joseph J. Kockelmans, Konstantin Kolenda, Sebastian Tomasz Kołodziejczyk, Isaac Kramnick, Richard Kraut, Fred Kroon, Manfred Kuehn, Steven T. Kuhn, Henry E. Kyburg, John Lachs, Jennifer Lackey, Stephen E. Lahey, Andrea Lavazza, Thomas H. Leahey, Joo Heung Lee, Keith Lehrer, Dorothy Leland, Noah M. Lemos, Ernest LePore, Sarah-Jane Leslie, Isaac Levi, Andrew Levine, Alan E. Lewis, Daniel E. Little, Shu-hsien Liu, Shu-hsien Liu, Alan K. L. Chan, Brian Loar, Lawrence B. Lombard, John Longeway, Dominic McIver Lopes, Michael J. Loux, E. J. Lowe, Steven Luper, Eugene C. Luschei, William G. Lycan, David Lyons, David Macarthur, Danielle Macbeth, Scott MacDonald, Jacob L. Mackey, Louis H. Mackey, Penelope Mackie, Edward H. Madden, Penelope Maddy, G. B. Madison, Bernd Magnus, Pekka Mäkelä, Rudolf A. Makkreel, David Manley, William E. Mann (W.E.M.), Vladimir Marchenkov, Peter Markie, Jean-Pierre Marquis, Ausonio Marras, Mike W. Martin, A. P. Martinich, William L. McBride, David McCabe, Storrs McCall, Hugh J. McCann, Robert N. McCauley, John J. McDermott, Sarah McGrath, Ralph McInerny, Daniel J. McKaughan, Thomas McKay, Michael McKinsey, Brian P. McLaughlin, Ernan McMullin, Anthonie Meijers, Jack W. Meiland, William Jason Melanson, Alfred R. Mele, Joseph R. Mendola, Christopher Menzel, Michael J. Meyer, Christian B. Miller, David W. Miller, Peter Millican, Robert N. Minor, Phillip Mitsis, James A. Montmarquet, Michael S. Moore, Tim Moore, Benjamin Morison, Donald R. Morrison, Stephen J. Morse, Paul K. Moser, Alexander P. D. Mourelatos, Ian Mueller, James Bernard Murphy, Mark C. Murphy, Steven Nadler, Jan Narveson, Alan Nelson, Jerome Neu, Samuel Newlands, Kai Nielsen, Ilkka Niiniluoto, Carlos G. Noreña, Calvin G. Normore, David Fate Norton, Nikolaj Nottelmann, Donald Nute, David S. Oderberg, Steve Odin, Michael O’Rourke, Willard G. Oxtoby, Heinz Paetzold, George S. Pappas, Anthony J. Parel, Lydia Patton, R. P. Peerenboom, Francis Jeffry Pelletier, Adriaan T. Peperzak, Derk Pereboom, Jaroslav Peregrin, Glen Pettigrove, Philip Pettit, Edmund L. Pincoffs, Andrew Pinsent, Robert B. Pippin, Alvin Plantinga, Louis P. Pojman, Richard H. Popkin, John F. Post, Carl J. Posy, William J. Prior, Richard Purtill, Michael Quante, Philip L. Quinn, Philip L. Quinn, Elizabeth S. Radcliffe, Diana Raffman, Gerard Raulet, Stephen L. Read, Andrews Reath, Andrew Reisner, Nicholas Rescher, Henry S. Richardson, Robert C. Richardson, Thomas Ricketts, Wayne D. Riggs, Mark Roberts, Robert C. Roberts, Luke Robinson, Alexander Rosenberg, Gary Rosenkranz, Bernice Glatzer Rosenthal, Adina L. Roskies, William L. Rowe, T. M. Rudavsky, Michael Ruse, Bruce Russell, Lilly-Marlene Russow, Dan Ryder, R. M. Sainsbury, Joseph Salerno, Nathan Salmon, Wesley C. Salmon, Constantine Sandis, David H. Sanford, Marco Santambrogio, David Sapire, Ruth A. Saunders, Geoffrey Sayre-McCord, Charles Sayward, James P. Scanlan, Richard Schacht, Tamar Schapiro, Frederick F. Schmitt, Jerome B. Schneewind, Calvin O. Schrag, Alan D. Schrift, George F. Schumm, Jean-Loup Seban, David N. Sedley, Kenneth Seeskin, Krister Segerberg, Charlene Haddock Seigfried, Dennis M. Senchuk, James F. Sennett, William Lad Sessions, Stewart Shapiro, Tommie Shelby, Donald W. Sherburne, Christopher Shields, Roger A. Shiner, Sydney Shoemaker, Robert K. Shope, Kwong-loi Shun, Wilfried Sieg, A. John Simmons, Robert L. Simon, Marcus G. Singer, Georgette Sinkler, Walter Sinnott-Armstrong, Matti T. Sintonen, Lawrence Sklar, Brian Skyrms, Robert C. Sleigh, Michael Anthony Slote, Hans Sluga, Barry Smith, Michael Smith, Robin Smith, Robert Sokolowski, Robert C. Solomon, Marta Soniewicka, Philip Soper, Ernest Sosa, Nicholas Southwood, Paul Vincent Spade, T. L. S. Sprigge, Eric O. Springsted, George J. Stack, Rebecca Stangl, Jason Stanley, Florian Steinberger, Sören Stenlund, Christopher Stephens, James P. Sterba, Josef Stern, Matthias Steup, M. A. Stewart, Leopold Stubenberg, Edith Dudley Sulla, Frederick Suppe, Jere Paul Surber, David George Sussman, Sigrún Svavarsdóttir, Zeno G. Swijtink, Richard Swinburne, Charles C. Taliaferro, Robert B. Talisse, John Tasioulas, Paul Teller, Larry S. Temkin, Mark Textor, H. S. Thayer, Peter Thielke, Alan Thomas, Amie L. Thomasson, Katherine Thomson-Jones, Joshua C. Thurow, Vzalerie Tiberius, Terrence N. Tice, Paul Tidman, Mark C. Timmons, William Tolhurst, James E. Tomberlin, Rosemarie Tong, Lawrence Torcello, Kelly Trogdon, J. D. Trout, Robert E. Tully, Raimo Tuomela, John Turri, Martin M. Tweedale, Thomas Uebel, Jennifer Uleman, James Van Cleve, Harry van der Linden, Peter van Inwagen, Bryan W. Van Norden, René van Woudenberg, Donald Phillip Verene, Samantha Vice, Thomas Vinci, Donald Wayne Viney, Barbara Von Eckardt, Peter B. M. Vranas, Steven J. Wagner, William J. Wainwright, Paul E. Walker, Robert E. Wall, Craig Walton, Douglas Walton, Eric Watkins, Richard A. Watson, Michael V. Wedin, Rudolph H. Weingartner, Paul Weirich, Paul J. Weithman, Carl Wellman, Howard Wettstein, Samuel C. Wheeler, Stephen A. White, Jennifer Whiting, Edward R. Wierenga, Michael Williams, Fred Wilson, W. Kent Wilson, Kenneth P. Winkler, John F. Wippel, Jan Woleński, Allan B. Wolter, Nicholas P. Wolterstorff, Rega Wood, W. Jay Wood, Paul Woodruff, Alison Wylie, Gideon Yaffe, Takashi Yagisawa, Yutaka Yamamoto, Keith E. Yandell, Xiaomei Yang, Dean Zimmerman, Günter Zoller, Catherine Zuckert, Michael Zuckert, Jack A. Zupko (J.A.Z.)
- Edited by Robert Audi, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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- Book:
- The Cambridge Dictionary of Philosophy
- Published online:
- 05 August 2015
- Print publication:
- 27 April 2015, pp ix-xxx
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- By Lenard A. Adler, Pinky Agarwal, Rehan Ahmed, Jagga Rao Alluri, Fawaz Al-Mufti, Samuel Alperin, Michael Amoashiy, Michael Andary, David J. Anschel, Padmaja Aradhya, Vandana Aspen, Esther Baldinger, Jee Bang, George D. Baquis, John J. Barry, Jason J. S. Barton, Julius Bazan, Amanda R. Bedford, Marlene Behrmann, Lourdes Bello-Espinosa, Ajay Berdia, Alan R. Berger, Mark Beyer, Don C. Bienfang, Kevin M. Biglan, Thomas M. Boes, Paul W. Brazis, Jonathan L. Brisman, Jeffrey A. Brown, Scott E. Brown, Ryan R. Byrne, Rina Caprarella, Casey A. Chamberlain, Wan-Tsu W. Chang, Grace M. Charles, Jasvinder Chawla, David Clark, Todd J. Cohen, Joe Colombo, Howard Crystal, Vladimir Dadashev, Sarita B. Dave, Jean Robert Desrouleaux, Richard L. Doty, Robert Duarte, Jeffrey S. Durmer, Christyn M. Edmundson, Eric R. Eggenberger, Steven Ender, Noam Epstein, Alberto J. Espay, Alan B. Ettinger, Niloofar (Nelly) Faghani, Amtul Farheen, Edward Firouztale, Rod Foroozan, Anne L. Foundas, David Elliot Friedman, Deborah I. Friedman, Steven J. Frucht, Oded Gerber, Tal Gilboa, Martin Gizzi, Teneille G. Gofton, Louis J. Goodrich, Malcolm H. Gottesman, Varda Gross-Tsur, Deepak Grover, David A. Gudis, John J. Halperin, Maxim D. Hammer, Andrew R. Harrison, L. Anne Hayman, Galen V. Henderson, Steven Herskovitz, Caitlin Hoffman, Laryssa A. Huryn, Andres M. Kanner, Gary P. Kaplan, Bashar Katirji, Kenneth R. Kaufman, Annie Killoran, Nina Kirz, Gad E. Klein, Danielle G. Koby, Christopher P. Kogut, W. Curt LaFrance, Patrick J.M. Lavin, Susan W. Law, James L. Levenson, Richard B. Lipton, Glenn Lopate, Daniel J. Luciano, Reema Maindiratta, Robert M. Mallery, Georgios Manousakis, Alan Mazurek, Luis J. Mejico, Dragana Micic, Ali Mokhtarzadeh, Walter J. Molofsky, Heather E. Moss, Mark L. Moster, Manpreet Multani, Siddhartha Nadkarni, George C. Newman, Rolla Nuoman, Paul A. Nyquist, Gaia Donata Oggioni, Odi Oguh, Denis Ostrovskiy, Kristina Y. Pao, Juwen Park, Anastas F. Pass, Victoria S. Pelak, Jeffrey Peterson, John Pile-Spellman, Misha L. Pless, Gregory M. Pontone, Aparna M. Prabhu, Michael T. Pulley, Philip Ragone, Prajwal Rajappa, Venkat Ramani, Sindhu Ramchandren, Ritesh A. Ramdhani, Ramses Ribot, Heidi D. Riney, Diana Rojas-Soto, Michael Ronthal, Daniel M. Rosenbaum, David B. Rosenfield, Durga Roy, Michael J. Ruckenstein, Max C. Rudansky, Eva Sahay, Friedhelm Sandbrink, Jade S. Schiffman, Angela Scicutella, Maroun T. Semaan, Robert C. Sergott, Aashit K. Shah, David M. Shaw, Amit M. Shelat, Claire A. Sheldon, Anant M. Shenoy, Yelizaveta Sher, Jessica A. Shields, Tanya Simuni, Rajpaul Singh, Eric E. Smouha, David Solomon, Mehri Songhorian, Steven A. Sparr, Egilius L. H. Spierings, Eve G. Spratt, Beth Stein, S.H. Subramony, Rosa Ana Tang, Cara Tannenbaum, Hakan Tekeli, Amanda J. Thompson, Michael J. Thorpy, Matthew J. Thurtell, Pedro J. Torrico, Ira M. Turner, Scott Uretsky, Ruth H. Walker, Deborah M. Weisbrot, Michael A. Williams, Jacques Winter, Randall J. Wright, Jay Elliot Yasen, Shicong Ye, G. Bryan Young, Huiying Yu, Ryan J. Zehnder
- Edited by Alan B. Ettinger, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, New York, Deborah M. Weisbrot, State University of New York, Stony Brook
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- Book:
- Neurologic Differential Diagnosis
- Published online:
- 05 June 2014
- Print publication:
- 17 April 2014, pp xi-xx
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Chapter 3 - Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment
- from Section III
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- By Sonia I. Seneviratne, Neville Nicholls, David Easterling, Clare M. Goodess, Shinjiro Kanae, James Kossin, Yali Luo, Jose Marengo, Kathleen McInnes, Mohammad Rahimi, Markus Reichstein, Asgeir Sorteberg, Carolina Vera, Xuebin Zhang, Matilde Rusticucci, Vladimir Semenov, Lisa V. Alexander, Simon Allen, Gerardo Benito, Tereza Cavazos, John Clague, Declan Conway, Paul M. Della-Marta, Markus Gerber, Sunling Gong, B. N. Goswami, Mark Hemer, Christian Huggel, Bart van den Hurk, Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Akio Kitoh, Albert M.G. Klein Tank, Guilong Li, Simon Mason, William McGuire, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Boris Orlowsky, Sharon Smith, Wassila Thiaw, Adonis Velegrakis, Pascal Yiou, Tingjun Zhang, Tianjun Zhou, Francis W. Zwiers
- Edited by Christopher B. Field, Vicente Barros, Thomas F. Stocker, Qin Dahe
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- Book:
- Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
- Published online:
- 05 August 2012
- Print publication:
- 28 May 2012, pp 109-230
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Summary
Executive Summary
This chapter addresses changes in weather and climate events relevant to extreme impacts and disasters. An extreme (weather or climate) event is generally defined as the occurrence of a value of a weather or climate variable above (or below) a threshold value near the upper (or lower) ends (‘tails’) of the range of observed values of the variable. Some climate extremes (e.g., droughts, floods) may be the result of an accumulation of weather or climate events that are, individually, not extreme themselves (though their accumulation is extreme). As well, weather or climate events, even if not extreme in a statistical sense, can still lead to extreme conditions or impacts, either by crossing a critical threshold in a social, ecological, or physical system, or by occurring simultaneously with other events. A weather system such as a tropical cyclone can have an extreme impact, depending on where and when it approaches landfall, even if the specific cyclone is not extreme relative to other tropical cyclones. Conversely, not all extremes necessarily lead to serious impacts. [3.1]
Many weather and climate extremes are the result of natural climate variability (including phenomena such as El Niño), and natural decadal or multi-decadal variations in the climate provide the backdrop for anthropogenic climate changes. Even if there were no anthropogenic changes in climate, a wide variety of natural weather and climate extremes would still occur. [3.1]
A changing climate leads to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of weather and climate extremes, and can result in unprecedented extremes. Changes in extremes can also be directly related to changes in mean climate, because mean future conditions in some variables are projected to lie within the tails of present-day conditions. Nevertheless, changes in extremes of a climate or weather variable are not always related in a simple way to changes in the mean of the same variable, and in some cases can be of opposite sign to a change in the mean of the variable. Changes in phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation or monsoons could affect the frequency and intensity of extremes in several regions simultaneously. [3.1]
Contributors
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- By Yasir Abu-Omar, Matthew E. Atkins, Joseph E. Arrowsmith, Alan Ashworth, Rubia Baldassarri, Craig R. Bailey, David J. Barron, Christiana C. Burt, David Cardone, Coralie Carle, Jose Coddens, Alan M. Cohen, Simon Colah, Sarah Conolly, David J. Daly, Helen M. Daly, Stefan G. De Hert, Ravi J. De Silva, Mark Dougherty, John J. Dunning, Maros Elsik, Betsy Evans, Florian Falter, Nigel Farnum, Jens Fassl, Juliet E. Foweraker, Simon P. Fynn, Andrew I. Gardner, Margaret I. Gillham, Martin J. Goddard, Maximilien J. Gourdin, Jon Graham, Stephen J. Gray, Cameron Graydon, Fabio Guarracino, Roger M. O. Hall, Michael Haney, Charles W. Hogue, Ben W. Howes, Bevan Hughes, Siân I. Jaggar, David P. Jenkins, Jörn Karhausen, Todd Kiefer, Khalid Khan, Andrew A. Klein, John D. Kneeshaw, Andrew C. Knowles, Catherine V. Koffel, R. Clive Landis, Trevor W. R. Lee, Clive J. Lewis, Jonathan H. Mackay, Amod Manocha, Jonathan B. Mark, Sarah Marstin, William T. McBride, Kenneth H. McKinlay, Alan F. Merry, Berend Mets, Britta Millhoff, Kevin P. Morris, Samer A. M. Nashef, Andrew Neitzel, Stephane Noble, Rabi Panigrahi, Barbora Parizkova, J. M. Tom Pierce, Mihai V. Podgoreanu, Hans-Joachim Priebe, Paul Quinton, C. Ramaswamy Rajamohan, Doris M. Rassl, Tom Rawlings, Fiona E. Reynolds, Andrew J. Richardson, David Riddington, Andrew Roscoe, Paul H. M. Sadleir, Ving Yuen See Tho, Herve Schlotterbeck, Maura Screaton, Shitalkumar Shah, Harjot Singh, Jon H. Smith, M. L. Srikanth, Yeewei W. Teo, Kamen P. Valchanov, Jean-Pierre van Besouw, Isabeau A. Walker, Stephen T. Webb, Francis C. Wells, John Whitbread, Charles Willmott, Patrick Wouters
- Edited by Jonathan H. Mackay, Joseph E. Arrowsmith
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- Book:
- Core Topics in Cardiac Anesthesia
- Published online:
- 05 April 2012
- Print publication:
- 15 March 2012, pp x-xiii
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- By Graeme J.M. Alexander, Heung Bae Kim, Michael Burch, Andrew J. Butler, Tanveer Butt, Roy Calne, Edward Cantu, Robert B. Colvin, Paul Corris, Charles Crawley, Hiroshi Date, Francis L. Delmonico, Bimalangshu R. Dey, Kate Drummond, John Dunning, John D. Firth, John Forsythe, Simon M. Gabe, Robert S. Gaston, William Gelson, Paul Gibbs, Alex Gimson, Leo C. Ginns, Samuel Goldfarb, Ryoichi Goto, Walter K. Graham, Simon J.F. Harper, Koji Hashimoto, David G. Healy, Hassan N. Ibrahim, David Ip, Fadi G. Issa, Neville V. Jamieson, David P. Jenkins, Dixon B. Kaufman, Kiran K. Khush, Heung Bae Kim, Andrew A. Klein, John Klinck, Camille Nelson Kotton, Vineeta Kumar, Yael B. Kushner, D. Frank. P. Larkin, Clive J. Lewis, Yvonne H. Luo, Richard S. Luskin, Ernest I. Mandel, James F. Markmann, Lorna Marson, Arthur J. Matas, Mandeep R. Mehra, Stephen J. Middleton, Giorgina Mieli-Vergani, Charles Miller, Sharon Mulroy, Faruk Özalp, Can Ozturk, Jayan Parameshwar, J.S. Parmar, Hari K. Parthasarathy, Nick Pritchard, Cristiano Quintini, Axel O. Rahmel, Chris J. Rudge, Stephan V.B. Schueler, Maria Siemionow, Jacob Simmonds, Peter Slinger, Thomas R. Spitzer, Stuart C. Sweet, Nina E. Tolkoff-Rubin, Steven S.L. Tsui, Khashayar Vakili, R.V. Venkateswaran, Hector Vilca-Melendez, Vladimir Vinarsky, Kathryn J. Wood, Heidi Yeh, David W. Zaas, Jonathan G. Zaroff
- Edited by Andrew A. Klein, Clive J. Lewis, Joren C. Madsen
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- Book:
- Organ Transplantation
- Published online:
- 07 September 2011
- Print publication:
- 11 August 2011, pp vii-x
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- By Eileen M. Bulger, Maxime Cannesson, Richard P. Dutton, Robert A. Dyer, Tong J. Gan, Per-Olof Grände, Philip E. Greilich, Oliver Habler, Robert G. Hahn, Hengo Haljamäe, Kathrine Holte, Jan Jakobsson, Michael F.M. James, William E. Johnston, Yifat Klein, Idit Matot, Timothy E. Miller, Isabelle Murat, Johan Persson, Niels H. Secher, Palle Toft, Else Tønnesen, van der Linden Philippe, Johannes J. van Lieshout
- Edited by Robert G. Hahn, Linköpings Universitet, Sweden
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- Book:
- Clinical Fluid Therapy in the Perioperative Setting
- Published online:
- 05 August 2011
- Print publication:
- 04 August 2011, pp vi-viii
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- By Jane E. Adcock, Yahya Aghakhani, A. Anand, Eva Andermann, Frederick Andermann, Alexis Arzimanoglou, Sandrine Aubert, Nadia Bahi-Buisson, Carman Barba, Agatino Battaglia, Geneviève Bernard, Nadir E. Bharucha, Laurence A. Bindoff, William Bingaman, Francesca Bisulli, Thomas P. Bleck, Stewart G. Boyd, Andreas Brunklaus, Harry Bulstrode, Jorge G. Burneo, Laura Canafoglia, Laura Cantonetti, Roberto H. Caraballo, Fernando Cendes, Kevin E. Chapman, Patrick Chauvel, Richard F. M. Chin, H. T. Chong, Fahmida A. Chowdhury, Catherine J. Chu-Shore, Rolando Cimaz, Andrew J. Cole, Bernard Dan, Geoffrey Dean, Alessio De Ciantis, Fernando De Paolis, Rolando F. Del Maestro, Irissa M. Devine, Carlo Di Bonaventura, Concezio Di Rocco, Henry B. Dinsdale, Maria Alice Donati, François Dubeau, Michael Duchowny, Olivier Dulac, Monika Eisermann, Brent Elliott, Bernt A. Engelsen, Kevin Farrell, Natalio Fejerman, Rosalie E. Ferner, Silvana Franceschetti, Robert Friedlander, Antonio Gambardella, Hector H. Garcia, Serena Gasperini, Lorenzo Genitori, Gioia Gioi, Flavio Giordano, Leif Gjerstad, Daniel G. Glaze, Howard P. Goodkin, Sidney M. Gospe, Andrea Grassi, William P. Gray, Renzo Guerrini, Marie-Christine Guiot, William Harkness, Andrew G. Herzog, Linda Huh, Margaret J. Jackson, Thomas S. Jacques, Anna C. Jansen, Sigmund Jenssen, Michael R. Johnson, Dorothy Jones-Davis, Reetta Kälviäinen, Peter W. Kaplan, John F. Kerrigan, Autumn Marie Klein, Matthias Koepp, Edwin H. Kolodny, Kandan Kulandaivel, Ruben I. Kuzniecky, Ahmed Lary, Yolanda Lau, Anna-Elina Lehesjoki, Maria K. Lehtinen, Holger Lerche, Michael P. T. Lunn, Snezana Maljevic, Mark R. Manford, Carla Marini, Bindu Menon, Giulia Milioli, Eli M. Mizrahi, Manish Modi, Márcia Elisabete Morita, Manuel Murie-Fernandez, Vivek Nambiar, Lina Nashef, Vincent Navarro, Aidan Neligan, Ruth E. Nemire, Charles R. J. C. Newton, John O'Donavan, Hirokazu Oguni, Teiichi Onuma, Andre Palmini, Eleni Panagiotakaki, Pasquale Parisi, Elena Parrini, Liborio Parrino, Ignacio Pascual-Castroviejo, M. Scott Perry, Perrine Plouin, Charles E. Polkey, Suresh S. Pujar, Karthik Rajasekaran, R. Eugene Ramsey, Rahul Rathakrishnan, Roberta H. Raven, Guy M. Rémillard, David Rosenblatt, M. Elizabeth Ross, Abdulrahman Sabbagh, P. Satishchandra, Swati Sathe, Ingrid E. Scheffer, Philip A. Schwartzkroin, Rod C. Scott, Frédéric Sedel, Michelle J. Shapiro, Elliott H. Sherr, Michael Shevell, Simon D. Shorvon, Adrian M. Siegel, Gagandeep Singh, S. Sinha, Barbara Spacca, Waney Squier, Carl E. Stafstrom, Bernhard J. Steinhoff, Andrea Taddio, Gianpiero Tamburrini, C. T. Tan, Raymond Y. L. Tan, Erik Taubøll, Robert W. Teasell, Mario Giovanni Terzano, Federica Teutonico, Suzanne A. Tharin, Elizabeth A. Thiele, Pierre Thomas, Paolo Tinuper, Dorothée Kasteleijn-Nolst Trenité, Sumeet Vadera, Pierangelo Veggiotti, Jean-Pierre Vignal, J. M. Walshe, Elizabeth J. Waterhouse, David Watkins, Ruth E. Williams, Yue-Hua Zhang, Benjamin Zifkin, Sameer M. Zuberi
- Edited by Simon D. Shorvon, Frederick Andermann, Renzo Guerrini
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- Book:
- The Causes of Epilepsy
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- 05 March 2012
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- 14 April 2011, pp ix-xvi
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- By Gregory H. Adkisson, Ozan Akça, Nawar Al-Rawas, John T. Anderson, Richard M. Bednarski, Francesca Bernabè, David G. Bjoraker, Lluis Blanch, Stephan H. Böhm, Edwin A. Bowe, Philip G. Boysen, Justin C. Cahill, Ira M. Cheifetz, David C. Cone, Nancy Craig, Daniel P. Davis, John B. Downs, Ronald Dueck, Jay L. Falk, Roger Fletcher, Michael A. Frakes, Andrea Gabrielli, Thomas J. Gallagher, Geoff Gilmartin, J. S. Gravenstein, Antonino Gullo, Donna Hamel, John W. Huang, Amy V. Isenberg, Michael B. Jaffe, Michael C. K. Khoo, Robert R. Kirby, E. F. Klein, A. Joseph Layon, Umberto Lucangelo, Emilio Maldonado, Paul E. Marik, Alicia E. Meuret, Timothy E. Morey, William Muir, Joseph A. Orr, Mehmet S. Ozcan, Lucía Isabel Passoni, David A. Paulus, Yong G. Peng, Carl W. Peters, George A. Ralls, Adriana G. Scandurra, Peter W. Scherer, Gerd Schmalisch, Adam Seiver, Salvatore Silvestri, Bob Smalhout, Fernando Suarez-Sipmann, Daniel E. Supkis, John Thompson, Patrick Troy, Jonathon D. Truwit, Gerardo Tusman, Joseph Varon, Ajeet G. Vinayak, Kevin R. Ward, Marvin A. Wayne, Charles Weissman, Dafna Willner, Kai Zhao, Christian C. Zuver
- Edited by J. S. Gravenstein, University of Florida, Michael B. Jaffe, Nikolaus Gravenstein, University of Florida, David A. Paulus, University of Florida
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- Capnography
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- 05 August 2011
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- 17 March 2011, pp ix-xii
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- By Louise B. Andrew, Jane C. Ballantyne, Sadek Beloucif, David Clendenin, Maliha A. Darugar, Joanna M. Davies, Michael DeVita, Denise M. Dudzinski, Bernice Elger, Monica Escher, Joel E Frader, Kelly Fryer-Edwards, James Giordano, Allen Gustin, Rebecca M. Harris, Gerhard Höver, Steven K. Howard, Carl C. Hug, Samia Hurst, Steven Jackson, Nancy S. Jecker, Jonathan D Katz, Joseph Klein, W. Andrew Kofke, Ruth Landau, Craig D. McClain MD, Alex Mauron, Kelly N. Michelson, Cynthiane J. Morgenweck, William Notcutt, Michael Nurok, Susan K. Palmer, Joan G. Quaine, Michael A. Rie, Stanley H. Rosenbaum, David M. Rothenberg, Robert B. Schonberger, Mark D. Siegel, Jeffrey H. Silverstein, Murali Sivarajan, Karen Souter MD, Thomas Specht MD, Andrea Trescot, Gail A. Van Norman, A.M. Viens, Elizabeth K. Vig, David B. Waisel, Clarence Ward, James M. West, Richard L Wolman, Steve Yentis
- Edited by Gail A. Van Norman, University of Washington, Stephen Jackson, Stanley H. Rosenbaum, Susan K. Palmer
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- Clinical Ethics in Anesthesiology
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- 05 March 2012
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- 28 October 2010, pp xi-xiv
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- By Ashok Agarwal, Joseph P Alukal, Deborah J Anderson, Linda D Applegarth, Saleh Binsaleh, Elizabeth M Bloom, Karen E Boyle, Nancy L Brackett, Robert E Brannigan, James V Bruckner, Victor M Brugh, Ettore Caroppo, Grace M Centola, Aleksander Chudnovsky, Susan L Crockin, Fnu Deepinder, David M. Fenig, Aaron B Grotas, Matthew P. Hardy, Wayne J. G. Hellstrom, Stanton C Honig, Stuart S Howards, Keith Jarvi, Rajasingam S Jeyendran, William E Kaplan, Edward Karpman, Sanjay S Kasturi, Mohit Khera, Nancy A Klein, Dolores J Lamb, Jane M Lewis, Larry I Lipshultz, Kirk C Lo, Charles M Lynne, R. Dale McClure, Antoine A Makhlouf, Myles Margolis, Clara I. Marín-Briggiler, Randall B Meacham, Jesse N Mills, John P Mulhall, Alexander Müller, Christine Mullin, Harris M Nagler, Craig S Niederberger, Robert D Oates, Dana A Ohl, E. Charles Osterberg, Rodrigo L Pagani, Vassilios Papadopoulos, Joseph A Politch, Gail S Prins, Angela A Reese, Susan A Rothmann, Edmund S Sabanegh, Denny Sakkas, Jay I Sandlow, Richard A Schoor, Paulo C Serafini, Mark Sigman, Suresh C Sikka, Rebecca Z Sokol, Jens Sønksen, Miguel Srougi, James Stelling, Justin Tannir, Anthony J Thomas, Paul J Turek, Terry T Turner, Mónica H. Vazquez-Levin, Moshe Wald, Thomas J Walsh, Thomas M Wheeler, Daniel H Williams, Armand Zini, Barry R Zirkin
- Edited by Larry I. Lipshultz, Stuart S. Howards, University of Virginia, Craig S. Niederberger, University of Illinois, Chicago
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- Infertility in the Male
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- 19 May 2010
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- 24 September 2009, pp vii-x
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17 - Resistance of Personal Risk Perceptions to Debiasing Interventions
- from PART ONE - THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL EXTENSIONS
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- By Neil D. Weinstein, Department of Psychology Rutgers University, William M. Klein, Department of Psychology Colby College
- Edited by Thomas Gilovich, Cornell University, New York, Dale Griffin, Stanford University, California, Daniel Kahneman, Princeton University, New Jersey
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- Heuristics and Biases
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- 05 June 2012
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- 08 July 2002, pp 313-323
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Summary
Perceived susceptibility, one's belief about the likelihood of personal harm, is a key concept in many theories of health behavior (Cummings, Becker, & Maile, 1980; Weinstein, 1993). Such beliefs often turn out to be unrealistically optimistic: People show a consistent tendency to claim that they are less likely than their peers to suffer harm. This optimistic bias in relative risk has been demonstrated with several methods, various age groups, and a wide range of hazards (Weinstein, 1987). In some situations, of course, such optimism may be beneficial (Taylor & Brown, 1988). Positive illusions about the effectiveness of precautions, for example, can sustain attempts to change behavior, and underestimations of risk can protect people from anxiety when there is little they can do to reduce their vulnerability (e.g., Taylor et al., 1992). However, when health problems have not yet appeared and are controllable, a tendency to downplay one's own risk may interfere with appropriate self-protective action.
A few studies have demonstrated that informing people about their susceptibility can increase preventive action (e.g., Blalock, DeVellis, & Afifi, 1990; Wurtele, 1988), but others have been unable to alter risk perceptions (Griffeth & Rogers, 1976; Sutton & Eiser, 1990) or have produced changes too small to result in significant changes in action (Schoenbach, 1987; Siero, Kok, & Pruyn, 1984; Weinstein, Sandman, & Roberts, 1991; Wurtele & Maddux, 1987).
The studies reported here varied the way in which risk-factor information was presented in an attempt to reduce optimistic biases.
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