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Financial flows and financial structures are fueling climate instability and worsening inequities around the world. A stable future now requires urgent change including transformative financial innovations. Yet the pandemic and recent financial disruptions reveal how financial architecture designed to promote stability in times of crises exacerbates economic inequities and vulnerabilities. Recognizing the division in climate politics among those advocating for stable policies and a smooth transition and those calling for more radical, disruptive politics, this chapter reviews the critical role of financial innovations, including central banks’ monetary policies, in redirecting society toward a more just and stable future. We propose a paradigm shift to reconceptualize stability and politicization in finance and central banking for climate justice. We argue that current depoliticized perspectives on financial stability are worsening climate instability, and that finance, central banks, and their monetary policies are an underappreciated part of climate politics. Transformative climate policy to promote stability requires repoliticizing finance and financial innovations.
From its origins in ancient Mesopotamia, through the advent of coinage in ancient Greece and Rome and the invention of paper currency in medieval China, the progress of finance and money has been driven by technological developments. The great technological change of our age in relation to money centres on the creation of digital money and digital payment systems. Money in Crisis explains what the digital revolution in money is, why it matters and how its potential benefits can be realized or undermined. It explores the history, theory and evolving technologies underlying money and warns us that money is in crisis: under threat from inflation, financial instability, and digital wizardry. It discusses how modern forms of digital money (crypto, central bank digital currencies) fit into monetary history and explains the benefits and risks of recent innovations from an economic, political, social and cultural viewpoint.
This chapter deals with the history of money in ancient times. We start with ancient Mesopotamia, where fundamental value (silver and barley) was stored in temples. Clay tablets circulated openly, supporting fundamental value and contractual arrangements. Coinage in ancient Greece and Rome was a step forward in terms of ease of use but involved the risk of debasement – reduction of the content of precious metals. We describe debasement of coins from the late Roman empire to the Middle Ages, then move to China, where the first banknotes were printed in the early part of the second millennium. The use of paper in finance spread to Europe, where it became the key technology supporting the rise of banks in the late Middle Ages and the Renaissance. We describe the rise of central banks in Europe, starting from Sweden and ending with Germany and Italy. We draw several lessons from these experiences. The main one is that a successful money is a private–public partnership, where “public administration” and “private interest” combine and complement each other. The chapter ends with the birth of telecommunication in the nineteenth century and its early applications at the beginning of the twentieth century, which gave rise to radical changes in monetary technology in the subsequent period.
This chapter wraps up the arguments and delineates possible avenues ahead for central banks. Central banks may become Banks of the State, financing government deficits as they have done recently. This may imply a retreat from central bank independence. With large holdings of public securities in central bank balance sheets, the pressure to finance governments would increase. Another option is for central banks to change their job profile, becoming Banks for Everybody. This would happen if they decided to issue all-purpose retail central bank digital currencies. This would risk weakening private initiative in the payment industry, a sector where private markets have worked well recently. The third avenue is for central banks to remain Banks of the Banks, the dominant model that prevailed until the Great Financial Crisis of 2008–09. Central banks would continue to exert rigorous surveillance and use their regulatory powers to encourage further progress and foster efficiency and stability in the underlying settlement infrastructures. We express support for this line but also highlight some challenges, first and foremost the regulation of crypto assets and the extension of safety nets and central bank competence on “shadow banking,” the growing unregulated segment of financial markets.
This chapter deals with “digital cash.” A central bank digital currency (CBDC) is a liability of the central bank toward a nonbank holder – an individual or a company. The technology, a web of interconnected computer terminals, is widely available. Central banks already host deposits from banks, so technically the CBDC would only be an extension. From an economic and financial standpoint, however, there is major difference, because the opening of the central bank balance sheet to the public would tend to lead to bank disintermediation. Banks extend the credit to households and firms; bank disintermediation therefore has a contractionary effect on credit and economy growth. This effect is stronger in financial crises, in which deposit holders tend to shift massively toward “safe assets.” A CBDC risks constituting a channel of deposit runs. Some central banks, therefore, plan to apply strict quantitative limits. There is a trade-off here: The stricter the limits, the lower the significance and usefulness of the CBDC. By and large, global central banks are still grappling with these problems, and research is ongoing. The limited experience of countries that have already launched a CBDC (China, Nigeria, Bahamas) is not positive. There has been very little demand for CBDCs because they provide very little value added over existing private means of payment. The jury is still out as to whether the most important central banks (Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, etc.) will actually go ahead and issue CBDCs.
Michael Mann’s concept of infrastructural power is increasingly invoked to grapple with how state capacity has been leveraged upon processes of financialization since the 1970s. Yet while furnishing new insights about state–market hybridity, the literature risks transforming “infrastructural power” into a synonym for financialized state agency. This chapter restores the intended scope of Mann’s concept by situating it within his Sources of Social Power quadrilogy. It then surveys the concept’s applications in interdisciplinary finance studies and proposes three ideal types of infrastructural power: instrumental, communicative, and network-forming. These types are illustrated with historical and contemporary examples to highlight the historical depth and diversity of infrastructural powers in financial governance. The conclusion addresses the concept’s limitations for identifying whether public or private actors hold greater power in financial governance.
This article introduces a new conceptual framework for examining the transformation of central banks’ activities at the intersection of science and politics. It builds on the results of the contributions gathered in this special section on the scientization of central banking, to which this article also provides an introduction. We start with an analysis of Martin Marcussen’s concept of ‘scientization’, originally formulated to describe the changes within central banks since the 2000s. After highlighting how Marcussen’s concept has raised different interpretations, we broaden our scope to examine how ‘scientization’ is applied in the wider social sciences, extending beyond the study of central banks. This brings to the fore two ideas: scientization as ‘boundary work’ (redrawing the line between ‘science’ and ‘non-science’) happening both in the public-facing (‘frontstage’) and internal (‘backstage’) activities of organizations. Finally, we suggest how these two ideas can be used to reinterpret ‘scientization’ of central banks as the emergence of central banks as ‘boundary organizations’. This reframing allows us to untangle and clarify the phenomena previously conflated under the original concept of scientization, offering a more coherent framework for ongoing research on central banks.
Quantitative easing (QE) has been a favourite tool of central banks in their post-financial crisis monetary policy apparatus. Social science literature has interpreted QE as a shift away from performative governance characterising pre-crisis monetary policy. With reference to the Bank of England’s experience, I offer a reinterpretation of QE as a performative intervention in the conditions of financial markets, as an attempt to alter the state of financial markets away from dysfunctionality and towards efficiency. I claim that, following the financial crisis, the model of complete and efficient markets – a mainstay in central banking prior to the crisis – was transformed from a real-world approximation to a ‘performative object’ to be achieved. In deploying the balance sheet, central banks attempt to performatively enact complete and efficient markets. The article rejects the claim of discontinuity between pre-crisis and post-crisis monetary policy, arguing that QE is a continuation of inflation targeting though with important innovations. While pre-crisis performativity relied on central bankers’ communicative framing of market expectations, QE is performative via the ontological shaping of financial markets, driven by epistemic models. The article relies on a set of 51 interviews with central bankers and financial market participants and a corpus of documents.
After a brief introduction to the outbreak of the Austrian Credit Anstalt crisis in May 1931 and the early response by central bankers from Bank of England, the BIS and the New York Federal Reserve Bank, this chapter proceeds to present the book’s overall issues and main concepts, which will be used as a heuristic framework throughout the narrative. The main concepts of the book are radical uncertainty, sensemaking, narrative emplotment, imagined futures and epistemic communities. In the chapter, I discuss how these concepts are helpful in understanding central bankers’, and other actors’, decision-making and practices in the five month from May through September. The chapter also discusses my analytical strategy and presents the empirical material, which comes from the Bank of England, Bank for International Settlements, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the J.P. Morgan Archive, the Rothschild Archive and a few others. At the end of the chapter, I present the structure of the book.
If political independence provided Africans more latitude in how to pursue economic sovereignty, it hardly settled the matter of how it should be institutionalized. Debates about currency, for instance, persisted in East Africa after formal decolonization, and only in 1965-66 was the colonial money replaced by money issued by the independent states. This chapter traces the unexpected trajectory of decolonization, including the persistence of the imperial East African Currency Board. Decisions about the postcolonial monetary regimes were delayed, in part, by the machinations of British officials who tried to protect the racial capitalism of East Africa from the challenge of African independence. Yet, the establishment of national currencies and central banks was also delayed by Africans’ own commitment to supranational linkages, including an East African common market and currency. This chapter shows that the fortunes of a proposed East African Federation rose and fell on the dynamics of uneven and combined development in the region. And, finally, it examines how the central banking model adopted by postcolonial leaders reinforced the dependence of their nations on the accumulation of foreign currencies. The “moneychanger state,” in which postcolonial governments intermediated between domestic and foreign currencies, was critical to their own survival and ideas about development. Ultimately, though, it was the rural cultivators who would bear the burden of maintaining national solvency, a material reality that spurred a productivist ideology in which merit was revealed through earning export value.
We argue it is efficient/desirable for central banks to operate retail Instant Payments (IP) schemes and infrastructure, considering that (i) payment service providers (PSPs) face a problem of collective action, which limits their capacity to deliver a cheap, fast, open-architecture and interoperable IP scheme; and (ii) this problem may be overcome by a central bank (economically neutral actor) with a dual role of regulator and operator of IP schemes, especially by mandating participation of large PSPs and ensuring that the low cost of infrastructure is passed on to consumers. We corroborate with data from Brazil’s Pix and India’s UPI, where the efficiencies of central bank-led IP schemes also led to social gains through financial inclusion.
We consider the debut of a new monetary instrument, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Drawing on examples from monetary history, we argue that a successful monetary transformation must combine microeconomic efficiency with macroeconomic credibility. A paradoxical feature of these transformations is that success in the micro dimension can encourage macro failure. Overcoming this paradox may require politically uncomfortable compromises. We propose that such compromises will be necessary for the success of CBDCs.
Central banks have increased their official communications. Previous literature measures complexity, clarity, tone and sentiment. Less explored is the use of fact versus emotion in central bank communication. We test a new method for classifying factual versus emotional language, applying a pretrained transfer learning model, fine-tuned with manually coded, task-specific and domain-specific data sets. We find that the large language models outperform traditional models on some occasions; however, the results depend on a number of choices. We therefore caution researchers from depending solely on such models even for tasks that appear similar. Our findings suggest that central bank communications are not only technically but also subjectively difficult to understand.
The recent surge in inflation has led to an increase in research by academic economists into various aspects of central banking: in particular, central bank communication and trust in central banks. In addition, the move towards introducing Central Bank Digital Currency has increased the need for research in this area. This Special Issue of the National Institute Economic Review brings together some of this recent research and includes contributions from academic and policy-oriented researchers and leading experts on these recent developments in central banking research.
We start it with a brief historical overview about the emergence of independent central banks in Chapter 1. The chapter looks at different historical periods to work out ways to secure price stability that have been chosen in the past.
On 25 October 2021, Nigeria became the second country in the world, and the first in Africa, to launch a central bank digital currency. Launched with the tag line “Same Naira. More possibilities”, the Central Bank of Nigeria publicized the eNaira as having the capability to deepen financial inclusion, reduce the cost of financial transactions and support a more efficient payment system. However, more than one year after its launch, its usage is yet to gain a critical mass. This article identifies the significant challenges that make the eNaira unacceptable and potentially ineffective. First, its status as legal tender is questionable; secondly, it undermines privacy, a critical component of physical cash. Thirdly, it is incapable of wide acceptance by individuals and entities across Nigeria. The article explains each of these challenges and proposes a roadmap to the eNaira's acceptance and effectiveness.
In this commentary, I argue that Leon Wansleben’s focus on financial plumbing as a source of central banks’ epistemic and instrumental power will be met by the profession with a mixture of relief, incredulity, and worry. More importantly, I maintain that central bankers’ relationship with finance varies according to whether or not they are independent from elected government, an under researched area. All this works as a point of departure for remarks, drawing on my own memories, on central banking’s relationship with neoliberalism in monetary policy, monetary operations, and banking. Finally, I urge that Wansleben’s method be applied to anti-trust and the micro-economic regulation of utility services.
Chapter 1 introduces the reader to macro-prudential policy and exposes the reader to the problem of persistently instable financial markets, which raise the question of if and how far the macro-prudential regulatory program post-crisis had any effect. In contrast to binary paradigm shift views, which see no to little change, I introduce a multidimensional view of regulatory change that can detect massive change in the economic ideas underlying financial regulation, while pointing to the administrative and political limitations that prevent these ideas from becoming fully performative. Pointing to these contradictions, the chapter introduces the analytical framework and the main contributions of the book, followed by an outline of the different chapters.
How has mainstream academic economic discourse evolved to regain its epistemic authority after the financial crisis of 2008 revealed serious blind spots in economic modelling that shattered the profession’s claim to be able to predict and control macroeconomic variables? To answer this question, we combine content with bibliometric analyses of nearly 70,000 papers on macroeconomics and finance published in academic journals from 1990 to 2019. These analyses reveal how a structural rapprochement between macroeconomics and finance created the new subfield of macro-finance. We show that contributions by central bank economists, driven by central banks’ newly acquired macroprudential mandate, were key to its establishment. Acting within the space of regulatory science, they connected macroeconomic and financial knowledge to satisfy their employers’ administrative needs, while also helping to bridge the gaping hole in economic discourse, thereby taking on an important stabilizing role for the epistemic authority of economics.
This response gives me the opportunity to clarify, extend, and complement several aspects of my conceptual and historical argument in The Currency of Politics. I do so primarily by situating my account more explicitly within debates over European monetary politics, by expanding on my use of history, and by articulating what differentiates my concern with the political theory of money and the politics of depoliticisation from complementary accounts. In doing so I elaborate on the ways in which engagement with the thought of John Maynard Keynes helped to structure my approach. While there are important limits to the politics of money under contemporary capitalism, these limits are not fixed economic ones but are better seen as political limits of monetary politics that nonetheless leave considerable space for articulating alternative demands for more democratic forms of money. This framing allows me to extend my argument in order to address contemporary struggles over credit policy, monetary reform, and climate change in Europe. I thus end with a set of critical reflections on the constitutional status of money in the European project and beyond.