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This chapter addresses how one could quantify and explore the impact of geopolitics on global businesses. Computational geopolitics is an attempt to integrate quantitative methods and geopolitical analysis to understand and predict trends. The explosive growth of data, improvements in computational power, and access to cloud computing have led to a proliferation of computational methods in analyzing geopolitics and its impact on companies. The chapter explores some tools and techniques used in computational geopolitics, including events-based approaches to measuring geopolitical tensions, textual approaches, and empirical approaches. In addition, it provides examples of ways in which analysts can quantify the impact of geopolitics on trade and foreign direct investment. It also introduces experimental methods to assess the effectiveness of companies’ strategic responses to geopolitical tensions. Large language models (LLMs) can be used for sentiment analysis, spotting trends, scenario building, risk assessment, and strategic recommendations. While they methods offer advances in quantifying the impact of geopolitics on global businesses, analysts should also be cautious about data quality and availability as well as the complexity of the phenomenon and the geopolitics of AI. The chapter concludes by pointing the reader to some widely used data sources for computational geopolitics.
The role of natural language communication in economic exchange has been the focus of substantial experimental analysis. Recently, scholars have taken the important step of investigating whether certain types of communication (e.g., promises) might affect decisions differently than other types of communication. This requires classifying natural language messages. Unfortunately, no broadly-accepted method is available for this purpose. We here describe a coordination game for classification of natural language messages. The game is similar in spirit to the “ESP” game that has proven successful for the classification of tens of millions of internet images. We compare our approach to self-classification as well as to classifications based on a standard content analysis. We argue that our classification game has advantages over those alternative approaches, and that these advantages might stem from the salient rewards earned by our game's participants.
Eliciting the level of risk aversion of experimental subjects is of crucial concern to experimenters. In the literature there are a variety of methods used for such elicitation; the concern of the experiment reported in this paper is to compare them. The methods we investigate are the following: Holt–Laury price lists; pairwise choices, the Becker–DeGroot–Marschak method; allocation questions. Clearly their relative efficiency in measuring risk aversion depends upon the numbers of questions asked; but the method itself may well influence the estimated risk-aversion. While it is impossible to determine a ‘best’ method (as the truth is unknown) we can look at the differences between the different methods. We carried out an experiment in four parts, corresponding to the four different methods, with 96 subjects. In analysing the data our methodology involves fitting preference functionals; we use four, Expected Utility and Rank-Dependent Expected Utility, each combined with either a CRRA or a CARA utility function. Our results show that the inferred level of risk aversion is more sensitive to the elicitation method than to the assumed-true preference functional. Experimenters should worry most about context.
We use experimental methods to evaluate a simplified interbank market. The design is a laboratory adaptation of the analysis of interbank market fragility by Allen and Gale (J Eur Econ Assoc 2:1015–1048), and features symmetric banks who allocate deposit endowments between cash and illiquid assets prior to the incidence of a shock. Following the shock liquidity-deficient banks trade assets for cash. Treatments include variations in the shock type, as well as alterations in the range of permissible asset prices. Consistent with Allen and Gale, we find that while interbank trading substantially increases investment activity, the markets are frequently characterized by price variability and a stochastic distribution of investment outcomes.
In this paper we report the results of additional exchange ultimatum game experiments conducted at the same time as the exchange ultimatum game experiments reported in Hoffman et al. (Games and Economic Behavior, 7(3), pp. 346-380, 1994). In these additional experiments, we use instructions to change an impersonal exchange situation to a personal exchange situation. To do this, we prompt sellers to consider what choices their buyers will make. Game theory would predict that thinking about the situation would lead sellers to make smaller offers to buyers. In contrast, we find a significant increase in seller offers to buyers. This result suggests that encouraging sellers to thinking about buyer choices focuses their attention on the strategic interaction with humans who think they way they do in personal exchange situations, and who may punish them for unacceptable behavior, and not on the logic of the game theoretic structure of the problem.
Many experiments investigating different decision theories have relied heavily on pairwise choices between lotteries. These are easy to incentivise, but often yield only limited dichotomous information. This paper considers whether respondents’ judgments about their strength of preference (SoP) for one alternative over another can usefully supplement standard choice data. We report extensive evidence that such judgments show sensitivity to variations in question format and parameter values in the directions we should expect, not only within-subject but also between-sample. We illustrate how such judgments can usefully supplement standard pairwise choice data and enrich our understanding of observed behaviour.
In certain markets success may depend on how well participants anticipate the behavior of other participants who have varying amounts of experience. Understanding if and how people's behavior depends on competitors’ level of experience is important since in most markets participants have varying amounts of experience. Examining data from two new experimental studies similar to the beauty contest game first studied by Nagel (1995), the results indicate that (1) players with no experience behave the same against competitors with and without experience but (2) players quickly learn to condition their behavior on competitors’ experience level, causing (3) behavior to stop moving toward the equilibrium whenever new players enter the game and (4) experienced players to earn more money than less experienced players. The paper discusses the implications of the results for understanding and modeling behavior in markets in which participants have different amounts of experience.
Cason and Plott (J Polit Econ, 122(6):1235–1270, 2014) show that subjects’ misconception about the incentive properties of the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) value elicitation procedure can generate data patterns that look like—and might thus be misinterpreted as evidence for—preferences constructed from endowments or reference points. We test whether game form misconceptions are necessary to produce willingness-to-pay (WTP) vs. willingness-to-accept (WTA) gaps in a valuation experiment in which subjects are randomly assigned to the role of either buyer or seller. We employ a design that allows us to identify whether a subject understood the incentive properties of a price-list version of the BDM mechanism. We find a robust WTP-WTA gap, even among subjects whose elicited valuations for a good of induced and known monetary value and whose ability to identify the payoffs resulting from their choices indicate an understanding of the incentive properties of the BDM mechanism. We conclude that game form misconceptions are not a necessary condition for the emergence of WTP-WTA gaps.
This chapter provides an accessible introduction to experimental methods for social and behavioral scientists. We cover the process of experimentation from generating hypotheses through to statistical analyses. The chapter discusses classical issues (e.g., experimental design, selecting appropriate samples) but also more recent developments that have attracted the attention of experimental researchers. These issues include replication, preregistration, online samples, and power analyses. We also discuss the strengths and weaknesses of experimental methods. We conclude by noting that, for many research questions, experimental methods provide the strongest test of hypothesized causal relationships. Furthermore, well-designed experiments can elicit the same mental processes as in the real world; this typically makes them generalizable to new people and real-life situations.
In the volume’s afterword, the founder of the Discourse–Pragmatic Variation and Change Research network assesses how the field has expanded over recent decades, and offers suggestions for its future development. The afterword discusses the strengths of this volume, including the breadth and diversity of topics covered. It calls for further studies of discourse–pragmatic variation in contact settings, for cross–linguistic comparisons, and for studying languages other than English, arguing that such analyses will facilitate exploration of how discourse–pragmatic variation and change manifests across languages. It also recommends an expansion of data sources, methodological approaches and theoretical frameworks, arguing that such expansion will diversify the kind of research questions discourse variationists can be pursue.
Psycholinguists often use experimental tasks of word recognition as a window onto understanding how we process words. Here, we review results with the lexical decision task that show sensitivity to morphological structure in that word recognition task. We then highlight the limitations of assuming that evidence of morphological processing is best interpreted as evidence that lexical entries are decomposed into constituent morphemes. Further, when target words follow primes formed from the same stem and presented at brief durations so as to tap into early processing in the lexical decision task, we argue that finding no difference between semantically transparent and opaque pairs in individual priming experiments is not sufficient to conclude that early analysis proceeds without regard to a word’s semantic properties. We familiarize the reader with the intricacies of the priming methodology for the lexical decision task and the claim that target recognition benefits from structural priming based on repetition of a stem morpheme in prime and target in . Inwe then discuss how outcomes change with processing time for the prime and its implication for the claim that when processing time for the prime is curtailed, morphological processing is insensitive to semantics. We argue instead that morphological priming cannot be attributed solely to the letter sequence that constitutes the stem in part because stem repetition accounts downplay the role of differences and similarities of whole-word targets with words other than just its prime. Inwe provide evidence that challenges an account of early morphological processing based on the form but not the semantic consequences of shared morphology between prime and target. In , we summarize meta-analytic results with funnel plots to ascertain the reliability of early effects of semantic similarity among morphological relatives in lexical decision, thus refuting support for a decomposition account that is semantically blind and based on stem form. Finally, in , we touch upon the power of tuning form-with-semantics models across languages and writing systems that differ with respect to their morphological structure and neighborhood density measures by emphasizing patterning distributed across words rather than local decomposition into morphemes. As an alternative throughout, we align results with models in which analysis of wordform and meaning are interdependent, rather than two independent and sequential processes, thus discounting the privileged role reserved for the stem.
Competing models of lexical access propose contrasting roles for morphological structure in word recognition. Whole-word models suggest that there are no separate representations for morphemes (e.g., Tyler et al. ); decomposition models posit that words are recognized by accessing their constituent morphemes (e.g., Taft et al. ); and hybrid models incorporate both pathways to recognition (e.g., Bertram et al. ). The relative productivity of a word’s derivational affixes may also play a role: words with unproductive affixes are processed holistically whereas words with productive derivational affixes are processed as a function of their morphemes (e.g., Balling and Baayen ). In this paper, we examine the role of the Semitic consonantal root, known to be a route for lexical retrieval, and its interaction with relative binyan productivity. Extending the methodology developed by Wray () for Jordanian Arabic, we investigate the Semitic language Maltese. Based on two auditory lexical decision experiments, we find a reverse base frequency effect in a productive binyan (words with more frequent roots are recognized more slowly than words with less frequent roots), and in two less productive binyanim we find no base frequency effect. This supports the validity of models in which morphological decomposition is relevant strictly for productive affixes.
The present study explores the learnability of complex morphological patterns, specifically number and gender categories. The typology of morphological systems suggests that infrequent, complex, and structurally marked categories such as the dual are more likely to show neutralization or syncretism than unmarked categories. In two artificial language learning experiments, adult English speakers were exposed to a language with noun class categories both for gender and number. Results suggest that syncretism of gender across dual forms allows for greater learnability of the dual form. However, overall learnability was not affected by whether syncretism occurred in the singular, dual, or plural. These results further the understanding of the cognitive mechanisms that shape complex morphological patterns.
When do voters punish corrupt politicians? Heterogeneous views about the importance of corruption can determine whether or not increased information enhances accountability. If partisan cleavages correlate with the importance voters place on corruption, then the consequences of information may vary by candidate, even when voters identify multiple candidates as corrupt. We provide evidence of this mechanism from a field experiment in a mayoral election in Brazil where a reputable interest group declared both candidates corrupt. We distributed fliers in the runoff mayoral election in São Paulo. Informing voters about the challenger's record reduced turnout by 1.9 percentage points and increased the opponent's vote by 2.6 percentage points. Informing voters about the incumbent's record had no effect on behavior. We attribute this divergent finding to differences in how each candidate's supporters view corruption. Using survey data and a survey experiment, we show that the challenger's supporters are more willing to punish their candidate for corruption, while the incumbent's supporters lack this inclination.
Anaphora play a key role in syntactic theorizing, but experimental investigations of coreference – especially when using acceptability judgments – involve unique methodological challenges. Given that non-linguist participants are unlikely to be familiar with linguistic notations such as the use of subscripts, how can researchers indicate the coreference relation whose acceptability is being assessed? In other words, if a researcher wants to test whether a particular coindexation relation is acceptable, how can this information be conveyed to participants? Ignoring this issue can yield uninterpretable data. This chapter provides an in-depth discussion of different methods for indicating coreference when researchers want to elicit acceptability judgments from participants who are not trained linguists. The chapter also discusses other approaches relevant for anaphora, including antecedent-choice tasks and real-time methods (self-paced reading, eye-tracking), and explains how they differ in terms of the kind of data they yield and thus the kinds of hypotheses they can be used to investigate.
This chapter examines the role of experimentation within the social identity approach to the study of identity. The main question of interest concerns the ways in which experimental methods give particular shape to how identity is understood within this tradition. We will examine the historical, theoretical, and practical development of the social identity approach and of experimentation in psychology, and then show how the two have converged so as to create an insightful, and yet simultaneously limited and at times even problematic, understanding of identity. This particular constellation of theoretical assumptions and practical methods has produced an impressive body of important research. It has also led to the establishment and entrenchment of theoretical and methodological biases of which researchers often seem to be unaware, but which nevertheless considerably influence the study of identity within the social identity tradition. Thus, in light of the rich output of the social identity approach, the chapter examines some of the limitations of that tradition and attempts to draw researchers’ attention to the theoretical and methods-based biases of which they may not be aware. In this way, the chapter is an attempt to explore how experimental methods and theory have interacted within the social identity tradition to both the benefit and detriment of our understanding of identity.
At present, much of the research on bilingual cognition focuses on late second language learners of a small number of languages. In this fascinating book, Evangelia Adamou widens the net by integrating advances in the field of bilingualism with the study of endangered languages. Drawing on recent studies from Europe and Latin America, she demonstrates that experimental psycholinguistic methods can be successfully applied outside the lab and, conversely, how data from these understudied populations provide new insights into the adaptive capacities of the bilingual mind. Adamou shows how bilinguals manage competing conceptualizations of time and space, how their grammars and language mixing patterns adapt to cognitive constraints such as the need for simplification, and how language processing concurrently adapts to their complex bilingual experience. Combining statistical analyses with detailed linguistic and ethnographic information, this essential book will appeal to scholars of bilingualism, cognitive sciences, language endangerment, and language contact.
Recent research suggests widespread misperception about the political views of others. Measuring perceptions often relies on instruments that do not separate uncertainty from inaccuracy. We present new experimental measures of second-order political beliefs. To carefully measure political (mis)perceptions, we have subjects report beliefs as probabilities. To encourage accuracy, we provide micro-incentives for each response. To measure learning, we provide information sequentially about the perception of interest. We illustrate our method by applying it to perceptions of vote choice in the 2016 presidential election. Subjects made inferences about randomly selected American National Election Study (ANES) respondents. Before and after receiving information about the other, subjects reported a probabilistic belief about the other’s vote. We find that perceptions are less biased than in previous work on second-order beliefs. Accuracy increased most with the delivery of party identification and report of a most important problem. We also find evidence of modest egocentric and different-trait bias.
Experimental political science has changed. In two short decades, it evolved from an emergent method to an accepted method to a primary method. The challenge now is to ensure that experimentalists design sound studies and implement them in ways that illuminate cause and effect. Ethical boundaries must also be respected, results interpreted in a transparent manner, and data and research materials must be shared to ensure others can build on what has been learned. This book explores the application of new designs; the introduction of novel data sources, measurement approaches, and statistical methods; the use of experiments in more substantive domains; and discipline-wide discussions about the robustness, generalizability, and ethics of experiments in political science. By exploring these novel opportunities while also highlighting the concomitant challenges, this volume enables scholars and practitioners to conduct high-quality experiments that will make key contributions to knowledge.
How does an individual's criminal record shape interactions with the state and society? This article presents evidence from a nationwide field experiment in the United States, which shows that prospective applicants with criminal records are about 5 percentage points less likely to receive information from college admission offices. However, this bias does not extend to race: there is no difference in response rates to Black and White applicants. The authors further show that bias is all but absent in public bureaucracies, as discrimination against formerly incarcerated applicants is driven by private schools. Examining why bias is stronger for private colleges, the study demonstrates that the private–public difference persists even after accounting for college selectivity, socio-economic composition and school finances. Moving beyond the measurement of bias, an intervention designed to reduce discrimination is evaluated: whether an email from an advocate mitigates bias associated with a criminal record. No evidence is found that advocate endorsements decrease bureaucratic bias.