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More than a million fish bones have been analyzed from the faunal assemblages in shell middens that mark the location of ancestral Indigenous settlements on the shores of the central reaches of the Salish Sea. Salmon bones, which account for 38% of the identifiable fish remains, are most abundant close to the main migration route of Fraser River sockeye and pink salmon. Salmon bone abundance in the “Marpole” cultural phase from 2400 to 1200 cal BP varies in concert with activity levels at salmon-fishing locations upstream on the Thompson River, peaking in the interval of maximal local marine productivity from about 1650 to 1350 cal BP. Summed probability distributions (SPDs) derived from the radiocarbon catalogs of coastal sites either echo the Thompson River pattern or are contrapuntal. The concordant SPDs suggest that Salishan population dynamics on the sockeye migration route reflect the relative success of the salmon fishery. The contrapuntal patterns are restricted to bays and inlets off the main sockeye and pink salmon migration route and may reflect the movements of Salishan people responding to a dearth of salmon by resettling in locales with a less volatile resource base.
Spray drift and volatilization of the herbicide dicamba from agricultural uses is an area of significant study in recent years. While only the low-volatility formulations of dicamba have been approved for use in the United States in post-emergent dicamba tolerant (DT) cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.], a variety of other dicamba products that are not specifically low-volatility have been approved for decades and can be used as pre-emergent herbicides in certain crops, including soybean and cotton, and in early post-emergent corn applications. This study compared the volatility and spray drift deposition resulting from an approved use of dicamba on DT soybean, an approved dicamba use on corn (Zea mays L.), and an example of an unapproved use of dicamba on soybean all side-by-side in two locations. Results showed that the downwind spray drift deposition of dicamba was highest in the approved corn applications at both field locations due to medium droplet size and higher release height. The volatility of dicamba during the first sampling interval after application as measured by air concentrations was between 13 and 74 times higher for approved corn or unapproved soybean treatments at 1.5 m above the crop, compared to approved soybean at both study locations. Results from this study suggest that the low-volatility formulations and label measures in DT soybean and cotton uses are beneficial in keeping dicamba off-target movement potential relatively low.
Scholars have investigated the characteristics of volatile voters ever since the first voter surveys were carried out and they have paid specific attention to the role of political sophistication on vote switching. Nevertheless, the exact nature of this relationship is still unclear. With increasing volatility over the past decades this question has furthermore grown in relevance. Is the growing unpredictability of elections mostly driven by sophisticated voters making well‐considered choices or is the balance of power in the hands of unsophisticated ‘floating voters’? Several scholars have argued that even under conditions of increasing volatility switching is still mostly confined to changes to ideologically close parties. Most researchers, however, have used rather crude measures to investigate this ‘leap’ between parties. To advance research in this field, this article directly models the ideological distance bridged by volatile voters when investigating the link between political sophistication and volatility. This is done using Comparative Study of Electoral systems (CSES) data that encompass a broad sample of recent parliamentary elections worldwide. Results indicate that voters with an intermediate level of political knowledge are most likely to switch overall. When taking into account the ideological distance of party switching, however, the confining impact of political knowledge on the vote choices made is clearly dominant, resulting in a linear decrease of the distance bridged as voters become more knowledgeable.
For a number of decades now, scholars have been indicating that ties between citizens and parties are eroding. As a consequence, electoral behaviour has become more volatile and also more unpredictable. The consequences of this process of change on parties’ strategic behaviour have, however, received little attention. In this article, the impact of dealignment on parties’ strategic behaviour is examined, with the focus being on the extent to which parties are responsive to the mean voter. The expectation of dealignment allowing parties ‘to move around more freely’ leads to the hypothesis that parties are more responsive in a context of dealignment. The analyses provide evidence that is in line with this expectation. Ideological responsiveness is conditioned by the level of volatility in the electorate. The conclusion to draw from these results is that dealignment, which profoundly affects voters’ behaviour, leads parties to become more responsive to the mean voter.
The COVID-19 syndemic had a strong impact on financial market volatility. This study compares traditional indices, such as the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 and the Euro Stoxx 50, with their sustainable counterparts; the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index (DJSWI); and the EURO STOXX Sustainability Index. The results show that the sustainable indices were more stable and less volatile before and after the crisis, suggesting that investors perceive less risk in sustainable companies. These findings reinforce the importance of considering sustainability in investment decisions, especially in times of uncertainty.
Technical Summary
With the ever-increasing importance of sustainability, it is a good time for a retrospective on the impact of the COVID-19 polycrisis on stock market volatility through a comparison of traditional indices such as the S&P 500 and the Euro Stoxx 50, with their sustainability counterparts; the DJSWI; and the EURO STOXX Sustainability Index. Using GJR-GARCH and E-GARCH models, the study reveals that sustainability indices exhibited greater stability and lower volatility before and after the syndemic, suggesting a lower risk perception by investors in sustainable companies. The implied volatility analysis confirms this stability, showing a more significant impact on traditional indices. Although all indices experienced greater sensitivity to negative shocks, sustainable indices showed a faster and more consistent recovery. These findings highlight the importance of considering sustainability factors in risk assessment and investment decision-making, especially in times of crisis.
Social Media Summary
Sustainable indices in Europe and the USA showed lower volatility and faster recovery after COVID-19 polycrisis.
Legal risks are a significant part of a firm’s overall risk profile, and is typically guided by calculating the probability of risk and its potential magnitude. Yet this calcuation does not fully capture how risks manifest for organizations. This chapter presents a novel way of evaluating legal risk termed transformative legal risk management. Transformative legal risk management is different from traditional approaches because it incorporates a new layer of understanding legal risk. Using a four-pronged approach to risk management known as VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity). This chapter introduces two of the four VUCA risks: volatility and uncertainty. The chapter defines volatility, identifies sources of legal volatility, and presents responses that legal experts can use in response to volatility risk. The chapter then defines uncertainty, identifies sources of legal uncertainty, and presents responses firms can use to reduce uncertainty risk. The chapter shows how firms applying VUCA can not only minimize harm from legal risks but also elevate legal risk management into a practice that generates a competitive advantage over rivals.
Continuing the exploration of transformative legal risk management, this chapter addresses the remaining two risk dimensions that govern a VUCA environment: complexity and ambiguity. Complexity is an environment that contains numerous interconnected parts, accepts inputs, generates outputs, and develops a capacity to learn and remember. The fourth and final dimension of VUCA is ambiguity. Especially challenging for firms deploying legal knowledge, ambiguity is an environment where causes and effects propelling events forward are largely unknown, the firm does not know whether an organized system will emerge, and little historical precedent exists for determining the most appropriate course of action. The chapter defines complexity and ambiguity, explains how they are applicable to legal risk, and articulates strategies for firms to use their legal knowledge to anticipate and address complex and ambiguous legal problems.
In the early neoclassical era, the smooth adjustment of agents’ marginal utilities dampened the response of market prices to supply disturbances. But when agents do not make smooth trade-offs, they will tend consume goods in specific combinations, as in the model of safety bias. A negative shock to supplies can then send prices soaring, a common feature of energy markets for example. Postwar general equilibrium theory permits agents to be safety-biased but has dismissed these volatility scenarios on the grounds that they occur only at vanishingly unlikely output levels. The no-volatility conclusion fails to hold however once the production of goods is taken into account: the seemingly unlikely output levels arise systematically. Production on the other hand spells out countervailing forces that curb the most extreme cases of price volatility. Volatility is closely related to the indeterminacy of equilibria and the chapter critiques the claims of general equilibrium theorists that these phenomena are unlikely.
Via an analysis of H. G. Wells’s Tono-Bungay, this chapter explores how novels adapted to accommodate the metropolitan spaces of London, and it argues that Wells’s novel links the financialization of the British economy and the cultural turn toward London to the emergence of a new novelistic poetics and to the development of a new novelistic character. Tono-Bungay narrates the rise and fall of Teddy Ponderevo’s financial empire, but the source of drama in the novel is more often the narrator’s inability to reconcile classical novelistic poetics with the logic of value production under finance capitalism and with his experiences in London. The narrator longs for a new mode of representation that can account for the largely imaginary and highly volatile value produced by the financial empire, and he finds inspiration for that new mode of representation in the urban spaces of London.
This chapter interprets Virginia Woolf’s The Waves through the economic theory of John Maynard Keynes. Keynes’s The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money waxes nostalgic for a world of industrial capital where people with good characters invest in respected businesses over the long term. Keynes blames the “great slump” on a system of financial speculation made possible by the modern corporation that encourages investors to anticipate and value the vacillations of popular opinion instead of sound business practices. This chapter argues that Woolf’s novel encodes the logic of financial speculation as described by Keynes in her depiction of characters who redefine themselves according to fluctuating social configurations. The resulting novelistic poetics constitute an aesthetic of volatility characteristic of high modernism that anticipates the emergence of affective intensity as the dominant value form of our own era of capitalism.
Jean Rhys’s Voyage in the Dark maps the distinction between the country and the city onto the geopolitical scale of colonial metropole and periphery, where the colonial periphery is the semiotic placeholder for the role that London plays in the previous two chapters as the space that disrupts conventional novelistic poetics. In Anna Morgan, two worlds that do not compute – the financialized metropole of London and the preindustrial periphery – collide and the result is a character that operates according to the logic of affect rather than conventional narratives of sentiment and emotion. Her character thereby anticipates the emergence of affect as value form.
The work of the artist and writer Gerald Nestler explores finance and its social implications since the mid-1990s. Based on his professional experience as a trader as well as on post-disciplinary research, he has developed a unique approach that brings together theory and conversation with installation, video, performance, text, and other art forms. Probing into the narrative structures of contemporary capitalism, Nestler offers a techno-political critique directly from the core of the financial markets. This interview addresses his reading of the derivative as a world-producing apparatus that shapes the experience of the present by preconfiguring the future, and that provokes a shift from representational to performative speech in the actualization of biopower based on the exploitation of volatility and leverage. In conversation with Christian Kloeckner and Stefanie Mueller, he argues for the formation of specific human/non-human alliances that directly attack algorithmic as well as socio-economic black-boxing (schemes that monopolize inherently non-scarce resources), so as to open our imagination to skills and tactics that would allow us to navigate the rich but volatile flows of social, political, and economic abundance.
This essay explores the meaning that volatility assumes in the Chinese stock market context. Drawing on discussions from ‘mom and pop’ online forums, it argues investors operate in a relational position with the Chinese state regulators that both sustain and threaten their market activities. Chinese stock markets are known to be the most volatile in the world. To face the state's arbitrary intervention in the market, investors must constantly juggle the options of either leaning on and trusting the regulators’ capacity to protect and rescue their stocks or engaging in risky margin trading and short-selling activities. This contradictory behavior is reflected in the popular self-mocking meme that keeps circulating in investors online forums, the one of the jiucai (meaning ‘garlic chives’). The investors often use it with irony to describe their own tendency to throw cash into the markets again and again, hoping to regain the money they lost in previous investments, never learning a lesson. Linking the financial with the biopolitical dimension, the essay takes the jiucai meme to show the extent to which volatility points to the production of new subjects whose resilience involves the adoption of practices of speculation to conjure a future for themselves that is reborn multiple times.
The term ‘volatility’ applies to changeability: both that which can be measured, such as temperatures and stock prices, and that which cannot be easily measured, such as affects and emotions. Quantitative financial volatility has typically been studied quite separately from art, culture, and everyday life. Randy Martin's work, which addressed the resonances between volatility in dance and finance, was a notable exception. Martin focused on derivatives, which played a critical role in the development of financialized capitalism, especially between 1973-2008. Arguably, however, derivatives are no longer the key drivers of volatility as a social and cultural logic. New assemblages of asset managers, rentiers, and online platforms - along with a pandemic, new banking crises, and ongoing climate emergency - are reshaping how volatility is produced and navigated. How might we rethink volatility in order to better grasp its changing logics? This introduction unpacks existing debates on volatility in finance, art, and culture, suggesting several directions in which new work in this area might depart from existing frameworks - some of which are pursued in this special issue. We focus on three broad lines of exploration: rethinking the intellectual histories of volatility; rethinking volatility across disparate post-2008 contexts; and imagining volatile futures through art practice.
This article explores the quantitative and qualitative dimensions of volatility and their implications for cultural analysis in a range of fields. From quantitative finance, it takes the notion of ‘delta-hedging’, the suspension or neutralization of directionality to get access to volatility, and applies this to qualitative areas such as surfing, dance, cinema, and language.
This article argues that there are parallels between developments in modern science and in art and culture, including the culture of finance, and that these developments can be tracked by a notion of volatility not just as change, but as how change itself has changed. Describing this paradigm shift requires a language that is precise but indeterminate, a language akin to metaphor, understood as figures of volatility. Three such figures are anamorphosis, anachronism, and catachresis. These figures are major instantiations of volatility, though they do not exhaust all the possibilities. What they indicate is not just that our frames of understanding have shifted, but that we are dealing with problematic, multiple, and overlapping frames: anamorphosis problematizes our experience of space, anachronism of time, and catachresis of language. These figures are not all in play at the same time. In literature, catachresis may be the dominant figure; in dance, anamorphosis; in ‘slow cinema’, anachronism. The aim is less to arrive at a set of defining characteristics than to follow a series of transformations across different cultural fields. Almost every field in our time is volatile each in its own way, and this has consequences for methodology. If figures are tools to think with, not to regulate thought, a necessary method would be to allow these figures to emerge from the material, not from a checklist. The question of volatility is arguably the key intellectual challenge of our time because it allows us to see deviation from a norm not just as an aberration, but as an indication that established norms are losing their normative value.
Damage to non–dicamba resistant (non-DR) soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] has been frequent in geographies where dicamba-resistant (DR) soybean and cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) have been grown and sprayed with the herbicide in recent years. Off-target movement field trials were conducted in northwest Arkansas to determine the relationship between dicamba concentration in the air and the extent of symptomology on non-DR soybean. Additionally, the frequency and concentration of dicamba in air samples at two locations in eastern Arkansas and environmental conditions that impacted the detection of the herbicide in air samples were evaluated. Treatment applications included dicamba at 560 g ae ha−1 (1X rate), glyphosate at 860 g ae ha−1, and particle drift retardant at 1% v/v applied to 0.37-ha fields with varying degrees of vegetation. The relationship between dicamba concentration in air samples and non-DR soybean response to the herbicide was more predictive with visible injury (generalized R2 = 0.82) than height reduction (generalized R2 = 0.43). The predicted dicamba air concentration resulting in 10% injury to soybean was 1.60 ng m−3 d−1 for a single exposure. The predicted concentration from a single exposure to dicamba resulting in a 10% height reduction was 3.78 ng m−3 d−1. Dicamba was frequently detected in eastern Arkansas, and daily detections above 1.60 ng m−3 occurred 17 times in the period sampled. The maximum concentration of dicamba recorded was 7.96 ng m−3 d−1, while dicamba concentrations at Marianna and Keiser, AR, were ≥1 ng m−3 d−1 in six samples collected in 2020 and 22 samples in 2021. Dicamba was detected consistently in air samples collected, indicating high usage in the region and the potential for soybean damage over an extended period. More research is needed to quantify the plant absorption rate of volatile dicamba and to evaluate the impact of multiple exposures of gaseous dicamba on non-targeted plant species.
Whether domestic and international contexts affect governments’ abilities to alter total expenditures, revenues, deficits, and budgetary volatility is our focus in Chapter 6. We develop expectations about the influence of government ideology and majority status together with contextual factors and other budgetary components on each of our four budgetary components. For the domestic contexts, we consider election timing, unemployment, and economic growth. In the international realm, we focus on globalization and conflict involvement. Building on the results from the panel vector autoregressive (pVAR) model from Chapter 5, we specify separate reduced-form models for each of our budget component variables to test our theoretical expectations. Across the results we present in this chapter, we find very few statistically significant effects, especially in terms of long-run effects, on the four budgetary components. The strongest results are for the influence of contextual factors on budgetary volatility, specifically when increasing unemployment and economic openness. When unemployment or economic openness increases, we find that budgetary volatility increases under majority left governments in both the short- and long-runs. This evidence indicates that right and left governments differ in how much they respond to both domestic and international contexts.
Chapter 3. The mechanisms that govern how a gold standard works, and the historical performance of gold standards in practice, have often been misunderstood or inaccurately described – both by critics and by supporters, including academic economists. We address the main misconceptions by critics, including “The Gold Standard caused the Great Depression,” “A gold standard is dangerously deflationary,” “The volatility of the price of gold in recent years shows that gold would be an unstable monetary standard.” We also address the main misconceptions by supporters, including “Gold has objective value,” “A gold standard provides a perfectly stable measure of value, like a yardstick provides a stable measure of length, because it fixes the definition of the monetary unit,” and “The quantity of money is self-regulating under a gold standard only if we outlaw fractional-reserve banking in favor of one hundred percent reserves.”
In Chapter 7, we conclude by placing both our theoretical and methodological contributions within the wider world of government decision-making. Our theory begins with the core assumption that government ideology drives the budgetary priorities of governments. With a blank slate, these ideological preferences would steer governments in shaping budgets. While this is a useful place to start theoretical debate about political budgeting, an important part of our argument is about how contextual factors influence whether governments can achieve their ideological priorities. Throughout the book, we find many instances in which context overwhelms ideology to drive government budgets. In developing our theoretical ideas about the interplay between ideology and contexts, we emphasize the importance of recognizing the interlinked nature of the different parts of political budgets. We take advantage of recent advances in dynamic compositional models and panel vector autoregressive (pVAR) models when testing our ideas. To make the results from these complex models accessible, we rely heavily on graphical presentations of our findings. Together, our theory of budgets and the methods we use to test it are all intended to bring studies closer to the messy but fascinating real world of political budgeting.