Skip to main content Accessibility help

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
×
Hostname: page-component-5b777bbd6c-cp4x8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-06-18T18:51:46.601Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Chapter 21 - Predictability and targeted observations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 December 2009

By
Alan J. Thorpe  and
Guðrún Nína Petersen
Edited by
Tim Palmer  and
Renate Hagedorn
Alan J. Thorpe
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Guðrún Nína Petersen
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Tim Palmer
Affiliation:
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Renate Hagedorn
Affiliation:
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Get access

Summary

The aim of this chapter is to provide a summary of the development of the ideas behind, and experiments undertaking, so-called targeted observations of the atmosphere. The scientific issue is the assessment of the role of such targeted observations in improving the skill of numerical weather predictions for time periods up to two weeks ahead. Particular reference will be made to the problem of forecasting extratropical cyclones. Within the context of the international programme THORPEX, a vision of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) system of the future will be given involving a two-way interaction between the observing system and the NWP system.

Introduction

Severe windstorms and precipitation cause substantial societal and economic impact. It is therefore important to consider how we can accelerate improvements in predictive skill. There have been tremendous strides forward taken in numerically predicting the weather, and the three day forecasts of surface pressure are now about as accurate as the one day forecasts were 20 years ago. This is one of the greatest scientific achievements of the twentieth century, with huge societal and economic benefits. These advances in numerical weather prediction arise from developments in modelling as well as in making and utilising observations. Ensemble predictions enable us to do probability estimations, the observational capability of satellites have increased tremendously and there have been great advances in variational data assimilation.

However, inaccuracy in initial conditions as well as uncertainties in model formulations still remain a problem.

Type
Chapter
Information
Predictability of Weather and Climate , pp. 561 - 583
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2006

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Book purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Baker, N. L. and Daley, R. (2000). Observation and background adjoint sensitivity in the adaptive observation-targeting problem. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 1431–54CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berliner, L. M., Lu, Z.-Q. and Snyder, C. (1999). Statistical design for adaptive weather observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 2536–522.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bishop, C. H., Etherton, B. J. and Majumdar, S. J. (2001). Adaptive sampling with the ensemble transform Kalman filter. I: Theoretical aspects. Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 420–362.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bishop, C. H. and Toth, Z. (1999). Ensemble transformation and adaptive observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1748–652.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Browning, K. A., Thorpe, A. J., Montani, A., Parsons, D., Griffiths, M., Panagi, P. and Dicks, E. M. (2000). Interactions of tropopause depressions with an ex-tropical cyclone and sensitivity of forecasts to analysis errors. Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 2734–552.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Buizza, R. and Montani, A. (1999). Targeting observations using singular vectors. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 2965–852.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dabberdt, W. F. and Schlatter, T. W. (1996). Research opportunities from emerging atmospheric observing and modeling capabilities. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 305–232.0.CO;2>CrossRef
Demirtas, M. and Thorpe, A. J. (1999). Sensitivity of short-range weather forecasts to local potential vorticity modifications. Mon. Weather Rev., 127, 922–392.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doerenbecher, A. and Bergot, T. (2001). Sensitivity to observations applied to FASTEX cases. Nonlinear Proc. Geoph., 8, 467–81CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Emanuel, K., Raymond, D., Betts, A., et al. (1995). Report of the First Prospectus Development Team of the US Weather Research Program to NOAA and the NSF. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 76, 1194–208Google Scholar
Hamill, T. M. and Snyder, C. (2002). Using improved background-error covariances from an ensemble Kalman filter for adaptive observations. Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 1552–722.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holland, L., Toth, Z., Moskaitis, J., Majumdar, S., C. Bishop and R. Smith (2004). Results from the Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program 2002–2003. In Proceedings of the 84th Annual Meeting, 11–15 January 2004, Seattle, WA. American Meteorology Society
Joly, A., Jorgensen, D., Shapiro, M. A., et al. (1997). Definition of the Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track Experiment (FASTEX). Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 1917–402.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Langland, R. H. and Rohaly, G. D. (1996). Adjoint-based targeting of observations for FASTEX cyclones. In Preprints, Seventh Conference on Mesoscale Processes. pp. 369–71. American Meteorology SocietyGoogle Scholar
Langland, R. H., Toth, Z., Gelaro, R., et al. (1999). The North Pacific experiment (NORPEX-98): targeted observations for improved North American weather forecasts. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 80, 1363–842.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leutbecher, M. (2003). Reduced rank estimate of forecast error variance changes due to intermittent modifications of the observing network. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 729–422.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leutbecher, M., Barkmeijer, J., Palmer, T. N. and Thorpe, A. J. (2002). Potential improvement of forecasts of two severe storms using targeted observations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 1641–70CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leutbecher, M., Doerenbecher, A., Grazzini, F. and Cardinali, C. (2004). Planning of adaptive observations during the Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign 2003. ECMWF Newsletter, Winter Issue, 102, 16–25Google Scholar
Lorenz, E. N. and Emanuel, K. A. (1998). Optimal sites for supplementary weather observations: simulation with a small model. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 399–4142.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Majumdar, S. J., Etherton, B. J. and Toth, Z. (2002). Adaptive sampling with the ensemble transform Kalman filter. II: Field program implementation. Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 1356–692.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansfield, D., Richardson, D. and Truscott, B. (2005). An overview of the Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign A-TReC. In Proceedings of the 1st THORPEX International Science Symposium, 6–10 December 2004, Montreal
Montani, A., Thorpe, A. J., Buizza, R. and Unden, P. (1999). Forecast skill of the ECMWF model using targeted observations during FASTEX. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 3219–40CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pu, Z.-X., Kalnay, E., Sela, J. and Szunyogh, I. (1997). Sensitivity of forecast error to initial conditions with a quasi-inverse linear method. Mon. Weather Rev., 125, 2479–5032.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Snyder, C. (1996). Summary of an informal workshop on adaptive observations and FASTEX. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 953–61CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Szunyogh, I., Toth, Z., Zimin, A. V., Majumdar, S. J. and Persson, A. (2002). Propagation of the effect of targeted observations: the 2000 Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program. Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 1144–652.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Toth, Z., Szunyogh, I., Majumdar, S., et al. (1999). The 1999 Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program. In Preprints for the 13th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 13–17 September 1999, Denver CO, pp. 27–32. American Meteorology Society
Toth, Z., Szunyogh, I., Bishop, C., et al. (2002). Adaptive observations at NCEP: past, present and future. In Preprints for the 82nd Annual Meeting, Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation and Probabilistic Prediction, 13–17 January 2002, Orlando FL, pp. 185–190. American Meteorology Society

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×