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During the past decade considerable empirical evidence has been accumulated suggesting the stock market adjusts to the arrival of new information in an efficient manner. The studies providing this evidence consist of announcement tests of new publicly available information (such as earnings, stock splits, accounting changes, etc.) on the risk-adjusted return of securities. The specific methodology employed is crucial since it directly affects the results of a test for market efficiency. Following the pioneering work of Ball and Brown [1] and Fama, et al. [15], many researchers [6, 12, 21, 22, 27] have employed a similar methodology in order to test for market efficiency. This cumulative average residual (CAR) methodology consists of: (1) estimating the parameters of the market model based on data in a time period prior (and sometimes subsequent) to an announcement, and (2) analyzing the residuals derived from applying this model to a time period which includes the announcement date.
As an operational objective for firm management, the market value maximization criterion derives its theoretical validity from the Fisherian separation principle which states that production decisions for an economy can be made without regard to consumer-investors' preferences for consumption, given perfectly competitive markets. In other words, if the firm's activities do not affect the prices of consumptive goods, then maximizing the wealth of its shareholders will lead to a maximization of each shareholder's utility. Not only does this optimality criterion avoid the ambiguities and vagaries of constructing an aggregate shareholder preference function, but when implemented as a firm decision rule, should result in the same production plan that each investor would select himself, and thereby should represent a Pareto optimal allocation of resources: (Hirshleifer [5, Chapters 1, 9]; Fama and Miller [3, Chapters 2, 7]; and more recently, Ekern and Wilson [2], Merton-Subrahmanyam [7], LeRoy [6]).
Term structure theories and the related specification of estimating equations are properly viewed as part of the complex multiperiod consumptioninvestment decision, a research area which presents many analytical problems (for a review, see Long [4]). Because of both the complexity and analytical difficulties, yield curve estimation has generally utilized rather ad hoc specifications. Thus, the recent article by Echols and Elliot [1] is to be applauded because it attempts to rigorously derive a yield curve specification based upon the pure expectations model of the term structure of interest rates.
Sharpe's market model [29] is widely used both by academic researchers and practitioners in finance, but it cannot be accepted with complete confidence until some of its basic assumptions are tested more thoroughly. The applicability, usefulness, and reliability of the model are functions of its conformity to real data, which in turn depends partly on the unresolved question of heteroscedasticity.
The decomposition of a security risk into diversifiable (or unsystematic) and nondiversifiable (or systematic) risks has emerged from the portfolio approach of capital investment and has culminated in the well-known Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), developed by Sharpe [4], Lintner [3] and others. In this framework, the diversifiable risk is the risk that can be “washed out” by diversification and the nondiversifiable risk is the risk which cannot be diversified away. It appears to us that the decomposition of risk into its components is in some cases vague and in most cases imprecise. We define the diversifiable and nondiversifiable risk measures as two complementary components of the standard deviation of a security's rate of return. Furthermore, we require thatthe nondiversifiable risk measure will completely determine its equilibrium market price. We shall see that the definition presented is appealing for all securities and particularly for those with negative Beta. To be more specific, recall that a security's β is given by the slope of the following time series regression:
The question of stock market efficiency has received considerable play in the financial press in recent years and understandably so. Not only is this a topic of interest to national policymakers charged with monitoring and promoting market efficiency, but answers to this question have rather important implications for the management of market participants' portfolios. Our interest in this subject focuses on a subsegment of the larger question of market efficiency, in particular on so-called technical theories of stock market behavior.
This study compares the dividend policies of independently owned and bank holding company-affiliated commercial banks. The hypothesis tested is that there exists a significant, positive relationship between the amount of cash dividends paid by a bank and its affiliation with a holding company. The issue is an important one because the distribution of earnings as dividends obviously reduces a bank's ability to generate capital internally, and retained earnings have been the chief source of growth in bank equity capital. For some time the bank supervisory authorities have been concerned over the relative decline in importance of capital in the balance sheet of the average bank, such funds permitting banks to absorb unexpected losses and weather periods of financial crises. Capital adequacy is thus a major consideration in the regulators' assessment of bank dividend policy. Prior research has shown that the banking subsidiaries of bank holding companies have maintained lower capital in relation to assets than have other banks despite achieving greater profitability. Since a bank's capital position is usually positively correlated with its earnings, this implies that affiliated banks have been more generous in paying dividends. Indeed, the statistical evidence of this study indicates that the banking subsidiaries of holding companies paid significantly higher dividends than other banks over the four–year period from 1973 through 1976. Whether or not this has resulted in these firms maintaining less than “adequate” capital is a question that goes far beyond the scope of this paper, but which ultimately must be considered.
This is a book about corporate strategy written for industrial economists. It is intended for students who have already completed an introductory course in economics, and who, therefore, have some familiarity with the conventional theory of the firm. They may also be acquainted with some of the modern revisions to the conventional theory, although such knowledge can probably be treated as an optional extra.
Corporate strategy is concerned with long-term decision taking. It reflects the firm's need to prepare for an uncertain future in an uncertain environment, which may be subject to almost continual change. By contrast, formal economic analysis often concentrates on equilibrium conditions in a world with little or no uncertainty, and, although equilibrium analysis is a powerful tool, it sometimes seems to be far removed from the world of the corporate strategist. Indeed, in casual conversation I have often heard businessmen explaining why they had to reject an “economic” solution for “strategic” reasons. In reality this conflict is more apparent than real, but the appearance is both misleading and unfortunate: misleading, because it ignores the deep insights into strategic behavior which can be developed from the analytical and empirical work of many economists, and unfortunate, because it simultaneously denies the potential usefulness of those insights. I hope that this book may help to dispel some of this misunderstanding by synthesizing a fairly broad range of economic and management literature and relating the economic analysis directly to its strategic context.
The previous chapter reviewed some developments in the theory of the firm in order to provide some early pointers to the way in which economic analysis may assist our understanding of corporate strategy. In this chapter, we first consider the role of the corporate strategist in a little more detail, and then seek to justify that role in principle (section 2.2) and by reference to the experience of corporate planners (section 2.3). At this stage we are still concerned with a very general view of strategic planning. Specific planning problems will be dealt with in later chapters.
The role of the strategist
Our initial definition suggested that the strategist is concerned to identify policies which contribute to the long-term goals of the organization. Implicit in this definition are several intellectual tasks that must face all managers involved in the formulation of corporate strategy. First, they must identify the value systems and the long-term objectives that are to be sought by the members of the organization, including the obligations that are acknowledged to outsiders. Secondly, they must define the current and expected future state of the environment in which the organization operates, so as to pick out the opportunities which may arise and the threats which may have to be faced. Thirdly, they must consider the organization's relative strengths and weaknesses in responding to those opportunities and threats.
A merger or takeover occurs when two or more firms are combined under common ownership. Sometimes a merger is distinguished from a takeover. A “takeover” is then said to occur when one dominant firm acquires the assets of another, whereas a “merger” produces a new firm from a marriage of two more-or-less equal partners. But, in practice, this distinction may be difficult to maintain, as would happen, for example, if a merger were actually effected by means of a takeover bid in which one of the firms offers to buy the assets of the other. We shall therefore use the terms “merger” and “takeover” interchangeably; and when appropriate, we shall refer to the actual, or potential, buying firm as Beta and to the potential victim, or seller, as Sigma.
Our major purpose is to investigate the contribution which mergers can make to the strategic development of a firm. But if we are to do this satisfactorily, we must have some understanding of the institutional constraints that affect merger activity and of the various factors which influence the costs of a takeover. It may also help to have some background knowledge of the history of mergers. With this in mind, our discussion starts in 7.1 with a general review of the procedures involved in a merger, and follows this in 7.2 with a brief historical survey.
When a firm chooses to become more vertically integrated, it is choosing to take on activities that might otherwise have been covered by a market transaction in which it acted as either customer or supplier. This is in direct contrast to the process of diversification, which involves the addition of activities which were previously outside the firm's areas of direct interest and influence, although the activities may have been related as substitutes or complements in the eyes of consumers.
There are many possible motives for integration, and any attempt to classify these motives may involve some ambiguity. Nevertheless it is often fruitful to recognize at least two broad alternatives. First, integration may be undertaken consciously to reduce the costs of manufacturing or distributing existing items. Second, integration may be undertaken for longer-term strategic reasons, to improve the general competitive position and to reduce the risks faced by the firm. However, almost as a third category, we should note that, in some cases, it may be difficult or impossible for a firm to develop at all unless it does so as an integrated unit, because the existing sources of supply are inadequate and cannot develop quickly enough to offer a realistic alternative.
For example, in the early stages of development of the motorcar industry in the United Kingdom, the domestic light-engineering industry was unable to provide satisfactory component supplies, and car manufacturers had to provide capital and know-how to manufacture their own components.
Innovation is a process which involves the adoption of procedures or products which are perceived as being new by the adopter. It is therefore concerned with changes in the established ways of doing things. In many cases, it will result from progress in science and technology, which permits new methods of production, new designs for existing products, or completely new products or services. But innovation is not necessarily tied to prior technical change. It may also reflect changes in (say) marketing techniques or management procedures. Perhaps the clearest example is the growth of self-service retailing, which is a significant innovation with a widespread social impact but very low technological content.
In other cases, the technological input may be significant but invisible, as in the spread of credit-card trading, which has been made possible by advances in electronic data processing to handle the centralized accounts. Conversely, even when the innovation has followed from a technical breakthrough, its successful use will depend upon the social and economic environment as well as upon the technical specifications of the product. Further, although technical change sometimes requires significant preinvestment in research and development, this is not always the case.
No discussion of the direction of strategic growth can be complete without some reference to the increasing importance of multinational activities. The multinational enterprises (MNEs) which own and control income-generating assets in more than one country account for at least one-fifth of the world's output (excluding the centrally planned economies). In the United Kingdom, about one-third of company profits are derived from overseas operations, and about one-half of the one hundred largest manufacturing firms had a quarter or more of their output produced outside the United Kingdom (Dunning 1974, Stopford 1974).
The MNEs comprise a relatively small number of very large enterprises. The Comparative Multinational Enterprise Project run by the Harvard Business School covered those firms on Fortune's list of the 500 largest industrial companies in the United States in 1968 that had manufacturing subsidiaries in at least six foreign countries (187 U.S. companies in all), together with the 200 firms on Fortune's list of the largest non-American industrial companies in 1970. The project therefore surveyed approximately 400 MNEs. It estimated that in 1970 these enterprises operated nearly ten thousand wholly or partially owned foreign manufacturing subsidiaries. (For a convenient summary see Franko 1976, Chap. 1. For more detail see Vaupel and Curhan 1973). At the same time, some of the largest MNEs, such as General Motors or the Exxon Corporation (then Standard Oil of New Jersey), had annual sales which exceeded the gross national product of many countries, including Denmark and Norway (Tugendhat 1971).