The complex socioeconomic landscape of conflict zones demands innovative approaches to assess and predict vulnerabilities for crafting and implementing effective policies by the United Nations (UN) institutions. This article presents a groundbreaking Augmented Intelligence-driven Prediction Model developed to forecast multidimensional vulnerability levels (MVLs) across Afghanistan. Leveraging a symbiotic fusion of human expertise and machine capabilities (e.g., artificial intelligence), the model demonstrates a predictive accuracy ranging between 70% and 80%. This research not only contributes to enhancing the UN Early Warning (EW) Mechanisms but also underscores the potential of augmented intelligence in addressing intricate challenges in conflict-ridden regions. This article outlines the use of augmented intelligence methodology applied to a use case to predict MVLs in Afghanistan. It discusses the key findings of the pilot project, and further proposes a holistic platform to enhance policy decisions through augmented intelligence, including an EW mechanism to significantly improve EW processes, thereby supporting decision-makers in formulating effective policies and fostering sustainable development within the UN.

This article provides a structured description of openly available news topics and forecasts for armed conflict at the national and grid cell level starting January 2010. The news topics, as well as the forecasts, are updated monthly at conflictforecast.org and provide coverage for more than 170 countries and about 65,000 grid cells of size 55 × 55 km worldwide. The forecasts rely on natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning techniques to leverage a large corpus of newspaper text for predicting sudden onsets of violence in peaceful countries. Our goals are a) to support conflict prevention efforts by making our risk forecasts available to practitioners and research teams worldwide, b) to facilitate additional research that can utilize risk forecasts for causal identification, and c) to provide an overview of the news landscape.

This paper examines the potential role of network analysis in understanding the powerful elites that pose a significant threat to peace and state-building within post-conflict contexts. This paper makes a threefold contribution. First, it identifies a caveat in the scholarship surrounding international interventions, shedding light on shortcomings in their design and implementation strategies, and elucidating the influence these elites wield in the political and economic realms. Next, it delineates the essentials of the network analysis approach, addressing the information and data requirements and limitations inherent in its application in conflict environments. Finally, the paper provides valuable insights gleaned from the international operation in Guatemala known as the International Commission for Impunity in Guatemala, which specifically targeted illicit networks. The argument asserts that network analysis functions as a dual-purpose tool—serving as both a descriptive instrument to reveal, identify, and address the root causes of conflict and a predictive tool to enhance peace agreement implementation and improve decision-making. Simultaneously, it underscores the challenge of data analysis and translating network interventions into tangible real-life consequences for long-lasting results.

This paper explores the evolution of the concept of peace in the context of a globalized and digitalized 21st century, proposing a novel vision that shifts from viewing peace as a thing or a condition, to understanding peace as dynamic and relational process that emerges through human interactions. Building on - yet also going beyond - traditional definitions of peace as something to be found through inner reflection (virtue ethics), as the product of reason, contracts and institutions (Enlightenment philosophy), and as the absence of different forms of violence (modern peace research), this paper introduces a new meso-level theory on networks, emphasizing the importance of connections, interactions and relationships in the physical and online worlds. The paper is structured around three main objectives: conceptualizing relational peace in terms of the quantity and quality of interactions, mapping these interactions into networks of peace, and examining how these networks interact with their environment, including the influence of digital transformation and artificial intelligence. By integrating insights from ethical and peace research literature, the paper makes theoretical, conceptual, and methodological contributions towards understanding peace as an emergent property of human behavior. Through this innovative approach, the paper aims to provide clarity on how peace (and violence) emerges through interactions and relations in an increasingly networked and digitalized global society, offering a foundation for future empirical research and concerted policy action in this area. It highlights the need for bridging normative and descriptive sciences to better understand and promote peace in the digital age.

In 2022, the world experienced the deadliest year of armed conflict since the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Much of the intensity and frequency of recent conflicts has drawn more attention to failures in forecasting—that is, a failure to anticipate conflicts. Such capabilities have the potential to greatly reduce the time, motivation, and opportunities peacemakers have to intervene through mediation or peacekeeping operations. In recent years, the growth in the volume of open-source data coupled with the wide-scale advancements in machine learning suggests that it may be possible for computational methods to help the international community forecast intrastate conflict more accurately, and in doing so reduce the rise of conflict. In this commentary, we argue for the promise of conflict forecasting under several technical and policy conditions. From a technical perspective, the success of this work depends on improvements in the quality of conflict-related data and an increased focus on model interpretability. In terms of policy implementation, we suggest that this technology should be used primarily to aid policy analysis heuristically and help identify unexpected conflicts.

This article focuses on measuring the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the peace and security agenda, taking stock of recent initiatives and progress in this area. While there is a keen awareness of the fact that AI can be weaponized to become a tool of power politics and military competition, there is comparatively less systematic attention paid to what technology can do for peace. While it is important to address risk mitigation, equal space should be given to thinking about how to harness the peace potential of AI on a large scale. This study follows a series of publications that aim to assess the impact of technological innovation on peace, also referred to as PeaceTech, Global PeaceTech, peace innovation, or digital peacebuilding. The first section provides an overview of the debate on the impact of AI on peace and conflict. The second section examines conceptual frameworks and measures of the impact of AI on peace and conflict. The third section looks at the risks to peace and conflict posed by the use of AI and possible governance measures to mitigate them. The fourth section provides examples of AI-enabled initiatives that are having a positive impact on peace, providing a compass for public and private investment. The conclusion offers policy recommendations to advance the AI for peace agenda.

In this editorial, we draw insights from a special collection of peer-reviewed papers investigating how new data sources and technology can enhance peace. The collection examines local and global practices that strive towards positive peace through the responsible use of frontier technologies. In particular, the articles of the collection illustrate how advanced techniques—including machine learning, network analysis, specialised text classifiers, and large-scale predictive analytics—can deepen our understanding of conflict dynamics by revealing subtle interdependencies and patterns. Others assess innovative approaches reinterpreting peace as a relational phenomenon. Collectively, they assess ethical, technical, and governance challenges while advocating balanced frameworks that ensure accountability alongside innovation. The collection offers a practical roadmap for integrating technical tools into peacebuilding to foster resilient societies and non-violent conflict transformations.

Originating from a unique partnership between data scientists (datavaluepeople) and peacebuilders (Build Up), this commentary explores an innovative methodology to overcome key challenges in social media analysis by developing customized text classifiers through a participatory design approach, engaging both peace practitioners and data scientists. It advocates for researchers to focus on developing frameworks that prioritize being usable and participatory in field settings, rather than perfect in simulation. Focusing on a case study investigating the polarization within online Christian communities in the United States, we outline a testing process with a dataset consisting of 8954 tweets and 10,034 Facebook posts to experiment with active learning methodologies aimed at enhancing the efficiency and accuracy of text classification. This commentary demonstrates that the inclusion of domain expertise from peace practitioners significantly refines the design and performance of text classifiers, enabling a deeper comprehension of digital conflicts. This collaborative framework seeks to transition from a data-rich, analysis-poor scenario to one where data-driven insights robustly inform peacebuilding interventions.

The international community, and the UN in particular, is in urgent need of wise policies, and a regulatory institution to put data-based systems, notably AI, to positive use and guard against their abuse. Digital transformation and “artificial intelligence (AI)”—which can more adequately be called “data-based systems (DS)”—present ethical opportunities and risks. Helping humans and the planet to flourish sustainably in peace and guaranteeing globally that human dignity is respected not only offline but also online, in the digital sphere, and the domain of DS requires two policy measures: (1) human rights-based data-based systems (HRBDS) and (2) an International Data-Based Systems Agency (IDA): IDA should be established at the UN as a platform for cooperation in the field of digital transformation and DS, fostering human rights, security, and peaceful uses of DS.

This article interrogates three claims made in relation to the use of data in relation to peace. That more data, faster data, and impartial data will lead to better policy and practice outcomes. Taken together, this data myth relies on a lack of curiosity about the provenance of data and the infrastructure that produces it and asserts its legitimacy. Our discussion is concerned with issues of power, inclusion, and exclusion, and particularly how knowledge hierarchies attend to the collection and use of data in relation to conflict-affected contexts. We therefore question the axiomatic nature of these data myth claims and argue that the structure and dynamics of peacebuilding actors perpetuate the myth. We advocate a fuller reflection of the data wave that has overtaken us and echo calls for an ethics of numbers. In other words, this article is concerned with the evidence base for evidence-based peacebuilding. Mindful of the policy implications of our concerns, the article puts forward five tenets of good practice in relation to data and the peacebuilding sector. The concluding discussion further considers the policy implications of the data myth in relation to peace, and particularly, the consequences of casting peace and conflict as technical issues that can be “solved” without recourse to human and political factors.