The precipitation climatology and the underlying climate mechanisms of the eastern Mediterranean, West Asia, and the Indian subcontinent are reviewed, with emphasis on upper and middle tropospheric flow in the subtropics and its steering of precipitation. Holocene climate change of the region is summarized from proxy records. The Indian monsoon weakened during the Holocene over its northernmost region, the Ganges and Indus catchments and the western Arabian Sea. Southern regions, the Indian Peninsula, do not show a reduction, but an increase of summer monsoon rain across the Holocene. The long-term trend towards drier conditions in the eastern Mediterranean can be linked to a regionally complex monsoon evolution. Abrupt climate change events, such as the widespread droughts around 8200, 5200 and 4200 cal yr BP, are suggested to be the result of altered subtropical upper-level flow over the eastern Mediterranean and Asia.

The abrupt climate change events of the Holocene radically altered precipitation, fundamental for cereal agriculture, across the expanse of late prehistoric–early historic cultures known from the archaeological record in these regions. Social adaptations to reduced agro-production, in both dry-farming and irrigation agriculture regions, are visible in the archaeological record during each abrupt climate change event in West Asia. Chronological refinement, in both the paleoclimate and archaeological records, and transfer functions for both precipitation and agro-production are needed to understand precisely the evident causal linkages.

Fabric and stable isotopic composition of a Holocene stalagmite (CR1) from a cave in northern Sicily record changes in paleorainfall in the early Holocene. High δ13C stable isotope values in the calcite deposited from ca. 8500 to ca. 7500 yr ago are interpreted as reflecting periods of high rainfall. The wet phase was interrupted by two periods of multi-century duration characterized by relatively cool and dry winters centered at ca. 8200 and ca. 7500 yr ago, highlighted by low δ13C and δ18O values. A high variability of δ13C values is recorded from ca. 7500 to ca. 6500 yr ago and indicates that the transition from a pluvial early Holocene to the present-day climate conditions was punctuated by decadal-scale periods of relatively dry winters. In northern Sicily, the traditional elements of the Neolithic appear at ca. 7700 yr ago. It is possible that changes in rainfall influenced the passage from hunter-gathering to farming and sheep-herding economies.

We explore the hypothesis that the abrupt drainage of Laurentide lakes and associated rapid switch of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation 8200 yr ago had a catastrophic influence on Neolithic civilisation in large parts of southeastern Europe, Anatolia, Cyprus, and the Near East. The event at 8200 cal yr BP is observed in a large number of high-resolution climate proxies in the Northern Hemisphere, and in many cases corresponds to markedly cold and arid conditions. We identify the relevant archaeological levels of major Neolithic settlements in Central Anatolia, Cyprus, Greece and Bulgaria, and examine published stratigraphic, architectural, cultural and geoarchaeological studies for these sites. The specific archaeological events and processes we observe at a number of these sites during the study interval 8400–8000 cal yr BP lead us to refine some previously established Neolithisation models. The introduction of farming to South-East Europe occurs in all study regions (Thrace, Macedonia, Thessaly, Bulgaria) near 8200 cal yr BP. We observe major disruptions of Neolithic cultures in the Levant, North Syria, South-East Anatolia, Central Anatolia and Cyprus, at the same time. We conclude that the 8200 cal yr BP aridity event triggered the spread of early farmers, by different routes, out of West Asia and the Near East into Greece and Bulgaria.

A comprehensive record of lake level changes in the Dead Sea has been reconstructed using multiple, well dated sediment cores recovered from the Dead Sea shore. Interpreting the lake level changes as monitors of precipitation in the Dead Sea drainage area and the regional eastern Mediterranean palaeoclimate, we document the presence of two major wet phases (∼ 10–8.6 and ∼ 5.6–3.5 cal kyr BP) and multiple abrupt arid events during the Holocene. The arid events in the Holocene Dead Sea appear to coincide with major breaks in the Near East cultural evolution (at ∼ 8.6, 8.2, 4.2, 3.5 cal kyr BP). Wetter periods are marked by the enlargement of smaller settlements and growth of farming communities in desert regions, suggesting a parallelism between climate and Near East cultural development.

Partly laminated sediments were sampled from the brine-filled, anoxic Shaban Deep basin in the northern Red Sea. At about 4200 cal yr BP more than two millennia of anoxic sedimentation is replaced by a sub-oxic facies strongly suggesting the episodic absence of the brine. At the same time stable oxygen isotopes from surface dwelling foraminifera show a sharp increase (within less than 100 yr) pointing to a strong positive salinity anomaly at the sea surface. This major evaporation event significantly enhanced the renewal of deep water and the subsequent ventilation of the small Shaban Deep basin. The timing and strength of the reconstructed environmental changes around 4200 cal yr BP suggest that this event is the regional expression of a major drought event, which is widely observed in the neighboring regions, and which strongly affected Middle East agricultural civilizations.

We present a comprehensive summary of the available palaeoclimate records from India and compare the results from different proxies. The results indicate (i) fluctuating lake levels during the early Holocene. The period of relatively higher lake levels from increased precipitation efficiency was reached only ∼7.2–6.0 cal kyr BP, possibly due to increased contribution from winter rainfall; (ii) the onset of aridity in NW India could have begun as early as ∼5.3 cal kyr BP. Subsequently, there were multiple wet events but of shorter duration and smaller magnitude than during the mid Holocene; (iii) there is evidence of several short term climate events in the proxy record. However, in the absence of a rigorous chronological framework a detailed regional correlation is not possible at this stage. Finally, a comparison between marine and terrestrial records indicates that episodes of strongest and weakest monsoon winds were not always associated with wettest and driest episodes respectively in the NW Indian lakes.

This paper presents new evidence from the Dhamar highlands, Yemen, of paleohydrologic response to fluctuations in Holocene climate. Stratigraphic, geochemical, and chronological analyses of highland peat and lacustrine deposits contribute to knowledge of the timing of early Holocene moisture changes on the Arabian Peninsula, providing a backdrop to understanding early cultural development in the Arabian highlands. The location of the Dhamar highlands, characterized by intermontane valleys surrounded by the highest mountains on the Arabian Peninsula and adjacent to the Indian Ocean is ideal for examining the influence of the Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) on the moisture history of this region. Fluctuations in the lacustrine and paleosol records of the Dhamar highlands reflect both local changes in paleohydrology and regional influences on the Holocene paleoclimatic conditions in southwest Arabia. In addition, a peat deposit with a radiocarbon age of 10,253 ± 10,560 cal yr BP documents some of the earliest Holocene high moisture conditions on the Arabian Peninsula.

Lacustrine sediments from southeastern Arabia reveal variations in lake level corresponding to changes in the strength and duration of Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) summer rainfall and winter cyclonic rainfall. The late glacial/Holocene transition of the region was characterised by the development of mega-linear dunes. These dunes became stabilised and vegetated during the early Holocene and interdunal lakes formed in response to the incursion of the IOM at approximately 8500 cal yr BP with the development of C3 dominated savanna grasslands. The IOM weakened ca. 6000 cal yr BP with the onset of regional aridity, aeolian sedimentation and dune reactivation and accretion. Despite this reduction in precipitation, the lake was maintained by winter dominated rainfall. There was a shift to drier adapted C4 grasslands across the dune field. Lake sediment geochemical analyses record precipitation minima at 8200, 5000 and 4200 cal yr BP that coincide with Bond events in the North Atlantic. A number of these events correspond with changes in cultural periods, suggesting that climate was a key mechanism affecting human occupation and exploitation of this region.

Lake Zeribar sediments covering the time period of the last 25,000 years were examined for the contents of seeds, fruits, Characeae, diatoms, and molluscs. Reconstructions of the variations in the lake water level, salinity, and trophy suggest a sequence of climatic changes. Three pronounced stages of low and varying lake-water level occurred ca. 17,700–15,400, 12,600–12,000, and 10,000–6000 cal yr BP. Some water-level changes were correlated with variations in salinity. The most pronounced increase of salinity occurred 17,700–15,700 and 12,600–12,000 cal yr BP, and less distinct ones occurred about 6400–5900 and 2500 cal yr BP. Diatom assemblages indicated a strong increase of lake trophy ca. 20,200 cal yr BP. Between 6000 and 5000 cal yr BP diatoms characteristic of eutrophy increased in core 63J, and at about 3200 cal yr BP a distinct increase in mesotrophic forms occurred in core 70B. The changes in the occurrence of various organisms indicate increased temperatures about 21,000 cal yr BP, between 15,400 and 12,600, about 12,000, and about 11,700 cal yr BP. The reduced occurrence or disappearance of some of them suggest temperature decreases about 17,700–15,400 and 12,600–12,000 cal yr BP.

A sediment core 7.2 m long from Lake Mirabad, Iran, was examined for loss-on-ignition, mineralogy, oxygen-isotopic composition of authigenic calcite, and trace-element composition of ostracodes to complement earlier pollen and ostracode-assemblage studies. Pollen, ostracode-inferred lake level, and high Sr/Ca ratios indicate that the early Holocene (10000 to 6500 cal yr BP) was drier than the late Holocene. Low δ18O values during this interval are interpreted as resulting from winter-dominated precipitation, characteristic of a Mediterranean climate. Increasing δ18O values after 6500 cal yr BP signal a gradual increase in spring rains, which are present today. A severe 600-yr drought occurred at ca. 5500 cal yr BP, shortly after the transition from pistachio-almond to oak forest. During the late Holocene, two milder droughts occurred at about 1500 and 500 cal yr BP. Within the resolution of the record, no drought is evident during the collapse of the Akkadian empire (4200–3900 cal yr BP). Rather, a decrease in δ18O values to early-Holocene levels may indicate the return to a Mediterranean precipitation regime.