Persistent funding shortfalls undermine protected areas (PAs) worldwide, yet few studies analyse these patterns across space and time. We examined funding deficits in 300 Brazilian federal PAs from 2014 to 2023 using spatial Durbin error models. Deficits were measured as the gap between evidence-based minimum management costs and actual spending. We analysed how PA age, size, management group, ecological region, population density and per capita GDP predict deficits, decomposing socioeconomic effects into direct and spillover components. In 2023, 72% of the PAs faced deficits totalling 958 million international dollars, despite a 30% investment increase over the decade. Larger PAs had greater shortfalls; older PAs had smaller ones. Amazon PAs averaged 79.2% deficits versus 27.6% in the Atlantic Forest. No significant difference emerged between management types. Higher population density predicted lower deficits, probably reflecting greater political visibility near urban centres. No direct local GDP effect was detected, but spillovers from neighbouring high-income regions suggest regional prosperity influences PA funding through spatial networks. Funding deteriorated in 2020–2021 amid fiscal contractions and policy shifts, then recovered in 2022–2023. These findings reveal deep structural inequities, particularly in the Amazon, highlighting the need for transparent national PA financing systems.

Tropical forests provide essential ecosystem services (ESs) that sustain local livelihoods, yet rural Amazonian communities – among those most dependent on these services – remain under-represented in empirical valuation studies, limiting the integration of local conservation values into policy design. This study addresses this gap by estimating the willingness to pay (WTP) for ES conservation and the relative economic effort (WTP/income ratio) in two rural communities of the Peruvian Amazon: San Joaquín de Omaguas and Santa Clara de Nanay. Using a dichotomous contingent valuation format, 481 households were surveyed in 2024, and WTP was estimated through logit models following National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) guidelines. The results indicate an average WTP of PEN 3.076 (USD 0.86) per month – equivalent to 0.50% of income – representing a higher relative effort than is typically reported in high-income countries and consistent with the lower bound of values observed in low-income settings. Education, household size and local origin increased WTP, whereas income showed a negative association. These findings align with international evidence showing that education and social-relational values rather than income are the key drivers of WTP in low-income contexts. Despite these efforts, aggregate local contributions would be insufficient to finance conservation actions. Therefore, context-sensitive financial mechanisms – such as community environmental funds, differentiated contribution schemes and external co-financing – are needed to ensure equity and sustainability. This study contributes original empirical evidence from low-income Amazonian communities and highlights the relevance of the WTP/income ratio as a comparative indicator to inform equitable and transparent conservation finance.

In spite of contributing to social, economic and cultural well-being, wetlands in the Indian Himalayan Region have seen rapid degradation due to unplanned anthropogenic activities. We analysed spatiotemporal wetland dynamics in Srinagar (1991–2031) using remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems. The future land cover for 2031 was projected using an artificial neural network–multi-layer perceptron and cellular automata model. Change detection in the open water area of Dal Lake and its 2-km peri-lacustrine zone was conducted to identify land-cover transition patterns. Furthermore, wetland landscape pattern changes were quantified using landscape metrics to assess fragmentation and spatial configuration over time. The results reveal that, from 1991 to 2021, wetlands decreased from 16.12 to 7.2 km2, with the open surface water area of Dal Lake and its 2-km peri-lacustrine zone declining from 9.77 to 6.39 km2. The land cover projected for 2031 indicates that the total wetland area may decrease to 5.62 km2. Landscape metrics indicated increasing fragmentation and decreasing contiguity among wetland patches, as revealed by fluctuating shape complexity and aggregation, primarily due to conversions to agricultural land, fallow land and built-up areas.

Tropical dry forests (TDFs), which comprise 40% of tropical forests and are most widespread in the Neotropics, remain under-researched. TDFs support high biodiversity and are inhabited by many Indigenous communities, making their degradation a critical socio-environmental problem, yet local drivers of deforestation are overlooked. Mexico holds the largest extent of TDFs, yet these ecosystems face high levels of disturbance and limited protection. This study models the impacts of global environmental change on a TDF in southern Mexico, focusing on land-cover dynamics, biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people. We applied spatially explicit land-cover modelling under three long-term scenarios (Optimistic, Business as Usual and Pessimistic) based on varying rates of change, climate and socioeconomic conditions. Drivers were dynamically updated to reflect plausible trajectories. By overlaying land cover with species distribution data, we identified farming expansion as the primary threat to 35 endemic vertebrate species, 27 of which face a high risk of extinction. This biodiversity loss compromises ecosystem functioning and weakens the resilience of local communities. We recommend integrating conservation with Indigenous participation in sustainable land-use practices, aligned with the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework to halt species extinction and conserve ecosystems.