9 results
Ten new insights in climate science 2023
- Mercedes Bustamante, Joyashree Roy, Daniel Ospina, Ploy Achakulwisut, Anubha Aggarwal, Ana Bastos, Wendy Broadgate, Josep G. Canadell, Edward R. Carr, Deliang Chen, Helen A. Cleugh, Kristie L. Ebi, Clea Edwards, Carol Farbotko, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Thomas L. Frölicher, Sabine Fuss, Oliver Geden, Nicolas Gruber, Luke J. Harrington, Judith Hauck, Zeke Hausfather, Sophie Hebden, Aniek Hebinck, Saleemul Huq, Matthias Huss, M. Laurice P. Jamero, Sirkku Juhola, Nilushi Kumarasinghe, Shuaib Lwasa, Bishawjit Mallick, Maria Martin, Steven McGreevy, Paula Mirazo, Aditi Mukherji, Greg Muttitt, Gregory F. Nemet, David Obura, Chukwumerije Okereke, Tom Oliver, Ben Orlove, Nadia S. Ouedraogo, Prabir K. Patra, Mark Pelling, Laura M. Pereira, Åsa Persson, Julia Pongratz, Anjal Prakash, Anja Rammig, Colin Raymond, Aaron Redman, Cristobal Reveco, Johan Rockström, Regina Rodrigues, David R. Rounce, E. Lisa F. Schipper, Peter Schlosser, Odirilwe Selomane, Gregor Semieniuk, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tasneem A. Siddiqui, Vartika Singh, Giles B. Sioen, Youba Sokona, Detlef Stammer, Norman J. Steinert, Sunhee Suk, Rowan Sutton, Lisa Thalheimer, Vikki Thompson, Gregory Trencher, Kees van der Geest, Saskia E. Werners, Thea Wübbelmann, Nico Wunderling, Jiabo Yin, Kirsten Zickfeld, Jakob Zscheischler
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- Journal:
- Global Sustainability / Volume 7 / 2024
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 01 December 2023, e19
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Non-technical summary
We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems.
Technical summaryThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitutes an unmatched resource for researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding of climate change across diverse research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesize significant research advances. We collected input from experts on various fields using an online questionnaire and prioritized a set of 10 key research insights with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) the looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges to scale-up carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future natural carbon sinks, (5) the need for joint governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in understanding compound events, (7) accelerated mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility amidst climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We present a succinct account of these insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy-relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a policy report contributing to elevate climate science every year in time for the United Nations Climate Change Conference.
Social media summaryWe highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research – with input from more than 200 experts.
Healthcare-associated infections on the intensive care unit in 21 Brazilian hospitals during the early months of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: An ecological study
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- Ana Paula M. Porto, Igor C. Borges, Lewis Buss, Anna Machado, Bil R. Bassetti, Brunno Cocentino, Camila S. Bicalho, Claudia M.D.M. Carrilho, Cristhieni Rodrigues, Eudes A.S. Neto, Evelyne S. Girão, Filipe Piastrelli, Giovanna Sapienza, Glaucia Varkulja, Karin Kolbe, Luciana Passos, Patricia Esteves, Pollyana Gitirana, Regia D.F. Feijó, Rosane L. Coutinho, Thais Guimarães, Tiago L.L. Ferraz, Anna S. Levin, Silvia F. Costa
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- Journal:
- Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology / Volume 44 / Issue 2 / February 2023
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 18 March 2022, pp. 284-290
- Print publication:
- February 2023
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Objective:
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused a global health crisis and may have affected healthcare-associated infection (HAI) prevention strategies. We evaluated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HAI incidence in Brazilian intensive care units (ICUs).
Methods:In this ecological study, we compared adult patients admitted to the ICU from April through June 2020 (pandemic period) with the same period in 2019 (prepandemic period) in 21 Brazilian hospitals. We used the Wilcoxon signed rank-sum test in a pairwise analysis to compare the following differences between the pandemic and the prepandemic periods: microbiologically confirmed central-line–associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) and ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) incidence density (cases per 1,000 central line and ventilator days, respectively), the proportion of organisms that caused HAI, and antibiotic consumption (DDD).
Results:We detected a significant increase in median CLABSI incidence during the pandemic: 1.60 (IQR, 0.44–4.20) vs 2.81 (IQR, 1.35–6.89) (P = .002). We did not detect a significant difference in VAP incidence between the 2 periods. In addition, we detected a significant increase in the proportion of CLABSI caused by Enterococcus faecalis and Candida spp during the pandemic, although only the latter retained statistical significance after correction for multiple comparisons. We did not detect a significant change in ceftriaxone, piperacillin–tazobactam, meropenem, or vancomycin consumption between the studied periods.
Conclusions:There was an increase in CLABSI incidence in Brazilian ICUs during the first months of COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, we detected an increase in the proportion of CLABSI caused by E. faecalis and Candida spp during this period. CLABSI prevention strategies must be reinforced in ICUs during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Artificial Neural Networks Applied to Prediction to Assess the Likelihood of Surgical Site Infection in Different Surgeries
- Flávio Souza, Braulio Couto, Felipe Leandro Andrade da Conceição, Gabriel Henrique Silvestre da Silva, Igor Gonçalves Dias, Rafael Vieira Magno Rigueira, Gustavo Maciel Pimenta, Maurilio Martins, Julio Cesar Mendes, Vladimir Alexei Rodrigues Rocha, Ana Luiza de Oliveira Rocha, Breno Henrique Colares Silva, Bruna Stella Vieira do Nascimento, Carolina Nunes Dutra, Luiza Pedrosa Gomes, Maria Clara Vilaça, Julia D. O. Matias, Laís L. de Araújo, Luaan S. Rossati, Layna R. Polidoro
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- Journal:
- Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology / Volume 41 / Issue S1 / October 2020
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 02 November 2020, p. s129
- Print publication:
- October 2020
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Background: Based on data obtained from hospitals in the city of Belo Horizonte (population ~3,000,000), we evaluated relevant factors such as death, age, duration of surgery, potential for contamination and surgical site infection, plastic surgery, and craniotomy. The possibility of predicting surgical site infection (SSI) was then analyzed using pattern recognition algorithms based on MLP (multilayer perceptron). Methods: Data were collected by the hospital infection control committees (CCIHs) in hospitals in Belo Horizonte between 2016 and 2018. The noisy records were filtered, and the occurrences were analyzed. Finally, the predictive power of SSI of 5 types MLP was evaluated experimentally: momentum, backpropagation standard, weight decay, resilient propagation, and quick propagation. The model used 3, 5, 7, and 10 neurons in the occult layer and with resamples varied the number of records for testing (65% and 75%) and for validation (35% and 25%). Comparisons were made by measuring the AUC (area under the curve (range, 0–1). Results: From 1,096 records of craniotomy, 289 were usable for analysis. Moreover, 16% died; averaged age was 56 years (range, 40–65); mean time of surgery was 186 minutes (range, 95–250 minutes); the number of hospitalizations ranged from 1 (90.6%) to 8 (0.3%). Contamination among these cases was rated as follows: 2.7% contaminated, 23.5% potentially contaminated, 72.3% clean. The SSI rate reached 4%. The prediction process in AUCs ranged from 0.7 to 0.994. In plastic surgery, from 3,693 records, 1,099 were intact, with only 1 case of SSI and no deaths. The average age for plastic surgery was 41 years (range, 16–91); the average time of surgery was 218.5 minutes (range, 19–580 minutes); the number of hospitalizations ranged from 1 (77.4%) to 6 times (0.001%). Contamination among these cases was rated as follows: 27.90% potential contamination, 1.67% contaminated, and 0.84% infected. The prediction process ranged in AUCs from 0.2 to 0.4. Conclusions: We identified a high noise index in both surgeries due to subjectivity at the time of data collection. The profiles of each surgery in the statistical analyses were different, which was reflected in the analyzed structures. The MLP for craniotomy surgery demonstrated relevant predictive power and can guide intelligent monitoring software (available in www.sacihweb.com). However, for plastic surgeries, MLPs need more SSI samples to optimize outcomes. To optimize data collection and to enable other hospitals to use the SSI prediction tool, a mobile application was developed.
Disclosures: None
Funding: None
Effectiveness of school–home intervention for adolescent obesity prevention: parallel school randomised study
- Michele R. Sgambato, Diana B. Cunha, Bárbara S. N. Souza, Viviana T. Henriques, Renata R. M. Rodrigues, Ana L. V. Rêgo, Rosangela A. Pereira, Edna M. Yokoo, Rosely Sichieri
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- Journal:
- British Journal of Nutrition / Volume 122 / Issue 9 / 14 November 2019
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 25 July 2019, pp. 1073-1080
- Print publication:
- 14 November 2019
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Many school-based interventions for obesity prevention have been proposed with positive changes in behaviour, but with unsatisfactory results on weight change. The objective was to verify the effectiveness of a combined school- and home-based obesity prevention programme on excessive weight gain in adolescents. Teachers delivered the school-based primary prevention programme to fifth- and sixth-graders (nine schools, forty-eight control classes, forty-nine intervention classes), which included encouraging healthy eating habits and physical activity. A subgroup of overweight or obese adolescents also received a home-based secondary prevention programme delivered by community health professionals. Schools were randomised to intervention or control group. Intent-to-treat analysis used mixed models for repeated continuous measures and considered the cluster effect. The main outcomes were changes in BMI and percentage body fat (%body fat) after one school-year of intervention and follow-up. Against our hypothesis, BMI increased more in the intervention group than in the control group (Δ = 0·3 kg/m2; P = 0·05) with a greater decrease in %body fat among boys (Δ = –0·6 %; P = 0·03) in the control group. The intervention group increased physical activity by 12·5 min per week compared with the control group. Female adolescents in the intervention group ate healthier items more frequently than in the control group. The subgroup that received both the school and home interventions had an increase in %body fat than in the control group (Δ = 0·89 %; P = 0·01). In the present study, a behavioural change led to a small increase in physical activity and healthy eating habits but also to an overall increase in food intake.
Weight gain in the first two years of life, asthma and atopy: the SCAALA cohort study
- Sheila MA Matos, Sandra R Jesus, Silvia RDM Saldiva, Matildes S Prado, Silvana D'Innocenzo, Ana MO Assis, Laura C Rodrigues, Neuza M Alcantara-Neves, Álvaro A Cruz, Silvia de Magalhães Simões, Rosemeire L Fiaccone, Maurício L Barreto
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- Journal:
- Public Health Nutrition / Volume 17 / Issue 11 / November 2014
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 28 October 2013, pp. 2537-2545
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Objective
To evaluate the association between weight gain in the first two years of life and the occurrence of wheezing, asthma, serum IgE, skin reactivity and pulmonary function.
DesignCohort study.
SettingThe metropolitan region of Salvador, Bahia, Brazil.
SubjectsThe association was studied between 1997 and 2005 in 669 children up to 11 years of age. Data were collected on asthma and risk factors, both current factors and those present in the first years of life. Weight gain was considered fast when the Z-score was >0·67. Poisson regression was used in the multivariate statistical analysis.
ResultsWheezing was reported in 25·6 % of the children. Weight gain was considered fast (Z-score >0·67) in 29·6 % of the children and slow (Z-score <−0·67) in 13·9 %. Children in the slow weight gain group had 36 % fewer symptoms of asthma (prevalence ratio = 0·65; 95 % CI 0·42, 0·99).
ConclusionsSlower weight gain in the early years of life may constitute a protective factor against symptoms of asthma. The relevance of this finding for public health is not yet certain, since it is known that children with slow and fast weight gain may be more likely to develop adverse health consequences related to both these situations.
Contributors
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- By Krista Adamek, Ana Luisa K. Albernaz, J. Marcio Ayres†, Andrew J. Baker, Karen L. Bales, Adrian A. Barnett, Christopher Barton, John M. Bates, Jennie Becker, Bruna M. Bezerra, Júlio César Bicca-Marques, Richard Bodmer, Jean P. Boubli, Mark Bowler, Sarah A. Boyle, Christini Barbosa Caselli, Janice Chism, Elena P. Cunningham, José Maria C. da Silva, Lesa C. Davies, Nayara de Alcântara Cardoso, Manuella A. de Souza, Stella de la Torre, Ana Gabriela de Luna, Thomas R. Defler, Anthony Di Fiore, Eduardo Fernandez-Duque, Stephen F. Ferrari, Wilsea M.B. Figueiredo-Ready, Tracy Frampton, Paul A. Garber, Brian W. Grafton, L. Tremaine Gregory, Maria L. Harada, Amy Harrison-Levine, Walter C. Hartwig, Stefanie Heiduck, Eckhard W. Heymann, André Hirsch, Leandro Jerusalinsky, Gareth Jones, Richard F. Kay, Martin M. Kowalewski, Shawn M. Lehman, Laura Marsh, Jesús Martinez, William A. Mason, Hope Matthews, Wynlyn McBride, Shona McCann-Wood, W. Scott McGraw, D. Jeffrey Meldrum, Sally P. Mendoza, Nohelia Mercado, Russell A. Mittermeier, Mirjam N. Nadjafzadeh, Marilyn A. Norconk, Robert Gary Norman, Marcela Oliveira, Marcelo M. Oliveira, Maria Juliana Ospina Rodríguez, Erwin Palacios, Suzanne Palminteri, Liliam P. Pinto, Marcio Port-Carvalho, Leila Porter, Carlos Portillo-Quintero, George Powell, Ghillean T. Prance, Rodrigo C. Printes, Pablo Puertas, P. Kirsten Pullen, Helder L. Queiroz, Luis Reginaldo R. Rodrigues, Adriana Rodríguez, Alfred L. Rosenberger, Anthony B. Rylands, Ricardo R. Santos, Horacio Schneider, Eleonore Z.F. Setz, Suleima S.B. Silva, José S. Silva Júnior, Andrew T. Smith, Marcelo C. Sousa, Antonio S. Souto, Wilson R. Spironello, Masanaru Takai, Marcelo F. Tejedor, Cynthia L. Thompson, Diego G. Tirira, Raul Tupayachi, Bernardo Urbani, Liza M. Veiga, Marianela Velilla, João Valsecchi, Jean-Christophe Vié, Tatiana M. Vieira, Suzanne E. Walker-Pacheco, Rob Wallace, Patricia C. Wright, Charles E. Zartman
- Edited by Liza M. Veiga, Universidade Federal do Pará, Brazil, Adrian A. Barnett, Roehampton University, London, Stephen F. Ferrari, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, Brazil, Marilyn A. Norconk, Kent State University, Ohio
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- Evolutionary Biology and Conservation of Titis, Sakis and Uacaris
- Published online:
- 05 April 2013
- Print publication:
- 11 April 2013, pp xii-xv
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Overweight, asthma symptoms, atopy and pulmonary function in children of 4–12 years of age: findings from the SCAALA cohort in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- Sheila MA Matos, Sandra R Jesus, Silvia RDM Saldiva, Matildes S Prado, Silvana D'Innocenzo, Ana MO Assis, Laura C Rodrigues, Neuza M Alcantara-Neves, Álvaro A Cruz, Silvia de Magalhães Simões, Maurício L Barreto
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- Journal:
- Public Health Nutrition / Volume 14 / Issue 7 / 09 June 2011
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 13 April 2011, pp. 1270-1278
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Objective
To evaluate the association between overweight and the occurrence of asthma and atopy in a cohort of children of 4–12 years of age living in the city of Salvador in 2005.
DesignCross-sectional study nested in a cohort.
SettingThe metropolitan region of Salvador, Bahia, Brazil.
SubjectsThe study included 1129 children of 4–12 years age who presented complete information on the variables used here. Skin tests for allergy, spirometry, faecal parasitology, serum IgE and anthropometric surveys were conducted. Poisson's multivariate regression was adopted.
ResultsWheezing was found in 29·1% and asthma in 22·8% of children, both conditions being more common in those under 6 years of age and 34% more common in overweight children (prevalence ratio (PR) = 1·34; 95% CI 1·07, 1·67) following adjustment. The ratio between forced expiratory volume in 1s and forced vital capacity was associated with overweight (PR = 1·35; 95% CI 1·11, 1·61). No statistically significant association was found between overweight and allergen-specific IgE or with wheezing.
ConclusionsThese results are in agreement with the hypothesis that overweight is associated with asthma and pulmonary function, even following adjustment for intervening variables known to be associated with the pathogeny of asthma.
12 - Conservation status and geographic distribution of avian evolutionary history
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- By Thomas M. Brooks, Conservation Synthesis Department, Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, 1919 M St, NW Suite 600, Washington, DC 20036, USA, John D. Pilgrim, Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, 1919 M St, NW Suite 600, Washington, DC 20036, USA, Ana S. L. Rodrigues, Conservation Synthesis Department, Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, 1919 M St, NW Suite 600, Washington, DC 20036, USA, Gustavo A. B. Da Fonseca, Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, 1919 M St, NW Suite 600, Washington, DC 20036, USA
- Edited by Andrew Purvis, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London, John L. Gittleman, University of Virginia, Thomas Brooks, Conservation International, Washington DC
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- Phylogeny and Conservation
- Published online:
- 04 December 2009
- Print publication:
- 22 September 2005, pp 267-294
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Summary
INTRODUCTION
Phylogeny affects conservation at multiple levels. At the level of the vision of conservation – of the long-term persistence of the processes that maintain biodiversity – phylogeny informs how we should represent these evolutionary processes (see, for example, Chapter 11). At the level of the goal of conservation – of representing the planet's biodiversity in a comprehensive conservation system – phylogeny reveals the units requiring representation (see, for example, Chapter 2). Finally, at the level of conservation strategies, phylogeny gives an extra dimension of biodiversity value that can be incorporated into conservation prioritisation (see, for example, Chapter 5). Here, we explore this third level.
Efficient biodiversity conservation requires systematic prioritisation of efforts; ad hoc planning has significant economic and societal costs (Pressey 1994). In a major review of systematic conservation planning, Margules & Pressey (2000) conceptualised the framework for conservation strategy as requiring two variables: ‘irreplaceability’ and ‘vulnerability’. Irreplaceability refers to uniqueness, or the extent to which a given biodiversity feature will be needed to contribute to a set of conservation values; vulnerability refers to threat, or probability of loss of biodiversity value (Pressey & Taffs 2001). This framework was originally conceived as operating across geographic space (i.e. applied to the prioritisation of sites, whether specific protected sites or broad biogeographic regions). Here, we extend the concept to application across phylogenetic space: prioritisation between species. Throughout this chapter, ‘irreplaceability’ and ‘uniqueness’ are used interchangeably, as are ‘vulnerability’ and ‘threat’.
5 - Integrating phylogenetic diversity in the selection of priority areas for conservation: does it make a difference?
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- By Ana S. L. Rodrigues, Conservation Synthesis Department, Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, 1919 M St, NW Suite 600, Washington, DC 20036, USA, Thomas M. Brooks, Conservation Synthesis Department, Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, 1919 M St, NW Suite 600, Washington, DC 20036, USA, Kevin J. Gaston, Biodiversity and Macroecology Group, Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
- Edited by Andrew Purvis, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London, John L. Gittleman, University of Virginia, Thomas Brooks, Conservation International, Washington DC
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- Phylogeny and Conservation
- Published online:
- 04 December 2009
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- 22 September 2005, pp 101-119
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Summary
INTRODUCTION
Species are the most frequently used currency of biological diversity (see, for example, Gaston 1996). However, they are not equivalent in terms of the amount of unique evolutionary history they represent, and that would be irreversibly lost if they became extinct (May 1990; Vane-Wright et al. 1991). Classical examples of species that embody disproportionate amounts of evolutionary history are the tuataras (Sphenodon punctatus and S. guntheri), iguana-like reptiles that are the sole survivors of the order Sphenodontia, and the welwitschia (Welwitschia mirabilis), a gymnosperm that is the single representative of the order Welwitschiales (Daugherty et al. 1990; von Willert 1994).
Phylogenetic diversity (PD) is a biodiversity measure that takes account of phylogenetic relationships (and hence evolutionary history) between taxa (Faith 1992, 1994a; Polasky et al. 2001; Rodrigues & Gaston 2002a). The phylogenetic diversity contained in the species that exist today is part of the raw material on which future evolutionary processes will operate. Keeping these pieces is fundamental to leaving the options open for future evolution (Moritz 2002). However, previous studies indicate that PD is being lost at a faster rate than expected from species loss (Purvis et al. 2000; von Euler 2001), and that PD is not evenly distributed throughout the planet (Sechrest et al. 2002), suggesting that conservation action may need to target evolutionary history directly.
For a given clade, the extent to which phylogenetic diversity is more or less evenly spread across species is determined by the structure of the phylogenetic tree.