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Use of intensive longitudinal methods (e.g. ecological momentary assessment, passive sensing) and machine learning (ML) models to predict risk for depression and suicide has increased in recent years. However, these studies often vary considerably in length, ML methods used, and sources of data. The present study examined predictive accuracy for depression and suicidal ideation (SI) as a function of time, comparing different combinations of ML methods and data sources.
Methods
Participants were 2459 first-year training physicians (55.1% female; 52.5% White) who were provided with Fitbit wearable devices and assessed daily for mood. Linear [elastic net regression (ENR)] and non-linear (random forest) ML algorithms were used to predict depression and SI at the first-quarter follow-up assessment, using two sets of variables (daily mood features only, daily mood features + passive-sensing features). To assess accuracy over time, models were estimated iteratively for each of the first 92 days of internship, using data available up to that point in time.
Results
ENRs using only the daily mood features generally had the best accuracy for predicting mental health outcomes, and predictive accuracy within 1 standard error of the full 92 day models was attained by weeks 7–8. Depression at 92 days could be predicted accurately (area under the curve >0.70) after only 14 days of data collection.
Conclusions
Simpler ML methods may outperform more complex methods until passive-sensing features become better specified. For intensive longitudinal studies, there may be limited predictive value in collecting data for more than 2 months.
Mars exploration motivates the search for extraterrestrial life, the development of space technologies, and the design of human missions and habitations. Here, we seek new insights and pose unresolved questions relating to the natural history of Mars, habitability, robotic and human exploration, planetary protection, and the impacts on human society. Key observations and findings include:
– high escape rates of early Mars' atmosphere, including loss of water, impact present-day habitability;
– putative fossils on Mars will likely be ambiguous biomarkers for life;
– microbial contamination resulting from human habitation is unavoidable; and
– based on Mars' current planetary protection category, robotic payload(s) should characterize the local martian environment for any life-forms prior to human habitation.
Some of the outstanding questions are:
– which interpretation of the hemispheric dichotomy of the planet is correct;
– to what degree did deep-penetrating faults transport subsurface liquids to Mars' surface;
– in what abundance are carbonates formed by atmospheric processes;
– what properties of martian meteorites could be used to constrain their source locations;
– the origin(s) of organic macromolecules;
– was/is Mars inhabited;
– how can missions designed to uncover microbial activity in the subsurface eliminate potential false positives caused by microbial contaminants from Earth;
– how can we ensure that humans and microbes form a stable and benign biosphere; and
– should humans relate to putative extraterrestrial life from a biocentric viewpoint (preservation of all biology), or anthropocentric viewpoint of expanding habitation of space?
Studies of Mars' evolution can shed light on the habitability of extrasolar planets. In addition, Mars exploration can drive future policy developments and confirm (or put into question) the feasibility and/or extent of human habitability of space.
We report on the effect of the International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium's (INICC) multidimensional approach for the reduction of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) in adult patients hospitalized in 21 intensive-care units (ICUs), from 14 hospitals in 10 Indian cities. A quasi-experimental study was conducted, which was divided into baseline and intervention periods. During baseline, prospective surveillance of VAP was performed applying the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/National Healthcare Safety Network definitions and INICC methods. During intervention, our approach in each ICU included a bundle of interventions, education, outcome and process surveillance, and feedback of VAP rates and performance. Crude stratified rates were calculated, and by using random-effects Poisson regression to allow for clustering by ICU, the incidence rate ratio for each time period compared with the 3-month baseline was determined. The VAP rate was 17·43/1000 mechanical ventilator days during baseline, and 10·81 for intervention, showing a 38% VAP rate reduction (relative risk 0·62, 95% confidence interval 0·5–0·78, P = 0·0001).
Bidirectional reflectance of a surface is defined as the ratio of the scattered radiation at the detector to the incident irradiance as a function of geometry. Accurate knowledge of the bidirectional reflection function for layers composed of discrete, randomly positioned scattering particles is essential for many remote sensing, engineering, and biophysical applications, as well as for different areas of astrophysics. Computations of bidirectional reflection functions for plane parallel particulate layers are usually reduced to solving the radiative transfer equation by the existing techniques. In this work we present our laboratory data on bidirectional reflectance versus phase angle for two sample sizes of alumina, 0.3 and 1 μm, for the He–Ne laser at wavelengths of 632.8 nm (red) and 543.5 nm (green). The nature of the phase curves of the asteroids depends on the parameters like particle size, composition, porosity, roughness, etc. In the present study we analyze data which are being generated using a single scattering phase function, that is, Mie theory of treating particles as a compact sphere. The well-known Hapke formula, along with different particle phase functions such as Mie and Henyey–Greenstein, will be used to model the laboratory data obtained at the asteroid laboratory of Assam University.
Over a 2-year period, 25 families comprising of 181 individuals of all ages were longitudinally observed for the excretion of Campylobacter species. Faecal samples were taken from all persons with diarrhoea. Specimens were also taken from apparently healthy individuals and from domestic animals living within the confines of the study families at monthly intervals.
The overall diarrhoea attack rate was 19 episodes per 100 person-years with peak incidence in the 1- to 4-year-old age group (76/100 person-years). Eight (11·5%) of the total episodes were campylobacter-associated and the overall rate of campylobacter positive diarrhoeal episodes were 2·2 per 100 person-years. Of the 1002 stool samples from healthy individuals 32 (3·2/100 samples) were positive for campylobacter. The organism was most frequently isolated from children under 1 year of age both during diarrhoeal episodes (11·5 per 100 person-years) and non-diarrhoeal (11·1 per 100 samples). Multiple infections in a family were rare. In 19·4% of the occasions one or more animals were campylobacter positive. However, only in 7·7% of these occasions was a human infection recorded within 1 month after the animal was found to be positive.
The study showed that the epidemiology of campylobacteriosis in this community was distinct compared to that observed in developed countries.
Mierofilariae of Litomosoides carinii and Dipetalonema viteae absorbed about ten times as much diethylcarbamazine (DEC) as did their adults, but bound much less. The higher uptake of DEC by the microfilariae might be related to the fact that DEC is microfilariae Binding of DEC: with the parasites supports the view that the microfilarcidal action begins with the fixation of the drug to the microfilariae.
The filarial parasites Litomosoides carinii and Dipetalonema viteae both show transcuticular uptake of adenosine 3′, 5′-cyclic monophosphate but isoproterenol is taken up by D. viteae only. The importance of this difference is discussed from the point of view of metabolic regulation. Inhibition of uptake by lectins indicates the involvement of surface sugar moieties in the transport processes.
Moisture movement through soil under trickle irrigation was studied in the laboratory at the Central Soil Salinity Research Institute, West Bengal, in 1988/89. Using a cylindrical flow model, the finite difference technique was used to compute the 2-dimensional moisture distributions and wetting front advancements in soils with clay contents ranging from 22·1 to 51·8%. Seven-day cyclic irrigations, each day having one on-cycle (infiltration) with a constant trickle discharge of 0·3 litre/h for 12 h and one off-cycle (redistribution) for 12 h, were used with two water qualities, EC 0·15 and 0·64 S/m. Moisture distributions were measured in artificially packed soil columns 60 cm high and 56 cm in diameter. The degree of agreement between the theoretical and observed values was expressed by Relative Error Percent (REP), defined as the difference between the two, divided by the observed value and expressed as a percentage. The mean REP ranged from 0 to 30, 62·5% of the values falling in the range 0–10, 22·5% from 10 to 20, and 15% from 20 to 30, irrespective of soil texture, water salinity or the irrigation cycle used. It was concluded that the theoretical data closely matched the experimental results. The wetting front in the soil columns was defined as the minimum detectable increase in moisture (10-3 cc/cc) from the initial content, and its advancement was calculated over the entire period of on-off cycles. This model was also used to calculate, for one soil, the theoretical moisture distribution under trickle irrigation with simultaneous loss by evaporation, which is an essential component of field moisture balance.
The problem has been examined using a kinematic model for wall pliability, wherein a kinematic postulation of the wall boundary conditions is made. A form of the normalized wall-displacement and its phase are used as additional parameters in an extended eigenvalue problem. Using this technique the entire gamut of possibilities regarding stability of flow past (normally) pliable walls can be examined, yet without recourse to any specific material properties for the wall. Rather, the results based on the kinematic model can be used to back-calculate the material properties corresponding to any chosen model for the dynamics of the wall. A sample back calculation is discussed herein for the Benjamin–Landahl wall model, and based on this some predictions are made regarding both stabilization of the flow and physical realizability of modes. It is believed that the kinematic model will prove useful in further understanding of the problem, and in the design of stabilizing coatings.
The results show that there are three important ‘mode classes’ (distinct from ‘modes’), namely the Tollmien–Schlichting (TS), resonant (R) and Kelvin–Helmholtz (KH). Whereas the TS and R mode classes broadly agree with modes bearing similar names as found by earlier workers, the present KH mode class is difficult to classify based on earlier work. Moreover, there are also important transitional mode classes in the regions of bifurcations of the regular mode classes.
Two important concepts evolve in connection with the TS and R mode classes, namely the existence of ‘stable pockets’ for the former and ‘unstable pockets’ for the latter. It is also confirmed herein that there are conflicting requirements on the damping d to stabilize TS and R modes. Considering these points it has been suggested that TS and R modes be avoided by keeping soft surfaces as compliant coatings. However, this in turn leads to instabilities from one of the transitional mode classes. It is also seen that a soft surface that is also marginally active (i.e. having a small negative value of d) could render even better stabilization.
The stability of fully developed pipe-Poiseuille flow to finite-amplitude axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric disturbances has been studied using the equilibrium-amplitude method of Reynolds & Potter (1967). In both the cases the least-stable centre-modes were investigated. Also, for the non-axisymmetric case the mode investigated was the one with azimuthal wavenumber equal to one. Many higher-order Landau coefficients were calculated, and the Stuart-Landau series was analysed by the Shanks (1955) method and by using Padé approximants to look for the existence of possible equilibrium states. The results show in both cases that, for each value of the Reynolds number R, there is a preferred band of spatial wavenumbers α in which equilibrium states are likely to exist. Moreover, in both cases it was found that the magnitude of the minimum threshold amplitude for a given R decreases with increasing R. The scales of the various quantities obtained agree very well with those deduced by Davey & Nguyen (1971).
In this work a study has been made of the Stuart (1960)–Watson (1960) formalism as applied to plane Poiseuille flow. In particular, the higher-order Landau coefficients have been calculated for the Reynolds & Potter (1967) method and for the Watson (1960) method. The results have been used to study the convergence of the Stuart–Landau series. A convergence curve in the (α, R)-plane has been obtained by using suitable Domb–Sykes plots. In the region of poor convergence of the series, and also in a part of the divergent region of the series, it has been found that the Shanks (1955) method, using the em1 transformation, serves as a very effective way of finding the proper sum of the series, or of finding the proper antilimit of the series. The results for the velocity calculations at R = 5000 are in very good agreement with Herbert's (1977) Fourier-truncation method using N = 4. The Watson method and the Reynolds & Potter method have also been compared inthe subcritical and supercritical regions. It is found in the supercritical region that there is not much difference in the results by the ‘true problem’ of Watson and the ‘false problem’ of Reynolds & Potter when the respective series in both methods are summed by the Shanks method. This fact could possibly be capitalized upon in the subcritical region, where the Watson method is difficult to apply.
The possibility of incorporating SiC or TiC particulate reinforcements in a Ni3Al matrix through the melt processing route was examined. Interface bonding and thermal stability of SiC and surface treated SiC in Ni3Al has been investigated through sessile drop and DTA experiments. Feasibility of various processing techniques such as the mechanical mixing method and the vacuum infiltration method was also explored.
The equation of motion of a charged particle in a combined gravitational and electromagnetic field is cast in the classical Hamilton-Jacobi form and then applied to the special case of a Schwarzschild metric, leading to the well established equation of planetary motion.
In Riemannian geometry the autoparallels associated with the affine connexion coincide with the geodesies which arise from the metric. This is not the case in a modification of Riemannian geometry suggested by Lyra. A sufficient condition that the two classes of curves coincide is obtained.
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