A vast and growing quantitative literature considers how social networks shape political mobilization but the degree to which turnout decisions are strategic remains ambiguous. Unlike previous studies, we establish personal links between voters and candidates and exploit discontinuous incentives to mobilize across district boundaries to estimate causal effects. Considering three types of networks – families, co-workers, and immigrant communities – we show that a group member's candidacy acts as a mobilizational impulse propagating through the group's network. In family networks, some of this impulse is non-strategic, surviving past district boundaries. However, the bulk of family mobilization is bound by the candidate's district boundary, as is the entirety of the mobilizational effects in the other networks.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Contingency management (CM) procedures yield measurable reductions in cocaine use. This poster describes a trial aimed at using CM as a vehicle to show the biopsychosocial health benefits of reduced use, rather than total abstinence, the currently accepted metric for treatment efficacy. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: In this 12-week, randomized controlled trial, CM was used to reduce cocaine use and evaluate associated improvements in cardiovascular, immune, and psychosocial well-being. Adults aged 18 and older who sought treatment for cocaine use (N=127) were randomized into three groups in a 1:1:1 ratio: High Value ($55) or Low Value ($13) CM incentives for cocaine-negative urine samples or a non-contingent control group. They completed outpatient sessions three days per week across the 12-week intervention period, totaling 36 clinic visits and four post-treatment follow-up visits. During each visit, participants provided observed urine samples and completed several assays of biopsychosocial health. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Preliminary findings from generalized linear mixed effect modeling demonstrate the feasibility of the CM platform. Abstinence rates from cocaine use were significantly greater in the High Value group (47% negative; OR = 2.80; p = 0.01) relative to the Low Value (23% negative) and Control groups (24% negative;). In the planned primary analysis, the level of cocaine use reduction based on cocaine-negative urine samples will serve as the primary predictor of cardiovascular (e.g., endothelin-1 levels), immune (e.g., IL-10 levels) and psychosocial (e.g., Addiction Severity Index) outcomes using results from the fitted models. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This research will advance the field by prospectively and comprehensively demonstrating the beneficial effects of reduced cocaine use. These outcomes can, in turn, support the adoption of reduced cocaine use as a viable alternative endpoint in cocaine treatment trials.

People living with HIV experience psychosocial needs that often are not addressed. We designed an innovative low-resource model of phone-based psychosocial counseling (P-PSC). We describe cohort characteristics, acceptability, feasibility and utilization of P-PSC at health facilities supported by Baylor Foundation Malawi. Staff were virtually oriented at 120 sites concurrently. From facility-based phones, people with new HIV diagnosis, high viral load, treatment interruption or mental health concerns were referred without identifiable personal information to 13 psychosocial counselors via a WhatsApp group. Routine program data were retrospectively analyzed using univariate approaches and regressions with interrupted time series analyses. Clients utilizing P-PSC were 63% female, 25% youth (10–24 y) and 9% children (<10 y). They were referred from all 120 supported health facilities. Main referral reasons included new HIV diagnosis (32%), ART adherence support (32%) and treatment interruption (21%). Counseling was completed for 99% of referrals. Counseling sessions per month per psychosocial counselor increased from 77 before P-PSC to 216 in month 1 (95% CI = 82, 350, p = 0.003). Total encounters increased significantly to 31,642 in year 1 from ~6,000 during the 12 prior months, an over fivefold increase. P-PSC implementation at 120 remote facilities was acceptable and feasible with immediate, increased utilization despite few psychosocial counselors in Malawi.

Homeless shelter residents and staff may be at higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, SARS-CoV-2 infection estimates in this population have been reliant on cross-sectional or outbreak investigation data. We conducted routine surveillance and outbreak testing in 23 homeless shelters in King County, Washington, to estimate the occurrence of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and risk factors during 1 January 2020–31 May 2021. Symptom surveys and nasal swabs were collected for SARS-CoV-2 testing by RT-PCR for residents aged ≥3 months and staff. We collected 12,915 specimens from 2,930 unique participants. We identified 4.74 (95% CI 4.00–5.58) SARS-CoV-2 infections per 100 individuals (residents: 4.96, 95% CI 4.12–5.91; staff: 3.86, 95% CI 2.43–5.79). Most infections were asymptomatic at the time of detection (74%) and detected during routine surveillance (73%). Outbreak testing yielded higher test positivity than routine surveillance (2.7% versus 0.9%). Among those infected, residents were less likely to report symptoms than staff. Participants who were vaccinated against seasonal influenza and were current smokers had lower odds of having an infection detected. Active surveillance that includes SARS-CoV-2 testing of all persons is essential in ascertaining the true burden of SARS-CoV-2 infections among residents and staff of congregate settings.

This paper provides an overview and appraisal of the International Design Engineering Annual (IDEA) challenge - a virtually hosted design hackathon run with the aim of generating a design research dataset that can provide insights into design activities at virtually hosted hackathons. The resulting dataset consists of 200+ prototypes with over 1300 connections providing insights into the products, processes and people involved in the design process. The paper also provides recommendations for future deployments of virtual hackathons for design research.

Rodent models of schizophrenia (SCZ) are indispensable when screening for novel treatments, but quantifying their translational relevance with the underlying human pathophysiology has proved difficult. A novel systems methodology (shown in Figure 1) was developed integrating and comparing proteomic data of anterior prefrontal cortex tissue from SCZ post-mortem brains and matched controls with data obtained from four established glutamatergic rodent models, with the aim of evaluating which of these models represent SCZ most closely. Liquid chromatography coupled tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MSE) proteomic profiling was applied comparing healthy and “disease state” in human post-mortem samples and rodent brain tissue samples. Protein-protein interaction networks were constructed from significant abundance changes and enrichment analyses enabled the identification of pathophysiological characteristics of the disorder, which were represented across all four rodent models. Subsequently, these functional domains were used for cross-species comparisons. Five functional domains such as “development and differentiation” represented across all four rodent models, were identified. It was quantified that the chronic phencyclidine (cPCP) model represented SCZ brain changes most closely for four of these functional domains, by using machine-learning techniques. This is the first study aiming to quantify which rodent model recapitulates the neuropathological features of SCZ most closely. The methodology and findings presented here support recent efforts to overcome translational hurdles of preclinical psychiatric research by associating behavioural endophenotypes with distinct biological processes.

The concept of electoral competition plays a central role in many subfields of political science, but no consensus exists on how to measure it. One key challenge is how to conceptualize and measure electoral competitiveness at the district level across alternative electoral systems. Recent efforts to meet this challenge have introduced general measures of competitiveness which rest on explicit calculations about how votes translate into seats, but also implicit assumptions about how effort maps into votes (and how costly effort is). We investigate how assumptions about the effort-to-votes mapping affect the units in which competitiveness is best measured, arguing in favor of vote-share-denominated measures and against vote-share-per-seat measures. Whether elections under multimember proportional representation systems are judged more or less competitive than single-member plurality or runoff elections depends directly on the units in which competitiveness is assessed (and hence on assumptions about how effort maps into votes).

Introduction: Point of care ultrasound (PoCUS) has become an established tool in the initial management of patients with undifferentiated hypotension in the emergency department (ED). Current established protocols (e.g. RUSH and ACES) were developed by expert user opinion, rather than objective, prospective data. Recently the SHoC Protocol was published, recommending 3 core scans; cardiac, lung, and IVC; plus other scans when indicated clinically. We report the abnormal ultrasound findings from our international multicenter randomized controlled trial, to assess if the recommended 3 core SHoC protocol scans were chosen appropriately for this population. Methods: Recruitment occurred at seven centres in North America (4) and South Africa (3). Screening at triage identified patients (SBP<100 or shock index>1) who were randomized to PoCUS or control (standard care with no PoCUS) groups. All scans were performed by PoCUS-trained physicians within one hour of arrival in the ED. Demographics, clinical details and study findings were collected prospectively. A threshold incidence for positive findings of 10% was established as significant for the purposes of assessing the appropriateness of the core recommendations. Results: 138 patients had a PoCUS screen completed. All patients had cardiac, lung, IVC, aorta, abdominal, and pelvic scans. Reported abnormal findings included hyperdynamic LV function (59; 43%); small collapsing IVC (46; 33%); pericardial effusion (24; 17%); pleural fluid (19; 14%); hypodynamic LV function (15; 11%); large poorly collapsing IVC (13; 9%); peritoneal fluid (13; 9%); and aortic aneurysm (5; 4%). Conclusion: The 3 core SHoC Protocol recommendations included appropriate scans to detect all pathologies recorded at a rate of greater than 10 percent. The 3 most frequent findings were cardiac and IVC abnormalities, followed by lung. It is noted that peritoneal fluid was seen at a rate of 9%. Aortic aneurysms were rare. This data from the first RCT to compare PoCUS to standard care for undifferentiated hypotensive ED patients, supports the use of the prioritized SHoC protocol, though a larger study is required to confirm these findings.

Introduction: Point of care ultrasound (PoCUS) is an established tool in the initial management of patients with undifferentiated hypotension in the emergency department (ED). While PoCUS protocols have been shown to improve early diagnostic accuracy, there is little published evidence for any mortality benefit. We report the findings from our international multicenter randomized controlled trial, assessing the impact of a PoCUS protocol on survival and key clinical outcomes. Methods: Recruitment occurred at 7 centres in North America (4) and South Africa (3). Scans were performed by PoCUS-trained physicians. Screening at triage identified patients (SBP<100 or shock index>1), randomized to PoCUS or control (standard care and no PoCUS) groups. Demographics, clinical details and study findings were collected prospectively. Initial and secondary diagnoses were recorded at 0 and 60 minutes, with ultrasound performed in the PoCUS group prior to secondary assessment. The primary outcome measure was 30-day/discharge mortality. Secondary outcome measures included diagnostic accuracy, changes in vital signs, acid-base status, and length of stay. Categorical data was analyzed using Fishers test, and continuous data by Student T test and multi-level log-regression testing. (GraphPad/SPSS) Final chart review was blinded to initial impressions and PoCUS findings. Results: 258 patients were enrolled with follow-up fully completed. Baseline comparisons confirmed effective randomization. There was no difference between groups for the primary outcome of mortality; PoCUS 32/129 (24.8%; 95% CI 14.3-35.3%) vs. Control 32/129 (24.8%; 95% CI 14.3-35.3%); RR 1.00 (95% CI 0.869 to 1.15; p=1.00). There were no differences in the secondary outcomes; ICU and total length of stay. Our sample size has a power of 0.80 (α:0.05) for a moderate effect size. Other secondary outcomes are reported separately. Conclusion: This is the first RCT to compare PoCUS to standard care for undifferentiated hypotensive ED patients. We did not find any mortality or length of stay benefits with the use of a PoCUS protocol, though a larger study is required to confirm these findings. While PoCUS may have diagnostic benefits, these may not translate into a survival benefit effect.

Introduction: Point of Care Ultrasound (PoCUS) protocols are commonly used to guide resuscitation for emergency department (ED) patients with undifferentiated non-traumatic hypotension. While PoCUS has been shown to improve early diagnosis, there is a minimal evidence for any outcome benefit. We completed an international multicenter randomized controlled trial (RCT) to assess the impact of a PoCUS protocol on key resuscitation markers in this group. We report diagnostic impact and mortality elsewhere. Methods: The SHoC-ED1 study compared the addition of PoCUS to standard care within the first hour in the treatment of adult patients presenting with undifferentiated hypotension (SBP<100 mmHg or a Shock Index >1.0) with a control group that did not receive PoCUS. Scans were performed by PoCUS-trained physicians. 4 North American, and 3 South African sites participated in the study. Resuscitation outcomes analyzed included volume of fluid administered in the ED, changes in shock index (SI), modified early warning score (MEWS), venous acid-base balance, and lactate, at one and four hours. Comparisons utilized a T-test as well as stratified binomial log-regression to assess for any significant improvement in resuscitation amount the outcomes. Our sample size was powered at 0.80 (α:0.05) for a moderate effect size. Results: 258 patients were enrolled with follow-up fully completed. Baseline comparisons confirmed effective randomization. There was no significant difference in mean total volume of fluid received between the control (1658 ml; 95%CI 1365-1950) and PoCUS groups (1609 ml; 1385-1832; p=0.79). Significant improvements were seen in SI, MEWS, lactate and bicarbonate with resuscitation in both the PoCUS and control groups, however there was no difference between groups. Conclusion: SHOC-ED1 is the first RCT to compare PoCUS to standard of care in hypotensive ED patients. No significant difference in fluid used, or markers of resuscitation was found when comparing the use of a PoCUS protocol to that of standard of care in the resuscitation of patients with undifferentiated hypotension.

Introduction: Point of care ultrasonography (PoCUS) is an established tool in the initial management of hypotensive patients in the emergency department (ED). It has been shown rule out certain shock etiologies, and improve diagnostic certainty, however evidence on benefit in the management of hypotensive patients is limited. We report the findings from our international multicenter RCT assessing the impact of a PoCUS protocol on diagnostic accuracy, as well as other key outcomes including mortality, which are reported elsewhere. Methods: Recruitment occurred at 4 North American and 3 Southern African sites. Screening at triage identified patients (SBP<100 mmHg or shock index >1) who were randomized to either PoCUS or control groups. Scans were performed by PoCUS-trained physicians. Demographics, clinical details and findings were collected prospectively. Initial and secondary diagnoses were recorded at 0 and 60 minutes, with ultrasound performed in the PoCUS group prior to secondary assessment. Final chart review was blinded to initial impressions and PoCUS findings. Categorical data was analyzed using Fishers two-tailed test. Our sample size was powered at 0.80 (α:0.05) for a moderate effect size. Results: 258 patients were enrolled with follow-up fully completed. Baseline comparisons confirmed effective randomization. The perceived shock category changed more frequently in the PoCUS group 20/127 (15.7%) vs. control 7/125 (5.6%); RR 2.81 (95% CI 1.23 to 6.42; p=0.0134). There was no significant difference in change of diagnostic impression between groups PoCUS 39/123 (31.7%) vs control 34/124 (27.4%); RR 1.16 (95% CI 0.786 to 1.70; p=0.4879). There was no significant difference in the rate of correct category of shock between PoCUS (118/127; 93%) and control (113/122; 93%); RR 1.00 (95% CI 0.936 to 1.08; p=1.00), or for correct diagnosis; PoCUS 90/127 (70%) vs control 86/122 (70%); RR 0.987 (95% CI 0.671 to 1.45; p=1.00). Conclusion: This is the first RCT to compare PoCUS to standard care for undifferentiated hypotensive ED patients. We found that the use of PoCUS did change physicians’ perceived shock category. PoCUS did not improve diagnostic accuracy for category of shock or diagnosis.

The public health threat posed by zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi appears to be growing: it is increasingly reported across South East Asia, and is the leading cause of malaria in Malaysian Borneo. Plasmodium knowlesi threatens progress towards malaria elimination as aspects of its transmission, such as spillover from wildlife reservoirs and reliance on outdoor-biting vectors, may limit the effectiveness of conventional methods of malaria control. The development of new quantitative approaches that address the ecological complexity of P. knowlesi, particularly through a focus on its primary reservoir hosts, will be required to control it. Here, we review what is known about P. knowlesi transmission, identify key knowledge gaps in the context of current approaches to transmission modelling, and discuss the integration of these approaches with clinical parasitology and geostatistical analysis. We highlight the need to incorporate the influences of fine-scale spatial variation, rapid changes to the landscape, and reservoir population and transmission dynamics. The proposed integrated approach would address the unique challenges posed by malaria as a zoonosis, aid the identification of transmission hotspots, provide insight into the mechanistic links between incidence and land use change and support the design of appropriate interventions.

Q fever patients are often reported to experience a long-term impaired health status, including fatigue, which can persist for many years. During the large Q fever epidemic in The Netherlands, many patients with a laboratory-confirmed Coxiella burnetii infection were not notified as acute Q fever because they did not fulfil the clinical criteria of the acute Q fever case definition (fever, pneumonia and/or hepatitis). Our study assessed and compared the long-term health status of notified and non-notified Q fever patients at 4 years after onset of illness, using the Nijmegen Clinical Screening Instrument (NCSI). The study included 448 notified and 193 non-notified Q fever patients. The most severely affected subdomain in both patient groups was ‘Fatigue’ (50·5% of the notified and 54·6% of the non-notified patients had severe fatigue). Long-term health status did not differ significantly between the notified and non-notified patient groups, and patients scored worse on all subdomains compared to a healthy reference group. Our findings suggest that the magnitude of the 2007–2009 Q fever outbreak in The Netherlands was underestimated when only notified patients according to the European Union case definition are considered.

The oncogenic potential of human papillomaviruses (HPV) is well known in the context of cervical carcinoma; however, their role in the development of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is less clear. We aimed to determine the extent of the association between HPV infection and OSCC. A comprehensive literature search found 132 studies addressing HPV and OSCC in human cases, and a meta-analysis was performed using a random-effects model. There was evidence of an increased risk of OSCC in patients with HPV infection [odds ratio (OR) 2·69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·05–3·54]. The prevalence of HPV in OSCC was found to be 24·8%. There was an increased risk associated with HPV-16 infection (OR 2·35, 95% CI 1·73–3·19). Subgroup analyses showed geographical variance, with Asia (OR 2·94, 95% CI 2·16–4·00), and particularly China (OR 2·85, 95% CI 2·05–3·96) being high-risk areas. Our results confirm an increase in HPV infection in OSCC cases.

We present the first results of an exploratory VLT/X-Shooter survey of near-infrared diffuse interstellar bands (DIBs) in diffuse to translucent interstellar clouds. These observations confirm the presence of recently discoved NIR DIBs and provide more accurate rest wavelengths and line widths. Example spectra are shown for the reddened, AV ~ 10 mag, line-of-sight towards the distant binary system 4U 1907+09.