We study whether experts and novices differ in the way they make predictionsabout National Football League games. In particular, we measure to what extenttheir predictions are consistent with five environmental regularities that couldsupport decision making based on heuristics. These regularities involve the hometeam winning more often, the team with the better win-loss record winning moreoften, the team favored by the majority of media experts winning more often, andtwo others related to surprise wins and losses in the teams’ previousgame. Using signal detection theory and hierarchical Bayesian analysis, we showthat expert predictions for the 2017 National Football League (NFL) seasongenerally follow these regularities in a near optimal way, but novicepredictions do not. These results support the idea that using heuristics adaptedto the decision environment can support accurate predictions and be an indicatorof expertise.

Whether monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins differ from each other in a variety of phenotypes is important for genetic twin modeling and for inferences made from twin studies in general. We analyzed whether there were differences in individual, maternal and paternal education between MZ and DZ twins in a large pooled dataset. Information was gathered on individual education for 218,362 adult twins from 27 twin cohorts (53% females; 39% MZ twins), and on maternal and paternal education for 147,315 and 143,056 twins respectively, from 28 twin cohorts (52% females; 38% MZ twins). Together, we had information on individual or parental education from 42 twin cohorts representing 19 countries. The original education classifications were transformed to education years and analyzed using linear regression models. Overall, MZ males had 0.26 (95% CI [0.21, 0.31]) years and MZ females 0.17 (95% CI [0.12, 0.21]) years longer education than DZ twins. The zygosity difference became smaller in more recent birth cohorts for both males and females. Parental education was somewhat longer for fathers of DZ twins in cohorts born in 1990–1999 (0.16 years, 95% CI [0.08, 0.25]) and 2000 or later (0.11 years, 95% CI [0.00, 0.22]), compared with fathers of MZ twins. The results show that the years of both individual and parental education are largely similar in MZ and DZ twins. We suggest that the socio-economic differences between MZ and DZ twins are so small that inferences based upon genetic modeling of twin data are not affected.

Geomorphic, stratigraphic, geotechnical, and biogeographic evidence indicate that failure of a Pleistocene ice dam between 15.5 and 26 ka generated a megaflood from Glacial Lake Atna down the Matanuska Valley. While it has long been recognized that Lake Atna occupied ⩾9000 km2 of south-central Alaska's Copper River Basin, little attention has focused on the lake's discharge locations and behaviors. Digital elevation model and geomorphic analyses suggest that progressive lowering of the lake level by decanting over spillways exposed during glacial retreat led to sequential discharges down the Matanuska, Susitna, Tok, and Copper river valleys. Lake Atna's size, ∽50 ka duration, and sequential connection to four major drainages likely made it a regionally important late Pleistocene freshwater refugium. We estimate a catastrophic Matanuska megaflood would have released 500–1400 km3 at a maximum rate of ⩾3×106 m3 s–1. Volumes for the other outlets ranged from 200 to 2600 km3 and estimated maximum discharges ranged from 0.8 to 11.3×106 m3 s–1, making Lake Atna a serial generator of some of the largest known freshwater megafloods.

We present ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) and illustrate its ability to aid scholars in the social sciences to make more accurate forecasts of future events. In essence, EBMA improves prediction by pooling information from multiple forecast models to generate ensemble predictions similar to a weighted average of component forecasts. The weight assigned to each forecast is calibrated via its performance in some validation period. The aim is not to choose some “best” model, but rather to incorporate the insights and knowledge implicit in various forecasting efforts via statistical postprocessing. After presenting the method, we show that EBMA increases the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts relative to component models in three applied examples: predicting the occurrence of insurgencies around the Pacific Rim, forecasting vote shares in U.S. presidential elections, and predicting the votes of U.S. Supreme Court Justices.

A trend toward greater body size in dizygotic (DZ) than in monozygotic (MZ) twins has been suggested by some but not all studies, and this difference may also vary by age. We analyzed zygosity differences in mean values and variances of height and body mass index (BMI) among male and female twins from infancy to old age. Data were derived from an international database of 54 twin cohorts participating in the COllaborative project of Development of Anthropometrical measures in Twins (CODATwins), and included 842,951 height and BMI measurements from twins aged 1 to 102 years. The results showed that DZ twins were consistently taller than MZ twins, with differences of up to 2.0 cm in childhood and adolescence and up to 0.9 cm in adulthood. Similarly, a greater mean BMI of up to 0.3 kg/m2 in childhood and adolescence and up to 0.2 kg/m2 in adulthood was observed in DZ twins, although the pattern was less consistent. DZ twins presented up to 1.7% greater height and 1.9% greater BMI than MZ twins; these percentage differences were largest in middle and late childhood and decreased with age in both sexes. The variance of height was similar in MZ and DZ twins at most ages. In contrast, the variance of BMI was significantly higher in DZ than in MZ twins, particularly in childhood. In conclusion, DZ twins were generally taller and had greater BMI than MZ twins, but the differences decreased with age in both sexes.

For over 100 years, the genetics of human anthropometric traits has attracted scientific interest. In particular, height and body mass index (BMI, calculated as kg/m2) have been under intensive genetic research. However, it is still largely unknown whether and how heritability estimates vary between human populations. Opportunities to address this question have increased recently because of the establishment of many new twin cohorts and the increasing accumulation of data in established twin cohorts. We started a new research project to analyze systematically (1) the variation of heritability estimates of height, BMI and their trajectories over the life course between birth cohorts, ethnicities and countries, and (2) to study the effects of birth-related factors, education and smoking on these anthropometric traits and whether these effects vary between twin cohorts. We identified 67 twin projects, including both monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins, using various sources. We asked for individual level data on height and weight including repeated measurements, birth related traits, background variables, education and smoking. By the end of 2014, 48 projects participated. Together, we have 893,458 height and weight measures (52% females) from 434,723 twin individuals, including 201,192 complete twin pairs (40% monozygotic, 40% same-sex dizygotic and 20% opposite-sex dizygotic) representing 22 countries. This project demonstrates that large-scale international twin studies are feasible and can promote the use of existing data for novel research purposes.

Mutations in Cyclin-Dependent Kinase Inhibitor 2A (CDKN2A) and Cyclin-Dependent Kinase 4 (CDK4) contribute to susceptibility in approximately 40% of high-density cutaneous melanoma (CMM) families and about 2% of unselected CMM cases. BRCA-1 associated protein-1 (BAP1) has been more recently shown to predispose to CMM and uveal melanoma (UMM) in some families; however, its contribution to CMM development in the general population is unreported. We sought to determine the contribution of these genes to CMM susceptibility in a population-based sample of cases from Australia. We genotyped 1,109 probands from Queensland families and found that approximately 1.31% harbored mutations in CDKN2A, including some with novel missense mutations (p.R22W, p.G35R and p.I49F). BAP1 missense variants occurred in 0.63% of cases but no CDK4 variants were observed in the sample. This is the first estimate of the contribution of BAP1 and CDK4 to a population-based sample of CMM and supports the previously reported estimate of CDKN2A germline mutation prevalence.

What is the best approach for treating patients with social phobia (social anxiety disorder) over the long term? Social phobia is the most common anxiety disorder, with reported prevalence rates of up to 18.7%. Social phobia is characterized by a marked and persistent fear of being observed or evaluated by others in social performance or interaction situations and is associated with physical, cognitive, and behavioral (ie, avoidance) symptoms. The onset of social phobia typically occurs in childhood or adolescence and the clinical course, if left untreated, is usually chronic, unremitting, and associated with significant functional impairment. Social phobia exhibits a high degree of comorbidity with other psychiatric disorders, including mood disorders, anxiety disorders, and substance abuse/dependence. Few people with social phobia seek professional help despite the existence of beneficial treatment approaches. The efficacy, tolerability, and safety of the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), evidenced in randomized clinical trials, support these agents as first-line treatment. The benzodiazepine clonazepam and certain monoamine oxidase inhibitors (representing both reversible and nonreversible inhibitors) may also be of benefit. Treatment of social phobia may need to be continued for several months to consolidate response and achieve full remission. The SSRIs have shown benefit in longterm treatment trials, while long-term treatment data from clinical studies of clonazepam are limited but support the drug's efficacy. There is also evidence for the effectiveness of exposure-based strategies of cognitive-behavioral therapy, and controlled studies suggest that the effects of treatment are generally maintained at long-term follow-up. In light of the chronicity and disability associated with social phobia, as well as the high relapse rate after short-term therapy, it is recommended that effective treatment be continued for at least 12 months.

A method for determining the sex of live adult Laricobius nigrinus Fender (Coleoptera: Derodontidae) is described. Beetles were briefly chilled and positioned ventral-side-up under a dissecting microscope. Two forceps with blunted ends were used to gently brace the beetle and press on the centre of the abdomen to extrude its terminal segments. Male beetles were distinguished by a sclerotised, reticulate ninth abdominal sternite. In females, the distinct ovipositor (tergite, valvifers (ninth sternite), and laterotergites of the ninth abdominal segment) was visible. The procedure was rapid and harmed only a small number of individuals (fewer than 5%).