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This paper presents a stochastic multidimensional unfolding (MDU) procedure to spatially represent individual differences in phased or sequential decision processes. The specific application or scenario to be discussed involves the area of consumer psychology where consumers form judgments sequentially in their awareness, consideration, and choice set compositions in a phased or sequential manner as more information about the alternative brands in a designated product/service class are collected. A brief review of the consumer psychology literature on these nested congnitive sets as stages in phased decision making is provided. The technical details of the proposed model, maximum likelihood estimation framework, and algorithm are then discussed. A small scale Monte Carlo analysis is presented to demonstrate estimation proficiency and the appropriateness of the proposed model selection heuristic. An application of the methodology to capture awareness, consideration, and choice sets in graduate school applicants is presented. Finally, directions for future research and other potential applications are given.
This article revises the spatial and temporal boundaries of the Casas Grandes tradition associated with northwest Chihuahua, Mexico, based on new data collected in neighboring northeastern Sonora. The Casas Grandes tradition attained its greatest extent during the Medio period (AD 1200–1450/1500) followed by a dramatic demographic and political collapse. Hunter-gatherer groups subsequently occupied most of northwest Chihuahua. Data from the Fronteras Valley, Sonora, presents an alternative scenario, with a clear pattern of cultural continuity from the eleventh century to the colonial period in which sedentary farmers occupied the same landscapes and occasionally the same villages. These observations contribute to our understanding of the spread and subsequent demise of the Casas Grandes tradition in hinterland regions. For the Fronteras Valley, we infer that immigrant groups originally introduced Casas Grandes traditions and that uneven participation in a suite of shared religious beliefs and practices was common to all the hinterlands.
The schizophrenia polygenic risk score (SCZ-PRS) is an emerging tool in psychiatry.
Aims
We aimed to evaluate the utility of SCZ-PRS in a young, transdiagnostic, clinical cohort.
Method
SCZ-PRSs were calculated for young people who presented to early-intervention youth mental health clinics, including 158 patients of European ancestry, 113 of whom had longitudinal outcome data. We examined associations between SCZ-PRS and diagnosis, clinical stage and functioning at initial assessment, and new-onset psychotic disorder, clinical stage transition and functional course over time in contact with services.
Results
Compared with a control group, patients had elevated PRSs for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and depression, but not for any non-psychiatric phenotype (for example cardiovascular disease). Higher SCZ-PRSs were elevated in participants with psychotic, bipolar, depressive, anxiety and other disorders. At initial assessment, overall SCZ-PRSs were associated with psychotic disorder (odds ratio (OR) per s.d. increase in SCZ-PRS was 1.68, 95% CI 1.08–2.59, P = 0.020), but not assignment as clinical stage 2+ (i.e. discrete, persistent or recurrent disorder) (OR = 0.90, 95% CI 0.64–1.26, P = 0.53) or functioning (R = 0.03, P = 0.76). Longitudinally, overall SCZ-PRSs were not significantly associated with new-onset psychotic disorder (OR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.34–2.03, P = 0.69), clinical stage transition (OR = 1.02, 95% CI 0.70–1.48, P = 0.92) or persistent functional impairment (OR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.52–1.38, P = 0.50).
Conclusions
In this preliminary study, SCZ-PRSs were associated with psychotic disorder at initial assessment in a young, transdiagnostic, clinical cohort accessing early-intervention services. Larger clinical studies are needed to further evaluate the clinical utility of SCZ-PRSs, especially among individuals with high SCZ-PRS burden.
Diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of vector-borne disease (VBD) in pets is one cornerstone of companion animal practices. Veterinarians are facing new challenges associated with the emergence, reemergence, and rising incidence of VBD, including heartworm disease, Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and ehrlichiosis. Increases in the observed prevalence of these diseases have been attributed to a multitude of factors, including diagnostic tests with improved sensitivity, expanded annual testing practices, climatologic and ecological changes enhancing vector survival and expansion, emergence or recognition of novel pathogens, and increased movement of pets as travel companions. Veterinarians have the additional responsibility of providing information about zoonotic pathogen transmission from pets, especially to vulnerable human populations: the immunocompromised, children, and the elderly. Hindering efforts to protect pets and people is the dynamic and ever-changing nature of VBD prevalence and distribution. To address this deficit in understanding, the Companion Animal Parasite Council (CAPC) began efforts to annually forecast VBD prevalence in 2011. These forecasts provide veterinarians and pet owners with expected disease prevalence in advance of potential changes. This review summarizes the fidelity of VBD forecasts and illustrates the practical use of CAPC pathogen prevalence maps and forecast data in the practice of veterinary medicine and client education.
We present results from a multiwavelength study of the blazar PKS 1954–388 at radio, UV, X-ray, and gamma-ray energies. A RadioAstron observation at 1.66 GHz in June 2012 resulted in the detection of interferometric fringes on baselines of 6.2 Earth-diameters. This suggests a source frame brightness temperature of greater than 2 × 1012 K, well in excess of both equipartition and inverse Compton limits and implying the existence of Doppler boosting in the core. An 8.4-GHz TANAMI VLBI image, made less than a month after the RadioAstron observations, is consistent with a previously reported superluminal motion for a jet component. Flux density monitoring with the Australia Telescope Compact Array confirms previous evidence for long-term variability that increases with observing frequency. A search for more rapid variability revealed no evidence for significant day-scale flux density variation. The ATCA light-curve reveals a strong radio flare beginning in late 2013, which peaks higher, and earlier, at higher frequencies. Comparison with the Fermi gamma-ray light-curve indicates this followed ~ 9 months after the start of a prolonged gamma-ray high-state—a radio lag comparable to that seen in other blazars. The multiwavelength data are combined to derive a Spectral Energy Distribution, which is fitted by a one-zone synchrotron-self-Compton (SSC) model with the addition of external Compton (EC) emission.
The Tasmanian Cenozoic macrofossil record is relatively rich, and changes that have occurred in the vegetation of the region are becoming increasingly well understood. The record is essentially one of rainforest elements, especially in the Paleogene, but taxa that are now common in sclerophyllous heathlands and woodlands are increasingly prevalent in Quaternary sediments.
Extant Tasmanian rainforest is renowned for its beauty, and botanists have long recognised its marked taxonomic and structural similarity to other southern hemisphere ‘cool temperate’ forests of New Zealand and Chile. These are generally dominated by Nothofagus trees, their boughs laden with lichens and verdant shrouds of bryophytes. Other links are often made by phytogeographers to similar forests in high altitude regions of northern New South Wales and the much more species-rich vegetation of the generally montane regions of New Guinea and New Caledonia where Nothofagus also grows. A striking aspect of these forests is the presence of a variety of conifers, principally Podocarpaceae, but also Cupressaceae and Araucariaceae. In Tasmania the Araucariaceae are extinct, but the region is unique in the southern hemisphere in having a genus of Taxodiaceae, Athrotaxis. Athrotaxis spp. are often associated with Australia's only winter deciduous plant, Nothofagus gunnii, in montane regions of the island. The macrofossil record shows conclusively that the current diversity of Tasmania's woody rainforest flora is very much lower than at any other time during the Cenozoic. It confirms that there are strong floristic links to regions as widespread as eastern and southwestern mainland Australia, southern South America, New Zealand and New Guinea. In fact, Tasmanian Paleogene floras contain a wealth of taxa that are closely related to plants now confined to these regions.
Apart from the relatively large tracts of rainforest in Tasmania, closed forest lacking eucalypts is now confined to small patches along the east coast of Australia. In contrast to mainland Australia, Tasmania is relatively mountainous and has a well-developed woody alpine vegetation, dominated by shrubs of the Asteraceae, Epacridaceae, Myrtaceae and Proteaceae.
Fetal glucocorticoid overexposure is a key mechanism linking early development with later-life disease. In humans, low birth weight associates with increased fasting cortisol, hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal (HPA) axis reactivity, and with cardiovascular risk and cognitive decline. As there are sex differences in these adult diseases, we hypothesized that there may be sex differences in programming of the HPA axis in response to prenatal stressors. We conducted a systematic review following Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis. We searched Embase, MEDLINE and Web of Science from inception to 31 October 2016. We included studies related to sex differences, prenatal exposures and HPA axis. We excluded studies investigating specific disease states. The 23 included studies investigated the consequences of low birth weight, preterm birth and maternal stressors of asthma, psychosocial stress and glucocorticoid medications on HPA axis outcomes of placental glucocorticoid biology and offspring HPA axis function in early life and later life. Female offspring exposed to stressors had increased HPA axis reactivity compared with males. Furthermore, the female placenta increased its permeability to maternal glucocorticoids following maternal stress with changes in the expression of 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase enzymes in response to maternal glucocorticoid exposure or asthma. Among males there was some evidence of altered diurnal cortisol secretion. We conclude that although there is some evidence of male vulnerability leading to altered diurnal cortisol secretion, the female HPA axis is more vulnerable to programming, particularly in terms of its reactivity; this suggests a mechanism underlying sex differences in later-life diseases.
Medieval English Theatre is the premier journal in early theatre studies. Its name belies its wide range of interest: it publishes articles on theatre and pageantry from across the British Isles up to the opening of the London playhouses and the suppression of the civic mystery cycles, and also includes contributions on European and Latin drama, together with analyses of modern survivals or equivalents, and of research productions of medieval plays. This volume includes essays on spectatorship, audience reception and records of early drama, especially in Scotland, besides engaging with the current interest in the Towneley Plays and the history of its manuscript.Editors: Sarah Carpenter, Pamela M. King, Meg Twycross, Greg Walker.
Medieval English Theatre Meeting 2015 Change of publication details
The 2015 METh meeting was held at the University of Southampton, hosted by John McGavin. His carefully timetabled proceedings were interrupted by the unscheduled (by him) presentation of a Festschrift in his honour. He holds the unique composite volume, but the articles it contains will be divided between this volume of METh (Part One), and Volume 38 (Part Two).
The rest of the day lived up to its festive beginning. A range of papers on the topic of ‘Paradigms Lost’ highlighted those once entrenched scholarly positions about which we have changed our minds. Pamela M. King, in ‘Medieval Drama Criticism before METh’, introduced the late nineteenth-century work of Adolphus William Ward; Garrett Epp, on ‘Things we can no longer say about the Towneley Plays’, gave an impressive PowerPoint show of deletions of accepted ‘facts’; while Meg Twycross summarised new evidence on the provenance of the manuscript (see this volume). Other speakers introduced new material which extends or changes our approach to well-worn topics: Lindsey Cox showed us the visual evidence for the portrait miniature in Wit and Science, and how the different parts of the audience might have perceived it, and Jason Burg sketched the changing patterns of performance in Lincoln Cathedral between 1309 and 1642. Nadia van Pelt reminded us of the necessity of looking at original manuscript sources rather than their calendared summaries by discussing the enigmatic detail of a letter from Chapuys which reports Henry VIII's visit to a St John's Day pageant showing him ‘cutting off the heads of the clergy’; while Greg Walker rounded off the day with a masterly summation of recent critical approaches to spectatorship, and where they fell short.
Elisabeth Dutton gave us our own spectatorly experience. Before lunch, James McBain and Stephanie Allen of the EDOX (Early Drama at Oxford University) project spoke about ‘Rehabilitating Academic Drama’, and just after lunch this was put to the test by an enthusiastic reading of the play of Narcissus originally mounted by the undergraduates of St John's College, Oxford, as a Christmas entertainment in 1602.
Volumes 37 and 38 of Medieval English Theatre offer a collection of essays to honour John McGavin. Written by his friends and colleagues, students and admirers, these all testify to the deep affection as well as the academic esteem in which John himself and his work across the discipline of early theatre are held. Many reflect his own particular interests in the early drama of England and, especially, of Scotland: its records and narratives, its spectators, its intellectual and affective strategies, and its cultural work. There are papers on many aspects of Scottish theatrical culture, from ceremonial (Williamson) to Sir David Lyndsay (Hadley Williams, Happé, and Walker); from foolery (Carpenter) to Dunbar's dramatic voice (Jack). John's abiding interest in spectatorship and audience reception is approached from different angles, in morality drama (Steenbrugge), dialogue (Bose), in the York Play (King), academic drama (Dutton), and theory (van Pelt). His authoritative work in the creative interpretation of records and narratives, of both dramatic and para-dramatic performance, is reflected in essays on coronation ceremony (Hunt), libel (Egan), and monastic crucifixion games (Klausner). His steering role in the project on Early Modern London Theatres is commemorated in the online Bear Hunt (MacLean and Hagen). Three essays engage with one of the central current concerns of early theatre study, the Towneley manuscript and its plays (Epp, Johnston, and Twycross), while two more address uniquely revealing single plays: the Digby Mary Magdalen (Godfrey), and the Welsh Troelus a Chresyd (Niebrzydowski).
John's work has indeed come to epitomise ‘the best pairt of our play’. The number of essays contributed to the collection, by scholars young and old across the whole field of early drama studies, shows the range of his influence on the discipline itself and on generations of those working within it. This collection is offered as a tribute both to his creative scholarship and his collegiality. There is no space here for all the many friends and colleagues who would like to salute him on this occasion; but we hope that the recollections of three voices, offering memories and appreciation from John's student days to the present, may speak for us all.
Of the 13 US vancomycin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (VRSA) cases, 8 were identified in southeastern Michigan, primarily in patients with chronic lower-extremity wounds. VRSA infections develop when the vanA gene from vancomycin-resistant enterococcus (VRE) transfers to S. aureus. Incl8-like plasmids in VRE and pSK41-like plasmids in S. aureus appear to be important precursors to this transfer.
Objective.
Identify the prevalence of VRSA precursor organisms.
Design.
Prospective cohort with embedded case-control study.
Participants.
Southeastern Michigan adults with chronic lower-extremity wounds.
Methods.
Adults presenting to 3 southeastern Michigan medical centers during the period February 15 through March 4, 2011, with chronic lower-extremity wounds had wound, nares, and perirectal swab specimens cultured for S. aureus and VRE, which were tested for pSK41-like and Incl8-like plasmids by polymerase chain reaction. We interviewed participants and reviewed clinical records. Risk factors for pSK41-positive S. aureus were assessed among all study participants (cohort analysis) and among only S. aureus-colonized participants (case-control analysis).
Results.
Of 179 participants with wound cultures, 26% were colonized with methicillin-susceptible S. aureus, 27% were colonized with methicillin-resistant S. aureus, and 4% were colonized with VRE, although only 17% consented to perirectal culture. Six participants (3%) had pSK41-positive S. aureus, and none had Incl8-positive VRE. Having chronic wounds for over 2 years was associated with pSK41-positive S. aureus colonization in both analyses.
Conclusions.
Colonization with VRSA precursor organisms was rare. Having long-standing chronic wounds was a risk factor for pSK41-positive S. aureus colonization. Additional investigation into the prevalence of VRSA precursors among a larger cohort of patients is warranted.
For over a decade, the structure of the inner “hole” in the transition disk around TW Hydrae has been a subject of debate. To probe the innermost regions of the protoplanetary disk, observations at the highest possible spatial resolution are required. We present new interferometric data of TW Hya from near-infrared to millimeter wavelengths. We confront existing models of the disk structure with the complete data set and develop a new, detailed radiative-transfer model. This model is characterized by: 1) a spatial separation of the largest grains from the small disk grains; and 2) a smooth inner rim structure, rather than a sharp disk edge.
We examine the development of stable bimetal interfaces in nanolayered composites in severe plastic deformation. Copper-niobium multilayers of varying layer thicknesses from several micrometers to 10 nanometers (nm) were fabricated via accumulative roll bonding (ARB). Investigation of their 5-parameter character and atomic scale structure finds that when layer thicknesses refine well below one micrometer, the interfaces self-organize to a few interface orientation relationships. With atomic scale and crystal plasticity modeling, we identify that the two controlling factors that determine whether an interface is stable under high strain rolling are orientation stability of the bicrystal and interface formation energy. A figure-of-merit is introduced that not only predicts the development of the prevailing interfaces but also explains why other interfaces did not develop. Through a suite of nanomechanical and bulk test results, we show that ARB composites containing these stable interfaces are found to have exceptional hardness (∼4.5 GPa) and strength (∼2 GPa).
The organization of mental disorders into 16 DSM-IV and 10 ICD-10 chapters is complex and based on clinical presentation. We explored the feasibility of a more parsimonious meta-structure based on both risk factors and clinical factors.
Method
Most DSM-IV disorders were allocated to one of five clusters as a starting premise. Teams of experts then reviewed the literature to determine within-cluster similarities on 11 predetermined validating criteria. Disorders were included and excluded as determined by the available data. These data are intended to inform the grouping of disorders in the DSM-V and ICD-11 processes.
Results
The final clusters were neurocognitive (identified principally by neural substrate abnormalities), neurodevelopmental (identified principally by early and continuing cognitive deficits), psychosis (identified principally by clinical features and biomarkers for information processing deficits), emotional (identified principally by the temperamental antecedent of negative emotionality), and externalizing (identified principally by the temperamental antecedent of disinhibition).
Conclusions
Large groups of disorders were found to share risk factors and also clinical picture. There could be advantages for clinical practice, public administration and research from the adoption of such an organizing principle.