Let $G=(V,E)$ be a countable graph. The Bunkbed graph of $G$ is the product graph $G \times K_2$, which has vertex set $V\times \{0,1\}$ with “horizontal” edges inherited from $G$ and additional “vertical” edges connecting $(w,0)$ and $(w,1)$ for each $w \in V$. Kasteleyn’s Bunkbed conjecture states that for each $u,v \in V$ and $p\in [0,1]$, the vertex $(u,0)$ is at least as likely to be connected to $(v,0)$ as to $(v,1)$ under Bernoulli-$p$ bond percolation on the bunkbed graph. We prove that the conjecture holds in the $p \uparrow 1$ limit in the sense that for each finite graph $G$ there exists $\varepsilon (G)\gt 0$ such that the bunkbed conjecture holds for $p \geqslant 1-\varepsilon (G)$.

We show that the Mallows measure on permutations of $1,\dots ,n$ arises as the law of the unique Gale–Shapley stable matching of the random bipartite graph with vertex set conditioned to be perfect, where preferences arise from the natural total ordering of the vertices of each gender but are restricted to the (random) edges of the graph. We extend this correspondence to infinite intervals, for which the situation is more intricate. We prove that almost surely, every stable matching of the random bipartite graph obtained by performing Bernoulli percolation on the complete bipartite graph $K_{{\mathbb Z},{\mathbb Z}}$ falls into one of two classes: a countable family $(\sigma _n)_{n\in {\mathbb Z}}$ of tame stable matchings, in which the length of the longest edge crossing k is $O(\log |k|)$ as $k\to \pm \infty $, and an uncountable family of wild stable matchings, in which this length is $\exp \Omega (k)$ as $k\to +\infty $. The tame stable matching $\sigma _n$ has the law of the Mallows permutation of ${\mathbb Z}$ (as constructed by Gnedin and Olshanski) composed with the shift $k\mapsto k+n$. The permutation $\sigma _{n+1}$ dominates $\sigma _{n}$ pointwise, and the two permutations are related by a shift along a random strictly increasing sequence.

We prove that the free uniform spanning forest of any bounded degree proper plane graph is connected almost surely, answering a question of Benjamini, Lyons, Peres and Schramm. We provide a quantitative form of this result, calculating the critical exponents governing the geometry of the uniform spanning forests of transient proper plane graphs with bounded degrees and codegrees. We find that the same exponents hold universally over this entire class of graphs provided that measurements are made using the hyperbolic geometry of their circle packings rather than their usual combinatorial geometry.