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Consider a d-type (d<∞) Galton–Watson branching process, conditioned on the event that there are at least k≥2 individuals in the nth generation, pick k individuals at random from the nth generation and trace their lines of descent backward in time till they meet. In this paper, the limit behaviors of the distributions of the generation number of the most recent common ancestor of any k chosen individuals and of the whole population are studied for both critical and subcritical cases. Also, we investigate the limit distribution of the joint distribution of the generation number and their types.
In the framework of a multitype Bienaymé–Galton–Watson (BGW) process, the event that the daughter's type differs from the mother's type can be viewed as a mutation event. Assuming that mutations are rare, we study a situation where all types except one produce on average less than one offspring. We establish a neat asymptotic structure for the BGW process escaping extinction due to a sequence of mutations toward the supercritical type. Our asymptotic analysis is performed by letting mutation probabilities tend to 0. The limit process, conditional on escaping extinction, is another BGW process with an enriched set of types, allowing us to delineate a stem lineage of particles that leads toward the escape event. The stem lineage can be described by a simple Markov chain on the set of particle types. The total time to escape becomes a sum of a random number of independent, geometrically distributed times spent at intermediate types.
Classical results for exchangeable systems of random variables are extended to multiclass systems satisfying a natural partial exchangeability assumption. It is proved that the conditional law of a finite multiclass system, given the value of the vector of the empirical measures of its classes, corresponds to independent uniform orderings of the samples within {each} class, and that a family of such systems converges in law {if and only if} the corresponding empirical measure vectors converge in law. As a corollary, convergence within {each} class to an infinite independent and identically distributed system implies asymptotic independence between {different} classes. A result implying the Hewitt-Savage 0-1 law is also extended.
Large deviation results are obtained for the normed limit of a supercritical multitype branching process. Starting from a single individual of type i, let L[i] be the normed limit of the branching process, and let be the minimum possible population size at generation k. If is bounded in k (bounded minimum growth), then we show that P(L[i] ≤ x) = P(L[i] = 0) + xαF*[i](x) + o(xα) as x → 0. If grows exponentially in k (exponential minimum growth), then we show that −log P(L[i] ≤ x) = x−β/(1−β) G*[i](x) + o (x−β/(1−β)) as x → 0. If the maximum family size is bounded, then −log P(L[i] > x) = xδ/(δ−1)H*[i](x) + o(xδ/(δ−1)) as x → ∞. Here α, β and δ are constants obtained from combinations of the minimum, maximum and mean growth rates, and F*, G* and H* are multiplicatively periodic functions.
The Kesten-Stigum theorem for the one-type Galton-Watson process gives necessary and sufficient conditions for mean convergence of the martingale formed by the population size normed by its expectation. Here, the approach to this theorem pioneered by Lyons, Pemantle and Peres (1995) is extended to certain kinds of martingales defined for Galton-Watson processes with a general type space. Many examples satisfy stochastic domination conditions on the offspring distributions and suitable domination conditions combine nicely with general conditions for mean convergence to produce moment conditions, like the X log X condition of the Kesten-Stigum theorem. A general treatment of this phenomenon is given. The application of the approach to various branching processes is indicated. However, the main reason for developing the theory is to obtain martingale convergence results in a branching random walk that do not seem readily accessible with other techniques. These results, which are natural extensions of known results for martingales associated with binary branching Brownian motion, form the main application.
The multitype discrete time indecomposable branching process with immigration is considered. Using a martingale approach a limit theorem is proved for such processes when the totality of immigrating individuals at a given time depends on evolution of the processes generating by previously immigrated individuals. Corollaries of the limit theorem are obtained for the cases of finite and infinite second moments of offspring distribution in critical processes.
This paper considers the problem of estimating the growth rate ρ of a p-type Galton–Watson process {Zn}. To this end, a general approach of possible independent interest to central limit theorems for discrete-time branching processes is developed. The idea is to adapt martingale central limit theory to martingale difference triangular arrays indexed by the set of all individuals ever alive. Iterated logarithm laws are derived by similar methods. Asymptotic distribution results and the a.s. asymptotic behaviour are derived for a maximum likelihood estimator based upon all parent–offspring combinations in a given number N of generations, and for the estimator which depends on the total generation sizes only.
If Bn is the time of the first birth in the nth generation in a supercritical irreducible multitype Crump–Mode process then when there are people in every generation Bn/n converges to a constant; if Dn is the time of the last birth in the nth generation then Dn/n also converges to a constant on the survival set. Analogous results hold for the extreme members of the nth generation in a branching random walk.
The asymptotic behaviour of those k-type (k ≥ 1) Galton-Watson processes (both with and without immigration) with ρ close to unity is considered. The first principal result (Theorem 3) relates to the vector denoting the numbers of particles of each type at the nth generation in processes without immigration. It is shown that, when normed in a certain way and conditioned on non-extinction, this vector has approximately, for large n, a negative exponential distribution which is degenerate on a line. Theorem 4 is an analogous result for processes with immigration. In this case, no conditioning is required, and the limiting distribution is again degenerate on a line, although now it relates to the gamma rather than the negative exponential.
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