The cyclicity and Koblitz conjectures ask about the distribution of primes of cyclic and prime-order reduction, respectively, for elliptic curves over $\mathbb {Q}$. In 1976, Serre gave a conditional proof of the cyclicity conjecture, but the Koblitz conjecture (refined by Zywina in 2011) remains open. The conjectures are now known unconditionally “on average” due to work of Banks–Shparlinski and Balog–Cojocaru–David. Recently, there has been a growing interest in the cyclicity conjecture for primes in arithmetic progressions (AP), with relevant work by Akbal–Güloğlu and Wong. In this article, we adapt Zywina’s method to formulate the Koblitz conjecture for AP and refine a theorem of Jones to establish results on the moments of the constants in both the cyclicity and Koblitz conjectures for AP. In doing so, we uncover a somewhat counterintuitive phenomenon: On average, these two constants are oppositely biased over congruence classes. Finally, in an accompanying repository, we give Magma code for computing the constants discussed in this article.

Let $\mathcal {P}$ be the set of primes and $\pi (x)$ the number of primes not exceeding x. Let $P^+(n)$ be the largest prime factor of n, with the convention $P^+(1)=1$, and $ T_c(x)=\#\{p\le x:p\in \mathcal {P},P^+(p-1)\ge p^c\}. $ Motivated by a conjecture of Chen and Chen [‘On the largest prime factor of shifted primes’, Acta Math. Sin. (Engl. Ser.) 33 (2017), 377–382], we show that for any c with $8/9\le c<1$,

$$ \begin{align*} \limsup_{x\rightarrow\infty}T_c(x)/\pi(x)\le 8(1/c-1), \end{align*} $$

which clearly means that

$$ \begin{align*} \limsup_{x\rightarrow\infty}T_c(x)/\pi(x)\rightarrow 0 \quad \text{as } c\rightarrow 1. \end{align*} $$

We consider the reduction of an elliptic curve defined over the rational numbers modulo primes in a given arithmetic progression and investigate how often the subgroup of rational points of this reduced curve is cyclic.

In this article, we show to what extent one can improve a theorem of Bombieri, Friedlander and Iwaniec by using Hooley's variant of the divisor switching technique. We also give an application of the theorem in question, which is a Bombieri-Vinogradov type theorem for the Tichmarsh divisor problem in arithmetic progressions.