Hostname: page-component-76d6cb85b7-dqfph Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-07-14T03:52:38.081Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

When the Money Stops: Fluctuations in Financial Remittances and Incumbent Approval in Central Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2018

KATERINA TERTYTCHNAYA ,
CATHERINE E. DE VRIES ,
HECTOR SOLAZ  and
DAVID DOYLE Open the ORCID record for DAVID DOYLE [Opens in a new window]
KATERINA TERTYTCHNAYA*
Affiliation:
University of Oxford
CATHERINE E. DE VRIES*
Affiliation:
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
HECTOR SOLAZ*
Affiliation:
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
DAVID DOYLE*
Affiliation:
University of Oxford
*
Katerina Tertytchnaya is a Junior Research Fellow, St Anne's college and Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford, Manor Road, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom (katerina.tertytchnaya@politics.ox.ac.uk).
Catherine E. De Vries is a Professor, Department of Political Science & Public Administration, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1055, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands (c.e.de.vries@vu.nl).
Hector Solaz is a Lecturer, John Stuart Mill College, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1055, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands (h.solazsantos@vu.nl).
David Doyle is an Associate Professor, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford, Manor Road, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom (david.doyle@politics.ox.ac.uk).
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Fluctuations in the volume and the value of financial remittances received from abroad affect the livelihood of households in developing economies across the world. Yet, political scientists have little to say about how changes in remittances, as opposed to the receipt of remittance payments alone, affect recipients’ political attitudes. Relying on a unique four-wave panel study of Kyrgyz citizens between 2010–2013 and a cross-sectional sample of 28 countries in Central Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, we show that when people experience a decrease (increase) in remittances, they become less (more) satisfied about their household economic situation and misattribute responsibility to the incumbent at home. Our findings advance the literature on the political consequences of remittance payments and suggest that far from exclusively being an international risk-sharing mechanism for developing countries, remittances can also drive fluctuations in incumbent approval and compromise rudimentary accountability mechanisms in the developing world.

Information

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 112 , Issue 4 , November 2018 , pp. 758 - 774
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2018 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

Footnotes

Previous versions of this article were presented at research seminars at the Institute of Advanced Studies in Toulouse, the London School of Economics, Pompeu Fabra University and the University of California, Los Angeles as well as the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association. The authors would like to thank Jesse Acevedo, Faisal Ahmed, Ben Ansell, Laia Balcells, Michael Becher, Tilman Brück, Elias Dinas, Abel Escribà-Folch, Damir Esenaliev, Aina Gallego, Miriam Golden, Carlo Horz, Spyros Kosmidis, David Leblang, Lucas Leemann, Barry Maydom, Covadonga Meseguer, Lucas Novaes, Karine Van Der Straeten, Mariken van der Velden, Cesar Zucco as well as four anonymous reviewers and the editor at the American Political Science Review for their constructive comments. Replication files are available at the American Political Science Review Dataverse: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/MO3KOQ.

References

REFERENCES

Abdih, Yasser, Chami, Ralph, Dagher, Jihad, and Montiel, Peter. 2012. “Remittances and Institutions: Are Remittances a Curse?” World Development 40 (4): 657–66.Google Scholar
Acevedo, Jesse. 2016. Move, Work, Save, Send: The Political Economy of Migration and Remittances. PhD dissertation, Department of Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles.Google Scholar
Ahmed, Faisal Z. 2012. “The Perils of Unearned Foreign Income: Aid, Remittances, and Government Survival.” American Political Science Review 106 (1): 146–65.Google Scholar
Ahmed, Faisal Z. 2017. “Remittances and Incumbency: Theory and Evidence.” Economics & Politics 29 (1): 22–47.Google Scholar
Aparicio, Francisco Javier, and Meseguer, Covadonga. 2012. “Collective Remittances and the State: The 3× 1 Program in Mexican Municipalities.” World Development 40 (1): 206–22.Google Scholar
Ashworth, Scott, de Mesquita, Ethan Bueno, and Friedenberg, Amanda. 2018. “Learning about Voter Rationality.” American Journal of Political Science 62 (1): 37–54.Google Scholar
Barajas, Adolfo, Chami, Ralph, Fullenkamp, Connel, Gapen, Michael, and Montiel, Peter J.. 2009. “Do Workers’ Remittances Promote Economic Growth?” IMF Working Papers 09 (153): 1–22.Google Scholar
Bravo, Jorge. 2012. “Credit where Credit is Due? Remittances, Economic Assessments, and Presidential Approval in Latin America.” Working Paper, Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance, Princeton University. Accessible online at: http://www.princeton.edu/politics/about/file-repository/public/credit.where.credit.is.due.W.pdfGoogle Scholar
Brück, Tilman, Esenaliev, Damir, Kroeger, Antje, Kudebayeva, Alma, Mirkasimov, Bakhrom, and Steiner, Susan. 2014. “Household Survey Data for Research on Well-Being and Behavior in Central Asia.” Journal of Comparative Economics 42 (3): 819–35.Google Scholar
Campello, Daniella, and Zucco, Cesar Jr. 2016. “Presidential Success and the World Economy.” The Journal of Politics 78 (2): 589–602.Google Scholar
Campello, Daniella, and Zucco, Cesar Jr. 2017. “Rewarding Merit or Luck? The Competency Signal in Comparative Perspective.” Paper presented at the American Political Science Annual Conference, San Francisco, August 31 – September 3.Google Scholar
Chaudhry, Kiren Aziz. 1997. The Price of Wealth: Economies and Institutions in the Middle East. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Córdova, Abby, and Hiskey, Jonathan. 2015. “Shaping Politics at Home: Cross-Border Social Ties and Local-Level Political Engagement.” Comparative Political Studies 48 (11): 1454–87.Google Scholar
Cornelius, Wayne A., and Rosenblum, Marc R.. 2005. “Immigration and Politics.” Annual Review of Political Science 8: 99–119.Google Scholar
De Vries, Catherine E., and Giger, Nathalie. 2014. “Holding Governments Accountable? Individual Heterogeneity in Performance Voting.” European Journal of Political Research 53 (2): 345– 62.Google Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. “An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy.” Journal of Political Economy 65 (2): 135–50.Google Scholar
Doyle, David. 2015. “Remittances and Social Spending.” American Political Science Review 109 (4): 785–802.Google Scholar
Duch, Raymond M., and Stevenson, Randolph T.. 2008. The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Escribà-Folch, Abel, Meseguer, Covadonga, and Wright, Joseph. 2015. “Remittances and Democratization.” International Studies Quarterly 59 (3): 571–86.Google Scholar
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. 2010. Life in Transition: After the Crisis. Report by Chief Economist Erik Berglof. URL: http://www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/surveys/lits2p.pdf (accessed 11th of July 2017).Google Scholar
Fajnzylber, Pablo, and Lopez, J. Humberto. 2008. Remittances and Development: Lessons from Latin America. Washington D.C.: World Bank Publications.Google Scholar
Fiorina, Morris. P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Freedom House. 2010. Nations in Transit: Kyrgyzstan. Retrieved April 18, 2018 (https://freedomhouse.org/report/nations-transit/2010/kyrgyzstan).Google Scholar
Freedom House. 2014. Nations in Transit: Kyrgyzstan. Retrieved April 18, 2018 (https://freedomhouse.org/report/nations-transit/2014/kyrgyzstan).Google Scholar
Fumagalli, Matteo. 2016. “Semi-Presidentialism in Kyrgyzstan.” In Semi-Presidentialism in the Caucasus and Central Asia, eds. Elgie, Robert and Moestrup, Sophia. London: Palgrave MacMillan, 173–205.Google Scholar
Germano, Roy. 2010. The Political Economy of Remittances: Emigration, Social Insurance Provision, and Political Behavior in Mexico. PhD Dissertation, Department of Political Science, The University of Texas at Austin. Accessible online at: https://repositories.lib.utexas.edu/handle/2152/ETD-UT-2010-08-1812Google Scholar
Germano, Roy. 2013. “Migrants’ Remittances and Economic Voting in the Mexican Countryside.” Electoral Studies 32 (4): 875–85.Google Scholar
Gomez, Brad T., and Matthew Wilson, J.. 2001. “Political Sophistication and Economic Voting in the American Electorate: A Theory of Heterogeneous Attribution.” American Journal of Political Science 45 (4): 899–914.Google Scholar
Healy, Andrew, Kuo, Alexander G., and Malhotra, Neil. 2014. “Partisan Bias in Blame Attribution: When Does it Occur?” Journal of Experimental Political Science 1 (2): 144–58.Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund. 2016. Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues. Washington D.C.: IMF Country Report No. 16/56.Google Scholar
Javeline, Debra. 2003. “The Role of Blame in Collective Action: Evidence from Russia.” American Political Science Review 97 (1): 107–21.Google Scholar
Kayser, Mark Andreas, and Peress, Michael. 2012. “Benchmarking Across Borders: Electoral Accountability and The Necessity of Comparison.” American Political Science Review 106 (3): 661–84.Google Scholar
Kramer, Gerald. H. 1971. “Short-Term Fluctuations in US voting Behavior, 1896–1964.” American Political Science Review 65 (1): 131–43.Google Scholar
Leblang, David. 2017. “Harnessing the Diaspora: Dual Citizenship, Migrant Remittances and Return.” Comparative Political Studies 50 (1): 75–101.Google Scholar
Leigh, Andrew. 2009. “Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?” Oxford Bulletin for Economics and Statistics 71 (2): 163–81.Google Scholar
Levitt, Peggy. 2001. The Transnational Villagers. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Life in Transition Survey. 2006. A Survey of People's Experiences and Attitudes. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, doi: http://www.ebrd.com/news/publications/special-reports/life-in-transition-survey-i.html.Google Scholar
Life in Transition Survey. 2010. After the Crisis. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, doi: http://www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/economics/Technical_Report.pdf.Google Scholar
Lupu, Noam. 2016. Party Brands in Crisis: Partisanship, Brand Dilution, and the Breakdown of Political Parties in Latin America. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Manacorda, Marco, Miguel, Edward, and Vigorito, Andrea. 2011. “Government Transfers and Political Support.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 3 (1): 1–28.Google Scholar
Meseguer, Covadonga, Lavezzolo, Sebastián, and Aparicio, Javier. 2016. “Financial Remittances, Trans-Border Conversations, and the State.” Comparative Migration Studies 4 (13): 1–29.Google Scholar
Mohapatra, Sanket, and Ratha, Dilip. 2010. “The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Migration and Remittances.” Economic Premise No. 2. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Mohapatra, Sanket, Moreno-Dodson, Blanca, and Ratha, Dilip. 2012. “Migration, Taxation, and Inequality.” The World Bank Economic Premise No 80.Google Scholar
Monteiro, Joana, and Ferraz, Claudio. 2012. “Does Oil Make Leaders Unaccountable? Evidence from Brazil's Offshore Oil Boom.” Working Paper, Center of International Development, Harvard University.Google Scholar
O'Mahony, Angela. 2013. “Political Investment: Remittances and Elections.” British Journal of Political Science 43 (4): 799–820.Google Scholar
O'Neill, Alexander C. 2001. “Emigrant Remittances: Policies to Increase Inflows and Maximize Benefits.” Indiana Journal of Global Legal Studies 9 (1): 345–60. Accessible online at: https://www.repository.law.indiana.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1431&context=ijglsGoogle Scholar
Orozco, Manuel, and Rouse, Rebecca. 2013. “Migrant Hometown Associations and Opportunities for Development.” Community Development. Washington: Migration Policy Institute 280.Google Scholar
Page, John, and Plaza, Sonia. 2006. “Migration Remittances and Development: A Review of Global Evidence.” Journal of African Economies 15 (2): 245–336.Google Scholar
Pérez-Armendáriz, Clarisa, and Crow, David. 2010. “Do Migrants Remit Democracy? International Migration, Political Beliefs, and Behavior in Mexico.” Comparative Political Studies 43 (1): 119–48.Google Scholar
Pfutze, Tobias. 2014. “Clientelism versus Social Learning: The Electoral Effects of International Migration.” International Studies Quarterly 58 (2): 295–307.Google Scholar
Pop-Eleches, Cristian, and Pop-Eleches, Grigore. 2012. “Targeted Government Spending and Political Preferences.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 7 (3): 285–320.Google Scholar
Posner, Daniel N., and Simon, David J.. 2002. “Economic Conditions and Incumbent Support in Africa's New Democracies: Evidence from Zambia.” Comparative Political Studies 35 (3): 313–36.Google Scholar
Ratha, Dilip, Eigen-Zucchi, Christian, and Plaza, Sonia. 2016. Migration and Remittances Factbook 2016. Washington D.C.: World Bank Publications.Google Scholar
Ratha, Dilip, Mohapatra, Sanket, and Silwal, Ani. 2010. “Outlook for Remittance Flows 2010–2011: Remittance Flows to Developing Countries Remained Resilient in 2009, Expected to Recover during 2010–2011.” Migration and Development Brief 12, Washington D.C.: World Bank.Google Scholar
Roberts, Andrew. 2008. “Hyperaccountability: Economic Voting in Central and Eastern Europe.” Electoral Studies 27 (3): 533–46.Google Scholar
Singer, David Andrew. 2010. “Migrant Remittances and Exchange Rate Regimes in the Developing World.” American Political Science Review 104 (2): 307–23.Google Scholar
Singer, David Andrew. 2012. “The Family Channel: Migrant Remittances and Government Finance.” Working Paper, Department of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.Google Scholar
Singer, Matthew M. 2013. “Economic Voting in an Era of Non-Crisis: The Changing Electoral Agenda in Latin America, 1982–2010.” Comparative Politics 45 (2): 169–85.Google Scholar
Slay, Ben. 2015. Exchange Rates, Remittances, and Poverty in the Kyrgyz Republic. UNDP. Accessible online at: http://www.eurasia.undp.org/content/rbec/en/home/presscenter/articles/2015/5/25/exchange-rates–remittances–and-poverty-in-the-kyrgyz-republic.html.Google Scholar
Snijders, Tom A. B., and Bosker, Roel J.. 2012. Multilevel Analysis: An Introduction to Basic and Advanced Multilevel Modeling (Second Edition). London: Sage Publishers.Google Scholar
Stigler, George J. 1973. “General Economic Conditions and National Elections.” American Economic Review 63 (1): 160–7.Google Scholar
Stokes, Susan C. 2001. Mandates and Democracy: Neoliberalism by Surprise in Latin America. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Tyburski, Michael D. 2012. “The Resource Curse Reversed? Remittances and Corruption in Mexico.” International Studies Quarterly 56 (2): 339–50.Google Scholar
Vieira, Helena. 2017. Catherine Wines: “International Remittances Help People Directly” LSE Business Review. Available online at: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2017/11/03/catherine-wines-international-remittances-help-people-directly-interview/.Google Scholar
Wibbels, Erik. 2006. “Dependency Revisited: International Markets, Business Cycles, and Social Spending in the Developing World.” International Organization 60 (2): 433–68.Google Scholar
Williams, John T. 1985. “Systemic Influences on Political Trust: The Importance of Perceived Institutional Performance.” Political Methodology 11 (1/2): 125–42.Google Scholar
World Bank. 2017. Dataset: World Development Indicators (April 2017). doi: https://stats.ukdataservice.ac.uk.Google Scholar
Yang, Dean and Choi, HwaJung. 2007. “Are Remittances Insurance? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in the Philippines.” The World Bank Economic Review 21 (2): 219–48.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Tertytchnaya et al. Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/MO3KOQ
Link
Supplementary material: File

Tertytchnaya et al. supplementary material

Tertytchnaya et al. supplementary material 1

Download Tertytchnaya et al. supplementary material(File)
File 472.9 KB
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.