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This chapter introduces the state space model and shows how this can be adapted to represent a wide variety of models of use in economics and finance. We define the Kalman filter and show how it can be implemented in leading examples.
This chapter introduces more formal concepts like stationarity and mixing, and explains why they are needed. We also define the autocorrelation function and describe its properties and how it is estimated from sample data. We discuss the properties of the estimator of the mean and autocorrelation, and how they can be used to conduct statistical inference.
This chapter focuses on inference methods under different scenarios with an emphasis on the most general case. We introduce different methods based on smoothing methods, the self-normalization approach, and different types of bootstrap.
This chapter introduces what a time series is and defines the important decomposition into trend, seasonal, and cycle that guides our thinking. We introduce a number of datasets used in the book and plot them to show their key features in terms of these components.
Coronavirus disease-2019 precipitated the rapid deployment of novel therapeutics, which led to operational and logistical challenges for healthcare organizations. Four health systems participated in a qualitative study to abstract lessons learned, challenges, and promising practices from implementing neutralizing monoclonal antibody (nMAb) treatment programs. Lessons are summarized under three themes that serve as critical building blocks for health systems to rapidly deploy novel therapeutics during a pandemic: (1) clinical workflows, (2) data infrastructure and platforms, and (3) governance and policy. Health systems must be sufficiently agile to quickly scale programs and resources in times of uncertainty. Real-time monitoring of programs, policies, and processes can help support better planning and improve program effectiveness. The lessons and promising practices shared in this study can be applied by health systems for distribution of novel therapeutics beyond nMAbs and toward future pandemics and public health emergencies.
This study investigated cases of pregnancy-related listeriosis in British Columbia (BC), Canada, from 2005 to 2014. We described all diagnosed cases in pregnant women (n = 15) and neonates (n = 7), estimated the excess healthcare costs associated with listeriosis, and calculated the fraction of stillbirths attributable to listeriosis, and mask cell sizes 1–5 due to data requirements. Pregnant women had a median gestational age of 31 weeks at listeriosis onset (range: 20–39) and on average delivered at a median of 37 weeks gestation (range: 20–40). Neonates experienced complications but no fatalities. Stillbirths occurred in 1–5 of 15 pregnant women with listeriosis, and very few (0.05–0.24%) of the 2,088 stillbirths in BC in the 10 years were attributed to listeriosis (exact numbers masked). Pregnant women and neonates with listeriosis had significantly more hospital visits, days in the hospital and physician visits than those without listeriosis. Pregnant women with listeriosis had 2.59 times higher mean total healthcare costs during their pregnancy, and neonates with listeriosis had 9.85 times higher mean total healthcare costs during their neonatal period, adjusting for various factors. Despite small case numbers and no reported deaths, these results highlight the substantial additional health service use and costs associated with individual cases of pregnancy-related listeriosis in BC.
In this short note, we show that every convex, order-bounded above functional on a Fréchet lattice is automatically continuous. This improves a result in Ruszczyński and Shapiro ((2006) Mathematics of Operations Research31(3), 433–452.) and applies to many deviation and variability measures. We also show that an order-continuous, law-invariant functional on an Orlicz space is strongly consistent everywhere, extending a result in Krätschmer et al. ((2017) Finance and Stochastics18(2), 271–295.).
Buildings employ an ensemble of technical systems like those for heating and ventilation. Ontologies such as Brick, IFC, SSN/SOSA, and SAREF have been created to describe such technical systems in a machine-understandable manner. However, these focus on describing system topology, whereas several relevant use cases (e.g., automated fault detection and diagnostics (AFDD)) also need knowledge about the physical processes. While mathematical simulation can be used to model physical processes, these are practically expensive to run and are not integrated with mainstream technical systems ontologies today. We propose to describe the effect of component actuation on underlying physical mechanisms within component stereotypes. These stereotypes are linked to actual component instances in the technical system description, thereby accomplishing an integration of knowledge about system structure and physical processes. We contribute an ontology for such stereotypes and show that it covers 100% of Brick heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) components. We further show that the ontology enables automatically inferring relationships between components in a real-world building in most cases, except in two situations where component dependencies are underreported. This is due to missing component models for passive parts like splits and join in ducts, and hence points at concrete future extensions of the Brick ontology. Finally, we demonstrate how AFDD applications can utilize the resulting knowledge graph to find expected consequences of an action, or conversely, to identify components that may be responsible for an observed state of the process.
This study explored the effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy on neonatal outcomes among women from the general Dutch population. VASCO is an ongoing prospective cohort study aimed at assessing vaccine effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination. Pregnancy status was reported at baseline and through regular follow-up questionnaires. As an extension to the main study, all female participants who reported to have been pregnant between enrolment (May–December 2021) and January 2023 were requested to complete an additional questionnaire on neonatal outcomes. Multivariable linear and logistic regression analyses were used to determine the associations between self-reported SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy and neonatal outcomes, adjusted for age, educational level, and presence of a medical risk condition. Infection analyses were additionally adjusted for COVID-19 vaccination before and during pregnancy, and vaccination analyses for SARS-CoV-2 infection before and during pregnancy. Of 312 eligible participants, 232 (74%) completed the questionnaire. In total, 196 COVID-19 vaccinations and 115 SARS-CoV-2 infections during pregnancy were reported. Infections were mostly first infections (86; 75%), caused by the Omicron variant (95; 83%), in women who had received ≥1 vaccination prior to infection (101; 88%). SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy was not significantly associated with gestational age (β = 1.7; 95%CI: −1.6–5.0), birth weight (β = 82; −59 to 223), Apgar score <9 (odds ratio (OR): 1.3; 0.6–2.9), postpartum hospital stay (OR: 1.0; 0.6–1.8), or neonatal intensive care unit admission (OR: 0.8; 0.2–3.2). COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy was not significantly associated with gestational age (β = −0.4; −4.0 to 3.2), birth weight (β = 88; −64 to 240), Apgar score <9 (OR: 0.9; 0.4–2.3), postpartum hospital stay (OR: 0.9; 0.5–1.7), or neonatal intensive care unit admission (OR: 1.6; 0.4–8.6). In conclusion, this study did not find an effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy on any of the studied neonatal outcomes among a general Dutch, largely vaccinated, population. Together with data from other studies, this supports the safety of COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy.