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This chapter is concerned with different approaches to accounting for trend and seasonal components. We consider both deterministic and stochastic approaches and show the overlap and contrast between these approaches. Estimation and inference are treated.
This chapter introduces the frequency-domain view and how this way of thinking can help with understanding periodic behavior and cycles. We define the spectral density function and how commonly used filters affect the spectral shape. We discuss estimation by the periodogram and smoothing methods.
In this chapter we consider the continuous-time setting. We consider some classical models and their estimation, and the more recent literature on high-frequency econometrics.
In this chapter we consider the question of forecasting. We consider model-based and ad hoc approaches to this question. We discuss the issue of forecast evaluation and comparison.
This chapter introduces the state space model and shows how this can be adapted to represent a wide variety of models of use in economics and finance. We define the Kalman filter and show how it can be implemented in leading examples.
This chapter introduces more formal concepts like stationarity and mixing, and explains why they are needed. We also define the autocorrelation function and describe its properties and how it is estimated from sample data. We discuss the properties of the estimator of the mean and autocorrelation, and how they can be used to conduct statistical inference.
This chapter focuses on inference methods under different scenarios with an emphasis on the most general case. We introduce different methods based on smoothing methods, the self-normalization approach, and different types of bootstrap.
This chapter introduces what a time series is and defines the important decomposition into trend, seasonal, and cycle that guides our thinking. We introduce a number of datasets used in the book and plot them to show their key features in terms of these components.
Coronavirus disease-2019 precipitated the rapid deployment of novel therapeutics, which led to operational and logistical challenges for healthcare organizations. Four health systems participated in a qualitative study to abstract lessons learned, challenges, and promising practices from implementing neutralizing monoclonal antibody (nMAb) treatment programs. Lessons are summarized under three themes that serve as critical building blocks for health systems to rapidly deploy novel therapeutics during a pandemic: (1) clinical workflows, (2) data infrastructure and platforms, and (3) governance and policy. Health systems must be sufficiently agile to quickly scale programs and resources in times of uncertainty. Real-time monitoring of programs, policies, and processes can help support better planning and improve program effectiveness. The lessons and promising practices shared in this study can be applied by health systems for distribution of novel therapeutics beyond nMAbs and toward future pandemics and public health emergencies.