Fed cattle profitability is determined by complicated dynamic processes of body growth, carcass development, and seasonal prices. A structural model is constructed to contend with all these dynamic processes to predict optimal market timing. Informed simulations are conducted and compared to those observed in the data, as well as to a previous model ignoring the evolution of carcass value. The results indicate that significant improvements to profitability are attainable with the new method. The results also indicate the opportunity cost of not accounting for carcass value, even with error, is more severe than when these dynamics are ignored.

Serpentinization of ultramafic rocks in the sea and on land leads to the generation of alkaline fluids rich in molecular hydrogen (H2) and methane (CH4) that favour the formation of carbonate mineralization, such as veins in the sub-seafloor, seafloor carbonate chimneys and terrestrial hyperalkaline spring deposits. Examples of this type of seawater–rock interaction and the formation of serpentinization-derived carbonates in a shallow-marine environment are scarce, and almost entirely lacking in the geological record. Here we present evidence for serpentinization-induced fluid seepage in shallow-marine sedimentary rocks from the Upper Cretaceous (upper Campanian to lower Maastrichtian) Qahlah Formation at Jebel Huwayyah, United Arab Emirates. The research object is a metre-scale structure (the Jebel Huwayyah Mound) formed of calcite-cemented sand grains, which formed a positive seafloor feature. The Jebel Huwayyah Mound contains numerous vertically orientated fluid conduits containing two main phases of calcite cement. We use C and O stable isotopes and elemental composition to reconstruct the fluids from which these cements precipitated and infer that the fluids consisted of variable mixtures of seawater and fluids derived from serpentinization of the underlying Semail Ophiolite. Based on their negative δ13C values, hardgrounds in the same section as the Jebel Huwayyah Mound may also have had a similar origin. The Jebel Huwayyah Mound shows that serpentinization of the Semail Ophiolite by seawater occurred very soon after obduction and marine transgression, a process that continued through to the Miocene, and, with interaction of meteoric water, up to the present day.

Replication is already mainstream in areas of psychology that use small-N designs. Replication failures often result from weak theory, weak measurement, and weak control over error variance. These are hallmarks of phenomenon-based research with sparse data. Small-N designs, which focus on understanding processes, treat the individual rather than the experiment as the unit of replication and largely circumvent these problems.

Ice-shelf basal melting is tightly coupled to ice-shelf morphology. Ice shelves, in turn, are coupled to grounded ice via their influence on compressive stress at the grounding line (‘ice-shelf buttressing’). Here, we examine this interaction using a local parameterization that relates the basal melt rate to the ice-shelf thickness gradient. This formulation permits a closed-form solution for a steady-state ice tongue. Time-dependent numerical simulations reveal the spatial and temporal evolution of ice-shelf/ice-stream systems in response to changes in ocean temperature, and the influence of morphology-dependent melting on grounding-line retreat. We find that a rapid (<1 year) re-equilibration in upstream regions of ice shelves establishes a spatial pattern of basal melt rates (relative to the grounding line) that persists over centuries. Coupling melting to ice-shelf shape generally, but not always, increases grounding-line retreat rates relative to a uniform distribution with the same area- average melt rate. Because upstream ice-shelf thickness gradients and retreat rates increase nonlinearly with thermal forcing, morphology-dependent melting is more important to the response of weakly buttressed, strongly forced ice streams grounded on beds that slope upwards towards the ocean (e.g. those in the Amundsen Sea).

Much of the evidence for theories in visual search (including Hulleman & Olivers' [H&O's]) comes from inferences made using changes in mean RT as a function of the number of items in a display. We have known for more than 40 years that these inferences are based on flawed reasoning and obscured by model mimicry. Here we describe a method that avoids these problems.

This paper analyzes in detail the role of environmental and economic shocks in the migration of the 1930s. The 1940 US Census of Population asked every inhabitant where they lived five years earlier, a unique source for understanding migration flows and networks. Earlier research documented migrant origins and destinations, but we will show how short-term and annual weather conditions at sending locations in the 1930s explain those flows, and how they operated through agricultural success. Beyond demographic data, we use data about temperature and precipitation, plus data about agricultural production from the agricultural census. The widely known migration literature for the 1930s describes an era of relatively low migration, with much of the migration that did occur radiating outward from the Dust Bowl region and the cotton South. Our work about the complete United States will provide a fuller examination of migration in this socially and economically important era.

A behavioral drive directed solely at minimizing prediction error would cause an agent to seek out states of unchanging, and thus easily predictable, sensory inputs (such as a dark room). The default to an evolutionarily encoded prior to avoid such untenable behaviors is unsatisfying. We suggest an alternate information theoretic interpretation to address this dilemma.

The breadth-first search adopted by Bayesian researchers to map out the conceptual space and identify what the framework can do is beneficial for science and reflective of its collaborative and incremental nature. Theoretical pluralism among researchers facilitates refinement of models within various levels of analysis, which ultimately enables effective cross-talk between different levels of analysis.

Pyroelectric infrared (IR) detectors based on perovskite oxides are of interest in part because of their lack of need for cooling, which makes them relatively more affordable and operationally simpler than cooled photon detector systems. We are investigating two methods for low-cost growth of perovskite oxide thin films, namely, a bio-inspired, low-temperature synthesis method and a modified industry-standard metalorganic solution deposition (MOSD) method. Subsequent to film synthesis, we utilize direct-write laser phase conversion and micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) fabrication for development of an uncooled IR focal plane array (FPA). Film growth, crystallization and MEMS processes are compatible with monolithic integration of the detector pixels directly onto Si readout integrated circuits (ROICs).

The article discusses the conceptual and methodological challenges of comparative economic history, focusing on recent debates concerning alternative pathways of development in Europe and Asia, the agricultural systems of early modern England and the lower Yangzi region in China, and the historical demography of Eurasia. The article concludes that such debates support the perspective that there is substantial path dependency and contingency in economic history and that alternative development paths can be discerned across and within Europe and Asia.