Despite governors’ crucial roles in shaping important policies, including abortion, education, and infrastructure, forecasters have paid little attention to gubernatorial elections. We posit that institutional idiosyncrasies and lack of public opinion data have exacerbated the classic problem facing all election forecasts: there are too many predictors and too few cases, leading to overfitting. To address these problems, we combine new governor and state-level presidential approval data with a machine-learning approach, LASSO, for variable selection. LASSO examines numerous variables but retains only those that substantively improve model performance. Results demonstrate the efficacy of gubernatorial and presidential approval ratings measured two quarters preelection in predicting both incumbent-party vote share and election winners in out-of-sample predictions. For 2022, our approach outperformed the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voting Index and compared well with 538’s Election Day prediction. For 2024, our LASSO-Popularity model predictions indicate that it will likely be a difficult year for Democrats in gubernatorial contests.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Childhood Sjögren’s disease (cSD) is a rare autoimmune disease. Despite the profound impact on children and their families, pediatric-specific clinical trials to inform therapeutic strategies in cSD are lacking. In 2022 we participated in the Trial Innovation Network (TIN) Design Lab with the purpose of designing a series of N-of-1 trials for cSD. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: New medications have the potential to be safe/effective treatments for cSD but must be evaluated in randomized trials. To overcome limitations of traditional parallel-group designs given the rarity of cSD, we developed an N-of-1 trial approach. Our proposal was selected by the Tufts TIN Design Lab. The Design Lab multi-stakeholder process involved parents of and patients with cSD, pediatric and adult rheumatologists, and experts in clinical trial design and outcomes. We engaged all stakeholders in protocol development to maximize the impact of the proposed approach on clinical care, ensure a successful recruitment plan, and inform the choice of endpoints as there are no widely accepted cSD outcome measures to determine treatment efficacy. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Using the Design Lab methodology, we clarified the N-of-1 study goals and engaged in an iterative process to develop a “briefing book” that ensured a sound premise for our study. We reviewed and accumulated published literature to support our focus on mucosal/glandular manifestations, identified potential interventions to be used in the N-of-1 trials, and enumerated possible outcomes, including outcomes important to patient/parents. This work culminated in a full-day Design Lab event that included multiple stakeholders who provided expertise from different perspectives on the full drug development pathway. Study design feedback focused on three specific areas. 1) Inclusion and exclusion criteria; 2) Identification of outcome measures; 3) Treatment and washout periods. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: To address the critical need and move treatment of cSD forward, we are designing a prototype N-of-1 trial in children with rheumatic disease. We will continue to engage stakeholders by using a series of Delphi surveys and an in-person meeting to create composite outcome measures to test cSD therapies in personalized trials.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: This study examined youth tobacco use, disaggregated by sexual and gender minority (SGM) identity and race, in Massachusetts before and after the state implemented a flavored tobacco restriction. We assessed if the policy differentially impacted groups that have had higher rates of flavored tobacco use (i.e., SGM and African Americans [AAs]). METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Data for this analysis came from the 2019 and 2021 Massachusetts Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), a biennial, national survey conducted among high school students, provided by the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education. Changes in current use of cigarettes and e-cigarettes between 2019 and 2021 were examined for the entire sample and by SGM identity and race/ethnicity. Current cigarette use and current e-cigarette use were defined as reporting any use of the product in the past 30 days. We received confirmation from the IRB that because the data are de-identified and available to the public, this research is considered Not Human Subjects Research. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Between 2019 and 2021, current cigarette use and current e-cigarette use decreased for the entire sample (3.78% to 2.79% and 27.69% to 15.74%, respectively). Decreases were also observed after disaggregating results, but smaller changes were observed among minoritized groups (i.e., SGM and AAs), particularly for e-cigarettes. Current e-cigarette use decreased 25.56% among individuals identifying as SGM (28.14% to 20.95%) compared to a 49.33% decrease among non-SGM individuals (27.63% to 14.0%). Among all races, AAs had the lowest prevalence of current e-cigarette use in 2019 (15.10%), but also saw the lowest percentage decrease (17.68%). Among whites, current e-cigarette use decreased 45.75% from 32.33% in 2019 to 17.54% in 2021. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: After implementation of Massachusetts’ flavored tobacco restriction, current cigarette and e-cigarette use declined among Massachusetts youth overall and among groups that have been most affected by flavored tobacco. However, minoritized groups (i.e., SGMs, AAs) had lower percentage decreases compared to non-minoritized groups.

The effects of humic acid (HA) on the crystallization of precipitation products of Al under mildly acidic to alkaline conditions were investigated. The extent of Al precipitation substantially decreased with increasing HA concentration (0 to 75 µg/ml) in the pH range 6 to 10 during the 80-day aging period. The X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) data show that, at pH 6.0, the amount of pseudoboehmite formed in the systems decreased with the increasing concentration of HA present. The proportion of Al hydroxide polymorphs (gibbsite and bayerite) was greatly influenced by the amounts of HA present in the systems. At pH 6.0 and HA concentration of 37.5 µg/ml, all the precipitation products of Al were noncrystalline. At pH 8.0 and a HA concentration of 12.5 µg/ml, the formation of gibbsite and bayerite was completely inhibited and only pseudoboehmite was evident in the XRD patterns. Further increase in HA concentration (25–75 µg/ml HA) at pH 8.0 resulted in no precipitation of Al, and only a broad peak at ∼3.3 Å, characteristic of HA, was observed. The XRD patterns of the precipitates of Al formed in the absence of HA at pH 10.0 showed the characteristic peaks of bayerite. At pH 10.0, the precipitation products of Al formed even at the HA concentration of 2.5 µg/ml yielded no XRD peaks. Infrared absorption spectra and transmission electron micrographs of the precipitation products of Al formed in the systems studied substantiate the findings obtained by XRD. The data obtained in this study indicate that HA affects the formation of Al hydroxide polymorphs, pseudoboehmites and short-range ordered mineral colloids.

Changes in hydraulic conductivity and clay dispersivity of clay-sand mixtures (four reference smectites and Fithian illite) as a function of concentration (0.01 M Cl− and distilled water) and sodium adsorption ratio (SAR ≤ 30) of the percolating solution were measured. In addition, the effect of sand percentage, sand particle size, and addition of AlCl3 and FeCl3 on the hydraulic conductivity of the mixtures were measured.

Clay dispersion and migration out of the 3% clay columns was substantial. The clay dispersed only in the distilled water system; dispersion increased with an increase in the percentage of exchangeable Na and was about the same for the Wyoming montmorillonite and Fithian illite. Conversely, the clay swelled in the 0.01 M Cl− solution. The swelling of the montmorillonites increased in the order: Upton, Wyoming = Belle Fourche, South Dakota > Polkville, Mississippi > Otay, California, and was higher than that of the Fithian illite. The swelling and dispersion of the clay accounted for the changes in hydraulic conductivity.

Mixtures treated with FeCl3 and AlCl3 were leached with NaCl-CaCl2 solutions until the pH of the effluent exceeded 6.5. The composition of the exchangeable phase was then determined by the SAR of the leach solutions. At pH > 6.5, the polycations hydrolyzed and were present as the hydroxy-polymer species. The hydraulic conductivity of the mixtures decreased as exchangeable Na increased, but the decrease was less than in untreated mixtures, AlCl3 was more effective in maintaining hydraulic conductivity than FeCl3. In montmorillonite clay with an ESP of 20, less than 5% of a complete Al-interlayer was enough to prevent a reduction in hydraulic conductivity. Packets in the day systems tested explain the high efficiency of the Fe and Al polycations.

In a previous paper, we used powder X-ray diffraction and changes in magnetic susceptibility to argue the importance of pedogenic maghemite to soils and the efficacy of the chemical extractant citrate-bicarbonate-dithionite (CBD) to preferentially remove pedogenic maghemite from soil samples while not removing coarse-grained magnetite. Although X-ray diffraction provides strong support for this contention, Mössbauer spectroscopy is the method of choice for determining the oxidation state of iron in minerals and for inferring mineralogy of the iron oxide phases. Our objective in this work was to seek confirming evidence of the importance of maghemite as a pedogenic mineral and the usefulness of the CBD procedure in separating pedogenic maghemite from lithogenic magnetite. We present Mössbauer data on magnetic fractions from pre- and post-CBD treated soil samples. Six of the 10 samples had only maghemite as the sextet component and after CBD treatment, four lost between 96 and 100% of the magnetic susceptibility. Two samples were interpreted as highly oxidized magnetite or a mixture of magnetite and maghemite. We cannot distinguish between these with Mössbauer spectroscopy. In the remaining two samples, iron existed as hematite, ilmenite, magnetite and minor (<10%) amounts of maghemite. Our results provide additional support for pedogenic maghemite in soils and for the preferential removal of maghemite by the CBD procedure.

Multi-cell positron traps have been proposed to accumulate and store large numbers of positrons (e.g. ${\ge }10^{10}$). This design arranges lines of Penning–Malmberg traps (‘cells’) on and off the magnetic axis in a vacuum chamber in a common, uniform magnetic field. Confinement considerations impose additional constraints on the magnetic field beyond the usual on-axis homogeneity requirements. These requirements are discussed. A prototype magnetic field and associated coil geometry is suggested to achieve good single-component plasma confinement in all cells. Experimental confinement data as a function of electrode alignment with respect to a nominally uniform magnetic field are also presented. These results are related to the field-alignment considerations of the magnet design study.

The multi-cell Penning–Malmberg trap concept has been proposed as a way to accumulate and confine unprecedented numbers of antiparticles, an attractive but challenging goal. We report on the commissioning and first results (using electron plasmas) of the World's second prototype of such a trap, which builds and improves on the findings of its predecessor. Reliable alignment of both ‘master’ and ‘storage’ cells with the axial magnetic field has enabled confinement of plasmas, without use of the ‘rotating wall’ (RW) compression technique, for over an hour in the master cell and tens of seconds in the storage cells. In the master cell, attachment to background neutrals is found to be the main source of charge loss, with an overall charge-confinement time of 8.6 h. Transfer to on-axis and off-axis storage cells has been demonstrated, with an off-axis transfer rate of $50\,\%$ of the initial particles, and confinement times in the storage cells in the tens of seconds (again, without RW compression). This, in turn, has enabled the first simultaneous plasma confinement in two off-axis cells, a milestone for the multi-cell trap concept.

This article introduces the State Executive Approval Database, a dataset of gubernatorial approval ratings that updates and adds to data previously collected by Beyle et al. In addition to the survey marginals, the dataset presents continuous quarterly and annual measures of the latent level of governor approval that are amenable for time series analysis. After evaluating how survey data availability varies across states and over time, I use the data to evaluate whether governors receive a honeymoon. While new governors do not have higher than expected levels of approval, the public expresses comparatively low levels of disapproval for new governors. This honeymoon is largely restricted to their first quarter in office and only occurs when they are elected to their first term. Governors who take office after their predecessor resigned get a slightly longer and more sustained reprieve from disapproval. Governor approval is also significantly shaped by unemployment levels in their state. These data will provide scholars with new opportunities to study accountability and representation at the state level.

Democracy is weakened when citizens and elites do not criticize actions or actors that undermine its principles. Yet this study documents a widespread pattern of partisan rationalization in how elites and the public evaluate democratic performance in Latin America. Survey data show that those whose party controls the presidency consistently express positive evaluations of the current state of democratic competition and institutions even when democracy in their country is weak. This pattern emerges in both mass survey data and among elected elites. These data have a worrying implication: if only the political opposition is willing to publicly acknowledge and sound the alarm when democracy is under attack, public pressure to protect democracy is likely to be dramatically reduced.

A robust economy is assumed to bolster leaders' standing. This ignores how benefits of growth are distributed. Extending the partisan models of economic voting, we theorize executives are more likely rewarded when gains from growth go to their constituents. Analyses of presidential approval in 18 Latin American countries support our pro-constituency model of accountability. When economic inequality is high, growth concentrates among the rich, and approval of right-of-center presidents is higher. Leftist presidents benefit from growth when gains are more equally distributed. Further analyses show growth and inequality inform perceptions of personal finances differently based on wealth, providing a micro-mechanism behind the aggregate findings. Study results imply that the economy is not purely a valence issue, but also a position issue.

We describe here efforts to create and study magnetized electron–positron pair plasmas, the existence of which in astrophysical environments is well-established. Laboratory incarnations of such systems are becoming ever more possible due to novel approaches and techniques in plasma, beam and laser physics. Traditional magnetized plasmas studied to date, both in nature and in the laboratory, exhibit a host of different wave types, many of which are generically unstable and evolve into turbulence or violent instabilities. This complexity and the instability of these waves stem to a large degree from the difference in mass between the positively and the negatively charged species: the ions and the electrons. The mass symmetry of pair plasmas, on the other hand, results in unique behaviour, a topic that has been intensively studied theoretically and numerically for decades, but experimental studies are still in the early stages of development. A levitated dipole device is now under construction to study magnetized low-energy, short-Debye-length electron–positron plasmas; this experiment, as well as a stellarator device that is in the planning stage, will be fuelled by a reactor-based positron source and make use of state-of-the-art positron cooling and storage techniques. Relativistic pair plasmas with very different parameters will be created using pair production resulting from intense laser–matter interactions and will be confined in a high-field mirror configuration. We highlight the differences between and similarities among these approaches, and discuss the unique physics insights that can be gained by these studies.

The association between how citizens perceive economic performance, insecurity, or corruption and how they evaluate the president varies systematically across Latin American countries and within them over time. In particular, while presidential popularity reflects these outcomes in the average Latin American country, survey data from 2006–17 confirm that the connection between government performance and presidential approval is generally stronger when unfragmented party systems or single-party majority governments make assessments of political responsibility easier. While these results suggest that the region’s citizens do not blindly blame the president for outcomes where political responsibility should be shared, they also remind us that there are many countries in the region where fragmented party systems weaken the conditions for effective political accountability.

We will present a comparison of serum antineuronal antibody profiles in children with OCD-only (n=13), PANDAS + OCD (n=20), CTD + OCD (n=23), and age-matched controls (n=29). Detection methods used to evaluate anti-brain antibodies included immunohistochemistry (striatum), ELISA (BA 9/10, BA 11, caudate, and cingulate gyrus), and Western immunoblotting (BA 9/10, BA 11, caudate, and cingulate gyrus).

Immunublotting was further used to assess the presence and concentration of putative antigens identified in post-streptococcal patients, i.e., *- and *-enolase, aldolase C, pyruvate kinase M1 and tubulin. Anti-lysoganglioside GM1 activity was measured by competitive inhibition.