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Military Servicemembers and Veterans are at elevated risk for suicide, but rarely self-identify to their leaders or clinicians regarding their experience of suicidal thoughts. We developed an algorithm to identify posts containing suicide-related content on a military-specific social media platform.
Methods
Publicly-shared social media posts (n = 8449) from a military-specific social media platform were reviewed and labeled by our team for the presence/absence of suicidal thoughts and behaviors and used to train several machine learning models to identify such posts.
Results
The best performing model was a deep learning (RoBERTa) model that incorporated post text and metadata and detected the presence of suicidal posts with relatively high sensitivity (0.85), specificity (0.96), precision (0.64), F1 score (0.73), and an area under the precision-recall curve of 0.84. Compared to non-suicidal posts, suicidal posts were more likely to contain explicit mentions of suicide, descriptions of risk factors (e.g. depression, PTSD) and help-seeking, and first-person singular pronouns.
Conclusions
Our results demonstrate the feasibility and potential promise of using social media posts to identify at-risk Servicemembers and Veterans. Future work will use this approach to deliver targeted interventions to social media users at risk for suicide.
With the recent discovery of a dozen dusty star-forming galaxies and around 30 quasars at z > 5 that are hyper-luminous in the infrared (μ LIR > 1013 L⊙, where μ is a lensing magnification factor), the possibility has opened up for SPICA, the proposed ESA M5 mid-/far-infrared mission, to extend its spectroscopic studies toward the epoch of reionisation and beyond. In this paper, we examine the feasibility and scientific potential of such observations with SPICA’s far-infrared spectrometer SAFARI, which will probe a spectral range (35–230 μm) that will be unexplored by ALMA and JWST. Our simulations show that SAFARI is capable of delivering good-quality spectra for hyper-luminous infrared galaxies at z = 5 − 10, allowing us to sample spectral features in the rest-frame mid-infrared and to investigate a host of key scientific issues, such as the relative importance of star formation versus AGN, the hardness of the radiation field, the level of chemical enrichment, and the properties of the molecular gas. From a broader perspective, SAFARI offers the potential to open up a new frontier in the study of the early Universe, providing access to uniquely powerful spectral features for probing first-generation objects, such as the key cooling lines of low-metallicity or metal-free forming galaxies (fine-structure and H2 lines) and emission features of solid compounds freshly synthesised by Population III supernovae. Ultimately, SAFARI’s ability to explore the high-redshift Universe will be determined by the availability of sufficiently bright targets (whether intrinsically luminous or gravitationally lensed). With its launch expected around 2030, SPICA is ideally positioned to take full advantage of upcoming wide-field surveys such as LSST, SKA, Euclid, and WFIRST, which are likely to provide extraordinary targets for SAFARI.
Measurements in the infrared wavelength domain allow direct assessment of the physical state and energy balance of cool matter in space, enabling the detailed study of the processes that govern the formation and evolution of stars and planetary systems in galaxies over cosmic time. Previous infrared missions revealed a great deal about the obscured Universe, but were hampered by limited sensitivity.
SPICA takes the next step in infrared observational capability by combining a large 2.5-meter diameter telescope, cooled to below 8 K, with instruments employing ultra-sensitive detectors. A combination of passive cooling and mechanical coolers will be used to cool both the telescope and the instruments. With mechanical coolers the mission lifetime is not limited by the supply of cryogen. With the combination of low telescope background and instruments with state-of-the-art detectors SPICA provides a huge advance on the capabilities of previous missions.
SPICA instruments offer spectral resolving power ranging from R ~50 through 11 000 in the 17–230 μm domain and R ~28.000 spectroscopy between 12 and 18 μm. SPICA will provide efficient 30–37 μm broad band mapping, and small field spectroscopic and polarimetric imaging at 100, 200 and 350 μm. SPICA will provide infrared spectroscopy with an unprecedented sensitivity of ~5 × 10−20 W m−2 (5σ/1 h)—over two orders of magnitude improvement over what earlier missions. This exceptional performance leap, will open entirely new domains in infrared astronomy; galaxy evolution and metal production over cosmic time, dust formation and evolution from very early epochs onwards, the formation history of planetary systems.
Prior research has documented shared heritable contributions to non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) and suicidal ideation (SI) as well as NSSI and suicide attempt (SA). In addition, trauma exposure has been implicated in risk for NSSI and suicide. Genetically informative studies are needed to determine common sources of liability to all three self-injurious thoughts and behaviors, and to clarify the nature of their associations with traumatic experiences.
Methods
Multivariate biometric modeling was conducted using data from 9526 twins [59% female, mean age = 31.7 years (range 24–42)] from two cohorts of the Australian Twin Registry, some of whom also participated in the Childhood Trauma Study and the Nicotine Addiction Genetics Project.
Results
The prevalences of high-risk trauma exposure (HRT), NSSI, SI, and SA were 24.4, 5.6, 27.1, and 4.6%, respectively. All phenotypes were moderately to highly correlated. Genetic influences on self-injurious thoughts and behaviors and HRT were significant and highly correlated among men [rG = 0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.37–0.81)] and women [rG = 0.56 (0.49–0.63)]. Unique environmental influences were modestly correlated in women [rE = 0.23 (0.01–0.45)], suggesting that high-risk trauma may confer some direct risk for self-injurious thoughts and behaviors among females.
Conclusions
Individuals engaging in NSSI are at increased risk for suicide, and common heritable factors contribute to these associations. Preventing trauma exposure may help to mitigate risk for self-harm and suicide, either directly or indirectly via reductions in liability to psychopathology more broadly. In addition, targeting pre-existing vulnerability factors could significantly reduce risk for life-threatening behaviors among those who have experienced trauma.
The SPICA mid- and far-infrared telescope will address fundamental issues in our understanding of star formation and ISM physics in galaxies. A particular hallmark of SPICA is the outstanding sensitivity enabled by the cold telescope, optimised detectors, and wide instantaneous bandwidth throughout the mid- and far-infrared. The spectroscopic, imaging, and polarimetric observations that SPICA will be able to collect will help in clarifying the complex physical mechanisms which underlie the baryon cycle of galaxies. In particular, (i) the access to a large suite of atomic and ionic fine-structure lines for large samples of galaxies will shed light on the origin of the observed spread in star-formation rates within and between galaxies, (ii) observations of HD rotational lines (out to ~10 Mpc) and fine structure lines such as [C ii] 158 μm (out to ~100 Mpc) will clarify the main reservoirs of interstellar matter in galaxies, including phases where CO does not emit, (iii) far-infrared spectroscopy of dust and ice features will address uncertainties in the mass and composition of dust in galaxies, and the contributions of supernovae to the interstellar dust budget will be quantified by photometry and monitoring of supernova remnants in nearby galaxies, (iv) observations of far-infrared cooling lines such as [O i] 63 μm from star-forming molecular clouds in our Galaxy will evaluate the importance of shocks to dissipate turbulent energy. The paper concludes with requirements for the telescope and instruments, and recommendations for the observing strategy.
IR spectroscopy in the range 12–230 μm with the SPace IR telescope for Cosmology and Astrophysics (SPICA) will reveal the physical processes governing the formation and evolution of galaxies and black holes through cosmic time, bridging the gap between the James Webb Space Telescope and the upcoming Extremely Large Telescopes at shorter wavelengths and the Atacama Large Millimeter Array at longer wavelengths. The SPICA, with its 2.5-m telescope actively cooled to below 8 K, will obtain the first spectroscopic determination, in the mid-IR rest-frame, of both the star-formation rate and black hole accretion rate histories of galaxies, reaching lookback times of 12 Gyr, for large statistically significant samples. Densities, temperatures, radiation fields, and gas-phase metallicities will be measured in dust-obscured galaxies and active galactic nuclei, sampling a large range in mass and luminosity, from faint local dwarf galaxies to luminous quasars in the distant Universe. Active galactic nuclei and starburst feedback and feeding mechanisms in distant galaxies will be uncovered through detailed measurements of molecular and atomic line profiles. The SPICA’s large-area deep spectrophotometric surveys will provide mid-IR spectra and continuum fluxes for unbiased samples of tens of thousands of galaxies, out to redshifts of z ~ 6.
The physical processes driving the chemical evolution of galaxies in the last ~ 11Gyr cannot be understood without directly probing the dust-obscured phase of star-forming galaxies and active galactic nuclei. This phase, hidden to optical tracers, represents the bulk of the star formation and black hole accretion activity in galaxies at 1 < z < 3. Spectroscopic observations with a cryogenic infrared observatory like SPICA, will be sensitive enough to peer through the dust-obscured regions of galaxies and access the rest-frame mid- to far-infrared range in galaxies at high-z. This wavelength range contains a unique suite of spectral lines and dust features that serve as proxies for the abundances of heavy elements and the dust composition, providing tracers with a feeble response to both extinction and temperature. In this work, we investigate how SPICA observations could be exploited to understand key aspects in the chemical evolution of galaxies: the assembly of nearby galaxies based on the spatial distribution of heavy element abundances, the global content of metals in galaxies reaching the knee of the luminosity function up to z ~ 3, and the dust composition of galaxies at high-z. Possible synergies with facilities available in the late 2020s are also discussed.
Background. This paper examines genetic and environmental contributions to risk of cannabis dependence.
Method. Symptoms of cannabis dependence and measures of social, family and individual risk factors were assessed in a sample of 6265 young adult male and female Australian twins born 1964–1971.
Results. Symptoms of cannabis dependence were common: 11·0% of sample (15·1% of men and 7·8% of women) reported two or more symptoms of dependence. Correlates of cannabis dependence included educational attainment, exposure to parental conflict, sexual abuse, major depression, social anxiety and childhood conduct disorder. However, even after control for the effects of these factors, there was evidence of significant genetic effects on risk of cannabis dependence. Standard genetic modelling indicated that 44·7% (95% CI = 15–72·2) of the variance in liability to cannabis dependence could be accounted for by genetic factors, 20·1% (95% CI = 0–43·6) could be attributed to shared environment factors and 35·3% (95% CI = 26·4–45·7) could be attributed to non-shared environmental factors. However, while there was no evidence of significant gender differences in the magnitude of genetic and environmental influences, a model which assumed both genetic and shared environmental influences on risks of cannabis dependence among men and shared environmental but no genetic influences among women provided an equally good fit to the data.
Conclusions. There was consistent evidence that genetic risk factors are important determinants of risk of cannabis dependence among men. However, it remains uncertain whether there are genetic influences on liability to cannabis dependence among women.
The current study examined a stage-based alcohol use trajectory model to test for potential causal effects of earlier drinking milestones on later drinking milestones in a combined sample of two cohorts of Australian monozygotic and same-sex dizygotic twins (N = 7,398, age M = 30.46, SD = 2.61, 61% male, 56% monozygotic twins). Ages of drinking, drunkenness, regular drinking, tolerance, first nontolerance alcohol use disorder symptom, and alcohol use disorder symptom onsets were assessed retrospectively. Ages of milestone attainment (i.e., age-of-onset) and time between milestones (i.e., time-to-event) were examined via frailty models within a multilevel discordant twin design. For age-of-onset models, earlier ages of onset of antecedent drinking milestones increased hazards for earlier ages of onset for more proximal subsequent drinking milestones. For the time-to-event models, however, earlier ages of onset for the “starting” milestone decreased risk for a shorter time period between the starting and the “ending” milestone. Earlier age of onset of intermediate milestones between starting and ending drinking milestones had the opposite effect, increasing risk for a shorter time period between the starting and ending milestones. These results are consistent with a causal effect of an earlier age of drinking milestone onset on temporally proximal subsequent drinking milestones.
DSM-IV specifies a hierarchal diagnostic structure such that an oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) diagnosis is applied only if criteria are not met for conduct disorder (CD). Genetic studies of ODD and CD support a combination of shared genetic and environmental influences but largely ignore the imposed diagnostic structure.
Method
We examined whether ODD and CD share an underlying etiology while accounting for DSM-IV diagnostic specifications. Data from 1446 female twin pairs, aged 11–19 years, were fitted to two-stage models adhering to the DSM-IV diagnostic hierarchy.
Results
The models suggested that DSM-IV ODD–CD covariation is attributed largely to shared genetic influences.
Conclusions
This is the first study, to our knowledge, to examine genetic and environmental overlap among these disorders while maintaining a DSM-IV hierarchical structure. The findings reflect primarily shared genetic influences and specific (i.e. uncorrelated) shared/familial environmental effects on these DSM-IV-defined behaviors. These results have implications for how best to define CD and ODD for future genetically informed analyses.
We present Herschel-SPIRE imaging spectroscopy (194-671 μm) of the bright starburst galaxy M82. We use RADEX and a Bayesian Likelihood Analysis to simultaneously model the temperature, density, column density, and filling factor of both the cool and warm components of molecular gas traced by the entire CO ladder up to J=13-12. The high-J lines observed by SPIRE trace much warmer gas (~500 K) than those observable from the ground. The addition of 13CO (and [C I]) is new and indicates that [C I] may be tracing different gas than 12CO. At such a high temperature, cooling is dominated by molecular hydrogen; we conclude with a discussion on the possible excitation processes in this warm component. Photon-dominated region (PDR) models require significantly higher densities than those indicated by our Bayesian likelihood analysis in order to explain the high-J CO line ratios, though cosmic-ray enhanced PDR models can do a better job reproducing the emission at lower densities. Shocks and turbulent heating are likely required to explain the bright high-J emission.
Questionnaire surveys, while more economical, typically achieve poorer response rates than interview surveys. We used data from a national volunteer cohort of young adult twins, who were scheduled for assessment by questionnaire in 1989 and by interview in 1996-2000, to identify predictors of questionnaire non-response. Out of a total of 8536 twins, 5058 completed the questionnaire survey (59% response rate), and 6255 completed a telephone interview survey conducted a decade later (73% response rate). Multinomial logit models were fitted to the interview data to identify socioeconomic, psychiatric and health behavior correlates of non-response in the earlier questionnaire survey. Male gender, education below University level, and being a dizygotic rather than monozygotic twin, all predicted reduced likelihood of participating in the questionnaire survey. Associations between questionnaire response status and psychiatric history and health behavior variables were modest, with history of alcohol dependence and childhood conduct disorder predicting decreased probability of returning a questionnaire, and history of smoking and heavy drinking more weakly associated with non-response. Body-mass index showed no association with questionnaire non-response. Despite a poor response rate to the self-report questionnaire survey, we found only limited sampling biases for most variables. While not appropriate for studies where socioeconomic variables are critical, it appears that survey by questionnaire, with questionnaire administration by telephone to non-responders, will represent a viable strategy for gene-mapping studies requiring that large numbers of relatives be screened.
Retrospective assessment of maternal smoking or substance use during pregnancy is sometimes unavoidable. The unusually close relationship of twin sister pairs permits comparison of self-report data versus co-twin informant data on substance use during pregnancy. Information about smoking during pregnancy has been gathered from a series of mothers from an Australian volunteer twin panel (576 women reporting on 995 pregnancies), supplemented in many cases by independent ratings of their smoking by twin sister informants (821 pregnancies). Estimates of the proportion of women who had never smoked regularly (56–58%), who had smoked but did not smoke during a particular pregnancy (16–21%), or who smoked throughout the pregnancy (16–18%), were in good agreement whether based on selfreport or twin sister informant data. However, informants underreported cases who smoked during the first trimester but then quit (1–3% versus 7–9% by self-report). Women who smoked throughout pregnancy (by informant report) rarely denied a history of regular smoking (< 1%), although a small proportion of apparent false negative cases were identified where they either denied smoking during a pregnancy (9%) or denied smoking beyond the first trimester (10%). We conclude that retrospective smoking data can safely be used to identify potential associations of later child outcomes with maternal smoking during pregnancy.
Alcohol abuse and dependence are among the most common psychiatric conditions identified in epidemiological surveys of the general population. The aim of this article is to examine the psychometric properties of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, (4th ed.; DSM-IV; American Psychiatric Association, 1994) criteria for alcohol abuse and dependence using latent class analysis (LCA). Six thousand two hundred and sixty-five young Australian twins (median age 30 years) were interviewed by telephone between 1996 and 2000 using a modified version of the Semi-Structured Assessment for the Genetics of Alcoholism (SSAGA). DSM-IV symptoms of alcohol abuse and dependence were collected by structured diagnostic interview and analyzed using methods of LCA. LCA revealed a 4-class solution for women that classified individuals according to the severity of their alcohol- related problems: no/few problems (66.5%), heavy drinking (23.9%), moderate dependence (7.6%) and severe dependence (2.0%). Among men the preferred solution included 5 classes corresponding to no/few problems (46.4%), heavy drinking (34.3%), moderate dependence (12.2%), severe dependence (3.0%) and abuse (4.0%). Evidence of a male-specific class of alcohol-related problems corresponding to abuse partially supports the DSM conceptualization of alcohol use disorders but suggests that this conceptualization — and measurement — may need to be refined for women. Identification of a male- specific abuse class also has important implications for interventions and treatment as these individuals experienced significant alcohol-related problems and comprised approximately 21% of all men classified with an alcohol use disorder.
We use the photoionisation and dust radiative transfer code MOCASSIN to create a model of the dwarf irregular galaxy NGC 4449. The best-matching model reproduces the global optical emission line fluxes and the observed spectral energy distribution (SED) spanning wavelengths from the UV to sub-mm, and requires the bolometric luminosity of 6.25 × 109L⊙ for the underlying stellar component, Mdust/Mgas of 1/680 and Mdust of 2.2 × 106M⊙.
Associations between parental depression and offspring affective and disruptive disorders are well documented. Few genetically informed studies have explored the processes underlying intergenerational associations.
Method
A semi-structured interview assessing DSM-III-R psychiatric disorders was administered to twins (n=1296) from the Australian Twin Register (ATR), their spouses (n=1046) and offspring (n=2555). We used the Children of Twins (CoT) design to delineate the extent to which intergenerational associations were consistent with a causal influence or due to genetic confounds.
Results
In between-family analyses, parental depression was associated significantly with offspring depression [hazard ratio (HR) 1.52, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20–1.93] and conduct disorder (CD; HR 2.27, CI 1.31–3.93). Survival analysis indicated that the intergenerational transmission of depression is consistent with a causal (environmental) inference, with a significant intergenerational association in offspring of discordant monozygotic (MZ) twin pairs (HR 1.39, CI 1.00–1.94). Logistic regression analysis suggested that the parental depression–offspring CD association was due to shared genetic liability in the parents and offspring. No intergenerational association was found when comparing the offspring of discordant MZ twins [odds ratio (OR) 1.41, CI 0.63–3.14], but offspring of discordant dizygotic (DZ) twins differed in their rates of CD (OR 2.53, CI 0.95–6.76). All findings remained after controlling for several measured covariates, including history of depression and CD in the twins' spouses.
Conclusions
The mechanisms underlying associations between parental depression and offspring psychopathology seem to differ depending on the outcome. The results are consistent with a causal environmental role of parental depression in offspring depression whereas common genetic factors account for the association of parental depression and offspring CD.
Wild populations of a small neotropical primate, Geoffroy's tamarin (Saguinus geoffroyi), were studied through 30-s instantaneous observational sampling to identify different canopy habitats used by this tamarin. Tree and shrub canopies were sampled in randomly selected plots and in nearby plots that tamarins were observed to use in the forests of Agua Clara, Panama (28 d, 59 100-m2 plots, 32.25 h of tamarin observations, 27 tamarins in total), and in the nearby forests of Barro Colorado Island (49 d, 29 100-m2 plots, 29.6 h of tamarin observations, 14 tamarins in total). Light penetration through the canopy, ambient temperature and humidity, presence of other primates, stem diameters, plant life-forms, distribution of woody flora, abundance of fleshy fruits and arthropods typically consumed by tamarins and abundance of thorny vegetation and biting arthropods in plots used by tamarins were compared with control plots. Habitats used by tamarins had significantly shorter distances between adjacent tree canopies and between canopies and the ground. There was a random distribution of large insects and fleshy fruits that tamarins are known to eat. Habitat selection by tamarins may not be influenced by spiny vegetation, but tamarins may avoid areas with abundant hooked thorns and blood-sucking arthropods. Mobility along runways in various tiers of a rain-forest canopy may be of primary importance, with local abundance of food being a secondary consideration in habitat selection by this small primate.