Experimental methods are currently being extensively used to elicit subjective values for commodities and projects. Three methodological problems are not systematically addressed in this emerging literature. The first is the potential for laboratory responses to be censored by field opportunities, so that lab responses can be confounded by uncontrolled knowledge of the field; the second is the potential for subjective perceptions about field opportunities, and hence valuation responses, to be affected by the institution used to elicit values; and the third is the potential for some elicitation institutions to influence subjective perceptions of characteristics of the commodity or project being valued, and hence change the very commodity being valued. All three problems result in potential loss of control over the value elicitation process. For example, we show that censoring affects conclusions drawn in a major study of beef packaging valuation. We derive implications for experimental designs that minimize the potential effect of these methodological problems.

The COVID-19 pandemic presents a remarkable opportunity to put to work all of the research that has been undertaken in past decades on the elicitation and structural estimation of subjective belief distributions as well as preferences over atemporal risk, patience, and intertemporal risk. As contributors to elements of that research in laboratories and the field, we drew together those methods and applied them to an online, incentivized experiment in the United States. We have two major findings. First, the atemporal risk premium during the COVID-19 pandemic appeared to change significantly compared to before the pandemic, consistent with theoretical results of the effect of increased background risk on foreground risk attitudes. Second, subjective beliefs about the cumulative level of deaths evolved dramatically over the period between May and November 2020, a volatile one in terms of the background evolution of the pandemic.

Peter Bohm (1935-2005) was the father of modern field experiments. He clearly understood and stated the differences between laboratory experiments and experiments with field counterparts. His research was a clear precursor to the methodology that is now becoming widely accepted as complementary to laboratory experiments.

Choice behavior is typically evaluated by assuming that the data is generated by one latent decision-making process or another. What if there are two (or more) latent decision-making processes generating the observed choices? Some choices might then be better characterized as being generated by one process, and other choices by the other process. A finite mixture model can be used to estimate the parameters of each decision process while simultaneously estimating the probability that each process applies to the sample. We consider the canonical case of lottery choices in a laboratory experiment and assume that the data is generated by expected utility theory and prospect theory decision rules. We jointly estimate the parameters of each theory as well as the fraction of choices characterized by each. The methodology provides the wedding invitation, and the data consummates the ceremony followed by a decent funeral for the representative agent model that assumes only one type of decision process. The evidence suggests support for each theory, and goes further to identify under what demographic domains one can expect to see one theory perform better than the other. We therefore propose a reconciliation of the debate over two of the dominant theories of choice under risk, at least for the tasks and samples we consider. The methodology is broadly applicable to a range of debates over competing theories generated by experimental and non-experimental data.

We reconsider evidence from experiments that claim to show that using “house money” in standard public goods experiments has no effect on behavior. We show that it does have an effect when one examines the data using appropriate statistical methods that consider individual-level responses and account for the error structure of the panel data.

We examine the properties of a popular method for eliciting choices and values from experimental subjects, the multiple price list format. The main advantage of this format is that it is relatively transparent to subjects and provides simple incentives for truthful revelation. The main disadvantages are that it only elicits interval responses, and could be susceptible to framing effects. We consider extensions to address and evaluate these concerns. We conclude that although there are framing effects, they can be controlled for with a design that allows for them. We also find that the elicitation of risk attitudes is sensitive to procedures, subject pools, and the format of the multiple price list table, but that the qualitative findings that participants are generally risk averse is robust. The elicitation of discount rates appear less sensitive to details of the experimental design.

We propose the use of Bayesian estimation of risk preferences of individuals for applications of behavioral welfare economics to evaluate observed choices that involve risk. Bayesian estimation provides more systematic control of the use of informative priors over inferences about risk preferences for each individual in a sample. We demonstrate that these methods make a difference to the rigorous normative evaluation of decisions in a case study of insurance purchases. We also show that hierarchical Bayesian methods can be used to infer welfare reliably and efficiently even with significantly reduced demands on the number of choices that each subject has to make. Finally, we illustrate the natural use of Bayesian methods in the adaptive evaluation of welfare.

We convey our experiences developing and implementing an online experiment to elicit subjective beliefs and economic preferences. The COVID-19 pandemic and associated closures of our laboratories required us to conduct an online experiment in order to collect beliefs and preferences associated with the pandemic in a timely manner. Since we had not previously conducted a similar multi-wave online experiment, we faced design and implementation considerations that are not present when running a typical laboratory experiment. By discussing these details more fully, we hope to contribute to the online experiment methodology literature at a time when many other researchers may be considering conducting an online experiment for the first time. We focus primarily on methodology; in a complementary study we focus on initial research findings.

We examine the ability of eye movement data to help understand the determinants of decision-making over risky prospects. We start with structural models of choice under risk, and use that structure to inform what we identify from the use of process data in addition to choice data. We find that information on eye movements does significantly affect the extent and nature of probability weighting behavior. Our structural model allows us to show the pathway of the effect, rather than simply identifying a reduced form effect. This insight should be of importance for the normative design of choice mechanisms for risky products. We also show that decision-response duration is no substitute for the richer information provided by eye-tracking.

A suite of Georgia kaolinites, ranging from well-ordered to very poorly ordered samples, were studied to explore correlations between degree of structural disorder, geological environment, Fe3+ content, Fe3+ electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectrum, and infrared (IR) hydroxyl-stretching band frequencies and bandwidths. Samples from different localities showed a wide range of disorder which appears to be related to differences in their geological environments. High iron content correlated strongly with low degree of order. The areas of both the I and E components of the EPR spectrum and the fractional I area correlated inversely with degree of order. Fourier-transform IR studies of kaolinites and dickites showed that (1) interlayer hydrogen bonding is weaker in dickite than in kaolinite; (2) frequency of the ν11 stretching band of the inner-surface hydroxyls increases sequentially from well-ordered kaolinite through the disordered structures to well-ordered dickite, which is consistent with a model for disorder based on vacancy displacement; and (3) the character and temperature dependence of the inner hydroxyl-stretching band is not compatible with the crystal structures of kaolinite and dickite as refined by Suitch and Young.

With an annual growth in travel demand of about 5% globally, managing the environmental impact is a challenge. In 2019, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) issued emission reduction targets, including well-to-wake greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduced at least 50% from 2005 levels by 2050. This discusses several technologies from an aircraft design perspective that can contribute to achieving these targets. One thing is certain: aircraft will look different in the future. The Transonic Truss-Braced Wing and Flying V configurations are promising significant efficiency improvements over conventional configurations. Electric propulsion, in various architectures, is becoming a feasible option for general aviation and commuter aircraft. It will be a growing field of aviation with zero-emissions flight and opportunities for special missions. Lastly, this paper discusses methods and design processes that include all relevant disciplines to ensure that the aircraft is optimised as a complete system. While empirical methods are essential for initial design, Multidisciplinary Design Optimisation (MDO) incorporates models and simulations integrated in an optimisation environment to capture critical trade-offs. Concurrent design places domain experts in one site to facilitate collaboration, interaction, and joint decision-making, and to ensure all disciplines are equally considered. It is supported by a Collaborative Design Facility (CDF), an information technology facility with connected hardware and software tools for design analysis.

In this study, we offer a relational approach to theorizing boundaries for the Maya, adapting Mills’ (2018) concept of “boundary objects” as a means of understanding how people and things bridge or cross boundaries and were critical for developing and maintaining allied relations. We trace a network of sites on both sides of the Guatemala–Belize border dating to the Terminal Classic and Postclassic, which are generally characterized as times of increased conflict, movement and migration of people, and disruption in dynastic succession with an emphasis on shared governance. We examine the introduction of northern-style traits in the eastern Maya lowlands during the Terminal Classic and Postclassic periods, including circular and colonnaded buildings and distinctive portable goods such as molded-carved ceramics, phallic and turtle effigies, and other material forms. We suggest that during fractious periods in Maya history, northern traits were implicated in boundary crossing negotiations and entangled relations, which included marriage alliances with “foreigners” as a means of elite legitimation.

A field study was conducted in 2017 and 2018 to determine foliar efficacy of halauxifen-methyl, 2,4-D, or dicamba applied alone and in combination with glyphosate at preplant burndown timing. Experiments were conducted near Painter, VA; Rocky Mount, NC; Jackson, NC; and Gates, NC. Control of horseweed, henbit, purple deadnettle, cutleaf evening primrose, curly dock, purple cudweed, and common chickweed were evaluated. Halauxifen-methyl applied at 5 g ae ha−1 controlled small and large horseweed 89% and 79%, respectively, and was similar to control by dicamba applied at 280 g ae ha−1. Both rates of 2,4-D—533 g ae ha−1(low rate [LR]) or 1,066 g ae ha−1 (high rate [HR])—were less effective than halauxifen-methyl and dicamba for controlling horseweed. Halauxifen-methyl was the only auxin herbicide to control henbit (90%) and purple deadnettle (99%). Cutleaf evening primrose was controlled 74% to 85%, 51%, and 4% by 2,4-D, dicamba, and halauxifen-methyl, respectively. Dicamba and 2,4-D controlled curly dock 59% to 70% and were more effective than halauxifen-methyl (5%). Auxin herbicides applied alone controlled purple cudweed and common chickweed 21% or less. With the exception of cutleaf evening primrose (35%) and curly dock (37%), glyphosate alone provided 95% or greater control of all weeds evaluated. These experiments demonstrate halauxifen-methyl effectively (≥79%) controls horseweed, henbit, and purple deadnettle, whereas common chickweed, curly dock, cutleaf evening primrose, and purple cudweed control by the herbicide is inadequate (≤7%).