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Chapter 8 examines political systems with the highest values of T, or time since the last successful coup. It explains how and why dictatorships as different as the PRIs in Mexico (1929–2000) and the Somoza family’s in Nicaragua (1936–79) effected an autocratic exit out of the coup trap. And it analyzes how the republics of Colombia, Chile, Costa Rica, and Uruguay escaped from golpismo by constructing constitutional democracy. Successful transitions away from the Coup Trap, I find, occur if they survive what I call “trial by fire” – assaults on their authority – that allow them to purge the armed forces of sedition. Escapes from the Coup Trap are also a function of convincing the political opposition to desist from joining coup coalitions, which dictatorships and democracies accomplish in slightly different ways.
Chapter 6 examines five of the nine modal cases of political instability in the region (the seventh chapter examines the other four). These are the ones where T is neither below nor above one standard deviation of its mean. My model anticipates 77 percent of the years with successful military coups in Argentina, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Peru, Panama, Brazil, and Venezuela. Unlike the highly unstable cases I analyze in Chapter 5, each of the modal cases stumbled into more liberalized political orders. Chapter 6 also explores why military coups ended democratic experiments or reformist interludes in Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador, Peru, and Brazil.
The conclusions distill the key findings of this book’s encounter with theory, cross-national statistical models, and case studies. A prediction-centered multi-method approach demonstrates how case studies fill in the causal gaps of cross-national statistical models to explain the rise and fall of the Coup Trap. And the conclusions identify the mechanisms that kept most political systems submerged in chronic instability – and allowed half a dozen to consolidate stable democratic or authoritarian political orders.
Chapter 7 examines how a handful of incumbents managed to establish long-lasting dictatorships in the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Panama, and Venezuela, the four other political systems with modal levels of instability (Chapter 6 examines the five other such systems). This chapter also explains why, of the nine modal cases, only the Venezuelan political system managed to leave the Coup Trap by building a constitutional democracy. It is the ability to continue organizing coup coalitions, I argue, that ends democratic experiments; it takes time for a large enough coalition of interests to impose civilian solutions on acute political conflicts, that is, to punish and therefore prevent defection from its ranks.
Chapter 3 statistically tests implications of my theory of the coup trap. I try to disconfirm my hypotheses by using event history or duration models of instability on a database of military coups, economic variables, political system characteristics, and levels of instability for eighteen countries between 1900 and 2014. While controlling for economic and political variables, statistical models show that autocracies are more unstable than democracies and that instability breeds coups. The likelihood of a successful military coup, in other words, remains high in the wake of the overthrow of a president, especially in non-democratic political orders and during election years. Logit models comparing golpes that manage and do not manage to overthrow governments also confirm a key implication of my theory of the coup trap: that military conspiracies are much more likely to prosper if they count upon the support of the opposition. These findings cement my argument that the overthrow of governments is a function of military as well as civil coalitions that reflect the unstable nature of political competition in less institutionalized political systems.
The first of this chapter’s three goals is to unveil a new catalog of more than 320 military coups, slightly less than half of which succeeded in overthrowing the executive. A second goal is to remind ourselves that elections were an integral part of constitutional or quasi-constitutional political orders – regimes best described as electoral autocracies because their incumbents ran the risk of losing regularly scheduled elections. This chapter concludes by combining data on military coups and regimes to produce a typology of political trajectories – and whose origins and persistence the rest of this book explores, documents, and explains.
Chapter 5 of The Coup Trap in Latin America examines the political systems of Bolivia, Ecuador, and Paraguay, the three most unstable of the region. The model anticipates 89 percent of the years of instability in these systems. It presents qualitative evidence that false positive predictions tell us something important: that conditions can be ripe for a military coup for decades at a time. What I call an atmosphere of crisis – that conflicts between pro- and anti-government supporters are severe enough so that it is increasingly certain that the president’s survival is uncertain – can, in other words, persist for decades. To explain when assaults on the executive take place requires analyzing micro-political factors, which the statistical model cannot easily grasp. This chapter also begins to explain what makes T such a powerful predictor of instability; it turns out to be a proxy for factional strife, which, among other things, disseminates the practical knowledge necessary to organize and execute a military coup d’état.
Chapter 2 provides a political theory of the origins and dynamics of the coup trap. It does not infer the behavior of pro- and anti-forces from their economic interests or their social position but instead argues that structural features of political systems – their competitiveness, how often presidents fall to military coups, and the length of their electoral cycle – explain why instability persists. At its core, the theory argues that the monopolization of power incites the opposition to form coalitions with dissident officers (the “coup coalition”) to oust governments weakened by the recent overthrow of presidents. These structural properties also explain why some coalitions of officers and politicians manage to navigate out of the coup trap, either by forging an autocratic or democratic political order.
Chapter 4 presents and interprets the core results of the prediction-centered multi-method The Coup Trap in Latin America pioneers. It converts the statistical coefficients in Chapter 3 into probability estimates of successful military coups for every country-year, which accurately predict almost 80 percent of the years with such golpes in the region. This chapter reveals that almost 98 percent of its negative predictions – that the armed forces will stay in their barracks – are accurate. Only 2 percent of its negative predictions are false (type 2 errors), which this chapter identifies and begins to analyze. This chapter also begins to explore inaccurate positive predictions of successful golpes (or type 1 errors), showing that the model warns that conditions can be propitious for the unconstitutional seizure of power for years at a time. This chapter uses a key independent variable – T, or time since the last coup – to place political systems in one of three groups, each of which subsequent chapters examine. Chapter 4 is the pivot between the quantitative and qualitative chapters of The Coup Trap in Latin America.
The introduction to The Coup Trap in Latin America outlines this book’s objectives, methods, and key conclusions. My theory, in a nutshell, suggests that the structure of political competition – its formal and informal rules – determines whether a political system sinks into or escapes from the Coup Trap. The introduction discusses the book’s two-pronged multi-method research design, which pioneers the use of statistical predictions to explain when military coups do and do not occur – and uses analytic narratives to assess their plausibility. The introduction also previews the implications of this book’s findings for theories of dictatorship and democracy, for the study of the military coup and instability more generally, and for explanations of regime development in modern Latin America.
We investigate the influence of side-wall wetting on the linear stability of falling liquid films confined in the spanwise direction. A biglobal stability framework is developed, capturing inertia, viscosity, gravity, capillarity and geometric confinement. The base flow exhibits a curved meniscus and a streamwise velocity overshoot near the side walls. Linear stability analysis based on the Navier–Stokes equations is performed in two limiting regimes. In confined channels, where spanwise confinement stabilises moderate-wavenumber perturbations via side-wall boundary layers, wetting weakens this stabilisation; as the contact angle decreases, the neutral curves shift towards the unconfined one-dimensional limit, thus wetting acts as a relative destabilising mechanism. In contrast, in weakly confined channels where side-wall boundary layers do not provide confinement-induced stabilisation, wetting produces a net long-wave stabilisation ($k \rightarrow 0$), significantly increasing the critical Reynolds number. This effect strengthens as the contact angle decreases, indicating a competition between destabilising inertia and stabilising wetting-induced capillary forces. The predicted long-wave stabilisation effect is compared quantitatively with available experimental measurements, showing consistent trends and comparable magnitudes within the accessible parameter range. Perturbation eigenmode structures show that, in confined channels, the relative destabilisation is associated with near-wall vortical structures induced by the meniscus elevation and velocity overshoot, which reduce effective viscous damping. In contrast, in weakly confined channels, stabilisation is consistent with interface tensioning through strong anchoring of the perturbations at the side walls.
Why do governments get overthrown? Why are many political systems chronically unstable? The Coup Trap in Latin America answers these questions by looking to the origins and dynamics of the military coup d'état that, since the late nineteenth century, have turned several Latin American political systems into some of the most unstable in the world. The book also explores how others escaped from chronic instability, either by constructing constitutional democracy (in Chile, Costa Rica, and Uruguay) or by establishing durable autocracies (in Mexico and Nicaragua). The Coup Trap in Latin America pioneers the use of statistical predictions to explain when military coups do and do not occur – and uses historical narratives to illustrate and develop these findings. The book provides an innovative explanation of the unconstitutional seizure of power, making it a valuable resource for political scientists, historians, sociologists, and readers interested in Latin American politics and history.
We investigate the incompressible flow inside a two-dimensional square cavity, driven by the sliding motion of its four lids, all at the same speed and with facing lids moving in opposite directions. The problem has three symmetries: two mirror symmetries with respect to the diagonals and a $\pi$ rotation invariance about the centre of the cavity. The base flow, a steady state that has all three symmetries, is the unique solution at sufficiently low values of the Reynolds number ($ \textit{Re}$) and acts as a global attractor. At higher $ \textit{Re}$, it has become unstable and shares the phase space with a globally attracting space–time symmetric periodic orbit that, in addition to the rotational invariance, is also invariant under evolution over half a period followed by reflection about either of the diagonals. In between, a wealth of solution branches and intervening bifurcations mediate the transition process. In particular, a pair of steady states that break the mirror symmetries but are mirror-symmetry images of each other regulate the appearance and disappearance of a second space–time symmetric periodic orbit and a pair of asymmetric periodic orbits that are also mirror images of each other. The catalogue of instabilities includes both local (two pitchfork, two Hopf, a saddle-node and a cyclic fold) and global (two heteroclinic and one homoclinic) bifurcations. The sequence of transitions is explained in terms of a one-dimensional path through the parameter space of a codimension-four bifurcation: the double zero bifurcation with Z$_2$ symmetry and degeneracy of the third order terms.
We give evidence of non-modal amplification mechanisms driven by swirl intensity from a bi-global linear analysis of a cold swirling flow representative of a premixed swirl burner: non-uniform, compressible, turbulent, enclosed and subject to vortex breakdown passed the expansion. The monolithic computational approach embeds a realistic axisymmetric swirler model in the computational domain. The amplification mechanisms are identified by stability and resolvent analysis under variations of the length of the annular duct section and combustion chamber, the swirl intensity and the swirler position. While the spectrum is affected by changes in the length only, the gain of the resolvent strongly depends on the swirl intensity. The results suggest an acoustically dominated amplification in the combustion chamber and a non-modal hydrodynamic-dominated process driven by the swirl intensity. Inertial waves carrying swirl fluctuations play a key role in the latter. The results are complemented by a resolvent sensitivity analysis that identifies the tip of the inner recirculation region and the surrounding shear layer as a wavemaker region that drives at high swirl numbers the non-modal amplification. The sensitivity of that region also enables the transfer of azimuthal momentum perturbations to axial momentum, hence activating a longitudinal acoustic resonance from azimuthal fluctuations.
Spatial linear instability analysis is employed to investigate the instability of a viscoelastic liquid jet in a co-flowing gas stream. The theoretical model incorporates a non-uniform axial base profile represented by a hyperbolic tangent, capturing the shear layer. The Oldroyd-B model discretised with Chebyshev polynomials is employed, and energy budget analysis is used to interpret underlying mechanisms. At low Weber numbers, the jet evolves axisymmetrically and the instability is governed by interfacial gas-pressure fluctuations; as the Weber number increases, the growing inertia drives a transition of the predominant mode from axisymmetric to helical. At weak elasticity, the instability is also primarily governed by gas-pressure fluctuations. As elasticity increases, the predominant mode transitions from axisymmetric to helical. This transition is accompanied by a migration of disturbance structures from the interface toward the jet interior and an enhanced coupling between velocity perturbation and the basic flow. These trends reveal a new predominant instability mechanism – the elasticity-enhanced shear-driven instability – which is distinct from capillary or Kelvin–Helmholtz instabilities in Newtonian jets. A $\textit{We}$–$El$ phase diagram delineates the boundary between predominant modes and experimental results obtained in a flow-focusing configuration validate the theoretical predictions. Compared with temporal stability results, the spatial framework – by directly resolving the convective downstream amplification of disturbances – achieves quantitative agreement with experiments and highlights the superiority of spatial instability analysis in capturing the dynamics of strongly convective, non-parallel jet flows. These findings provide mechanistic insight into viscoelastic jet instabilities and offer guidance for applications involving droplet and fibre formation in co-flow systems.
The vortex-induced vibration of multiple spring-mounted bodies free to move in the orthogonal direction of the flow is investigated. In a first step, we derive a linear arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian method to solve the fluid–structure linear problem as well as a forced problem where a harmonic motion of the bodies is imposed. We then propose a low computational-cost impedance-based criterion to predict the instability thresholds. A global stability analysis of the fluid–structure system is then performed for a tandem of cylinders and the instability thresholds obtained are found to be in perfect agreement with the predictions of the impedance-based criterion. An extensive parametric study is then performed for a tandem of cylinders and the effects of mass, damping and spacing between the bodies are investigated. Finally we also apply the impedance-based method to a three-body system to show its validity to a higher number of bodies.
The stability of the interface in a core–annular flow (CAF) of two immiscible Newtonian fluids with contrasting densities has been investigated, emphasising the role of strong circumferential rotation for the first time. The aim of the investigation is to give insight into the physical mechanisms underlying interfacial disruption. We examine the combined effects of gravity, interfacial tension, axial and azimuthal shear stresses, and centrifugal force on interface stability. The Rayleigh–Taylor instability, induced by gravity, appears as a spiral mode with a azimuthal wavenumber of one. As gravitational effects decrease, the most unstable mode number increases sharply before decreasing with increasing rotation. This non-monotonic behaviour is attributed to the interplay between azimuthal shear and centrifugal acceleration. We demonstrate that this velocity ratio fundamentally governs the onset of spiral modes by varying the ratio of the axial velocities of the core and annular fluids. Higher Reynolds numbers in the annular phase promote the emergence of higher-order spiral modes concomitant with amplified azimuthal shear at the interface. In a parametric study of the gap between the core and pipe wall, we identified a suppressive effect of reduced annular thickness on the growth of higher azimuthal wavenumbers. An energy budget analysis further delineated distinct mechanisms underpinning each instability regime and clarified transitions between them. These findings extend our understanding of interfacial stability in swirling CAFs and provide a predictive framework to control spiral-mode selection.
A joint experimental–computational investigation was conducted to examine the aerodynamic behaviour of a partially closed cavity model in Mach-6 flow. The model, consisting of a flat plate with a rectangular cavity and a forward-facing hinged door, resulted in a strong 500 Hz fluctuation with a 7.5$^\circ$ door and 25 mm cavity depth. The experiments revealed a recirculation bubble present upstream of the cavity region. The fluctuations, detected by surface pressure sensors on the upper surface, upstream cavity wall and cavity floor, were caused by oscillations of the separation bubble along the streamwise axis. Notably, this phenomenon is not explained by established empirical models for cavity flows, such as the Rossiter mechanism or closed-box acoustic resonance. To further elucidate the flow physics, detached eddy simulations (DESs) of the flow were conducted, providing a detailed understanding of the complex flow phenomena. The DES results complemented the experimental data, offering insights into the unsteady flow behaviour and the mechanisms driving the pressure fluctuations. Additional experiments and simulations were conducted for other door angles to simulate different stages of opening. The strong pressure fluctuations at approximately 500 Hz were only experimentally observed for door angles between 5.0$^\circ$ and 7.5$^\circ$ but were absent at much smaller and larger angles. Additionally, several cavity depths were tested, which demonstrated that a shallower cavity delayed the onset of fluctuations until a higher free-stream Reynolds number was reached. The combination of experimental and numerical results provides valuable initial data on the aerodynamic performance of a hypersonic forward-facing door over a cavity.
This paper examines two-dimensional liquid curtains ejected from a narrow horizontal outlet at an angle to the vertical. Curtains are characterised by the Froude number ${\textit{Fr}}=U/ ( gH ) ^{1/2}$, Reynolds number ${\textit{Re}}=UH/\nu$ and Weber number ${\textit{We}}=\rho U^{2}H/\sigma$, where $U$ is the ejection velocity, $g$ the gravity, $H$ the outlet’s half-width, $\nu$ the kinematic viscosity and $\sigma$ the surface tension. It is assumed that ${\textit{Fr}}\gg 1$ (so that the radius of the curtain’s curvature due to gravity exceeds $H$), ${\textit{Re}}\ll 1$ (viscosity is strong) and ${\textit{We}}\sim 1$ (surface tension is on par with inertia). It is shown that steady oblique curtains exist only subject to a constraint of the form ${\textit{We}}\gt f({\textit{Fr}}^{2}{\textit{Re}})$, which is more restrictive than the previously known constraint ${\textit{We}}\gt 1$. Thus, sufficiently strong viscosity and/or surface tension eliminate the steady regime and make the curtain evolve – typically, rotate around the outlet, eventually producing the teapot effect.
We finally come to the question of why the black hole horizon is said to allow only one-way traffic. When viewed from the Kruskal coordinates, suitable for freely falling observers, the horizon consists of several distinct causal components. The future event horizon is the one we usually refer to when describing the one-way nature of the black hole geometry; its “past” cousin allows the opposite flow of trajectories but is often an artifact of the “eternal” geometry. We derive and display Penrose diagrams for many of the solutions accumulated so far and offer cautionary tales on causal structures and singularities.