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This chapter introduces readers to the lived experience of an anxious student, providing a human lens through which to explore mathematics anxiety – a global, multi-dimensional phenomenon that has evolved over more than seventy years. It offers foundational definitions and situates mathematics anxiety within the context of non-specialist university students, particularly those encountering barriers to engaging with statistics and quantitative research methods. While the discussion is especially relevant to students in the social sciences, the issues addressed also resonate with learners in STEM disciplines. The chapter sets the stage for a pedagogical intervention designed to moderate anxiety and enhance learning, previewing its implementation and key highlights. It concludes with an overview of the book’s structure, guiding readers through themes of inclusive education and emotionally intelligent teaching practices.
Chapter 3 offers an initial empirical assessment of the book’s main argument. It begins by identifying the partisan Left and Right in postcommunist Europe and analyzing patterns of their programmatic positions and ballot box results. The findings support the theoretical expectation that the long-term economic stances and electoral performance of the Left, but not of the Right, are two mutually related legacies of postcommunist junctures. Next, having developed a set of variables to compare long- and short-term electoral effects on the Left, I show that the former are the stronger predictor of illiberal electoral outcomes. The chapter closes with a discussion of why rival arguments prioritizing economic, political, and cultural demand, institutional and leadership supply, and international factors fail to adequately explain the variation identified in book’s opening chapter. This point is empirically reinforced in Appendix D, where I test the plausibility of the postcommunist juncture theory vis-à-vis rival hypotheses by using an original dataset and standard statistical methods for cross-sectional and time series data. The results show that the long-term regularities rooted in postcommunist junctures explain illiberal electoral outcomes in the most significant and consistent way.
The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted significant mental health impacts worldwide, with a major concern in the literature being its potential effect on suicide rates. Brazil, one of the countries most severely affected by the pandemic, still lacks clear evidence regarding the consequences of the crisis on self-inflicted deaths. This paper aims to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide rates in Brazil.
Methods
We employed an interrupted time series design with seasonal adjustments to estimate changes in suicide rates per 100,000 population. The analysis was based on deaths from all forms of self-inflicted injury, as classified by the International Classification of Diseases. We estimated trends for the total population, stratified by sex and administrative region.
Results
Suicide rates increased significantly before the pandemic (β₁ = 0.00148, p < 0.001). No significant change in trend was observed after the onset of the pandemic at the national level (β₃ = 0.00092, p > 0.05). Among men, both the pre-pandemic trend (β₁ = 0.00236, p < 0.001) and the post-pandemic increase (β₃ = 0.00155, p < 0.05) were significant. For women, the pre-pandemic trend was modest (β₁ = 0.00065, p < 0.001), and the post-pandemic slope was not significant (β₃ = 0.00033, p = 0.10). Regionally, the Central-West (β₃ = 0.00217, p < 0.01) and North (β₃ = 0.00186, p < 0.05) experienced significant post-pandemic increases, while the Southeast (β₃ = 0.00087, p > 0.05) and South (β₃ = −0.00034, p > 0.05) showed no significant changes. Seasonal effects revealed consistent mid-year declines across all groups and regions.
Conclusions
The COVID-19 pandemic did not produce a statistically significant shift in national suicide trends but coincided with the persistence of pre-existing upward patterns in specific demographic and regional contexts. These findings underscore the need for targeted and region-specific suicide prevention strategies.
This chapter examines how the rhetoric of achievement books is crafted through images and numbers as well as words. I argue that these media have two purposes. On one hand, they act as symbolic fragments of the nation, constituted by a recognisable Nasser-era iconography. Peasants and workers, students and soldiers, factories and machines, land and buildings – all these elements are marshalled to depict a cohesive national mosaic. On the other hand, each photograph and statistic acts as an index of the state’s achievements; the picture and the number become, on their own, an inarguable demonstration of the state’s ability to achieve. After describing the typical content of Nasserist iconography, the chapter moves to analyse it in relation to the master narratives of industrial modernisation and revolutionary responsibility. The chapter concludes with an analysis of what images exclude, what lies beyond their frame, and how these exclusions are telling about what constitutes ‘the state’ under Nasser. Governmental images and numbers are not a peripheral epiphenomenon to Nasser-era politics, but they are symbolically and indexically central to the state’s construction.
The chapter analyses how the climate change action plan developed by the European Central Bank (ECB) as part of its monetary policy strategy review in 2020-2021 is aligned with the ECB’s mandate set out in the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union and the Treaty on European Union. The Treaties require the ECB to integrate climate change considerations into its monetary policy and to contribute to the EU’s objectives regarding climate change, as established by Regulation (EU) 2021/1119, the European Climate Law. However, there are also legal limits on the action the ECB can take in this field. The chapter examines the key measures proposed as part of the plan from a legal perspective, including measures related to macroeconomic forecasts and models, the collection of statistical information for climate change risk analysis, the enhancement of risk assessment capabilities, asset purchase programmes, and possible changes to the collateral framework. It also considers the questions regarding the ECB’s democratic legitimacy and accountability that arise in this context.
Science is invariably based on some sort of data collection and further treatment of the data gathered. Data can come from pure observations, from structured observations (‘natural experiments’) or from experiments. The central importance of models in science is mentioned. It is discussed how the choice of statistics reflects the philosophy of science adopted by the scientist. Different research programmes use different statistics, in particular, depending on when and how they deal with variation. The relationship between falsificationism and the rejection of null hypotheses as a workaround for the Duhem-Quine thesis is discussed, as well as the role of significance thresholds and their associated problems. It is argued that predicted results are more reliable than chance findings. The pros and cons of having alternative hypotheses are discussed, and a short introduction to Bayesian statistics as an alternative to frequentist approaches is given. Systematic reviews and metaanalyses of data from several studies are introduced, and an example is given on how different types of evidence from many studies are combined to form the current consensus of rational opinion regarding a particular hypothesis.
Levinson 2013 (L13) argues against the idea that ‘recursion, and especially recursive center embedding, might be the core domain-specific property of language’ (p. 159), citing crosslinguistic grammatical data and specific corpus studies. L13 offers an alternative: language inherits its recursive properties ‘from the action domain’ (p. 159). We argue that L13's claims are at best unwarranted and can in many instances be shown to be false. L13's reasoning is similarly flawed— in particular, the presumption that center-embedding can stand proxy for embedding (and clausal embedding can stand proxy for recursion). Thus, no support remains for its conclusions. Furthermore, though these conclusions are pitched as relevant to specific claims that have been published about the role of syntactic recursion, L13 misrepresents these claims. Consequently, even an empirically supported, better-reasoned version of L13 would not bear on the questions it claims to address.
Build a firm foundation for studying statistical modelling, data science, and machine learning with this practical introduction to statistics, written with chemical engineers in mind. It introduces a data–model–decision approach to applying statistical methods to real-world chemical engineering challenges, establishes links between statistics, probability, linear algebra, calculus, and optimization, and covers classical and modern topics such as uncertainty quantification, risk modelling, and decision-making under uncertainty. Over 100 worked examples using Matlab and Python demonstrate how to apply theory to practice, with over 70 end-of-chapter problems to reinforce student learning, and key topics are introduced using a modular structure, which supports learning at a range of paces and levels. Requiring only a basic understanding of calculus and linear algebra, this textbook is the ideal introduction for undergraduate students in chemical engineering, and a valuable preparatory text for advanced courses in data science and machine learning with chemical engineering applications.
This study aimed to investigate whether seasonal epistaxis patterns differ between cases manageable in emergency departments versus those requiring hospital admission and to examine weather parameter correlations by severity category.
Methods
A retrospective severity-stratified analysis of 2,201 epistaxis presentations across two UK hospitals (January 2023–December 2024) with comprehensive weather correlation analysis was used.
Results
Emergency department cases (1,762 presentations, 80.1 per cent) peaked in winter (475 cases, 27.0 per cent), while hospital admissions (439 cases, 19.9 per cent) peaked in spring (130 cases, 29.6 per cent). A critical 10°C temperature threshold effectively separated severity categories with high predictive accuracy.
Conclusion
Epistaxis demonstrates opposing seasonal patterns by clinical severity with distinct weather correlation profiles. Emergency departments should prepare for winter volume surges during cold, humid periods, whilst specialist ENT services require enhanced spring capacity during moderate temperature conditions.
This article proposes a mixed-method approach to examine historical censuses with regard to race. It does so by exploring various kinds of demographic records from nineteenth-century Buenos Aires in order to test the conventional hypothesis of a significant census underenumeration of the city’s population of African descent. Starting from the overall progression of census results, the article is divided into three parts. The first of these deals with potential under-coverage, the second with the possibility of classificatory changes, and the third with vital statistics, largely derived from parish books. With special attention to two censuses of the 1850s, it concludes that Buenos Aires’s Afro-descendant population likely did suffer serious demographic decline between 1840 and 1890.
This chapter introduces the field and the scope of research and the fundamental terminology. The basic objective of this monograph is primary onomatopoeia defined as imagic icons of the signified objects; prototypically, they are underived and uninflected monemes. The Introduction maps the state of the art in onomatopoeia research, mainly based on a questionnaire-based survey among language experts covering 124 languages of the world. It accounts for the method of language sampling. Since data collection can be significantly affected by the status of the sample languages, this section also provides their classification according to the Expanded Graded Intergenerational Disruption Scale. This chapter also provides an overview of resources available for research in this field with a focus on the availability of dictionaries and corpora that identify the class of onomatopoeia. Significant attention is given to the categorization of sounds, an aspect often overlooked in onomatopoeia studies. This categorization is crucial for mapping the sound sources and sound events that onomatopoeias represent across the sampled languages.
In the 1940s and 1950s, the concepts of surplus labor, disguised unemployment, and underemployment emerged as key tools for thinking about economic development in the emerging “Third World.” This article examines how these concepts were developed and debated in Egypt, a country that was at the forefront of postcolonial planning efforts internationally. To this end, the article examines the statistical construction of the “labor problem” and the way it shaped competing visions of economic development among national, colonial, and international actors. Using a variety of sources—including Egyptian government archives, documents from the British Foreign Office, and the International Labour Organization—the article contributes to the global history of development and quantification, and contributes to the scholarship on Nasserism in Egypt.
Sums of the ratings that judges assign to wines are a near universal method of determining the winners and losers of wine competitions. Sums are easy to calculate and easy to communicate, but seven flaws make sums of ratings a perilous guide to relative quality or preference. Stars & Bars combinatorics show that the same sum can be the result of billions of compositions of ratings and that those compositions, for the same sum, can contain dispersion that ranges from universal consensus to apparent randomness to polar disagreement. Order preference models can address both order and dispersion, and an example using a Plackett–Luce model yields maximum likelihood estimates of top-choice probabilities that are a defensible guide to relative quality or preference.
Statistics were the lens through which the Bank viewed the global economy. Although the quantification of economic phenomena had many prewar precedents, the unresolved problems stemming from the First World War led to its reinvention. The Bank originally employed economists, including Oliver M.W. Sprague and Walter W. Stewart, to develop its in-house statistical capabilities. Subsequent developments included the creation of a research division, employment of trained staff members, and publication of a monthly report. With the onset of the British slump and the contentious debates on the (Macmillan) Committee on Finance and Industry, experts gained new opportunities to influence economic policy. Through its research, the Bank of England was able to establish its reputation as an intellectual authority.
This chapter draws on the original cross-national dataset of counterrevolutions to examine global patterns and historical trends in counterrevolutionary emergence and success. It begins with a series of statistical analyses that support core elements of the theory. Counterrevolutions are much less likely to topple radical-violent revolutions than moderate-unarmed ones – a finding that holds across two different measures of these types. Subsequent analyses shed light on the mechanisms behind this relationship: loyal armies and powerful foreign sponsors are key to defeating counterrevolution, whereas robust parties matter less. Next, the chapter shows that counterrevolutions are most likely to emerge following revolutions with medium levels of violence, which leave the old regime with both the capacity and interest to launch a challenge. Further, there is little support for four alternative explanations, particularly when it comes to counterrevolutionary success. Next, the chapter evaluates how key events during the post-revolutionary transition (like land reforms and elections) affect the likelihood of counterrevolution. It concludes with an exploration of the decline in counterrevolution since 1900 (followed by an uptick in the last decade), which it traces to a combination of the changing nature of revolution and shifts in the distribution of global power.
This chapter analyzes the popular dimensions of Egypt’s 2013 counterrevolution, using an original dataset of protests during the post-revolutionary transition. It shows that Egypt’s revolutionaries were unable to consolidate the social support of the revolution, and that this failure allowed counterrevolutionaries to channel broad disaffections with revolutionary rule into a popular movement for restoration. The dataset covers the final eighteen months of the transition and includes approximately 7,500 contentious events sourced from the major Arabic-language newspaper Al-Masry Al-Youm. These data reveal, first, the extent to which social mobilization persisted after the end of the eighteen-day uprising. The transition period was awash with discontent and unrest, much of it over nonpolitical issues like the deterioration of the economy, infrastructure problems, and unmet labor demands. Second, statistical analyses show that this discontent came to be directed against Mohamed Morsi’s government. The earliest and most persistent anti-Morsi protests emerged in places where the population had long been highly mobilized over socio-economic grievances. Later, they also began to emerge in places with large numbers of old regime supporters. Ultimately, these two groups – discontented Egyptians and committed counterrevolutionaries – came together to provide the social base for the movement that swept the military back to power.
This article examines the construction of statistics on labor emigration to France and the attempt of the Algerian state to integrate this emigration into development planning after independence. It draws on extensive primary sources in France, Algeria, and Switzerland, including colonial records, the ministries and offices of independent Algeria, international organizations and academic studies. To trace colonial legacies, it first considers the colonial expertise of the 1950s before turning to the Algerian emigration planning projects in the 1960s. Extending the work of James Scott and Timothy Mitchell, it argues that Algerian planners both recognized the biases embedded in colonial representations of migration, and sought to develop a form of statistical modernity that was critical and reflexive. They engaged in careful assessments of available data while simultaneously valuing it as a tool for action. In particular, critiques and reflections within the Algerian Ministry of Labor on the 1969 emigration planning model point to the need for a nuanced understanding of statistical modernity. Rather than perpetuating a colonial gaze on society, the introduction of this model primarily sought to address the limited informational capacities of the independent state. Demographic statistics thus became the main instrument for regulating emigration, but they were valued out of pragmatism rather than ideology. Given the limitations of other socio-economic indicators, such as unemployment rate, population statistics were among the few reliable sources available to allocate exit permits fairly across the regions of origin of prospective emigrants.
We introduce basic principles of the statistical analysis of hemodynamic imaging data, including concepts like the General Linear Model, data cleaning, efficiency, parametric hypothesis testing, correction for multiple comparisons, first- and second-level analyses, region of interest analysis, double dipping, and the issue of statistical inference with reference to forward and reverse inferences.
Using Côte d’Ivoire as a case study, this article examines how the abolition of forced labor in the French colonies of Africa in 1946 put statistics at the heart of tensions between the colonial administration, European planters, and African planters. The first section suggests that figures were instrumentalized to serve competing group interests: on one side, those of European planters eager to show the iniquity of the measure to abolish forced labor, which undermined their economic activities due to the resulting labor shortages; on the other side, those of Ivorian planters, who produced figures to argue for the rights of workers and to convince the colonial administration of the need to move toward a system of freedom of labor. The article thus puts the focus on a blind spot in the academic literature, namely, the role of African agency in the production of figures and their capacity to resist colonial domination. It also examines how West African workers managed to circumvent the colonial recruiting system that had been set up by European planters in the form of the Syndicat interprofessionnel d’acheminement de la main-d’œuvre (Interprofessional union for the transport of labor, or SIAMO). It is this in particular that leads me to question the data produced by SIAMO, which attempted to direct migrant workers toward European farms in the south from 1950 onward.
This chapter provides an end-to-end introduction to statistics; this highlights how statistics can be used to develop models from data, to quantify the uncertainty of such models, and to make decisions under uncertainty. The chapter also discusses how random variables are the key modeling paradigm that is used in statistics to characterize and quantify uncertainty and risk.