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This chapter posits that risk assessment necessary as a condition precedent to settlement requires evidentiary transparency as to all stakeholders, including the arbitral tribunal. Moreover, this chapter discusses and asserts that settlement and mediation techniques are futile absent a thorough understanding of the underlying evidence, and objective procedural methodologies governing admissibility, relevance, materiality, and weight of the evidence. Thus, the chapter analyzes features and possible amendments to the rules of the leading ICA institutional administrative bodies that would enhance the predictive value of determinations based on existing evidence. Consequently, the evidential framework of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce (SCC), the Singapore International Arbitration Centre (SIAC), the International Centre for Dispute Resolution (ICDR), and the German Arbitration Institute (DIS) rules are analyzed.
Assembling and evaluating warrant for your claims involves giving reasons why these claims might be true or false. Such reasons may be understood as consisting of conjunctions of factual and relevance claims which may be adduced in favour of the claims in question. These claims themselves may in turn be warranted by further such conjunctions, and so on through indefinite higher ‘levels’ of evidence. We show how to structure relevant claims into an evidence role-map. We set out how to apply this to indirect local evidence, referencing a situation-specific causal equation model of each causal step. By reference to our pluralistic account of causation, we identify eight categories of evidence for each step. We introduce a notation for this approach and illustrate it using the Barbados sugar-sweetened beverage tax example, describing its use in post-hoc evaluation and ex ante prediction.
Warrant for singular causal claims can be ‘local’, comprising claims about features and happenings in the setting the claim concerns, or ‘from afar’, comprising claims about other settings. It may also be ‘direct’, concerning whether the claim itself is true, or indirect concerning facts that bear upon whether the claim is true. Evidence claims warranting claims of all these sorts should be understood as composed of conjunctions of factual claims and relevance claims. Such claims may be compiled into ‘evidence trees’ in which each claim is warranted (as practical and required) with further conjunctions of claims at higher ‘levels’ of evidence. This may be represented diagrammatically and serves to structure the evidence to show the roles which each piece of evidence plays, and the relation between these roles. Our primary focus is on indirect local warrant.
This chapter is about the admissibility of evidence in court as opposed to the adducing of evidence in court. This difference is significant. Even if the potential admission of evidence satisfies procedural requirements, the court may exclude it on the basis that it falls within one or more of the exclusionary rules of evidence, and not within an exception to those rules.
The fundamental rule in evidence law is that evidence that is relevant is admissible, unless it is excluded by one of the rules of exclusion. Where the evidence is irrelevant, it is inadmissible, and there are no rules of inclusion. Therefore, relevance is the first hurdle in considering whether an item of evidence is to be admitted in court.
To be admissible, evidence must be relevant to a fact in issue. In other words, the item of evidence must be able to affect the assessment of the probability that the fact in issue exists. Facts in issue are determined by reference to the substantive law. The material or principal facts, often referred to as the ‘ultimate issues’, ‘essential allegations’ or ‘material allegations’, are what must be proven.
The succession of economic and financial crises, the migration crisis, and, of course, Brexit have raised many questions about the future of the European Union. Such crises present challenges for teaching and learning European Studies. This article discusses the question how to maintain a relevant study programme while taking into account ever-changing societal developments. Based on a survey conducted among students of a Bachelor in European Studies, and a subsequent focus group discussion, we look at programme relevance and programme capacity to deal with societal change in the context of a problem-based learning environment. Our study reveals that problem-based learning, when applied consistently and correctly, is a good educational approach to ensure that a study programme is relevant and capable of capturing societal change. At the same time, students seem to prefer a more guided version of problem-based learning, which presents challenges concerning its possible contribution to teaching and learning in times of crises. While we discuss the situation in one specific BA programme, we will do so in light of general challenges in the fields of European Studies, International Relations, and Politics.
‘Is political science out of step with the world?’ This question, raised by John E. Trent in a recent issue, is part of a recurring debate about the development of our discipline. In that article, and in a subsequent book with his colleague Michael Stein, John Trent blames adherents of the ‘scientific method’ for political science’s growing irrelevance. We challenge this claim by arguing that Trent falls back on outdated polarities between ‘objective and normative’, and ‘explanation and interpretation’, in order to justify his allegation. We argue for the need to review our methods continuously, rather than dig up a fruitless and biased division between qualitative and quantitative approaches.
This paper explores what makes relevance difficult to deliver. Researchers can be victims of the play of politics in policy settings and organizational blockages limit the numbers of academics that seek to achieve relevance. In addition the scholarly arguments for relevance are underdeveloped leaving scope for sustained doubts about the project. Crucially political science lacks a design arm and as a result it is deficient in the intellectual foundations needed to proffer solutions to political problems.
This paper arises from the empirical evidence about trends, issues and perspectives in political science to be found in the International Political Science Association's (IPSA) Research Committee 33 book series entitled – The World of Political Science: Development of the Discipline and the papers presented at the 2008 Montreal Conference of the IPSA on New Theoretical and Regional Perspectives on International Political Science. One of the issues raised by this analysis of the discipline's strengths and weaknesses is the question of whether political science is relevant to the outside world, and if not why not? It is evident to the naked eye that in comparison with, say, economists (President Obama has three advisory councils), political science is of relatively little interest to policymakers, the media and the public. We have to ask whether political science is out of step with the world, and if so what might be done about it?
The paper deals with a couple of speculations by John E. Trent with respect to the state and impact of contemporary political science. It particularly takes issue with the Trent claim that political science must become more relevant and instead emphasizes the need for an independent science system. Furthermore, it accepts the notion that there is a problem with respect to overspecialization but regards this as a necessity if science and research want to move ahead. The Trent argument about schisms in political science theorizing and research methodology must be taken seriously, but can and should be counteracted by the good will of scholars to seek regular intellectual exchanges also in fields where controversy rages. Finally, it is argued in the paper that the Trent worldview is very much a North American one that should be balanced by looking also at other political science communities around the world.
While the relevance of political science is often evaluated with respect to its scholarly impact, evaluations of the teaching impact are rare. This paper offers a step towards strengthening the societal relevance of a political science degree. We treat the societal relevance of political science as a matter of the (non-)academic career preparation and civic education of its graduates. We are therefore interested in the career paths and individual learning outcomes of Austrian political science graduates. Data from the Graduate Monitoring and semi-structured interviews show that most graduates work outside of academia, moreover, as our results show, many graduates state that they had to acquire additional skills for their professional careers. Consequently, future curricula might consider a stronger focus on non-academic career preparation. At the same time, however, graduates highly value the civic dimension of the programme and the impact it had on their political agency.
Political science has for some time been afflicted with an existential and empirical angst concerning impact and relevance. This is by no means a new or unique disciplinary pathology, but it is one that has intensified in recent years. The reasons for this intensification have been explored in a burgeoning literature on ‘the tyranny of impact’. The central argument of this article is that a focus on the ‘relevance gap’ within political science, and vis-à-vis the social sciences more generally, risks failing to comprehend the emergence of a far broader and multifaceted ‘expectations gap’. The core argument and contribution of this article is that the future of political science will depend on the politics and management of the ‘expectations gap’ that has emerged. Put slightly differently, the study of politics needs to have a sharper grasp of the politics of its own discipline and the importance of framing, positioning, connecting vis-à-vis the broader social context.
Morgan’s legacy was twofold: his development of processes for handling crises and his recruitment of people during crises who would live on long after he died to influence the practice of last resort lending specifically and central banking more generally.
In the digital economy, quality is increasingly becoming the predominant variable of competition. Markets are expected to seek out that state of affairs in which product quality rather than efficiency is maximized. But an effective conceptual resolution of what constitutes product quality is more complex and elusive than previously thought, and there has been a widespread repudiation of the notion that dominant online platforms can be held accountable for failing to deliver something that a single descriptive standard would command them to produce. Furthermore, microeconomic theory provides little guidance for evaluating how adjustments in the level of competition in a market have a bearing on product quality. This chapter suggests that claims relating to product quality can best be resolved by underscoring loyalty. Product quality, viewed from this perspective, provides a framework for assessing the behavior of digital platforms while at the same time legitimizing the manner in which zero-price markets operate. The issue is most prominent with regard to search engine rankings, privacy, and the sale of goods in online marketplaces.
This concluding chapter highlights the important contributions that this volume makes in featuring the diversity of forms of leadership in the ancient world and in illustrating how ancient people were asking questions about leadership that we should be asking more often today. It further argues that future research on ancient leadership should help readers to draw connections among the different forms of leadership in the ancient world, especially those readers who are not expert in ancient studies, and also to draw lessons that can help us better lead and better select our leaders. Ancient leadership studies need to play a vital role in helping us understand contemporary leadership as a moral, creative and collaborative art that we can all learn from one another.
We in this paper employ a penalized moment selection procedure to identify valid and relevant moments for estimating and testing forecast rationality within the flexible loss framework proposed by Elliott et al. (2005). We motivate the selection of moments in a high-dimensional setting, outlining the fundamental mechanism of the penalized moment selection procedure and demonstrating its implementation in the context of forecast rationality, particularly in the presence of potentially invalid moment conditions. The selection consistency and asymptotic normality are established under conditions specifically tailored to economic forecasting. Through a series of Monte Carlo simulations, we evaluate the finite sample performance of penalized moment estimation in utilizing available instrument information effectively within both estimation and testing procedures. Additionally, we present an empirical analysis using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia to illustrate the practical utility of the suggested methodology. The results indicate that the proposed post-selection estimator for forecaster’s attitude performs comparably to the oracle estimator by efficiently incorporating available information. The power of rationality and symmetry tests leveraging penalized moment estimation is substantially enhanced by minimizing the impact of uninformative instruments. For practitioners assessing the rationality of externally generated forecasts, such as those in the Greenbook, the proposed penalized moment selection procedure could offer a robust approach to achieve more efficient estimation outcomes.
This study examined the capacity of ChatGPT-4 to assess L2 writing in an accurate, specific, and relevant way. Based on 35 argumentative essays written by upper-intermediate L2 writers in higher education, we evaluated ChatGPT-4’s assessment capacity across four L2 writing dimensions: (1) Task Response, (2) Coherence and Cohesion, (3) Lexical Resource, and (4) Grammatical Range and Accuracy. The main findings were (a) ChatGPT-4 was exceptionally accurate in identifying the issues across the four dimensions; (b) ChatGPT-4 demonstrated more variability in feedback specificity, with more specific feedback in Grammatical Range and Accuracy and Lexical Resource, but more general feedback in Task Response and Coherence and Cohesion; and (c) ChatGPT-4’s feedback was highly relevant to the criteria in the Task Response and Coherence and Cohesion dimensions, but it occasionally misclassified errors in the Grammatical Range and Accuracy and Lexical Resource dimensions. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of ChatGPT-4 as an assessment tool, informing future research and practical applications in L2 writing assessment.
Children are known to derive more implicatures when the required alternative is made salient through contrast or when it is made contextually relevant through a story or a Question Under Discussion. We investigated the exclusivity implicature of three disjunctions (sau “or”, sau… sau, and fie…fie “either…or”) in child Romanian, an understudied language in the previous literature. Three experiments reveal that the mere presence of the stronger alternative, that is, simply hearing unrelated conjunctive statements in the course of the experiment, is not enough to boost implicatures. Rather, implicatures increase as a result of both access to alternatives and contextual relevance (expressed through conjunctive questions such as Did the hen push the train and the boat?). Interestingly, the boost in implicatures was observed only for sau-based disjunctions, not for fie…fie, which we conjecture may be due to children treating the latter as ambiguous between disjunction and conjunction.
The family of relevant logics can be faceted by a hierarchy of increasingly fine-grained variable sharing properties—requiring that in valid entailments $A\to B$, some atom must appear in both A and B with some additional condition (e.g., with the same sign or nested within the same number of conditionals). In this paper, we consider an incredibly strong variable sharing property of lericone relevance that takes into account the path of negations and conditionals in which an atom appears in the parse trees of the antecedent and consequent. We show that this property of lericone relevance holds of the relevant logic $\mathbf {BM}$ (and that a related property of faithful lericone relevance holds of $\mathbf {B}$) and characterize the largest fragments of classical logic with these properties. Along the way, we consider the consequences for lericone relevance for the theory of subject-matter, for Logan’s notion of hyperformalism, and for the very definition of a relevant logic itself.
This chapter discusses different types of evidence that conversation analysts use to ground their claims about social action. We begin by reviewing the epistemological perspective of CA, which demands that evidence reflect participants’ orientations; as a critical part of understanding the terms ‘participant orientation’ and ‘relevance,’ here we also discuss two ways in which CA’s position and emphasis on them are commonly misunderstood. The bulk of this chapter then reviews and illustrates a range of types of participant-orientation evidence. We organize our presentation of types of evidence roughly by sequential position vis-à-vis the focal action about which the analyst is making claims, including evidence to be found in: (i) next-turn, (ii) same-turn (e.g., same-TCU self-repair, accounts), (iii) prior turn or sequence, (iv) third turn/position (e.g., repair after next turn, courses of action/activity), (v) fourth turn/position, and (vi) more distal positions. We also discuss other forms of evidence that are not necessarily defined by sequential position, including: (i) third-party conduct, (ii) reported conduct, (iii) deviant cases, and (iv) distributional evidence. We conclude by offering some brief reflections on bringing different types and positions of evidence together toward the construction of an argument.
Most research into the impacts of climate change concentrates on what would happen at low degrees of change. We know a great deal about best-case scenarios. Thanks to wilful ignorance among policymakers, and the cultural preferences of scientists, worst-case scenarios are much less considered. We know the least about what matters most.