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We describe the use of risk assessment/risk management decision analytic approaches to frame and focus the goal of water security by focussing on identification of how health data can be used to inform complex risk decisions for water security with three case studies. The first case study is on arsenic in water and soil in South America and associated health risks. The second is on pesticide use in sensitive areas in Brazil’s Amazonian agricultural frontier and risk of loss of biodiversity. The third case study is on nitrate use in agriculture featuring integrated management approaches used in Germany. The case studies were chosen to illustrate global issues of water security. Each case study is described using the risk assessment framework from the Word Health Organization to describe risk and risk management in terms of human and ecological health. These examples illustrate the critical international challenges in water security that impact food production, human health, biodiversity and ecosystem wellbeing.
One of the most pressing problems to which the world community will soon be exposed is provision of sufficient food for the global population. Factors impeding global food security are the expected climate change and the growing world population.
If the high losses in the food chain, as well as the losses in agricultural production, can be reduced, then the pressure on an expansion of food production can be reduced.
The food engineering community has developed solutions to reduce losses and to exploit unconventional resources to produce food and feed. The utilization of solar energy, for example, allows for the application of electrical-energy-demanding processes even in poorly developed areas. Another example is the conversion of cellulose, hemicelluloses and lignin into edible products. The efficiency of food processing will also be improved by new packaging and distribution systems as well as the integration of IT into processing and the exploitation of engineeringomics.
Asia’s sustainability challenges range from greenhouse gas emissions to emerging infectious diseases and from biodiversity loss to societal ageing. These are all “wicked problems”: problems that defy close definition, have multiple causes and unforeseeable consequences, affect many stakeholders, and lack suitable governance structures. Research that addresses such problems therefore cannot remain confined to specific disciplines, but needs to adopt a trans-disciplinary approach that is interdisciplinary and integrates diverse research fields (across the natural and social sciences, humanities, health and engineering) around shared and synthetic research questions. There is a need to develop an Asian community of research, practice and policy that contributes to solving problems through co-designed and co-produced research to catalyze the creation of an “Asian environmental community” for the sustainable future of Asia.
Measuring sea level rise and understanding its causes have improved in recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing observations have become available. Sea level is presently rising at a sustained rate and will continue in the future decades because of expected increased global warming, thereby affecting a large number of the world’s largest coastal cities. Sea level observations are treated as arising from three primary components: ocean thermal expansion, land ice melt, and land water storage changes. By closing the sea level budget based on comparisons between observed sea level change and the sum of contributions from the various components, it is possible to estimate sea level rise for the end of the twenty-first century
World population grows most rapidly in developing countries, leading to pressure on the environment as resources and services are being stretched to meet demand, particularly in urban centres. Population movement between rural and urban environments, on the one hand, and the urban food systems and the rural–urban supply chain, on the other, impact the food and nutrition security of a given urban community. Hence, city authorities should plan and monitor urban development with a view to ensuring adequate availability and accessibility to food for all.
The global state of malnutrition indicates that many countries have serious levels of both undernutrition and overnutrition, the so-called double burden of malnutrition. It is known that malnutrition contributes to global disease as well as loss in productivity, and therefore in order to attain sustainable development countries must improve the nutrition of their people. This challenge was taken up by world leaders at the 2012 UN Conference on Sustainable Development: Rio+20, where the seventeen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were proposed. It has been estimated that at least twelve of the seventeen SDGs have indicators relevant to nutrition.
Changes in the palaeoenvironment are investigated in two representative Frasnian sections of the NW Algerian Sahara, integrating sedimentology and magnetic susceptibility (MS). The Ben Zireg section is characterized by condensed and ferruginous calcareous deposits; in the South Marhouma section the sedimentation rate is high, dominated by muddy nodular limestones with several hypoxic shale intervals. In both sections, sediments were mostly emplaced on pelagic outer ramps below the limit of storm wave-base, evolving through time from proximal to distal setting. Investigations of the temporal evolution of facies and MS data permit a first estimate of the local sea-level trends in NW Algeria. These trends match the overall long-term rise of sea level recognized worldwide from Frasnian Zone 5 upwards. Noteable positive excursions of the sea-level curve related to the semichatovae transgression, as well as to the late Frasnian transgression prior to the late Kellwasser event, can be established in this area. Although the sharp regression of sea level at the upper Kellwasser level can be confirmed from our data, no particular trend is depicted at the transition of conodont zones (Frasnian Zones 12–13) where the presence of the lower Kellwasser level has not yet been clearly recognized.
Geography straddles the social and natural sciences and thus can explore – and help resolve – "wicked’ problems" that characterise the increasingly challenging relationship between humans and the environment. The concept of a dynamic but sustainable Earth system that enables human development is central to the Future Earth initiative. A geographical perspective and the ‘joined-up’ thinking that it engenders constitute one approach that can help develop a more robust understanding of the range of global, regional and local environment and development problems. Geography as a science is critical to the understanding of the processes, patterns and trajectories of our Future Earth. Holistic and integrated approaches, characteristic of both ‘traditional’ and modern geographic research, offer important pointers towards the achievement of a more sustainable global future
Seafood, whether from fisheries or aquaculture, has been an important food source for millennia and appearslikely to continue to be so for many decades to come. Traditional sources of seafood are under increasing pressure as the Anthropocene generates growing pressure on the world’s oceans. Marine ecosystems are feeling the direct pressure of fisheries and aquaculture, as well as the effects of pollution, eutrophication, coastal development, ocean acidification, climate change, extreme events, pathogens and the growing number and magnitude of marine industries – shipping, tourism, mining and energy generation. Nevertheless, there is hope. Both model based and empirical studies are showing sustainable options can be found. It is clear that integrated system-level understanding will be an important part of sustainable use of future ocean resources. As we navigate a changing ocean it is clear that human ingenuity will also be key to future sustainability and food security.
Geothermal direct heat use exists in eighty-two countries, with a total, in 2014, of 590 PJ, achieved with an installed capacity of 70 GWth. The majority of production (55.3%) is by geothermal heat pump (GHP) systems, which constitute the only booming geothermal sector – their average annual growth rate amounts to 20% over the period 1995–2014. This trend is expected to continue in the future, albeit at a somewhat lower rate. The GHP systems for space heating and cooling rely on shallow (<400-m depth) resources.
For power generation, deep hydrothermal resources are used. The total installed capacity in twenty-two countries in 2016 was 13.3 GWe, which provides 75 TWh, or about 0.3%, of total electricity production. The average growth rate of geothermal electricity over the years 1985–2015 was almost constant and amounted to 4% annually.
Acceleration of future geothermal electricity production can only be achieved by developing petrothermal resources, though other options also exist.
The principal unknown is how the ocean circulation will change on centennial time scales as a result of changes in radiative forcing associated with the increase in atmospheric CO2 and global warming. For centennial and longer time scale variability, abrupt climate changes that have occurred during the last 100,000 years and about the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum 21,000 years ago to the present provide instruction. For both the abrupt changes known as Dansgaard–Oeschager warm events and Heinrich cold events and for the transition from glacial climate to the present mild climate, changes in the ocean circulation, particularly in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, are implicated as central to these climate shifts: the principal unknown is what causes the sudden changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, changes that are not found in present coupled climate models.
Africa has significant agriculture potential. The African Union (AU) Agenda 2063 and high-level AU heads of state decisions on food security and development – the Maputo and Malabo declarations – leverage this potential and underscore increased agriculture productivity as critical to poverty reduction and growth to accelerate socioeconomic transformation. However, efforts cannot be considered in isolation from combating climate change and safeguarding health of ecosystems. Climate change threatens to reduce crop yields by up to 40%. Healthy ecosystems will not be forthcoming with escalating land degradation. Going forward, Africa should synergize its effort at maximizing agriculture productivity with combating climate change and enhancing its ecosystems as called for under the global COP 21 Paris Agreement. Actualizing such an integrated solution will require inclusive partnerships among complementary actors to bridge requisite policy and nonpolicy gaps and foster practical means of implementation.
The concept of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) was developed to tackle three of the greatest challenges of our time: food security, climate change adaptation and reducing emissions. Key research thrusts that need to be strengthened include (1) developing foresight and scenario building in terms of climate change and future development pathways; (2) producing and extending stress-tolerant breeds/varieties and practices, with low emissions; (3) improving and delivering seasonal forecasts and advisories; (4) building safety nets because of the inevitability of extreme events, e.g., index-based insurance and productive social safety nets, where assets are built to mitigate extreme events; (5) Devoting more attention to social differentiation and therefore better targeting of solutions; and (6) working on the barriers to technological uptake and policy change. We also argue that research itself needs to change in order to deliver rapid solutions, and we offer ten principles for effective Agricultural Research for Development (AR4D).
The global development research theme of Future Earth is identified as most closely aligned with global food security and very dependent on supply chains. The four focal challenges most sensitive to the influence of supply chains are identified and described. The concept of supply chains is explained from first principles and expanded to cover the global food supply. The potential effects of climate change on food supply chains are examined. The importance of supply chains in securing key aspects of global food security and providing for the continuing development of good health and well-being are demonstrated and shown to be critical to the success of the broader aims of Future Earth.