We examine whether the heterogeneity of expectations is associated with idiosyncratic variations in experience. Combining household survey data and administrative data from the Netherlands, we find that given market development, households’ expectations about house price changes vary with their individual experience. This association is related to the use of information conveyed by experience, which varies in terms of informativeness, recency, and household sophistication. Finally, we find that individual experience also explains how far house price expectations deviate from realized house prices and that it may affect household behavior. Our findings elucidate the role that individual experience plays in expectation formation.

The 1920–1 recession did not transpire entirely without federal intervention, as commonly believed. Following lending by several Federal Reserve banks, the federally chartered War Finance Corporation (WFC) lent to support exports and shortly after the recession, it lent aggressively to assist banks in agricultural regions, as numerous bank suspensions resulted from the agricultural depression of the early 1920s. Bank suspensions decreased markedly in 1922 to the lowest annual total during the 1921–33 period. This article assesses the impact of WFC lending on bank suspensions, and to what extent the WFC's provision of liquidity helped to resolve the existing difficulties.

National innovation systems (NISs) have been important in the literature since the 1990s for highlighting the institutional performance of economies and promoting economic development. Inclusion in systemic innovation activities is an emerging area of research. However, the definition of inclusion within innovative activities remains unclear and is associated with numerous forms and characteristics depending on the context visited. Our work highlights the conceptual gap that exists around the notion of inclusive innovation by characterising three forms of inclusion in relation to innovation activities. We thus set out, in the form of a typology, three distinct framings which enable us to identify three different levels associated with specific institutional mechanisms and forms of inclusion. This typology makes it possible to identify appropriate innovation policies, depending on how inclusive innovation is characterised (low, medium, and high). It also helps to clarify the inclusive nature of innovation in NIS approaches.

This paper derives career lessons for economists by examining the unusual career of Brian J. Loasby in terms of Loasby’s own key ideas. Loasby’s early career ran into difficulties after he chose to become a postgraduate for lifestyle rather than career reasons, with his insufficiently ambitious reference standards resulting in unduly narrow search for both options and new connections. His eventual success came because of a path-dependent process whereby he developed an organizing framework that was conducive to finding problems and making intellectual connections. It was a process in which making personal connections also had a key role, though some intellectual connections that he earlier failed to make resulted from trusting other people. In the market for contributions to knowledge, his way of branding and positioning his work in relation to management decision-making and the growth of knowledge gave it a wider appeal than would have been the case if he had aligned himself with a particular school of thought or ‘heterodox economics’ in general.

This paper examines the writings of socialist scholars who played a pivotal role in shaping Friedrich Hayek’s perspective in The Road to Serfdom, including William Beveridge, Stuart Chase, Henry Dickinson, Hugh Dalton, Evan Durbin, Oskar Lange, Harold Laski, Abba Lerner, Barbara Wootton, and the contributing authors in Findlay MacKenzie’s Planned Society (1937). Many of these socialist thinkers held two main hypotheses. First, industrial concentration was inevitable under capitalism. Second, they argued, government ownership or control of key economic sectors was necessary to protect democracy from industrial consolidation in the capitalist system and to reduce political opposition to complete state ownership or control over the means of production. Despite sharing Hayek’s concern for socialism’s potential erosion of democratic freedoms, these socialist hypotheses have received much less scholarly attention than Hayek’s The Road to Serfdom. We conclude that Hayek formalized socialist scholars’ fears and developed a well-defined hypothesis that central planning could threaten democratic freedoms.

This paper builds on Hsieh and Klenow’s (2009) model to offer a refined analysis of how input misallocations impact aggregate total factor productivity (TFP). We enhance the original model by relaxing the assumption of uniform input prices and adopting an econometric approach to estimate parameters using firm-level data. Estimation of model parameters and allocation efficiency is based on the system of input demand and the production function. We use an indirect inference approach to estimate the system to avoid maximum likelihood estimation, which often faces convergence issues, when there are numerous constraints. We demonstrate our model using the US firm-level manufacturing panel data from 1975 to 2010. Our final sample contains 55,518 observations. We divide the manufacturing industry into seven major categories. Our findings indicate that between 1975 and 2010, the average productivity growth rate was 2.8% but could have reached 3.2% without misallocation, highlighting the substantial gains possible through better resource allocation.

The Government Savings Bank of Jamaica (GSB) was created post-emancipation in order to serve the poor as a vehicle for precautionary savings and has been viewed as largely successful in this goal, at least after its restructuring in the late 1860s. We investigate this by examining GSB depositor behaviour after income shocks due to hurricanes. To this end, we combine digitized parish-level GSB account information with a hurricane damage index generated from historical storm tracks. Our results show little evidence of a precautionary savings motive by GSB account holders in that while net account balances and deposits drop after hurricanes, withdrawals and the number of accounts closed also fall. Additionally, the net decrease in account holders seems not to be driven by small savers, who are likely to be the poorest. Our findings are thus more in line with the GSB potentially being used to finance non-necessary consumption.

We examine how lenders design contracts to account for transitory and permanent cash flow shocks facing borrowers. We find that volatile transitory cash flow shocks are associated with fewer liquidity covenants, indicating financial flexibility that enables firms to survive liquidity crunches. The opposite is true for volatile permanent cash flow, suggesting that borrowers’ economic fundamentals are important credit risk factors. Subsequent analyses show that borrowers exposed to transitory (permanent) shocks face less (more) severe credit consequences following poor performance. Overall, we show that transitory and permanent cash flow shocks have significant and opposite effects on debt contract covenant design.

Corruption is observed in various processes of human activities, from governance to private life. An important element of preventing corruption is the implementation of codes of ethics, which by the very nature of these codes declare high ethical standards and principles and are consistent with the applicable laws. The effectiveness of codes of ethics in the field of labour relations as a tool for preventing corruption is also reinforced by other auxiliary anti-corruption instruments. The purpose of this article is to determine the role of codes of ethics in shaping corporate culture, outline the importance of ethical principles in labour relations, conduct a detailed analysis of the effectiveness of codes of ethics in the field of labour relations in the framework of corruption prevention, and analyse the application of comprehensive codes of ethics and disciplinary codes as a stimulating tool for the effectiveness of the codes of ethics. As a result, we have drawn conclusions about the importance of using other auxiliary tools alongside codes of ethics to increase efficiency, and in the course of studying the problematic aspects of implementing codes of ethics in the framework of corruption prevention, we have formulated recommendations for their elimination.

This paper proposes a consistent nonparametric test with good sampling properties to detect instantaneous causality between vector autoregressive (VAR) variables with time-varying variances. The new test takes the form of the U-statistic, and has a limiting standard normal distribution under the null. We further show that the test is consistent against any fixed alternatives, and has nontrivial asymptotic power against a class of local alternatives with a rate slower than $T^{-1/2}$. We also propose a wild bootstrap procedure to better approximate the finite sample null distribution of the test statistic. Monte Carlo experiments are conducted to highlight the merits of the proposed test relative to other popular tests in finite samples. Finally, we apply the new test to investigate the instantaneous causality relationship between money supply and inflation rates in the USA.

Transnational marriage is a controversial topic in Hmong communities in the United States, Laos, and Thailand, and has sometimes led to intra-ethnic disputes and conflicts. Initially, many of the Hmong American men who travelled overseas to marry Hmong Lao or Thai women were already married. Furthermore, the Hmong American community has frequently come to believe that economic gain is the primary motivation for Hmong Lao/Thai women to marry Hmong American men. On the other hand, some activists have referred to these marriages generally as “abusive transnational marriages.” The association of economic resources with transnational marriage, including remittances, increased bride prices, and opportunities for migration to the United States, has perpetuated negative stereotypes that frequently overshadow the personal stories of many Hmong Lao/Thai women who do not fit with the stereotypes. For these women, marrying a Hmong American man signifies not only personal gain but also economic advancement for their families. This paper reviews the intricacies related to the topic of Hmong transnational marriage between Hmong American men and their Hmong Lao and Hmong Thai brides. In doing so, we argue that it is important to consider the complexity and nuances associated with Hmong transnational marriages, as they take on various forms that go beyond standard stereotypes.

This paper takes a transregional approach to examine primary historical sources that reveal the significance of the experiential and professional meanderings of Chua Boon Hean (1905-1995) for Southeast Asian studies. Chua was a writer and artist who emigrated from Chaozhou in southern China to Malaya in the 1920s. He became a prominent figure in the film industry and is recognised as a cultural icon of post-independence Singapore. Chua’s story calls for a careful re-examination of the ambiguities and connections between ‘diaspora’, ‘ethnicity’ and ‘borders’. While policymakers had reasons to adopt such labels to manage a diverse population in a colonial and post-colonial setting, researchers must recognise the limits and implications of such efforts. Experiences of social belonging and ethnic identity – more malleable than categories might allow – repudiate this approach of rigid labelling. By adding new dimensions and fresh primary sources from Chua’s archive to ongoing discussions in Southeast Asian studies, this paper illuminates the fluidity of Chinese diasporic networks and ethnic identity overseas. By examining Chua’s story through a transregional historical lens, this paper lays the groundwork for a more imaginative approach to understanding the elastic and fluid process of identity formation in modern Asia. Such a perspective can contribute significantly to the current climate of heightened mobilities and politicised exchanges in Southeast Asia.

This article compares late Imperial Russia (1850-1917) and its successor states — post-revolutionary independent Ukraine (1918-1919) and early Soviet Russia and the USSR (1918-1923) — focusing on the conception and implementation of state policy toward the Jews. It argues that Russian Imperial, Ukrainian nationalist and Soviet socialist policies treated the Jews essentially as a distinct ethno-confessional or ethnic collective entitled to state protection and group rights, thus anticipating (in Imperial Russia) and de-facto realizing (in independent Ukraine and Soviet Russia) the rights of minorities stipulated in the 1919 Paris Peace Treaty and implemented by the Versailles system in interwar Europe. The article shows how by establishing and maintaining separate Jewish institutions (sophisticated state apparatuses staffed by qualified, dedicated Jewish bureaucrats), the states developed and even promoted a collective Jewish identity and collective Jewish rights, starting with state protection and official recognition of Judaism and the Jewish way of life in the late Russian empire, to state-sponsored Jewish national and cultural autonomy in the Ukrainian National Republic, to official recognition as a Soviet nationality, and territorial and semi-political autonomy in the USSR.

We analyze the impact of extending mandatory education from five to eight years on mothers’ involvement in early childhood educational activities, using data from the Turkish Time Use Survey. The compulsory education reform substantially increased the likelihood of mothers completing at least middle school (eight years of schooling). However, it had no significant effect on mothers’ time spent on early childhood educational activities, such as reading, playing, and talking to children. Instead, the reform increased mothers’ total time with children, particularly through housework and social activities involving children. These findings suggest that studies linking maternal education to greater time investment in childcare may suffer from omitted variable bias, as unobserved factors like maternal intelligence and values influence both educational attainment and childcare behaviors. Our findings are critical given that nearly half of pre-primary-age children globally are not enrolled in formal education and primarily remain in home settings.

This study proposes a test for coefficient randomness in autoregressive models where the autoregressive coefficient is local to unity, which is empirically relevant given earlier work. Under this specification, we analyze the effect of the correlation between the random coefficient and disturbance on the properties of tests, a matter that remains largely unexplored in the literature. Our analysis reveals that tests proposed in earlier studies can have poor power when the correlation is moderate to large. The test proposed here is designed to have power functions robust to the correlation. A modified version of the test is suggested that can be applied when the disturbance is serially correlated and conditionally heteroskedastic. The test is shown to have better power properties than existing ones in large and finite samples.

This article discusses the history of wine in (what is now) Portugal, within the global history of the region. The Phoenicians brought wine and viticulture to the southern and western coasts of Iberia in the eighth century bce. The Romans expanded viticulture to the entire Peninsula in the late second century bce. Wine survived the ‘Barbarian’ invasions and centuries of Islamic rule. A revival of viticulture followed the capture of Lisbon by Afonso Henriques in 1147. In the early days of the age of exploration, Portugal developed trade routes to Africa, India, the Far East, and South America. The long-distance sailing was facilitated by the colonization of the Madeira and Açores (Azores) archipelagos. The wines produced there became famous, especially in England and North America. The fortification of wine in the late seventeenth century resulted in the emergence of modern Madeiras and Ports. Following the 1755 ‘Lisbon’ earthquake, Pombal imposed strict geographical delimitations and winemaking rules in the Douro. Napoleon’s Peninsular War devastated the Portuguese economy, and then viticulture was badly hit by oïdium and phylloxera, the First World War, the Great Depression, Prohibition, and the Second World War. Portuguese wines finally emerged on the world scene after the Salazar dictatorship.

The sources formally documenting how tax policy evolves fail to capture many of the complexities inherent in such processes. Insights into such approaches would guide other tax administrations in navigating tax policy change in an international domain. This paper examines the historical background to the introduction of the Irish 12.5 percent corporate tax rate in 2003 in the face of the European Union’s (EU) dissatisfaction with the existing regime. A low corporate tax rate has long been seen as a critical element of the country’s industrial development strategy. Employing an oral history method to identify the perspectives and objectives of those involved in the policymaking process, we provide a case study of how one tax administration resolved what was seen as a particularly significant public policy dilemma.

In this article, we present an exploration of the social meaning and functions of marketplace sounds – including language, yelling and hailing – in two adjacent, yet very different sites in Copenhagen, Gammel Strand and Højbro Plads. We argue that the marketplace soundscapes played central functions as means of constructing customer-oriented semiotic spaces while negotiating territories and branding and selling products. Language by way of dialectal speech, yelling, street cries, cursing and swearing was an integral part of such processes. The two sites, by virtue of their physical placement in close proximity to each other, reinforced the contrasts between them, hence, co-constructing contrasting sonic territories – a concept which we employ and develop as part of the analysis. Central to our argument is that a sensory approach, including the sound of language, to a semiotic description of the urban marketplace requires a historical contextualization of the marketplace and its functions in the urban space, as well as of the life and culture of the marketplace vendors themselves; that is, the case in point, the female vendors from Amager and Skovshoved.

We briefly describe the structure of a regulatory system that alleviates many of the problems that arise when elected officials delegate rulemaking authority to government agencies. These problems include principal-agent issues, monopoly provision, information asymmetry, and tragedy of the commons. This structure better aligns the incentives of regulators with those of legislators and with the well-being of the public. We intend the solutions and process structure presented here not to serve as a collection of proposed changes but as guideposts for those hoping to make any part of the regulatory system better attuned to the needs of the populace.