In network models for real-world domains, often network adaptation has to be addressed by incorporating certain network adaptation principles. In some cases, also higher order adaptation occurs: the adaptation principles themselves also change over time. To model such multilevel adaptation processes, it is useful to have some generic architecture. Such an architecture should describe and distinguish the dynamics within the network (base level), but also the dynamics of the network itself by certain adaptation principles (first-order adaptation level), and also the adaptation of these adaptation principles (second-order adaptation level), and may be still more levels of higher order adaptation. This paper introduces a multilevel network architecture for this, based on the notion network reification. Reification of a network occurs when a base network is extended by adding explicit states representing the characteristics of the structure of the base network. It will be shown how this construction can be used to explicitly represent network adaptation principles within a network. When the reified network is itself also reified, also second-order adaptation principles can be explicitly represented. The multilevel network reification construction introduced here is illustrated for an adaptive adaptation principle from social science for bonding based on homophily and one for metaplasticity in Cognitive Neuroscience.

In multilevel modeling of clustered survival data, to account for the differences among different clusters, a commonly used approach is to introduce cluster effects, either random or fixed, into the model. Modeling with random effects may lead to difficulties in the implementation of the estimation procedure for the unknown parameters of interest because the numerical computation of multiple integrals may become unavoidable when the cluster effects are not scalars. On the other hand, if fixed effects are used, there is a danger of having estimators with large variances because there are too many nuisance parameters involved in the model. In this article, using the idea of the homogeneity pursuit, we propose a new multilevel modeling approach for clustered survival data. The proposed modeling approach does not have the potential computational problem as modeling with random effects, and it also involves far fewer unknown parameters than modeling with fixed effects. We also establish asymptotic properties to show the advantages of the proposed model and conduct intensive simulation studies to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method. Finally, the proposed method is applied to analyze a dataset on the second-birth interval in Bangladesh. The most interesting finding is the impact of some important factors on the length of the second-birth interval variation over clusters and its homogeneous structure.

Clostridioides (Clostridium) difficile infection (CDI) is the leading cause of infectious diarrhoea in hospitalised patients, representing a substantial economic burden driven mainly by increased length of hospital stay (LoS). Currently in Japan, limited evidence on CDI-associated excess LoS is available. We conducted a retrospective, matched-cohort study using a large, Japanese, hospital-based administrative database. CDI was defined as CDI treatment plus either CDI diagnosis or positive enzyme immunoassay result. Propensity score matching at the time of CDI or recurrent CDI (rCDI) onset was applied to adjust baseline confounding and immortal time bias. The analysis included 5 994 054 hospitalisation records during 2008–2017, of which 11 823 were identified as CDI and 1359 as rCDI. The median excess LoS attributable to CDI and rCDI was 3 days and 6.5 days, respectively. The excess mortality attributable to CDI was 6.9%; there was no excess mortality attributable to rCDI (−1.9%). The median difference in costs attributable to CDI and rCDI during the residual stay was JPY 130 296 (USD 1185) and JPY 81 054 (USD 737) per hospitalisation, respectively. By adjusting the biases, the burden of CDI in Japan was evaluated. The findings could support decision making and resource allocation for CDI management in Japanese hospitals.

This article considers the interval availability and instant availability of the k-system. A certain relationship between the two types of availability is established. Some lower and upper bounds to interval availability are derived. It also provides a couple of conditions under which the availability of two systems can be compared. Several examples are given to show the complexity of comparisons of availability.

Gastroenteritis remains a serious health condition among children under 5 years especially in Africa. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the aetiologic pathogens of gastroenteritis in the region. We did a systematic search for articles with original data on the aetiology of gastroenteritis and acute diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years. Pooled results were extracted and analysed in STATA version 12.0 using random-effects for statistical test for homogeneity following the guidelines provided in the Cochrane Collaboration and Preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Overall, viruses accounted for 50.2% of the cases followed by bacteria with 31.6% of the cases. Parasites accounted for 12.1% of the case. Rotavirus was the most common cause of acute diarrhoea in all regions resulting in 29.2% of the cases followed by E. coli (15.6%) of diarrhoeal cases and Adenovirus (10.8%). The most prevalent parasite detected was Giardia lamblia (7.3%). Acute diarrhoea remains rampant with Rotavirus still being the major pathogen responsible for the disease in children less than 5 years old despite the introduction of vaccine. It is recommended that the vaccine should be promoted much more widely in the region.

This paper discusses stochastic comparisons for the residual and past lifetimes of coherent systems with dependent and identically distributed (d.i.d.) components under random monitoring in terms of the hazard rate, the reversed hazard rate, and the likelihood ratio orders. Some stochastic comparisons results are also established on the residual lifetimes of coherent systems under random observation times when all of the components are alive at that time. Sufficient conditions are established in terms of the aging properties of the components and the distortion functions induced from the system structure and dependence among components lifetimes. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results as well.

The directed preferential attachment model is revisited. A new exact characterization of the limiting in- and out-degree distribution is given by two independent pure birth processes that are observed at a common exponentially distributed time T (thus creating dependence between in- and out-degree). The characterization gives an explicit form for the joint degree distribution, and this confirms previously derived tail probabilities for the two marginal degree distributions. The new characterization is also used to obtain an explicit expression for tail probabilities in which both degrees are large. A new generalized directed preferential attachment model is then defined and analyzed using similar methods. The two extensions, motivated by empirical evidence, are to allow double-directed (i.e. undirected) edges in the network, and to allow the probability of connecting an ingoing (outgoing) edge to a specified node to also depend on the out-degree (in-degree) of that node.

This work is devoted to a vast extension of Sanov’s theorem, in Laplace principle form, based on alternatives to the classical convex dual pair of relative entropy and cumulant generating functional. The abstract results give rise to a number of probabilistic limit theorems and asymptotics. For instance, widely applicable non-exponential large deviation upper bounds are derived for empirical distributions and averages of independent and identically distributed samples under minimal integrability assumptions, notably accommodating heavy-tailed distributions. Other interesting manifestations of the abstract results include new results on the rate of convergence of empirical measures in Wasserstein distance, uniform large deviation bounds, and variational problems involving optimal transport costs, as well as an application to error estimates for approximate solutions of stochastic optimization problems. The proofs build on the Dupuis–Ellis weak convergence approach to large deviations as well as the duality theory for convex risk measures.

A new approach to the problem of finding the distribution of integral functionals under the excursion measure is presented. It is based on the technique of excursion straddling a time, stochastic analysis, and calculus on local time, and it is done for Brownian motion with drift reflecting at 0, and under some additional assumptions for some class of Itó diffusions. The new method is an alternative to the classical potential-theoretic approach and gives new specific formulas for distributions under the excursion measure.

We establish an invariance principle and a large deviation principle for a biased random walk ${\text{RW}}_\lambda$ with $\lambda\in [0,1)$ on $\mathbb{Z}^d$. The scaling limit in the invariance principle is not a d-dimensional Brownian motion. For the large deviation principle, its rate function is different from that of a drifted random walk, as may be expected, though the reflected biased random walk evolves like the drifted random walk in the interior of the first quadrant and almost surely visits coordinate planes finitely many times.

Let $X_1, X_2,\dots$ be a short-memory linear process of random variables. For $1\leq q<2$, let ${\mathcal{F}}$ be a bounded set of real-valued functions on [0, 1] with finite q-variation. It is proved that $\{n^{-1/2}\sum_{i=1}^nX_i\,f(i/n)\colon f\in{\mathcal{F}}\}$ converges in outer distribution in the Banach space of bounded functions on ${\mathcal{F}}$ as $n\to\infty$. Several applications to a regression model and a multiple change point model are given.

We investigate the long-time behavior of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process driven by Lévy noise with regime switching. We provide explicit criteria on the transience and recurrence of this process. Contrasted with the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process driven simply by Brownian motion, whose stationary distribution must be light-tailed, both the jumps caused by the Lévy noise and the regime switching described by a Markov chain can derive the heavy-tailed property of the stationary distribution. The different role played by the Lévy measure and the regime-switching process is clearly characterized.

Polling systems are queueing systems consisting of multiple queues served by a single server. In this paper we analyze two types of preemptive time-limited polling systems, the so-called pure and exhaustive time-limited disciplines. In particular, we derive a direct relation for the evolution of the joint queue length during the course of a server visit. The analysis of the pure time-limited discipline builds on and extends several known results for the transient analysis of an M/G/1 queue. For the analysis of the exhaustive discipline we derive several new results for the transient analysis of the M/G/1 queue during a busy period. The final expressions for both types of polling systems that we obtain generalize previous results by incorporating customer routeing, generalized service times, batch arrivals, and Markovian polling of the server.

The stacked contact process is a three-state spin system that describes the co-evolution of a population of hosts together with their symbionts. In a nutshell, the hosts evolve according to a contact process while the symbionts evolve according to a contact process on the dynamic subset of the lattice occupied by the host population, indicating that the symbiont can only live within a host. This paper is concerned with a generalization of this system in which the symbionts may affect the fitness of the hosts by either decreasing (pathogen) or increasing (mutualist) their birth rate. Standard coupling arguments are first used to compare the process with other interacting particle systems and deduce the long-term behavior of the host–symbiont system in several parameter regions. The spatial model is also compared with its mean-field approximation as studied in detail by Foxall (2019). Our main result focuses on the case where unassociated hosts have a supercritical birth rate whereas hosts associated to a pathogen have a subcritical birth rate. In this case, the mean-field model predicts coexistence of the hosts and their pathogens provided the infection rate is large enough. For the spatial model, however, only the hosts survive on the one-dimensional integer lattice.

For a zero-mean, unit-variance stationary univariate Gaussian process we derive the probability that a record at the time n, say $X_n$, takes place, and derive its distribution function. We study the joint distribution of the arrival time process of records and the distribution of the increments between records. We compute the expected number of records. We also consider two consecutive and non-consecutive records, one at time j and one at time n, and we derive the probability that the joint records $(X_j,X_n)$ occur, as well as their distribution function. The probability that the records $X_n$ and $(X_j,X_n)$ take place and the arrival time of the nth record are independent of the marginal distribution function, provided that it is continuous. These results actually hold for a strictly stationary process with Gaussian copulas.

In this paper, the signature of a multi-state coherent system with binary-state components is discussed, and then it is extended to the case of ordered system lifetimes arising from a life-test on coherent multi-state systems with the same multi-state system signature. Some properties of the multi-state system signature and the ordered multi-state system signature are also studied. The results established here are finally explained through some illustrative examples.

Let $(A_i)_{i \geq 0}$ be a finite-state irreducible aperiodic Markov chain and f a lattice score function such that the average score is negative and positive scores are possible. Define $S_0\coloneqq 0$ and $S_k\coloneqq \sum_{i=1}^k f(A_i)$ the successive partial sums, $S^+$ the maximal non-negative partial sum, $Q_1$ the maximal segmental score of the first excursion above 0, and $M_n\coloneqq \max_{0\leq k\leq\ell\leq n} (S_{\ell}-S_k)$ the local score, first defined by Karlin and Altschul (1990). We establish recursive formulae for the exact distribution of $S^+$ and derive a new approximation for the tail behaviour of $Q_1$ , together with an asymptotic equivalence for the distribution of $M_n$ . Computational methods are explicitly presented in a simple application case. The new approximations are compared with those proposed by Karlin and Dembo (1992) in order to evaluate improvements, both in the simple application case and on the real data examples considered by Karlin and Altschul (1990).