A new Markov process is introduced, describing growth or spread in two dimensions, via the aggregation of particles or the filling of cells. States of the process are configurations of part of the boundary of the growing aggregate, and transitions are captures or escapes of single particles. For suitably chosen transition rates, the process is dynamically reversible, leading to an explicit stationary distribution and a statistical description of the boundary. The growth rate is calculated and growth behaviour described. Different asymptotic relations between transition rates lead to different growth patterns or regimes. Besides the regimes familiar in polymer crystal growth, several new ones are described. The aggregate can have a porous structure resembling thin solid films deposited from vapour. Two measures of porosity, one for the boundary and one for the bulk, are calculated. The process is relevant to growing colonies of bacteria or the like, to the spread of epidemics and grass or forest fires, and to voter models.

Consider a continuum percolation model in which, at each point of a d-dimensional Poisson process of rate λ, a ball of radius 1 is centred. We show that, for any d ≧ 3, there exists a phase where both the regions, occupied and vacant, contain unbounded components. The proof uses the concept of enhancement for the Boolean model, and along the way we prove that the critical intensity of a Boolean model defined on a slab is strictly larger than the critical intensity of a Boolean model defined on the whole space.

For a stationary point process X of sets in the convex ring in ℝd, a relation is given between the mean particles of the section process X ∩ E (where E varies through the set of k-dimensional subspaces in ℝd) and a mean particle of X. In particular, it is shown that the mean bodies of all planar sections of X determine the Blaschke body of X and hence the mean normal distribution of X.

The gating mechanism of a single ion channel is usually modelled by a continuous-time Markov chain with a finite state space, partitioned into two classes termed ‘open’ and ‘closed’. It is possible to observe only which class the process is in. A burst of channel openings is defined to be a succession of open sojourns separated by closed sojourns all having duration less than t0. Let N(t) be the number of bursts commencing in (0, t]. Then are measures of the degree of temporal clustering of bursts. We develop two methods for determining the above measures. The first method uses an embedded Markov renewal process and remains valid when the underlying channel process is semi-Markov and/or brief sojourns in either the open or closed classes of state are undetected. The second method uses a ‘backward’ differential-difference equation.

The observed channel process when brief sojourns are undetected can be modelled by an embedded Markov renewal process, whose kernel is shown, by exploiting connections with bursts when all sojourns are detected, to satisfy a differential-difference equation. This permits a unified derivation of both exact and approximate expressions for the kernel, and leads to a thorough asymptotic analysis of the kernel as the length of undetected sojourns tends to zero.

The dynamical aspects of single channel gating can be modelled by a Markov renewal process, with states aggregated into two classes corresponding to the receptor channel being open or closed, and with brief sojourns in either class not detected. This paper is concerned with the relation between the amount of time, for a given record, in which the channel appears to be open compared to the amount in which it is actually open and the difference in their proportions; this may be used to obtain information on the unobserved actual process from the observed one. Results, with extensions, on exponential families have been applied to obtain relevant generating functions and asymptotic normal distributions, including explicit forms for the parameters. Numerical results are given as illustration in special cases.

We consider a risk process with stochastic interest rate, and show that the probability of eventual ruin and the Laplace transform of the time of ruin can be found by solving certain boundary value problems involving integro-differential equations. These equations are then solved for a number of special cases. We also show that a sequence of such processes converges weakly towards a diffusion process, and analyze the above-mentioned ruin quantities for the limit process in some detail.

An important model in communications is the stochastic FM signal st = A cos , where the message process {mt} is a stochastic process. In this paper, we investigate the linear models and limit distributions of FM signals. Firstly, we show that this non-linear model in the frequency domain can be converted to an ARMA (2, q + 1) model in the time domain when {mt} is a Gaussian MA (q) sequence. The spectral density of {St} can then be solved easily for MA message processes. Also, an error bound is given for an ARMA approximation for more general message processes. Secondly, we show that {St} is asymptotically strictly stationary if {mt} is a Markov chain satisfying a certain condition on its transition kernel. Also, we find the limit distribution of st for some message processes {mt}. These results show that a joint method of probability theory, linear and non-linear time series analysis can yield fruitful results. They also have significance for FM modulation and demodulation in communications.

We consider a problem proposed by S. Alpern (European Journal of Operational Research (1997)) of how two players can optimally rendezvous while at the same time evading an enemy searcher. This problem can be modelled as a two-person, zero-sum game between the rendezvous team R (with agents R1, R2) and the searcher S. This paper gives the first solution to such a rendezvous-evasion game by considering a version that is discrete in time and space, as in the pure rendezvous problem of Anderson and Weber (Journal of Applied Probability28, pp. 839–851). R1,R2 and S start at different locations among the n identical locations where there is no common labelling and at each integer time they may rellocate to any one of the n locations. When some location is occupied by more than one player, the game ends. If S is at this location, S (maximizer) wins and the payoff is 1; otherwise R(minimizer) wins and the payoff is 0. The value of the game is the probability that Swins under optimal play. We assume that R1 and R2 can jointly randomize their strategies. When n equals 3, the value of the game is . We also prove that the value of the game is bounded above by asymptotically. If, in addition, the players share a common notion of a directed cycle containing all the nlocations (while still able to move between any two locations), the value of the game is ((1 – 2/n)n–1 + l)/2. Finally, we prove that with this extra information, R can secure a strictly lower value for all n.

Dependability evaluation is a basic component in the assessment of the quality of repairable systems. We develop a model taking simultaneously into account the occurrence of failures and repairs, together with the observation of user-defined success events. The model is built from a Markovian description of the behavior of the system. We obtain the distribution function of the joint number of observed failures and of delivered services on a fixed mission period of the system. In particular, the marginal distribution of the number of failures can be directly related to the distribution of the Markovian arrival process extensively used in queueing theory. We give both the analytical expressions of the considered distributions and the algorithmic solutions for their evaluation. An asymptotic analysis is also provided.

Recently, Asmussen and Koole (Journal of Applied Probability30, pp. 365–372) showed that any discrete or continuous time marked point process can be approximated by a sequence of arrival streams modulated by finite state continuous time Markov chains. If the original process is customer (time) stationary then so are the approximating processes. Also, the moments in the stationary case converge. For discrete marked point processes we construct a sequence of discrete processes modulated by discrete time finite state Markov chains. All the above features of approximating sequences of Asmussen and Koole continue to hold. For discrete arrival sequences (to a queue) which are modulated by a countable state Markov chain we form a different sequence of approximating arrival streams by which, unlike in the Asmussen and Koole case, even the stationary moments of waiting times can be approximated. Explicit constructions for the output process of a queue and the total input process of a discrete time Jackson network with these characteristics are obtained.

We consider a regenerative queueing process that is (partially) generated by an embedded phase-type renewal process. We show that, under some specified conditions, a performance measure is an analytic function of the rate of the renewal process. We then develop several methods for deriving its Taylor polynomial in the renewal rate. These polynomials are asymptotically exact as the rate decreases, and, thus, are called light traffic approximations of the performance measure. We show via examples that these new methods are not only more efficient compared to existing ones, but also more versatile due to their general settings, such as to conduct perturbation analysis and study transient behavior.