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Why quantum probability does not explain the conjunction fallacy

  • Katya Tentori (a1) and Vincenzo Crupi (a2)
Abstract

We agree with Pothos & Busemeyer (P&B) that formal tools can be fruitfully employed to model human judgment under uncertainty, including well-known departures from principles of classical probability. However, existing findings either contradict P&B's quantum probability approach or support it to a limited extent. The conjunction fallacy serves as a key illustration of both kinds of problems.

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Busemeyer, J. R., Pothos, E. M., Franco, R. & Trueblood, J. S. (2011) A quantum theoretical explanation for probability judgment errors. Psychological Review 118(2):193218.
Costello, F. J. (2009) How probability theory explains the conjunction fallacy. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 22:213–34.
Crupi, V., Fitelson, B. & Tentori, K. (2008) Probability, confirmation, and the conjunction fallacy. Thinking & Reasoning 14:182–99.
Nilsson, H., Winman, A., Juslin, P. & Hansson, G. (2009) Linda is not a bearded lady: Configural weighting and adding as the cause of extension errors. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 138:517–34.
Tentori, K., Bonini, N. & Osherson, D. (2004) The conjunction fallacy: A misunderstanding about conjunction? Cognitive Science 28:467–77.
Tentori, K., Crupi, V. & Russo, S. (2013) On the determinants of the conjunction fallacy: Confirmation versus probability. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 142: 235–55.
Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1982) Judgments of and by representativeness. In: Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, ed. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A., pp. 8498). Cambridge University Press.
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Behavioral and Brain Sciences
  • ISSN: 0140-525X
  • EISSN: 1469-1825
  • URL: /core/journals/behavioral-and-brain-sciences
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