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A data set on intestinal helminth parasites was collected in the course of an 18 year investigation into the biology of eels in Meelick Bay, Lough Derg, River Shannon. This was used to test two hypotheses relating to the composition and structure of intestinal helminth communities, namely that eels in large rivers do not harbour richer and more diverse communities than those in small rivers but that community composition and structure are more stable over time than in small rivers. The helminth community was species poor, with only six species comprising the component community and a maximum infracommunity richness of three species. The community was overwhelmingly dominated by the acanthocephalan Acanthocephalus lucii, reflecting the importance of its intermediate host Asellus aquaticus in the eels' diet. The remaining helminth species contributed to species richness but made very little contribution to community diversity. Population levels of Acanthocephalus lucii fell and remained low between 1992 and 2000, probably reflecting increased movement of eels from other parts of the lough into Meelick Bay. Diversity values were low, but similar to those reported from other rivers in Britain and Europe. The results provided support for both hypotheses and indicated that in respect of richness, diversity and dominance, the helminth communities of eels in the River Shannon were typical of, and comparable to, those of other large rivers throughout Europe.
Ligula (Cestoda: Pseudophyllidea) infections in gudgeon (Gobio gobio) and roach (Rutilus rutilus) differ markedly in the pathology that is observed in the host, particularly with respect to a tissue response and the extent of inhibition of gonadal development. The entire internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region (ITS-1, 5.8S and ITS-2) and the large subunit domains D1–D3 were sequenced and compared in parasites from these fish from Lough Neagh, Northern Ireland, together with a single specimen from minnow (Phoxinus phoxinus) from Wales. Sufficient differences were observed between parasites from R. rutilus and G. gobio to support the suggestion that they may represent different strains/species. In contrast, Ligula from P. phoxinus closely resembled those from R. rutilus. Ligula infections in G. gobio were recorded prior to the introduction of R. rutilus. The co-existence of separate strains or species of Ligula in Lough Neagh probably resulted from the introduction of R. rutilus to these waters, correlated with an increase in the number of great crested grebes (Podiceps cristatus).
The population biology of the fish acanthocephalan Acanthocephalus clavula was described from 161 wild brown trout, Salmo trutta sampled over a two-year period in Clogher Lake in the west of Ireland. Overall prevalence of the parasite was 86% and the mean abundance was 53 worms per fish. Despite the presence of large numbers of worms in the trout very few females (2%) attained full reproductive maturity. This suggests that trout is an accidental host. A sample of yellow eels, Anguilla anguilla was examined at a different time from the same lake. The prevalence of A. clavula was 97% and the average abundance was 8 worms per fish. In contrast to the situation in trout, the proportion of female worms attaining full reproductive maturity was 61% fulfilling the expected characteristic of a preferred definitive host. The possible explanations for the very high abundance of A. clavula in trout are discussed and include the influence of fluctuations in host populations, host diet and the absence of a potential competitor.
The composition and diversity of the total and intestinal component and infra-communities were determined in eels Anguilla anguilla from three shallow lagoons on the Adriatic coast of Italy to determine whether the helminth communities would differ in composition and structure from those in eels from lagoons on the Tyrrhenian coast. The lagoons differed in respect of their management regimes and the extent of freshwater influx. Both freshwater and marine species of helminths were found in the eels in all three lagoons, but the freshwater component was richer in Valle Figheri. A suite of three digenean eel specialist species occurred in all three lagoons, of which any two members dominated each community. This conferred a high degree of similarity between the communities of the three lagoons. The same three species also dominated helminth communities in eels in lagoons along the Tyrrhenian coast of Italy, and compositional similarity levels were similar within and between western and eastern groups. Species richness was higher in the component communities of the eels of the Adriatic lagoons when compared to the Tyrrhenian ones, but diversity and dominance indices were of a similar order of magnitude and range. Intestinal helminth communities were richer and more diverse in two of the Adriatic lagoons because the proportion of eels with zero or one helminth species was, unusually, in the minority. It was nevertheless concluded that infracommunity structure was similar in eels from both western and eastern lagoons and that the hypothesis that it would differ in Adriatic lagoons could not be supported. The findings provide further evidence of the similarity in composition and structure of helminth communities in eels from coastal lagoons throughout Europe.
The hidden curriculum (HC), or implicit norms and values within a field or institution, affects faculty at all career stages. This study surveyed affiliates of a junior faculty training program (n = 12) to assess the importance of HC topics for junior faculty, mentors, and institutional leaders. For non-diverse junior faculty and their mentors, work-life balance, research logistics, and resilience were key HC topics. Coping with bias and assertive communication were emphasized for diverse junior faculty and mentors. Institutional norms and vision were essential for leaders, while networking was important for all groups. Future research should explore HC needs and potential interventions.
Identifying neuroimaging biomarkers of antidepressant response may help guide treatment decisions and advance precision medicine.
Aims
To examine the relationship between anhedonia and functional neurocircuitry in key reward processing brain regions in people with major depressive disorder receiving aripiprazole adjunct therapy with escitalopram.
Method
Data were collected as part of the CAN-BIND-1 study. Participants experiencing a current major depressive episode received escitalopram for 8 weeks; escitalopram non-responders received adjunct aripiprazole for an additional 8 weeks. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (on weeks 0 and 8) and clinical assessment of anhedonia (on weeks 0, 8 and 16) were completed. Seed-based correlational analysis was employed to examine the relationship between baseline resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC), using the nucleus accumbens (NAc) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) as key regions of interest, and change in anhedonia severity after adjunct aripiprazole.
Results
Anhedonia severity significantly improved after treatment with adjunct aripiprazole.
There was a positive correlation between anhedonia improvement and rsFC between the ACC and posterior cingulate cortex, ACC and posterior praecuneus, and NAc and posterior praecuneus. There was a negative correlation between anhedonia improvement and rsFC between the ACC and anterior praecuneus and NAc and anterior praecuneus.
Conclusions
Eight weeks of aripiprazole, adjunct to escitalopram, was associated with improved anhedonia symptoms. Changes in functional connectivity between key reward regions were associated with anhedonia improvement, suggesting aripiprazole may be an effective treatment for individuals experiencing reward-related deficits. Future studies are required to replicate our findings and explore their generalisability, using other agents with partial dopamine (D2) agonism and/or serotonin (5-HT2A) antagonism.
To examine patterns of cognitive function among a clinical sample of patients seeking treatment for Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC).
Participants and Methods:
One hundred nineteen patients each completed a baseline neuropsychological evaluation, including clinical diagnostic interview, cognitive assessments, and a comprehensive battery of self-report questionnaires. Patients had a mean age of 50 years (range:18 to 74, SD=10.1) and a mean of 15.5 years (SD=2.54) of formal education. Patients were primarily female (74%) and of White/Caucasian race (75%). Hierarchical agglomerative clustering was used to partition the data into groups based on cognitive performance. Euclidean distance was used as the similarity measure for the continuous variables and within-cluster variance was minimized using Ward’s method. The optimal number of clusters was determined empirically by fitting models with 1 to 15 clusters, with the best number of clusters selected using the silhouette index. All analyses were conducted using the NbClust package, an R package for determining the relevant number of clusters in a data set.
Results:
Clustering yielded two distinct clusters of cognitive performance. Group 1 (n=57) performed worse than Group 2 (n=62) on most cognitive variables (including a brief cognitive screener and tests of attention/working memory, executive function, processing speed, learning and delayed recall). Of note, there were no significant differences between groups on an infection severity scale, hospitalizations/ICU admissions, initial or current COVID-19 symptoms, or prior comorbidities. Groups did not differ in age or gender, but Group 1 had a lower education level than Group 2 (M=14.7, SD=2.45 vs. M=16.2, SD=2.42; p=.001). Group 1 also had significantly more minorities than Group 2 (40% vs. 8%; p<.001). No other demographic differences (income, living arrangement, or marital status) were observed. In comparison to Group 2 patients, Group 1 patients self-reported significantly higher levels of anxiety and depression and functional impairment (Functional Activities Questionnaire: M=11.3, SD=8.33 vs. M=7.65, SD=7.97), perceived stress (Perceived Stress Scale: M=24.7, SD=7.90 vs. M=20.3, SD=7.89), insomnia (Insomnia Severity Index: M=16.0, SD=6.50 vs. M=13.1, SD=6.76), and subjective cognitive functioning (Cognitive Failures Questionnaire: M=58.8, SD=16.9 vs. M=50.3, SD=18.6; p’s<.05).
Conclusions:
Findings indicate two predominant subtypes of patients seeking treatment for PASC, with one group presenting as more cognitively impaired and reporting greater levels of anxiety, depression, insomnia, perceived stress, functional limitations, and subjective cognitive impairment. Future directions include follow-up assessments with these patients to determine cognitive trajectories over time and tailoring treatment adjuncts to address mood symptoms, insomnia, functional ability, and lifestyle variables. Understanding mechanisms of differences in cognitive and affective symptoms is needed in future work. Limitations to the study were that patients were referred for evaluation based on the complaint of “brain fog” and the sample was a homogenous, highly educated, younger group of individuals who experienced generally mild COVID-19 course.
Specialist Perinatal Mental Health Services (SPMHS) are a new development in Ireland. This service evaluation examined the impact of the introduction of a SPMHS multidisciplinary team (MDT) on prescribing practices and treatment pathways in an Irish maternity hospital.
Methods:
Clinical charts were reviewed to collect data on all referrals, diagnoses, pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions delivered in a SPMHS over a 3-week period in 2019. The findings were compared to the same 3-week period in 2020 following the expansion of the SPMHS MDT.
Results:
In 2019 (n = 32) and 2020 (n = 47), most (75 and 79%, respectively) assessments were antenatal. The proportion of patients prescribed psychotropic medication within the SPMHS was not significantly different from 2019 (31%) to 2020 (23%), though more patients were already prescribed psychotropic medications at the time of referral (22% in 2019 v. 36% in 2020). There was an increase in MDT interventions in 2020 with more input from psychology, clinical nurse specialist (CNS), and social work intervention. Adherence to prescribing standards improved from 2019 to 2020.
Conclusion:
Prescribing patterns remained unchanged between 2019 and 2020. Improvement was observed in adherence to prescribing standards and there was increased provision of MDT interventions in 2020. Broader diagnostic categories were also used in 2020, possibly suggesting that the service is now providing more individualized care.
Risk of suicide-related behaviors is elevated among military personnel transitioning to civilian life. An earlier report showed that high-risk U.S. Army soldiers could be identified shortly before this transition with a machine learning model that included predictors from administrative systems, self-report surveys, and geospatial data. Based on this result, a Veterans Affairs and Army initiative was launched to evaluate a suicide-prevention intervention for high-risk transitioning soldiers. To make targeting practical, though, a streamlined model and risk calculator were needed that used only a short series of self-report survey questions.
Methods
We revised the original model in a sample of n = 8335 observations from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS) who participated in one of three Army STARRS 2011–2014 baseline surveys while in service and in one or more subsequent panel surveys (LS1: 2016–2018, LS2: 2018–2019) after leaving service. We trained ensemble machine learning models with constrained numbers of item-level survey predictors in a 70% training sample. The outcome was self-reported post-transition suicide attempts (SA). The models were validated in the 30% test sample.
Results
Twelve-month post-transition SA prevalence was 1.0% (s.e. = 0.1). The best constrained model, with only 17 predictors, had a test sample ROC-AUC of 0.85 (s.e. = 0.03). The 10–30% of respondents with the highest predicted risk included 44.9–92.5% of 12-month SAs.
Conclusions
An accurate SA risk calculator based on a short self-report survey can target transitioning soldiers shortly before leaving service for intervention to prevent post-transition SA.
A survey of attitudes towards the welfare and rights of animals was conducted in universities in 11 European and Asian countries, to improve understanding of cultural differences that might impact on trade and international relations. Collaborators’ universities were recruited in each country to assist in the design, translation and administration of the survey via the internet in a convenient selection of the country's universities, providing 3,433 student responses from at least 103 universities. Respondents rated the acceptability of 43 major concerns about animals (focused on type of use, animal integrity, killing animals, animal welfare, experimentation on animals, changes in animal genotypes, the environment for animals and societal attitudes towards animals). Students from European countries had more concern for animal welfare than students from Asian countries, which may be partly explained by increased affluence of European students as there was a positive correlation between student expenditure and concern for animal welfare and rights. Southern and central European countries had most concern for animal rights and unnatural practices. Those in communist or former communist countries in Asia and Europe had most concern about killing animals and those in northern European countries the least. Regional similarities between neighbouring countries were evident in responses to animal issues and there were no differences between ethnic groups within a country. Thus, there were national and continental differences in European and Asian students’ attitudes to animals’ welfare and rights, which appear to arise as a result of the socio-political situation in regions rather than religious or other differences.
Many clinical trials leverage real-world data. Typically, these data are manually abstracted from electronic health records (EHRs) and entered into electronic case report forms (CRFs), a time and labor-intensive process that is also error-prone and may miss information. Automated transfer of data from EHRs to eCRFs has the potential to reduce data abstraction and entry burden as well as improve data quality and safety.
Methods:
We conducted a test of automated EHR-to-CRF data transfer for 40 participants in a clinical trial of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. We determined which coordinator-entered data could be automated from the EHR (coverage), and the frequency with which the values from the automated EHR feed and values entered by study personnel for the actual study matched exactly (concordance).
Results:
The automated EHR feed populated 10,081/11,952 (84%) coordinator-completed values. For fields where both the automation and study personnel provided data, the values matched exactly 89% of the time. Highest concordance was for daily lab results (94%), which also required the most personnel resources (30 minutes per participant). In a detailed analysis of 196 instances where personnel and automation entered values differed, both a study coordinator and a data analyst agreed that 152 (78%) instances were a result of data entry error.
Conclusions:
An automated EHR feed has the potential to significantly decrease study personnel effort while improving the accuracy of CRF data.
Temperature is one of the most important factors affecting soil organisms, including the infective stages of parasites and entomopathogenic nematodes, which are important biological control agents. We investigated the response of 2 species of entomopathogenic nematodes to different storage regimes: cold (9°C), culture temperature (20°C) and temperature swapped from 9 to 20°C. For Steinernema carpocapsae, cold storage had profound effects on chemotaxis, stress tolerance and protein expression that were retained in temperature-swapped individuals. These effects included reversal of chemotactic response for 3 (prenol, methyl salicylate and hexanol) of the 4 chemicals tested, and enhanced tolerance to freezing (−10°C) and desiccation (75% RH). Label-free quantitative proteomics showed that cold storage induced widespread changes in S. carpocapsae, including an increase in heat-shock proteins and late embryogenesis abundant proteins. For Heterorhabditis megidis, cold storage had a less dramatic effect on chemotaxis (as previously shown for proteomic expression) and changes were not maintained on return to 20°C. Thus, cold temperature exposure has significant effects on entomopathogenic nematodes, but the nature of the change depends on the species. Steinernema carpocapsae, in particular, displays significant plasticity, and its behaviour and stress tolerance may be manipulated by brief exposure to low temperatures, with implications for its use as a biological control agent.
Blast related characteristics may contribute to the diversity of findings on whether mild traumatic brain injury sustained during war zone deployment has lasting cognitive effects. This study aims to evaluate whether a history of blast exposure at close proximity, defined as exposure within 30 feet, has long-term or lasting influences on cognitive outcomes among current and former military personnel.
Method:
One hundred participants were assigned to one of three groups based on a self-report history of blast exposure during combat deployments: 47 close blast, 14 non-close blast, and 39 comparison participants without blast exposure. Working memory, processing speed, verbal learning/memory, and cognitive flexibility were evaluated using standard neuropsychological tests. In addition, assessment of combat exposure and current post-concussive, posttraumatic stress, and depressive symptoms, and headache was performed via self-report measures. Variables that differed between groups were controlled as covariates.
Results:
No group differences survived Bonferroni correction for family-wise error rate; the close blast group did not differ from non-close blast and comparison groups on measures of working memory, processing speed, verbal learning/memory, or cognitive flexibility. Controlling for covariates did not alter these results.
Conclusion:
No evidence emerged to suggest that a history of close blast exposure was associated with decreased cognitive performance when comparisons were made with the other groups. Limited characterization of blast contexts experienced, self-report of blast distance, and heterogeneity of injury severity within the groups are the main limitations of this study.
Patients with schizophrenia suffer from increased mortality rates equivalent to 15-20 years shorter life expectancy. Up to 60% of this excess mortality can be explained by preventable, somatic conditions like cardiovascular, metabolic, and respiratory comorbidities. As forensic psychiatric (FP) patients often experience the triple stigmatization of mental illness, substance misuse and criminal conviction, the risk of suboptimal diagnosis and treatment may be high. Although benefits from the addition of general practitioner (GP) services to non-FP wards have been shown elsewhere, this cross-sectoral approach has never been attempted in a Danish FP ward.
Objectives
One purpose of this project is to evaluate the associations between self-reported quality of life and objective measures of somatic health.
Methods
A clinical intervention in which a GP consults patients in all medium secure wards in the Central Denmark Region (N=72). The consultation includes a physical examination, medication review, and evaluation of blood samples. Data is collected from: electronic patient files and questionnaires regarding quality of life (SF-12), lifestyle, and attitude towards GP services.
Results
The population will be described in regards to socio-demographic, clinical, and forensic characteristics. Associations will be made between quality of life (SF-12), metabolic syndrome, blood markers, and heart-SCORE risk. Risk profiles for endocrinologic and coronary illness will be examined.
Conclusions
Results may guide future health interventions and will be used as a basis for adjustments to the current project.
Impairment in decision-making capacity is a serious consequence of executive dysfunction secondary to serious mental disorders like schizophrenia. Functional mental capacity (FMC) refers to an individual’s ability to make and communicate legally competent decisions autonomously. Studies have shown that FMC is dependent on severity of psychosis and can improve with treatment.
Objectives
To ascertain the correlation between the scores on a structured judgement tool, namely the Dundrum Capacity Ladders (DCL) with level of acuity of treatment setting and length of stay in a secure forensic hospital.
Methods
Sixty-two patients were interviewed using the DCL across three domains – healthcare, welfare and finances. Correlation between DCL scores, length of hospital stay and level of acuity of treatment setting was assessed.
Results
As patients moved from higher to lower dependency wards, mean DCL score increased, indicating a higher level of capacity. Patients in high dependency wards were most impaired while those in the low dependency wards performed significantly better (rs=0.472, p<0.001). The longer the patients stayed in the hospital, up until five years, the higher the mean welfare domain score (rs=0.402, p=0.011) and mean DCL score (rs=0.376, p=0.018). Beyond five years of hospital stay, those who had lower DCL scores and did not improve had longer length of stay.
Conclusions
Patients’ FMC improve as they progress from high to low level of acuity of treatment setting. However, this is dependent on the length of hospital stay. FMC may be a measure of recovery in the forensic setting.
Prediction of treatment outcomes is a key step in improving the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD). The Canadian Biomarker Integration Network in Depression (CAN-BIND) aims to predict antidepressant treatment outcomes through analyses of clinical assessment, neuroimaging, and blood biomarkers.
Methods
In the CAN-BIND-1 dataset of 192 adults with MDD and outcomes of treatment with escitalopram, we applied machine learning models in a nested cross-validation framework. Across 210 analyses, we examined combinations of predictive variables from three modalities, measured at baseline and after 2 weeks of treatment, and five machine learning methods with and without feature selection. To optimize the predictors-to-observations ratio, we followed a tiered approach with 134 and 1152 variables in tier 1 and tier 2 respectively.
Results
A combination of baseline tier 1 clinical, neuroimaging, and molecular variables predicted response with a mean balanced accuracy of 0.57 (best model mean 0.62) compared to 0.54 (best model mean 0.61) in single modality models. Adding week 2 predictors improved the prediction of response to a mean balanced accuracy of 0.59 (best model mean 0.66). Adding tier 2 features did not improve prediction.
Conclusions
A combination of clinical, neuroimaging, and molecular data improves the prediction of treatment outcomes over single modality measurement. The addition of measurements from the early stages of treatment adds precision. Present results are limited by lack of external validation. To achieve clinically meaningful prediction, the multimodal measurement should be scaled up to larger samples and the robustness of prediction tested in an external validation dataset.
Only a limited number of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) respond to a first course of antidepressant medication (ADM). We investigated the feasibility of creating a baseline model to determine which of these would be among patients beginning ADM treatment in the US Veterans Health Administration (VHA).
Methods
A 2018–2020 national sample of n = 660 VHA patients receiving ADM treatment for MDD completed an extensive baseline self-report assessment near the beginning of treatment and a 3-month self-report follow-up assessment. Using baseline self-report data along with administrative and geospatial data, an ensemble machine learning method was used to develop a model for 3-month treatment response defined by the Quick Inventory of Depression Symptomatology Self-Report and a modified Sheehan Disability Scale. The model was developed in a 70% training sample and tested in the remaining 30% test sample.
Results
In total, 35.7% of patients responded to treatment. The prediction model had an area under the ROC curve (s.e.) of 0.66 (0.04) in the test sample. A strong gradient in probability (s.e.) of treatment response was found across three subsamples of the test sample using training sample thresholds for high [45.6% (5.5)], intermediate [34.5% (7.6)], and low [11.1% (4.9)] probabilities of response. Baseline symptom severity, comorbidity, treatment characteristics (expectations, history, and aspects of current treatment), and protective/resilience factors were the most important predictors.
Conclusions
Although these results are promising, parallel models to predict response to alternative treatments based on data collected before initiating treatment would be needed for such models to help guide treatment selection.
In the United States, cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death and the rate of maternal mortality remains among the highest of any industrialized nation. Maternal cardiometabolic health throughout gestation and postpartum is representative of placental health and physiology. Both proper placental functionality and placental microRNA expression are essential to successful pregnancy outcomes, and both are highly sensitive to genetic and environmental sources of variation. Placental pathologies, such as preeclampsia, are associated with maternal cardiovascular health but may also contribute to the developmental programming of chronic disease in offspring. However, the role of more subtle alterations to placental function and microRNA expression in this developmental programming remains poorly understood. We performed small RNA sequencing to investigate microRNA in placentae from the Rhode Island Child Health Study (n = 230). MicroRNA counts were modeled on maternal family history of cardiovascular disease using negative binomial generalized linear models. MicroRNAs were considered to be differentially expressed at a false discovery rate (FDR) less than 0.10. Parallel mRNA sequencing data and bioinformatic target prediction software were then used to identify potential mRNA targets of differentially expressed microRNAs. Nine differentially expressed microRNAs were identified (FDR < 0.1). Bioinformatic target prediction revealed 66 potential mRNA targets of these microRNAs, many of which are implicated in TGFβ signaling pathway but also in pathways involving cellular metabolism and immunomodulation. A robust association exists between familial cardiovascular disease and placental microRNA expression which may be implicated in both placental insufficiencies and the developmental programming of chronic disease.
Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a psychiatric disorder with complex etiology, with a significant portion of disease risk imparted by genetics. Traditional genome-wide association studies (GWAS) produce principal evidence for the association of genetic variants with disease. Transcriptomic imputation (TI) allows for the translation of those variants into regulatory mechanisms, which can then be used to assess the functional outcome of genetically regulated gene expression (GReX) in a broader setting through the use of phenome-wide association studies (pheWASs) in large and diverse clinical biobank populations with electronic health record phenotypes.
Methods
Here, we applied TI using S-PrediXcan to translate the most recent PGC-ED AN GWAS findings into AN-GReX. For significant genes, we imputed AN-GReX in the Mount Sinai BioMe™ Biobank and performed pheWASs on over 2000 outcomes to test the clinical consequences of aberrant expression of these genes. We performed a secondary analysis to assess the impact of body mass index (BMI) and sex on AN-GReX clinical associations.
Results
Our S-PrediXcan analysis identified 53 genes associated with AN, including what is, to our knowledge, the first-genetic association of AN with the major histocompatibility complex. AN-GReX was associated with autoimmune, metabolic, and gastrointestinal diagnoses in our biobank cohort, as well as measures of cholesterol, medications, substance use, and pain. Additionally, our analyses showed moderation of AN-GReX associations with measures of cholesterol and substance use by BMI, and moderation of AN-GReX associations with celiac disease by sex.
Conclusions
Our BMI-stratified results provide potential avenues of functional mechanism for AN-genes to investigate further.
Fewer than half of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) respond to psychotherapy. Pre-emptively informing patients of their likelihood of responding could be useful as part of a patient-centered treatment decision-support plan.
Methods
This prospective observational study examined a national sample of 807 patients beginning psychotherapy for MDD at the Veterans Health Administration. Patients completed a self-report survey at baseline and 3-months follow-up (data collected 2018–2020). We developed a machine learning (ML) model to predict psychotherapy response at 3 months using baseline survey, administrative, and geospatial variables in a 70% training sample. Model performance was then evaluated in the 30% test sample.
Results
32.0% of patients responded to treatment after 3 months. The best ML model had an AUC (SE) of 0.652 (0.038) in the test sample. Among the one-third of patients ranked by the model as most likely to respond, 50.0% in the test sample responded to psychotherapy. In comparison, among the remaining two-thirds of patients, <25% responded to psychotherapy. The model selected 43 predictors, of which nearly all were self-report variables.
Conclusions
Patients with MDD could pre-emptively be informed of their likelihood of responding to psychotherapy using a prediction tool based on self-report data. This tool could meaningfully help patients and providers in shared decision-making, although parallel information about the likelihood of responding to alternative treatments would be needed to inform decision-making across multiple treatments.