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The treatment recommendation based on a network meta-analysis (NMA) is usually the single treatment with the highest expected value (EV) on an evaluative function. We explore approaches that recommend multiple treatments and that penalise uncertainty, making them suitable for risk-averse decision-makers. We introduce loss-adjusted EV (LaEV) and compare it to GRADE and three probability-based rankings. We define properties of a valid ranking under uncertainty and other desirable properties of ranking systems. A two-stage process is proposed: the first identifies treatments superior to the reference treatment; the second identifies those that are also within a minimal clinically important difference (MCID) of the best treatment. Decision rules and ranking systems are compared on stylised examples and 10 NMAs used in NICE (National Institute of Health and Care Excellence) guidelines. Only LaEV reliably delivers valid rankings under uncertainty and has all the desirable properties. In 10 NMAs comparing between 5 and 41 treatments, an EV decision maker would recommend 4–14 treatments, and LaEV 0–3 (median 2) fewer. GRADE rules give rise to anomalies, and, like the probability-based rankings, the number of treatments recommended depends on arbitrary probability cutoffs. Among treatments that are superior to the reference, GRADE privileges the more uncertain ones, and in 3/10 cases, GRADE failed to recommend the treatment with the highest EV and LaEV. A two-stage approach based on MCID ensures that EV- and LaEV-based rules recommend a clinically appropriate number of treatments. For a risk-averse decision maker, LaEV is conservative, simple to implement, and has an independent theoretical foundation.
Motor neuron disease (MND) is a progressive, fatal, neurodegenerative condition that affects motor neurons in the brain and spinal cord, resulting in loss of the ability to move, speak, swallow and breathe. Acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) is an acceptance-based behavioural therapy that may be particularly beneficial for people living with MND (plwMND). This qualitative study aimed to explore plwMND’s experiences of receiving adapted ACT, tailored to their specific needs, and therapists’ experiences of delivering it.
Method:
Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with plwMND who had received up to eight 1:1 sessions of adapted ACT and therapists who had delivered it within an uncontrolled feasibility study. Interviews explored experiences of ACT and how it could be optimised for plwMND. Interviews were audio recorded, transcribed and analysed using framework analysis.
Results:
Participants were 14 plwMND and 11 therapists. Data were coded into four over-arching themes: (i) an appropriate tool to navigate the disease course; (ii) the value of therapy outweighing the challenges; (iii) relevance to the individual; and (iv) involving others. These themes highlighted that ACT was perceived to be acceptable by plwMND and therapists, and many participants reported or anticipated beneficial outcomes in the future, despite some therapeutic challenges. They also highlighted how individual factors can influence experiences of ACT, and the potential benefit of involving others in therapy.
Conclusions:
Qualitative data supported the acceptability of ACT for plwMND. Future research and clinical practice should address expectations and personal relevance of ACT to optimise its delivery to plwMND.
Key learning aims
(1) To understand the views of people living with motor neuron disease (plwMND) and therapists on acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) for people living with this condition.
(2) To understand the facilitators of and barriers to ACT for plwMND.
(3) To learn whether ACT that has been tailored to meet the specific needs of plwMND needs to be further adapted to potentially increase its acceptability to this population.
Although the link between alcohol involvement and behavioral phenotypes (e.g. impulsivity, negative affect, executive function [EF]) is well-established, the directionality of these associations, specificity to stages of alcohol involvement, and extent of shared genetic liability remain unclear. We estimate longitudinal associations between transitions among alcohol milestones, behavioral phenotypes, and indices of genetic risk.
Methods
Data came from the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (n = 3681; ages 11–36). Alcohol transitions (first: drink, intoxication, alcohol use disorder [AUD] symptom, AUD diagnosis), internalizing, and externalizing phenotypes came from the Semi-Structured Assessment for the Genetics of Alcoholism. EF was measured with the Tower of London and Visual Span Tasks. Polygenic scores (PGS) were computed for alcohol-related and behavioral phenotypes. Cox models estimated associations among PGS, behavior, and alcohol milestones.
Results
Externalizing phenotypes (e.g. conduct disorder symptoms) were associated with future initiation and drinking problems (hazard ratio (HR)⩾1.16). Internalizing (e.g. social anxiety) was associated with hazards for progression from first drink to severe AUD (HR⩾1.55). Initiation and AUD were associated with increased hazards for later depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation (HR⩾1.38), and initiation was associated with increased hazards for future conduct symptoms (HR = 1.60). EF was not associated with alcohol transitions. Drinks per week PGS was linked with increased hazards for alcohol transitions (HR⩾1.06). Problematic alcohol use PGS increased hazards for suicidal ideation (HR = 1.20).
Conclusions
Behavioral markers of addiction vulnerability precede and follow alcohol transitions, highlighting dynamic, bidirectional relationships between behavior and emerging addiction.
Hard cider is a sector of a maturing craft beverage industry that continues to experience growth in the United States. Cider is also experiencing challenges, however, such as competition from other alcohol markets, changing consumer preferences, the supply chain, and inflationary pressures. National policy changes may help promote more optimal outcomes for this sector, but public support is important to policy formation. This study uses survey data from a best-worst scaling experiment of consumers in four leading cider-producing states (Michigan, Washington, Wisconsin, and Vermont) to understand preferences toward ten broad cider policy initiatives. The results of multinomial logistic modeling reveal that consumers prefer policies mandating ingredients, nutrition facts, and allergen labeling across all ciders. The least preferred policy initiatives include allowing producers to use vintage on labeling and funding regional cider development. These results have important implications for stakeholders across the industry, including the benefits of labeling disclosures in marketing and the need to improve public awareness of barriers to cider industry development.
Converting measurements of ice-sheet surface elevation change to mass change requires measurements of accumulation and knowledge of the evolution of the density profile in the firn. Most firn-densification models are tuned using measured depth–density profiles, a method which is based on an assumption that the density profile in the firn is invariant through time. Here we present continuous measurements of firn-compaction rates in 12 boreholes near the South Pole over a 2 year period. To our knowledge, these are the first continuous measurements of firn compaction on the Antarctic plateau. We use the data to derive a new firn-densification algorithm framed as a constitutive relationship. We also compare our measurements to compaction rates predicted by several existing firn-densification models. Results indicate that an activation energy of 60 kJ mol−1, a value within the range used by current models, best predicts the seasonal cycle in compaction rates on the Antarctic plateau. Our results suggest models can predict firn-compaction rates with at best 7% uncertainty and cumulative firn compaction on a 2 year timescale with at best 8% uncertainty.
Researchers have identified genetic and neural risk factors for externalizing behaviors. However, it has not yet been determined if genetic liability is conferred in part through associations with more proximal neurophysiological risk markers.
Methods
Participants from the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism, a large, family-based study of alcohol use disorders were genotyped and polygenic scores for externalizing (EXT PGS) were calculated. Associations with target P3 amplitude from a visual oddball task (P3) and broad endorsement of externalizing behaviors (indexed via self-report of alcohol and cannabis use, and antisocial behavior) were assessed in participants of European (EA; N = 2851) and African ancestry (AA; N = 1402). Analyses were also stratified by age (adolescents, age 12–17 and young adults, age 18–32).
Results
The EXT PGS was significantly associated with higher levels of externalizing behaviors among EA adolescents and young adults as well as AA young adults. P3 was inversely associated with externalizing behaviors among EA young adults. EXT PGS was not significantly associated with P3 amplitude and therefore, there was no evidence that P3 amplitude indirectly accounted for the association between EXT PGS and externalizing behaviors.
Conclusions
Both the EXT PGS and P3 amplitude were significantly associated with externalizing behaviors among EA young adults. However, these associations with externalizing behaviors appear to be independent of each other, suggesting that they may index different facets of externalizing.
Only a limited number of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) respond to a first course of antidepressant medication (ADM). We investigated the feasibility of creating a baseline model to determine which of these would be among patients beginning ADM treatment in the US Veterans Health Administration (VHA).
Methods
A 2018–2020 national sample of n = 660 VHA patients receiving ADM treatment for MDD completed an extensive baseline self-report assessment near the beginning of treatment and a 3-month self-report follow-up assessment. Using baseline self-report data along with administrative and geospatial data, an ensemble machine learning method was used to develop a model for 3-month treatment response defined by the Quick Inventory of Depression Symptomatology Self-Report and a modified Sheehan Disability Scale. The model was developed in a 70% training sample and tested in the remaining 30% test sample.
Results
In total, 35.7% of patients responded to treatment. The prediction model had an area under the ROC curve (s.e.) of 0.66 (0.04) in the test sample. A strong gradient in probability (s.e.) of treatment response was found across three subsamples of the test sample using training sample thresholds for high [45.6% (5.5)], intermediate [34.5% (7.6)], and low [11.1% (4.9)] probabilities of response. Baseline symptom severity, comorbidity, treatment characteristics (expectations, history, and aspects of current treatment), and protective/resilience factors were the most important predictors.
Conclusions
Although these results are promising, parallel models to predict response to alternative treatments based on data collected before initiating treatment would be needed for such models to help guide treatment selection.
Higher inflammation has been linked to poor physical and mental health outcomes, and mortality, but few studies have rigorously examined whether changes in perceived stress and depressive symptoms are associated with increased inflammation within family caregivers and non-caregivers in a longitudinal design.
Design:
Longitudinal Study.
Setting:
REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke cohort study.
Participants:
Participants included 239 individuals who were not caregivers at baseline but transitioned to providing substantial and sustained caregiving over time. They were initially matched to 241 non-caregiver comparisons on age, sex, race, education, marital status, self-rated health, and history of cardiovascular disease. Blood was drawn at baseline and approximately 9.3 years at follow-up for both groups.
Measurements:
Perceived Stress Scale, Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression, inflammatory biomarkers, including high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, D dimer, tumor necrosis factor alpha receptor 1, interleukin (IL)-2, IL-6, and IL-10 taken at baseline and follow-up.
Results:
Although at follow-up, caregivers showed significantly greater worsening in perceived stress and depressive symptoms compared to non-caregivers, there were few significant associations between depressive symptoms or perceived stress on inflammation for either group. Inflammation, however, was associated with multiple demographic and health variables, including age, race, obesity, and use of medications for hypertension and diabetes for caregivers and non-caregivers.
Conclusions:
These findings illustrate the complexity of studying the associations between stress, depressive symptoms, and inflammation in older adults, where these associations may depend on demographic, disease, and medication effects. Future studies should examine whether resilience factors may prevent increased inflammation in older caregivers.
Fewer than half of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) respond to psychotherapy. Pre-emptively informing patients of their likelihood of responding could be useful as part of a patient-centered treatment decision-support plan.
Methods
This prospective observational study examined a national sample of 807 patients beginning psychotherapy for MDD at the Veterans Health Administration. Patients completed a self-report survey at baseline and 3-months follow-up (data collected 2018–2020). We developed a machine learning (ML) model to predict psychotherapy response at 3 months using baseline survey, administrative, and geospatial variables in a 70% training sample. Model performance was then evaluated in the 30% test sample.
Results
32.0% of patients responded to treatment after 3 months. The best ML model had an AUC (SE) of 0.652 (0.038) in the test sample. Among the one-third of patients ranked by the model as most likely to respond, 50.0% in the test sample responded to psychotherapy. In comparison, among the remaining two-thirds of patients, <25% responded to psychotherapy. The model selected 43 predictors, of which nearly all were self-report variables.
Conclusions
Patients with MDD could pre-emptively be informed of their likelihood of responding to psychotherapy using a prediction tool based on self-report data. This tool could meaningfully help patients and providers in shared decision-making, although parallel information about the likelihood of responding to alternative treatments would be needed to inform decision-making across multiple treatments.
To describe the epidemiology of patients with nonintestinal carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) colonization and to compare clinical outcomes of these patients to those with CRE infection.
Design:
A secondary analysis of Consortium on Resistance Against Carbapenems in Klebsiella and other Enterobacteriaceae 2 (CRACKLE-2), a prospective observational cohort.
Setting:
A total of 49 US short-term acute-care hospitals.
Patients:
Patients hospitalized with CRE isolated from clinical cultures, April, 30, 2016, through August 31, 2017.
Methods:
We described characteristics of patients in CRACKLE-2 with nonintestinal CRE colonization and assessed the impact of site of colonization on clinical outcomes. We then compared outcomes of patients defined as having nonintestinal CRE colonization to all those defined as having infection. The primary outcome was a desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) at 30 days. Secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 90-day readmission.
Results:
Of 547 patients with nonintestinal CRE colonization, 275 (50%) were from the urinary tract, 201 (37%) were from the respiratory tract, and 71 (13%) were from a wound. Patients with urinary tract colonization were more likely to have a more desirable clinical outcome at 30 days than those with respiratory tract colonization, with a DOOR probability of better outcome of 61% (95% confidence interval [CI], 53%–71%). When compared to 255 patients with CRE infection, patients with CRE colonization had a similar overall clinical outcome, as well as 30-day mortality and 90-day readmission rates when analyzed in aggregate or by culture site. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated similar results using different definitions of infection.
Conclusions:
Patients with nonintestinal CRE colonization had outcomes similar to those with CRE infection. Clinical outcomes may be influenced more by culture site than classification as “colonized” or “infected.”
Studying phenotypic and genetic characteristics of age at onset (AAO) and polarity at onset (PAO) in bipolar disorder can provide new insights into disease pathology and facilitate the development of screening tools.
Aims
To examine the genetic architecture of AAO and PAO and their association with bipolar disorder disease characteristics.
Method
Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and polygenic score (PGS) analyses of AAO (n = 12 977) and PAO (n = 6773) were conducted in patients with bipolar disorder from 34 cohorts and a replication sample (n = 2237). The association of onset with disease characteristics was investigated in two of these cohorts.
Results
Earlier AAO was associated with a higher probability of psychotic symptoms, suicidality, lower educational attainment, not living together and fewer episodes. Depressive onset correlated with suicidality and manic onset correlated with delusions and manic episodes. Systematic differences in AAO between cohorts and continents of origin were observed. This was also reflected in single-nucleotide variant-based heritability estimates, with higher heritabilities for stricter onset definitions. Increased PGS for autism spectrum disorder (β = −0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), major depression (β = −0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), schizophrenia (β = −0.39 years, s.e. = 0.08), and educational attainment (β = −0.31 years, s.e. = 0.08) were associated with an earlier AAO. The AAO GWAS identified one significant locus, but this finding did not replicate. Neither GWAS nor PGS analyses yielded significant associations with PAO.
Conclusions
AAO and PAO are associated with indicators of bipolar disorder severity. Individuals with an earlier onset show an increased polygenic liability for a broad spectrum of psychiatric traits. Systematic differences in AAO across cohorts, continents and phenotype definitions introduce significant heterogeneity, affecting analyses.
While technology is beneficial in many ways for organizations, it also allows employees a plethora of new methods to engage in workplace mistreatment and other counterproductive work behavior (CWB). Thus, technology’s role in the changing nature of work includes contributing to deleterious organizational and employee wellbeing outcomes. This chapter focuses on newer cyber-CWB and cyber occupational health psychology (C-OHP) constructs that lead to these negative workplace effects, including cyber incivility, cyberbullying, cyberloafing, and cybersecurity behaviors. The extant literature in this nascent area suggests that many of these behaviors occur on a frequent basis in today’s workplace, and we provide recommendations to lessen the occurrence of C-CWB and C-OHP behaviors. We also discuss potential drawbacks of commonly employed deterrents of these behaviors, such as social media screening and workplace monitoring.
Accurately diagnosing urinary tract infections (UTIs) in hospitalized patients remains challenging, requiring correlation of frequently nonspecific symptoms and laboratory findings. Urine cultures (UCs) are often ordered indiscriminately, especially in patients with urinary catheters, despite the Infectious Diseases Society of America guidelines recommending against routine screening for asymptomatic bacteriuria (ASB).1,2 Positive UCs can be difficult for providers to ignore, leading to unnecessary antibiotic treatment of ASB.2,3 Using diagnostic stewardship to limit UCs to situations with a positive urinalysis (UA) can reduce inappropriate UCs since the absence of pyuria suggests the absence of infection.4–6 We assessed the impact of the implementation of a UA with reflex to UC algorithm (“reflex intervention”) on UC ordering practices, diagnostic efficiency, and UTIs using a quasi-experimental design.
Studies suggest that alcohol consumption and alcohol use disorders have distinct genetic backgrounds.
Methods
We examined whether polygenic risk scores (PRS) for consumption and problem subscales of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-C, AUDIT-P) in the UK Biobank (UKB; N = 121 630) correlate with alcohol outcomes in four independent samples: an ascertained cohort, the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA; N = 6850), and population-based cohorts: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; N = 5911), Generation Scotland (GS; N = 17 461), and an independent subset of UKB (N = 245 947). Regression models and survival analyses tested whether the PRS were associated with the alcohol-related outcomes.
Results
In COGA, AUDIT-P PRS was associated with alcohol dependence, AUD symptom count, maximum drinks (R2 = 0.47–0.68%, p = 2.0 × 10−8–1.0 × 10−10), and increased likelihood of onset of alcohol dependence (hazard ratio = 1.15, p = 4.7 × 10−8); AUDIT-C PRS was not an independent predictor of any phenotype. In ALSPAC, the AUDIT-C PRS was associated with alcohol dependence (R2 = 0.96%, p = 4.8 × 10−6). In GS, AUDIT-C PRS was a better predictor of weekly alcohol use (R2 = 0.27%, p = 5.5 × 10−11), while AUDIT-P PRS was more associated with problem drinking (R2 = 0.40%, p = 9.0 × 10−7). Lastly, AUDIT-P PRS was associated with ICD-based alcohol-related disorders in the UKB subset (R2 = 0.18%, p < 2.0 × 10−16).
Conclusions
AUDIT-P PRS was associated with a range of alcohol-related phenotypes across population-based and ascertained cohorts, while AUDIT-C PRS showed less utility in the ascertained cohort. We show that AUDIT-P is genetically correlated with both use and misuse and demonstrate the influence of ascertainment schemes on PRS analyses.
Major depressive disorder and neuroticism (Neu) share a large genetic basis. We sought to determine whether this shared basis could be decomposed to identify genetic factors that are specific to depression.
Methods
We analysed summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of depression (from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, 23andMe and UK Biobank) and compared them with GWAS of Neu (from UK Biobank). First, we used a pairwise GWAS analysis to classify variants as associated with only depression, with only Neu or with both. Second, we estimated partial genetic correlations to test whether the depression's genetic link with other phenotypes was explained by shared overlap with Neu.
Results
We found evidence that most genomic regions (25/37) associated with depression are likely to be shared with Neu. The overlapping common genetic variance of depression and Neu was genetically correlated primarily with psychiatric disorders. We found that the genetic contributions to depression, that were not shared with Neu, were positively correlated with metabolic phenotypes and cardiovascular disease, and negatively correlated with the personality trait conscientiousness. After removing shared genetic overlap with Neu, depression still had a specific association with schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, coronary artery disease and age of first birth. Independent of depression, Neu had specific genetic correlates in ulcerative colitis, pubertal growth, anorexia and education.
Conclusion
Our findings demonstrate that, while genetic risk factors for depression are largely shared with Neu, there are also non-Neu-related features of depression that may be useful for further patient or phenotypic stratification.
After five positive randomized controlled trials showed benefit of mechanical thrombectomy in the management of acute ischemic stroke with emergent large-vessel occlusion, a multi-society meeting was organized during the 17th Congress of the World Federation of Interventional and Therapeutic Neuroradiology in October 2017 in Budapest, Hungary. This multi-society meeting was dedicated to establish standards of practice in acute ischemic stroke intervention aiming for a consensus on the minimum requirements for centers providing such treatment. In an ideal situation, all patients would be treated at a center offering a full spectrum of neuroendovascular care (a level 1 center). However, for geographical reasons, some patients are unable to reach such a center in a reasonable period of time. With this in mind, the group paid special attention to define recommendations on the prerequisites of organizing stroke centers providing medical thrombectomy for acute ischemic stroke, but not for other neurovascular diseases (level 2 centers). Finally, some centers will have a stroke unit and offer intravenous thrombolysis, but not any endovascular stroke therapy (level 3 centers). Together, these level 1, 2, and 3 centers form a complete stroke system of care. The multi-society group provides recommendations and a framework for the development of medical thrombectomy services worldwide.
Breakthrough Listen is a 10-yr initiative to search for signatures of technologies created by extraterrestrial civilisations at radio and optical wavelengths. Here, we detail the digital data recording system deployed for Breakthrough Listen observations at the 64-m aperture CSIRO Parkes Telescope in New South Wales, Australia. The recording system currently implements two modes: a dual-polarisation, 1.125-GHz bandwidth mode for single-beam observations, and a 26-input, 308-MHz bandwidth mode for the 21-cm multibeam receiver. The system is also designed to support a 3-GHz single-beam mode for the forthcoming Parkes ultra-wideband feed. In this paper, we present details of the system architecture, provide an overview of hardware and software, and present initial performance results.
Enhanced odor sensitivity, particularly toward threat-related cues, may be adaptive during periods of danger. Research also suggests that chronic psychological distress may lead to functional changes in the olfactory system that cause heightened sensitivity to odors. Yet, the association between self-reported odor sensitivity, objective odor detection, and affective psychopathology is currently unclear, and research suggests that persons with affective problems may only be sensitive to specific, threat-related odors.
Methods
The current study compared adults with self-reported odor sensitivity that was described as functionally impairing (OSI; n = 32) to those who reported odor sensitivity that was non-impairing (OS; n = 17) on affective variables as well as quantitative odor detection.
Results
Increased anxiety sensitivity, trait anxiety, depression, and life stress, even while controlling for comorbid anxiety and depressive disorders, was found for OSI compared to OS. While OSI, compared to OS, demonstrated only a trend increase in objective odor detection of a smoke-like, but not rose-like, odor, further analysis revealed that increased detection of that smoke-like odor was positively correlated with anxiety sensitivity.
Conclusion
These findings suggest that persons with various forms of psychological distress may find themselves significantly impaired by an intolerance of odors, but that self-reported odor sensitivity does not necessarily relate to enhanced odor detection ability. However, increased sensitivity to a smoke-like odor appears to be associated with sensitivity to aversive anxiogenic stimuli. Implications for the pathophysiology of fear- and anxiety-related disorders are discussed.