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We live in a time of significant global risk. Some research has focused on understanding systemic sources of this risk, while other research has focused on possible worst-case outcomes. In this article, we bring together these two areas of research and provide a simple conceptual framework that shows how emergent features of the global system contribute to the risk of global catastrophe.
Technical summary
Humanity faces a complex and dangerous global risk landscape, and many different terms and concepts have been used to make sense of it. One broad strand of research characterises how risk emerges within the complex global system, using concepts like systemic risk, Anthropocene risk, synchronous failure, negative social tipping points, and polycrisis. Another focuses on possible worst-case outcomes, using concepts like global catastrophic risk (GCR), existential risk, and extinction risk. Despite their clear relevance to each other, connections between these two strands remain limited. Here, we provide a simple conceptual framework that synthesises these research strands and shows how emergent properties of the global system contribute to the risk of global catastrophic outcomes. In particular, we show that much of GCR stems from the interaction of hazards and vulnerabilities that arise endogenously within the global system, and how ‘systems thinking’ and complex adaptive systems theory can help illuminate this. We also highlight some unique challenges that systemic sources of GCR pose for risk assessment and mitigation, discuss insights for policy, and outline potential paths forward.
Social media summary
The global system is generating global catastrophic risk.
Changes in abundance and distribution of marine top predators can indicate environmental change or anthropogenic pressure requiring management response. Here, we used an extensive dataset (21 years) to conduct a spatial and temporal analysis of grey seal strandings in Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly, close to the southern edge of the breeding range of the species. A total of 2007 strandings were reported from 2000 to 2020, increasing by 474% from 35 to 201 individuals per year during this period. The continued rise in strandings was consistent across all life stages and timeframes (5, 10 and 20 years), underpinning the suggestion of increasing abundance in the region. The observed seasonality differed by life stage, coinciding with the increased presence of animals near the coast for key life phases such as breeding, moulting and pupping. Strandings are widely distributed across the coast of Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly; however, most strandings were recorded on the north coast of Cornwall (70%) where major pupping and haul out sites are found. Despite hosting several pupping and haul out sites, a small proportion was recorded on the Isles of Scilly (5%) where it is thought that strandings are particularly underreported. Describing baselines in magnitude of strandings and life-stage compositions across space and time allows future deviations in frequency, demographic composition or spatial distribution to be detected and investigated. We demonstrate the utility of long-term citizen science data to provide valuable and cost-effective information on the distribution and abundance of a highly mobile marine mammal.
Communicating evidence that a policy is effective can increase public support although the effects are small. In the context of policies to increase healthier eating in out-of-home restaurants, we investigate two ways of presenting evidence for a policy's effectiveness: (i) visualising and (ii) re-expressing evidence into a more interpretable form. We conducted an online experiment in which participants were randomly allocated to one of five groups. We used a 2 (text only vs visualisation) × 2 (no re-expression vs re-expression) design with one control group. Participants (n = 4500) representative of the English population were recruited. The primary outcome was perceived effectiveness and the secondary outcome was public support. Evidence of effectiveness increased perceptions of effectiveness (d = 0.14, p < 0.001). There was no evidence that visualising, or re-expressing, changed perceptions of effectiveness (respectively, d = 0.02, p = 0.605; d = −0.02, p = 0.507). Policy support increased with evidence but this was not statistically significant after Bonferroni adjustment (d = 0.08, p = 0.034, α = 0.006). In conclusion, communicating evidence of policy effectiveness increased perceptions that the policy was effective. Neither visualising nor re-expressing evidence increased perceived effectiveness of policies more than merely stating in text that the policy was effective.
Extreme silver enrichment at the surface of the complex sulphide, tennantite (ideal formula: Cu12As4S13), occurs following exposure to alkaline solutions, and involves the development of an Ag-rich sulphide surface species. The tennantite has a low bulk Ag content of 0.3 at.%, and a percentage surface enrichment of Ag is thirty-six times that of the bulk. The techniques of X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and reflection extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy show the new phase to be a Ag sulphide species compositionally similar to cupriferous proustite ((Cu,Ag)3AsS3). Solution experiments and XPS depth profiling show that the surface is most depleted in Cu and Zn, and enriched in Ag compared to the bulk tennantite. Selective dissolution and reprecipitation at the tennantite surface cannot explain the enrichment of Ag relative to the bulk. Migration must have occurred and could have been driven by the leaching out of Cu which produces a metal-depleted surface, coupled to the relative incompatibility of Ag in the tennantite lattice. To account for the extreme enrichment at the surface, Ag must have diffused from depths of up to 9 nm, probably via structural weaknesses and vacancies in the tennantite lattice.
Otitis externa is a common presentation to secondary care otolaryngology clinics. Despite this, few studies have investigated the microbiology and antimicrobial resistance of otitis externa. This study aimed to examine these issues.
Methods:
Analysis identified 302 swabs taken from 217 patients (100 male, 117 female), between 1 January 2015 and 30 March 2016, at our rapid access otolaryngology clinic.
Results:
In total, 315 organisms were isolated; the most frequent was Pseudomonas aeruginosa (31.1 per cent), followed by candida species (22.9 per cent) and Staphylococcus aureus (11.7 per cent). P aeruginosa was sensitive to ciprofloxacin in 97.7 per cent of cases and to gentamicin in 78.4 per cent.
Conclusion:
Compared with studies worldwide, the relative proportions of different organisms causing otitis externa and the patterns of antimicrobial resistance differ. Increasing resistance of P aeruginosa to aminoglycosides demonstrates a changing pattern of antimicrobial resistance that has not been previously reported. Reassuringly, quinolone antibiotics remain highly effective when treating P aeruginosa.
Building Management Systems and Home Automation are, at present, active areas of research and development. One of the unsolved problems within this field is that of Occupant Location within a premises. Computer vision systems are, as yet, too expensive and still not entirely adequate to monitor occupation from every room in a building. The use of existing movement sensors is a cost effective solution but has the disadvantages of not detecting people who are stationary for some time, or giving any indication of how many people are in a room.
This paper addresses the problem of using the collaborative sum of these simple movement sensors in a temporal reasoning scheme to deduce room occupation.
Understanding the dietary needs of syntopic species is essential for examining species coexistence and resource partitioning. We analysed stable isotopes of carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) to estimate the diet of two putative nectarivorous bats on Puerto Rico, the brown flower bat (Erophylla bombifrons) and the Greater Antillean long-tongued bat (Monophyllus redmani). Isotopic ratios of δ13C and δ15N were obtained from whole blood of both species of bat and tissues of available plant foods and insect prey over 15 wk at the same locality. We used a concentration-dependent Bayesian mixing model to determine probability distributions of feasible dietary contributions for major potential foods used by each species of bat. Additionally, separate dietary estimates were conducted for males and non-reproductive, pregnant and lactating females to determine differences due to reproductive condition. Insects were an important source of protein for M. redmani, whereas E. bombifrons obtained most of its protein from plants. In both species of bat, lactating females had lower assimilated nitrogen than males, suggesting more reliance on plants for protein. We observed no intraspecific differences in assimilated carbon among reproductive conditions. Flight and lactation are energetically expensive and may explain the increased consumption of high-energy foods, such as fruit or nectar, in lactating female bats. Comparison of isotopes between E. bombifrons and M. redmani illustrate the differential use of food resources by these insular syntopic species of bat.
Coral reef ecosystems have great importance for the countries of the Wider Caribbean Region in terms of both use and non-use values and services. Several of the contributors to this symposium attest to their importance for fisheries and biodiversity (see Ehrhardt et al. in Chapter 11; Appeldoorn in Chapter 10; Appeldoorn et al. in Chapter 12; Horrocks et al. in Chapter 9). Coral reef ecosystems support livelihoods (see McConney and Salas in Chapter 7) and provide critical ecosystem services (Schuhmann et al. in Chapter 8) including for tourism, although this aspect of their value is not developed in detail in Chapter 8. Caribbean coral reef ecosystems have been degraded by many human impacts of both marine and land-based origin (see Sweeney and Corbin in Chapter 4; Gil and Wells in Chapter 5; Yáñez-Arancibia et al. in Chapter 17). They are among the most complex and biologically diverse marine ecosystems, and will require a holistic ecosystem- based approach for their conservation and sustainable use.
This synthesis chapter presents the outputs of a group process aimed at developing a vision and way ahead for ecosystem-based management (EBM) for coral reef ecosystems in the Wider Caribbean, using the methods described earlier (Fanning et al. in Chapter 1). The chapter first describes a vision for coral reef EBM and reports on the priorities assigned to the identified vision elements. It then discusses how the vision might be achieved by taking into account assisting factors (those that facilitate achievement) and resisting factors (those that inhibit achievement). The chapter concludes with guidance on the strategic direction needed to implement the vision, identifying specific actions to be undertaken for each of the vision elements.
The Vision
The occupational breakdown of members of the Coral Reef Ecosystems Working Group reflected the diversity of affiliations present at the EBM Symposium and included governmental, intergovernmental, academic, non-governmental and private sector (fishers and fishing industry and consulting) representatives. With guidance provided by the facilitator, this diverse group of participants was asked to first address the question of “What do you see in place in 10 years’ time when EBM/EAF has become a reality in the Caribbean?”
The third edition of this highly acclaimed undergraduate textbook is suitable for teaching all the mathematics for an undergraduate course in any of the physical sciences. As well as lucid descriptions of all the topics and many worked examples, it contains over 800 exercises. New stand-alone chapters give a systematic account of the 'special functions' of physical science, cover an extended range of practical applications of complex variables, and give an introduction to quantum operators. Further tabulations, of relevance in statistics and numerical integration, have been added. In this edition, half of the exercises are provided with hints and answers and, in a separate manual available to both students and their teachers, complete worked solutions. The remaining exercises have no hints, answers or worked solutions and can be used for unaided homework; full solutions are available to instructors on a password-protected web site, www.cambridge.org/9780521679718.
The new edition of this highly acclaimed textbook contains several major additions, including more than four hundred new exercises (with hints and answers). To match the mathematical preparation of current senior college and university entrants, the authors have included a preliminary chapter covering areas such as polynomial equations, trigonometric identities, coordinate geometry, partial fractions, binomial expansions, induction, and the proof of necessary and sufficient conditions. Elsewhere, matrix decompositions, nearly-singular matrices and non-square sets of linear equations are treated in detail. The presentation of probability has been reorganised and greatly extended, and includes all physically important distributions. New topics covered in a separate statistics chapter include estimator efficiency, distributions of samples, t- and F-tests for comparing means and variances, applications of the chi-squared distribution, and maximum likelihood and least-squares fitting. In other chapters the following topics have been added: linear recurrence relations, curvature, envelopes, curve-sketching, and more refined numerical methods.
To report a case series of elective removal of bone-anchored hearing aid implants, and reasons for removal.
Design:
Retrospective review of a prospectively collected database.
Setting:
Two tertiary referral centres in the Manchester area: Manchester Royal Infirmary and Salford Royal University Hospital.
Participants:
A series of 499 adults and children who had undergone a total of 602 implant insertions (1984–2008).
Main outcome measures:
Implant removal rates, and reasons.
Results:
Twenty-seven of the 602 implants (4.5 per cent) required removal. Of these, 12 were due to pain (2.0 per cent), seven to persistent infection (1.2 per cent), three to failure of osseointegration (0.5 per cent), three to trauma (0.5 per cent) and two to other reasons (0.4 per cent).
Conclusion:
Chronic implant site pain represents the main reason why implants are removed electively, and affects 2 per cent of all implants. This complication has important medico-legal implications and should be discussed when obtaining informed consent for implantation.
To develop a virtual-reality subtotal tonsillectomy simulation for surgical training.
Materials and Methods:
Computer models of a male patient's head and throat, and the surgical instrument, were created. These models were combined with custom-built simulation software. Recently developed tissue simulation technology that exploits recent developments in programmable graphics processing units was used to model tonsillar tissue in a way that allows surgical interaction whilst providing accurate tactile feedback. Current real-time rendering techniques were used to provide realistic visuals. Iterative refinements were made to the simulation, and in particular the tissue simulation, in consultation with relevantly experienced surgeons.
Results:
We have used newly developed tissue simulation technology to developed a novel virtual-reality subtotal tonsillectomy simulation for surgical training, the first of its kind.
Conclusion:
Early feedback suggests that this simulator can help surgeons to rapidly acquire subtotal tonsillectomy surgical skills in a risk-free and realistic virtual environment.
Sleep and dream research are truly foundational to psychiatry, and history reflects how psychiatry has struggled to come to terms with mind versus brain dualism. Stimulated by speculative dynamic neurologists like Pierre Janet and Jean-Marie Charcot, Sigmund Freud created psychoanalysis in the same period Kraepelin and Bleuler labored. Of central importance to Freud's theory was his view of dreaming as an unconsciousmental process by which dreamers could bowdlerize unacceptable unconscious wishes that threatened to invade consciousness and awaken them. By preventing subjects from entering REM with enforced awakenings, William Dement and Charles Fisher theorized they could prevent dreaming and thus cause psychological distress in their subjects. By the mid-1970s, experimental dream laboratories were failing, but modern sleep medicine was burgeoning. As the reciprocal interaction and activation-synthesis hypotheses evolved, they metamorphosed into the 'activation level, input source, and mode of processing' (AIM) model based on findings in sleep and dream research. sleep medicine, psychiatry, REM sleep, dream deprivation, AIM model, dream consciousness