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Bayesian statistical approaches are extensively used in new statistical methods but have not been adopted at the same rate in clinical and translational (C&T) research. The goal of this paper is to accelerate the transition of new methods into practice by improving the C&T researcher’s ability to gain confidence in interpreting and implementing Bayesian analyses.
Methods:
We developed a Bayesian data analysis plan and implemented that plan for a two-arm clinical trial comparing the effectiveness of a new opioid in reducing time to discharge from the post-operative anesthesia unit and nerve block usage in surgery. Through this application, we offer a brief tutorial on Bayesian methods and exhibit how to apply four Bayesian statistical packages from STATA, SAS, and RStan to conduct linear and logistic regression analyses in clinical research.
Results:
The analysis results in our application were robust to statistical package and consistent across a wide range of prior distributions. STATA was the most approachable package for linear regression but was more limited in the models that could be fitted and easily summarized. SAS and R offered more straightforward documentation and data management for the posteriors. They also offered direct programming of the likelihood making them more easily extendable to complex problems.
Conclusion:
Bayesian analysis is now accessible to a broad range of data analysts and should be considered in more C&T research analyses. This will allow C&T research teams the ability to adopt and interpret Bayesian methodology in more complex problems where Bayesian approaches are often needed.
Unusual speleothems, associated with hyperalkaline (pH > 12) groundwaters have formed within a shallow, abandoned railway tunnel at Peak Dale, Derbyshire, UK. The hyperalkaline groundwaters are produced by the leaching of a thin layer (<2 m) of old lime-kiln waste on the soil-bedrock surface above the tunnel by rainwater. This results in a different reaction and chemical process to that more commonly associated with the formation of calcium carbonate speleothems from Ca-HCO3-type groundwaters and degassing of CO2. Stalagmites within the Peak Daletunnel have grown rapidly (averaging 33 mm y–1), following the closure of the tunnel 70 years ago. They have an unusual morphology comprising a central sub-horizontally-laminated column of micro- to nano-crystalline calcium carbonate encompassed by an outer sub-vertical assymetricripple-laminated layer. The stalagmites are composed largely of secondary calcite forming pseudomorphs (<1 mm) that we believe to be predominantly after the 'cold climate' calcium carbonate polymorph, ikaite (calcium carbonate hexahydrate: CaCO3·6H2O), withminor volumes of small (<5 μm) pseudomorphs after vaterite. The tunnel has a near constant temperature of 8–9°C, which is slightly above the previously published crystallization temperatures for ikaite (<6°C). Analysis of a stalagmite actively growing at the time ofsampling, and preserved immediately within a dry nitrogen cryogenic vessel, indicates that following crystallization of ikaite, decomposition to calcite occurs rapidly, if not instantaneously. We believe this is the first occurrence of this calcium carbonate polymorph observed within speleothems.
Escherichia coli O157 are zoonotic bacteria for which cattle are an important reservoir. Prevalence estimates for E. coli O157 in British cattle for human consumption are over 10 years old. A new baseline is needed to inform current human health risk. The British E. coli O157 in Cattle Study (BECS) ran between September 2014 and November 2015 on 270 farms across Scotland and England & Wales. This is the first study to be conducted contemporaneously across Great Britain, thus enabling comparison between Scotland and England & Wales. Herd-level prevalence estimates for E. coli O157 did not differ significantly for Scotland (0·236, 95% CI 0·166–0·325) and England & Wales (0·213, 95% CI 0·156–0·283) (P = 0·65). The majority of isolates were verocytotoxin positive. A higher proportion of samples from Scotland were in the super-shedder category, though there was no difference between the surveys in the likelihood of a positive farm having at least one super-shedder sample. E. coli O157 continues to be common in British beef cattle, reaffirming public health policy that contact with cattle and their environments is a potential infection source.
The subsurface exploration of other planetary bodies can be used to unravel their geological history and assess their habitability. On Mars in particular, present-day habitable conditions may be restricted to the subsurface. Using a deep subsurface mine, we carried out a program of extraterrestrial analog research – MINe Analog Research (MINAR). MINAR aims to carry out the scientific study of the deep subsurface and test instrumentation designed for planetary surface exploration by investigating deep subsurface geology, whilst establishing the potential this technology has to be transferred into the mining industry. An integrated multi-instrument suite was used to investigate samples of representative evaporite minerals from a subsurface Permian evaporite sequence, in particular to assess mineral and elemental variations which provide small-scale regions of enhanced habitability. The instruments used were the Panoramic Camera emulator, Close-Up Imager, Raman spectrometer, Small Planetary Linear Impulse Tool, Ultrasonic drill and handheld X-ray diffraction (XRD). We present science results from the analog research and show that these instruments can be used to investigate in situ the geological context and mineralogical variations of a deep subsurface environment, and thus habitability, from millimetre to metre scales. We also show that these instruments are complementary. For example, the identification of primary evaporite minerals such as NaCl and KCl, which are difficult to detect by portable Raman spectrometers, can be accomplished with XRD. By contrast, Raman is highly effective at locating and detecting mineral inclusions in primary evaporite minerals. MINAR demonstrates the effective use of a deep subsurface environment for planetary instrument development, understanding the habitability of extreme deep subsurface environments on Earth and other planetary bodies, and advancing the use of space technology in economic mining.
Self-reported health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is an important predictor of survival alongside clinical variables and physicians' prediction. This study assessed whether better prediction is achieved using generic (SF-36) HRQoL measures or cancer-specific (EORTC QLQ-C30) measures that include symptoms.
Method:
Fifty-four lung and 46 colorectal patients comprised the sample. Ninety-four died before study conclusion. EORTC QLQ-C30 and SF-36 scores and demographic and clinical information were collected at baseline. Follow-up was 5 years. Deaths were flagged by the Office of National Statistics. Cox regression survival analyses were conducted. Surviving cases were censored in the analysis.
Results:
Univariate analyses showed that survival was significantly associated with better EORTC QLQ-C30 physical functioning, role functioning, and global health and less dyspnea and appetite loss. For the SF-36, survival was significantly associated with better emotional role functioning, general health, energy/vitality, and social functioning. The SF-36 summary score for mental health was significantly related to better survival, whereas the SF-36 summary score for physical health was not. In the multivariate analysis, only the SF-36 mental health summary score remained an independent, significant predictor, mainly due to considerable intercorrelations between HRQoL scales. However, models combining the SF-36 mental health summary score with diagnosis explained a similar amount of variance (12%–13%) as models combining diagnosis with single scale SF-36 Energy/Vitality or EORTC QLQ-C30 Appetite Loss.
Significance of results:
HRQoL contributes significantly to prediction of survival. Generic measures are at least as useful as disease-specific measures including symptoms. Intercorrelations between HRQoL variables and between HRQoL and clinical variables makes it difficult to identify prime predictors. We need to identify variables that are as independent of each other as possible to maximize predictive power and produce more consistent results.
As part of a longitudinal study of diet and dental caries, 405 Northumberland children initially aged 11–12 years recorded the time of going to bed on 3 consecutive days on 5 occasions over a 23-month period. The bedtimes were recorded in a personal diary and checked at private interview. Mean bedtime for the 212 females changed from 21 hr 44 min at age 11 years 7 months to 22 hr 11 min at age 13 years 3 months. Bedtime for the 193 males was, on average, 9 min later than that for the females. There was a consistent relation between bedtime and social class, with social class IV + V children going to bed, on average, 14 min later than social class I + II children. When the average age of the children was 13 years 3 months, 13% of them went to bed at or after 23.00 hr, and they were latest to bed on Saturday when their average bedtime was 22 hr 59 min.
Major advances in our understanding of the Universe have historically come from dramatic improvements in our ability to accurately measure astronomical quantities. The astrometric observations obtained by modern digital sky surveys are enabling unprecedentedly massive and robust studies of the kinematics of the Milky Way. For example, the astrometric data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), together with half a century old astrometry from the Palomar Observatory Sky Survey (POSS), have enabled the construction of a catalog that includes absolute proper motions as accurate as 3 mas/year for about 20 million stars brighter than V=20, and for 80,000 spectroscopically confirmed quasars which provide exquisite error assessment. We discuss here several ongoing studies of Milky Way kinematics based on this catalog. The upcoming next-generation surveys will maintain this revolutionary progress. For example, we show using realistic simulations that the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will measure proper motions accurate to 1 mas/year to a limit 4 magnitude fainter than possible with SDSS and POSS catalogs, or with the Gaia survey. LSST will also obtain geometric parallaxes with accuracy similar to Gaia's at its faint end (0.3 mas at V=20), and extend them to V=24 with an accuracy of 3 mas. We discuss the impact that these LSST measurements will have on studies of the Milky Way kinematics, and potential synergies with the Gaia survey.
Dietary surveys of 11- to 12-year-old Northumbrian children in 1980 and 1990 revealed that consumption of non-milk extrinsic sugars (NMES) was 16–17% of energy intake. This study reports dietary sugars consumption in 2000 and compares it with data collected in 1980 and 1990, using identical methods.
Design
A repeat cross-sectional dietary survey of children aged 11–12 years attending the same schools as in the 1980 and 1990 surveys.
Setting
Seven middle schools in south Northumberland.
Subjects
All children aged 11–12 years old attending the seven schools.
Method
Food consumption was recorded using two 3-day diet diaries. Food composition tables were used to calculate energy and nutrient intakes. NMES, and milk and intrinsic sugars were calculated using previously described methods.
Results
The numbers of children completing the surveys in 1980, 1990 and 2000 were 405, 379 and 424, respectively; ~60–70% of eligible children. Total sugars provided 22% of energy consistently over the three surveys. NMES consumption in 2000 provided 16% of energy compared with 16% in 1980 and 17% in 1990. Sources of NMES changed over the three surveys. NMES from soft drinks doubled from 15 to 31 g day− 1, and from breakfast cereals increased from 2 to 7 g day− 1 over the 20 years. Confectionery and soft drinks provided 61% of NMES. Over 20 years, the proportion of energy from fat decreased by 5% and from starch increased by 4%, creating a welcome tilt in the fat–starch see-saw, without an adverse effect on sugars intake.
Conclusions
Consumption of NMES in 2000 was substantially higher than recommended, and there has been little change over 20 years. Continued and coordinated efforts are required at a national, community and individual level to reduce the intake of NMES.
Mathematical models are constructed to investigate the population dynamics of Verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) serogroups O26 and O103 in two different calf cohorts. We compare the epidemiological characteristics of these two serogroups within the same calf cohort as well as the same serogroups between the two calf cohorts. The sources of infection are quantified for both calf cohort studies. VTEC serogroups O26 and O103 mainly differ in the rate at which calves acquire infection from sources other than infected calves, while infected calves typically remain infectious for less than 1 week regardless of the serogroups. Fewer than 20% of VTEC-positive samples are the result of calf-to-calf transmission. PFGE typing data are available for VTEC-positive samples to further subdivide the serogroup data in one of the two calf cohort studies. For serogroup O26 but not O103, there is evidence for unequal environmental exposure to infection with different PFGE types.
The prevalence of Escherichia coli O157 displays striking variability across the Scottish cattle population. On 78% of farms, in a cross-sectional survey of 952, no shedding of E. coli O157 was detected, but on a small proportion, ∼2%, very high prevalences of infection were found (with 90–100% of pats sampled being positive). We ask whether this variation arises from the inherent stochasticity in transmission dynamics or whether it is a signature of underlying heterogeneities in the cattle population. A novel approach is taken whereby the cross-sectional data are viewed as providing independent snapshots of a dynamic process. Using maximum-likelihood methods to fit time-dependent epidemiological models to the data we obtain estimates for the rates of immigration and transmission of E. coli O157 infection – parameters which have not been previously quantified in the literature. A comparison of alternative model fits reveals that the variation in the prevalence data is best explained when a proportion of the cattle are assumed to transmit infection at much higher levels than the rest – the so-called super-shedders. Analysis of a second dataset, comprising samples taken from 32 farms at monthly intervals over a period of 1 year, additionally yields an estimate for the rate of recovery from infection. The pattern of prevalence displayed in the second dataset also strongly supports the super-shedder hypothesis.
In Scotland, between 1995 and 2000 there were between 4 and 10 cases of illness per 100000 population per year identified as being caused by Escherichia coli O157, whereas in England and Wales there were between 1 and 2 cases per 100000 population per year. Within Scotland there is significant regional variation. A cluster of high rate areas was identified in the Northeast of Scotland and a cluster of low rate areas in central-west Scotland. Temporal trends follow a seasonal pattern whilst spatial effects appeared to be distant rather than local. The best-fit model identified a significant spatial trend with case rate increasing from West to East, and from South to North. No statistically significant spatial interaction term was found. In the models fitted, the cattle population density, the human population density, and the number of cattle per person were variously significant. The findings suggest that rural/urban exposures are important in sporadic infections.
We investigate the epidemiology of 12 Verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) serogroups observed in a calf cohort on a Scottish beef farm. Fitting mathematical models to the observed time-course of infections reveals that there is significant calf-to-calf transmission of VTEC. Our models suggest that 40% of all detected infections are from calf-to-calf transmission and 60% from other sources. Variation in the rates at which infected animals recover from infection by different VTEC serogroups appears to be important. Two thirds of the observed VTEC serogroups are lost from infected calves within 1 day of infection, while the rest persist for more than 3 days. Our study has demonstrated that VTEC are transmissible between calves and are typically lost from infected animals in less than 1 week. We suggest that future field studies may wish to adopt a tighter sampling frame in order to detect all circulating VTEC serogroups in similar animal populations.
Monitoring adolescent diets over time enables the assessment of the effectiveness of public health messages which are particularly important in vulnerable groups such as adolescents. In 2000, 424 children aged 11–12 years old completed two 3 d estimated dietary records. On the fourth day one nutritionist interviewed each child to clarify the information in the diary and foods were quantified with the aid of food models. Nutrient intake was calculated using computerised food tables. These children attended the same seven schools in the same Northumberland area as the 11- to 12-year-old children who recorded their diet using the same method in 1980 (n 405) and 1990 (n 379), respectively. Height and weight, and parental occupation were recorded in all three surveys for each child. Height and weight were used to calculate BMI, weight was used to estimate BMR and parental occupation was used to determine social class. Comparing the macronutrient intakes in 2000 with 1980 and 1990, energy intakes (EI) fell in boys (to 8·45 MJ) and girls (to 7·60 MJ). This fall may, at least in part, be due to an increase in low energy reporting. For 1980, 1990 and 2000 the percentage of boys with EI:BMR below 1·1 was 6, 15 and 23%, respectively; for girls, 3, 14 and 18%, respectively. Percentage energy from fat was unchanged between 1980 and 1990 but fell to 35% (about 76 g/d) in 2000, alongside a 3% increase in percentage energy from starch (30%). Percentage energy from non-milk extrinsic sugars remained above recommendations (16%; about 82 g/d). The number of overweight and obese children increased from 11% to 30% between 1980 and 2000. Positive changes have occurred in the Northumbrian adolescent diet but social inequalities, reported in previous surveys, remain.
We analyze the properties of quasar variability using repeated SDSS imaging data in five UV-to-far red photometric bands, accurate to 0.02 mag, for ∼13,000 spectroscopically confirmed quasars. The observed time lags span the range from 3 hours to over 3 years, and constrain the quasar variability for rest-frame time lags of up to two years, and at rest-frame wavelengths from 1000Å to 6000Å. We demonstrate that ∼66,000 SDSS measurements of magnitude differences can be described within the measurement noise by a simple function of only three free parameters. The addition of POSS data constrains the long-term behavior of quasar variability and provides evidence for a turn-over in the structure function. This turn-over indicates that the characteristic time scale for optical variability of quasars is of the order 1 year.To search for other articles by the author(s) go to: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html
We summarize the detection rates at wavelengths other than optical for ∼99,000 galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 1 “main” spectroscopic sample. The analysis is based on positional cross-correlation with source catalogs from ROSAT, 2MASS, IRAS, GB6, FIRST, NVSS and WENSS surveys. We find that the rest-frame UV-IR broad-band galaxy SEDs form a remarkably uniform, nearly one parameter, family. As an example, the SDSS u and r band data, supplemented with redshift, can be used to predict K band magnitudes measured by 2MASS with an rms scatter of only 0.2 mag; when measurement uncertainties are taken into account, the astrophysical scatter appears not larger than ∼0.1 mag.To search for other articles by the author(s) go to: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html
Investigations of culling and particularly involuntary culling (“functional” longevity) have often used different criteria on herds of varying size in different regions and with divergent average milk outputs (Young, Waddington, Sales, Bradley and Spooner, 1983; Esslemont and Kossaibati, 1997; Forbes, Gayton and McGeogh, 1999; Whitaker Kelly and Smith, 2000; Figure 1). Thus the evidence of increasing or decreasing culling for any particular entity is uncertain.