Studies conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic found high occurrence of suicidal thoughts and behaviours (STBs) among healthcare workers (HCWs). The current study aimed to (1) develop a machine learning-based prediction model for future STBs using data from a large prospective cohort of Spanish HCWs and (2) identify the most important variables in terms of contribution to the model’s predictive accuracy.

This is a prospective, multicentre cohort study of Spanish HCWs active during the COVID-19 pandemic. A total of 8,996 HCWs participated in the web-based baseline survey (May–July 2020) and 4,809 in the 4-month follow-up survey. A total of 219 predictor variables were derived from the baseline survey. The outcome variable was any STB at the 4-month follow-up. Variable selection was done using an L1 regularized linear Support Vector Classifier (SVC). A random forest model with 5-fold cross-validation was developed, in which the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) and undersampling of the majority class balancing techniques were tested. The model was evaluated by the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) curve and the area under the precision–recall curve. Shapley’s additive explanatory values (SHAP values) were used to evaluate the overall contribution of each variable to the prediction of future STBs. Results were obtained separately by gender.

The prevalence of STBs in HCWs at the 4-month follow-up was 7.9% (women = 7.8%, men = 8.2%). Thirty-four variables were selected by the L1 regularized linear SVC. The best results were obtained without data balancing techniques: AUROC = 0.87 (0.86 for women and 0.87 for men) and area under the precision–recall curve = 0.50 (0.55 for women and 0.45 for men). Based on SHAP values, the most important baseline predictors for any STB at the 4-month follow-up were the presence of passive suicidal ideation, the number of days in the past 30 days with passive or active suicidal ideation, the number of days in the past 30 days with binge eating episodes, the number of panic attacks (women only) and the frequency of intrusive thoughts (men only).

Machine learning-based prediction models for STBs in HCWs during the COVID-19 pandemic trained on web-based survey data present high discrimination and classification capacity. Future clinical implementations of this model could enable the early detection of HCWs at the highest risk for developing adverse mental health outcomes.

NCT04556565

Determining whether the incidence of suicidal behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic changed for those with severe mental disorders is essential to ensure the provision of suicide preventive initiatives in the case of future health crises.

Using population-based registers, quarterly cohorts from the first quarter of 2018 (2018Q1) to 2021Q4 were formed including all Swedish-residents >10 years old. Interrupted time series and generalized estimating equations analyses were used to evaluate changes in Incidence Rates (IR) of specialised healthcare use for suicide attempt and death by suicide per 10 000 person-years for individuals with or without specific severe mental disorders (SMDs) during, compared to before the pandemic.

The IR (95% Confidence interval, CI) of suicide in individuals with SMDs decreased from 16.0 (15.0–17.1) in 2018Q1 to 11.6 (10.8–12.5) in 2020Q1 (i.e. the quarter before the start of the pandemic), after which it dropped further to 6.7 (6.3–7.2) in 2021Q2. In contrast, IRs of suicide attempt in SMDs showed more stable trends, as did the trends regarding suicide and suicide attempt for individuals without SMD. These discrepancies were most evident for individuals with substance use disorder and ASD/ADHD. Changes in IRs of suicide v. suicide attempt for one quarter during the pandemic for substance misuse were 11.2% v. 3.6% respectively. These changes for ASD/ADHD were 10.7% v. 3.6%.

The study shows pronounced decreases in suicide rates in individuals with SMDs during the pandemic. Further studies aiming to understand mechanisms behind these trends are warranted to consult future suicide prevention strategies.

Around the world, people living in objectively difficult circumstances who experience symptoms of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) do not qualify for a diagnosis because their worry is not ‘excessive’ relative to the context. We carried out the first large-scale, cross-national study to explore the implications of removing this excessiveness requirement.

Data come from the World Health Organization World Mental Health Survey Initiative. A total of 133 614 adults from 12 surveys in Low- or Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) and 16 surveys in High-Income Countries (HICs) were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Non-excessive worriers meeting all other DSM-5 criteria for GAD were compared to respondents meeting all criteria for GAD, and to respondents without GAD, on clinically-relevant correlates.

Removing the excessiveness requirement increases the global lifetime prevalence of GAD from 2.6% to 4.0%, with larger increases in LMICs than HICs. Non-excessive and excessive GAD cases worry about many of the same things, although non-excessive cases worry more about health/welfare of loved ones, and less about personal or non-specific concerns, than excessive cases. Non-excessive cases closely resemble excessive cases in socio-demographic characteristics, family history of GAD, and risk of temporally secondary comorbidity and suicidality. Although non-excessive cases are less severe on average, they report impairment comparable to excessive cases and often seek treatment for GAD symptoms.

Individuals with non-excessive worry who meet all other DSM-5 criteria for GAD are clinically significant cases. Eliminating the excessiveness requirement would lead to a more defensible GAD diagnosis.

Despite their documented efficacy, substantial proportions of patients discontinue antidepressant medication (ADM) without a doctor's recommendation. The current report integrates data on patient-reported reasons into an investigation of patterns and predictors of ADM discontinuation.

Face-to-face interviews with community samples from 13 countries (n = 30 697) in the World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys included n = 1890 respondents who used ADMs within the past 12 months.

10.9% of 12-month ADM users reported discontinuation-based on recommendation of the prescriber while 15.7% discontinued in the absence of prescriber recommendation. The main patient-reported reason for discontinuation was feeling better (46.6%), which was reported by a higher proportion of patients who discontinued within the first 2 weeks of treatment than later. Perceived ineffectiveness (18.5%), predisposing factors (e.g. fear of dependence) (20.0%), and enabling factors (e.g. inability to afford treatment cost) (5.0%) were much less commonly reported reasons. Discontinuation in the absence of prescriber recommendation was associated with low country income level, being employed, and having above average personal income. Age, prior history of psychotropic medication use, and being prescribed treatment from a psychiatrist rather than from a general medical practitioner, in comparison, were associated with a lower probability of this type of discontinuation. However, these predictors varied substantially depending on patient-reported reasons for discontinuation.

Dropping out early is not necessarily negative with almost half of individuals noting they felt better. The study underscores the diverse reasons given for dropping out and the need to evaluate how and whether dropping out influences short- or long-term functioning.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic might affect mental health. Data from population-representative panel surveys with multiple waves including pre-COVID data investigating risk and protective factors are still rare.

In a stratified random sample of the German household population (n = 6684), we conducted survey-weighted multiple linear regressions to determine the association of various psychological risk and protective factors assessed between 2015 and 2020 with changes in psychological distress [(PD; measured via Patient Health Questionnaire for Depression and Anxiety (PHQ-4)] from pre-pandemic (average of 2016 and 2019) to peri-pandemic (both 2020 and 2021) time points. Control analyses on PD change between two pre-pandemic time points (2016 and 2019) were conducted. Regularized regressions were computed to inform on which factors were statistically most influential in the multicollinear setting.

PHQ-4 scores in 2020 (M = 2.45) and 2021 (M = 2.21) were elevated compared to 2019 (M = 1.79). Several risk factors (catastrophizing, neuroticism, and asking for instrumental support) and protective factors (perceived stress recovery, positive reappraisal, and optimism) were identified for the peri-pandemic outcomes. Control analyses revealed that in pre-pandemic times, neuroticism and optimism were predominantly related to PD changes. Regularized regression mostly confirmed the results and highlighted perceived stress recovery as most consistent influential protective factor across peri-pandemic outcomes.

We identified several psychological risk and protective factors related to PD outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. A comparison of pre-pandemic data stresses the relevance of longitudinal assessments to potentially reconcile contradictory findings. Implications and suggestions for targeted prevention and intervention programs during highly stressful times such as pandemics are discussed.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is characterised by a recurrent course and high comorbidity rates. A lifespan perspective may therefore provide important information regarding health outcomes. The aim of the present study is to examine mental disorders that preceded 12-month MDD diagnosis and the impact of these disorders on depression outcomes.

Data came from 29 cross-sectional community epidemiological surveys of adults in 27 countries (n = 80 190). The Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) was used to assess 12-month MDD and lifetime DSM-IV disorders with onset prior to the respondent's age at interview. Disorders were grouped into depressive distress disorders, non-depressivedistress disorders, fear disorders and externalising disorders. Depression outcomes included 12-month suicidality, days out of role and impairment in role functioning.

Among respondents with 12-month MDD, 94.9% (s.e. = 0.4) had at least one prior disorder (including previous MDD), and 64.6% (s.e. = 0.9) had at least one prior, non-MDD disorder. Previous non-depressive distress, fear and externalising disorders, but not depressive distress disorders, predicted higher impairment (OR = 1.4–1.6) and suicidality (OR = 1.5–2.5), after adjustment for sociodemographic variables. Further adjustment for MDD characteristics weakened, but did not eliminate, these associations. Associations were largely driven by current comorbidities, but both remitted and current externalising disorders predicted suicidality among respondents with 12-month MDD.

These results illustrate the importance of careful psychiatric history taking regarding current anxiety disorders and lifetime externalising disorders in individuals with MDD.

Depressive and anxiety disorders are highly comorbid, which has been theorized to be due to an underlying internalizing vulnerability. We aimed to identify groups of participants with differing vulnerabilities by examining the course of internalizing psychopathology up to age 45.

We used data from 24158 participants (aged 45+) in 23 population-based cross-sectional World Mental Health Surveys. Internalizing disorders were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). We applied latent class growth analysis (LCGA) and investigated the characteristics of identified classes using logistic or linear regression.

The best-fitting LCGA solution identified eight classes: a healthy class (81.9%), three childhood-onset classes with mild (3.7%), moderate (2.0%), or severe (1.1%) internalizing comorbidity, two puberty-onset classes with mild (4.0%) or moderate (1.4%) comorbidity, and two adult-onset classes with mild comorbidity (2.7% and 3.2%). The childhood-onset severe class had particularly unfavorable sociodemographic outcomes compared to the healthy class, with increased risks of being never or previously married (OR = 2.2 and 2.0, p < 0.001), not being employed (OR = 3.5, p < 0.001), and having a low/low-average income (OR = 2.2, p < 0.001). Moderate or severe (v. mild) comorbidity was associated with 12-month internalizing disorders (OR = 1.9 and 4.8, p < 0.001), disability (B = 1.1–2.3, p < 0.001), and suicidal ideation (OR = 4.2, p < 0.001 for severe comorbidity only). Adult (v. childhood) onset was associated with lower rates of 12-month internalizing disorders (OR = 0.2, p < 0.001).

We identified eight transdiagnostic trajectories of internalizing psychopathology. Unfavorable outcomes were concentrated in the 1% of participants with childhood onset and severe comorbidity. Early identification of this group may offer opportunities for preventive interventions.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Shortfalls in treatment quantity and quality are well-established, but the specific gaps in pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy are poorly understood. This paper analyzes the gap in treatment coverage for MDD and identifies critical bottlenecks.

Seventeen surveys were conducted across 15 countries by the World Health Organization-World Mental Health Surveys Initiative. Of 35 012 respondents, 3341 met DSM-IV criteria for 12-month MDD. The following components of effective treatment coverage were analyzed: (a) any mental health service utilization; (b) adequate pharmacotherapy; (c) adequate psychotherapy; and (d) adequate severity-specific combination of both.

MDD prevalence was 4.8% (s.e., 0.2). A total of 41.8% (s.e., 1.1) received any mental health services, 23.2% (s.e., 1.5) of which was deemed effective. This 90% gap in effective treatment is due to lack of utilization (58%) and inadequate quality or adherence (32%). Critical bottlenecks are underutilization of psychotherapy (26 percentage-points reduction in coverage), underutilization of psychopharmacology (13-point reduction), inadequate physician monitoring (13-point reduction), and inadequate drug-type (10-point reduction). High-income countries double low-income countries in any mental health service utilization, adequate pharmacotherapy, adequate psychotherapy, and adequate combination of both. Severe cases are more likely than mild-moderate cases to receive either adequate pharmacotherapy or psychotherapy, but less likely to receive an adequate combination.

Decision-makers need to increase the utilization and quality of pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy. Innovations such as telehealth for training and supervision plus non-specialist or community resources to deliver pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy could address these bottlenecks.

This study aims to generate country-specific norms for two episodic memory tasks and a verbal fluency test among middle-aged and older adults using nationally representative data from nine low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

Data from nine countries in Africa, Asia, Europe, and Latin America were analyzed (n = 42,116; aged 50 years or older). Episodic memory was assessed with the word list memory (three trials of immediate recall) and word list recall (delayed recall). Verbal fluency was measured through the animal naming task. Multiple linear regression models with country-specific adjustments for gender, age, education, and residential area were carried out.

Both age and education showed high influence on test performance (i.e. lower cognitive performance with increasing age and decreasing years of education, respectively), while the effect of sex and residential area on cognitive function was neither homogeneous across countries nor across cognitive tasks.

Our study provided sex-, age-, education-, and residential area-specific regression-based norms that were obtained from one of the largest normative study worldwide on verbal recall and fluency tests to date. Findings derived from this study will be especially useful for clinicians and researchers based at countries where cognitive norms are limited.

Only a few studies have analyzed the effects of physical and psychiatric conditions on the risk of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS). Therefore, the goal of this exploratory case-control study was to investigate the associations of physical and psychiatric conditions with CFS in almost 19 800 adults from Germany.

This study included patients diagnosed for the first time with CFS in one of 1238 general practices in Germany between 2010 and 2017 (index date). Controls without CFS were matched (1:1) to cases with CFS by sex, age, index year, and practice. Physical and psychiatric conditions diagnosed in the year prior to the index date were included if they were present in at least 3% of patients with CFS. Associations between physical and psychiatric conditions (33 potential independent variables) and CFS (dependent variable) were analyzed in an adjusted conditional logistic regression model, and physical and psychiatric disorders were included in the model using forward stepwise selection.

This study included 9896 cases with CFS and 9896 controls without CFS [65.1% women; mean (standard deviation) age 49.5 (18.3) years]. Seven conditions were associated with CFS in the adjusted regression model. The disorders displaying the strongest relationship with CFS were cancer [odds ratio (OR) = 2.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.24–2.95], sleep disorders (OR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.66–2.12) and depression (OR = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.61–1.95).

Cancer, sleep disorders, and depression were strongly and positively associated with CFS. Additional studies are needed to gain a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying these relationships.

There is a substantial proportion of patients who drop out of treatment before they receive minimally adequate care. They tend to have worse health outcomes than those who complete treatment. Our main goal is to describe the frequency and determinants of dropout from treatment for mental disorders in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

Respondents from 13 low- or middle-income countries (N = 60 224) and 15 in high-income countries (N = 77 303) were screened for mental and substance use disorders. Cross-tabulations were used to examine the distribution of treatment and dropout rates for those who screened positive. The timing of dropout was examined using Kaplan–Meier curves. Predictors of dropout were examined with survival analysis using a logistic link function.

Dropout rates are high, both in high-income (30%) and low/middle-income (45%) countries. Dropout mostly occurs during the first two visits. It is higher in general medical rather than in specialist settings (nearly 60% v. 20% in lower income settings). It is also higher for mild and moderate than for severe presentations. The lack of financial protection for mental health services is associated with overall increased dropout from care.

Extending financial protection and coverage for mental disorders may reduce dropout. Efficiency can be improved by managing the milder clinical presentations at the entry point to the mental health system, providing adequate training, support and specialist supervision for non-specialists, and streamlining referral to psychiatrists for more severe cases.

Psychopathological heterogeneity in manic syndromes may in part reflect underlying latent classes with characteristic outcome patterns. Differential treatment course and outcome after 12 weeks of treatment were examined for three distinct classes of patients with acute mania in bipolar disorder.

Three thousand four hundred and twenty-five patients with acute mania were divided into three distinct mania classes: ‘Typical’, ‘Psychotic’ and ‘Dual’ (i.e. comorbid substance use) mania. Persistence of class differences and social outcomes were examined, using multilevel regression analyses and odds ratios.

The three classes showed substantial stability post-baseline in the pattern of associations with class-characteristic variables. Psychotic and Dual mania predicted poorer outcome in terms of psychosis comorbidity and overall bipolar and mania severity, while Dual mania additionally predicted poorer outcome of alcohol and substance abuse. Worse social outcomes were observed for both Dual and Psychotic mania.

The identified distinct classes are stable and associated with differential treatment outcome. Overall, Dual and Psychotic mania show less favourable outcomes compared to Typical mania. These findings additionally give rise to concern on the generalisability of randomized clinical trials RCTs.

This article presents the long-term results in terms of antipsychotic medication maintenance and factors influencing it in a representative sample of patients with schizophrenia recruited in the SOHO study within Spain.

The SOHO was a prospective, 3-year observational study of the outcomes of schizophrenia treatment in outpatients who initiated therapy or changed to a new antipsychotic performed in 10 European countries with a focus on olanzapine. The Kaplan–Meier method was used to analyse the time to treatment discontinuation and the Cox proportional hazards model to investigate correlates of discontinuation.

In total, 1688 patients were included in the analyses. Medication maintenance at 3 years varied with the antipsychotic prescribed, being highest with clozapine (57.6%, 95% CI 39.2–74.5), followed by olanzapine (48.3%, 95% CI 45.1–51.5); and lowest with quetiapine (19.0%, 95% CI 13.0–26.3). Treatment discontinuation was significantly less frequent with olanzapine than with risperidone (p = 0.015), depot typical (p = 0.001), oral typical antipsychotics (p < 0.001) or quetiapine (p < 0.001); but not than with clozapine (p = 0.309). Longer maintenance was also associated with higher social abilities and better cognitive status at baseline; in contrast, a shorter time to discontinuation was associated with the need for mood stabilisers during follow-up. This study emphasises the different value of antipsychotics in day-to-day clinical practice, as some of them were associated with longer medication maintenance periods than others. This study has some limitations because of possible selection and information biases derived from the non-systematic, non-randomised allocation to treatments and the existence of unobserved covariates that may influence the outcome.

Non-heterosexual individuals are at high risk for a variety of factors associated with the emergence of psychotic experiences (PEs) (e.g. common mental disorders, substance use, and stress). However, there is a scarcity of data on the association between sexual orientation and PEs. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine the sexual orientation-PE relationship, and to identify potential mediators in this relationship.

This study used nationally representative cross-sectional data from the 2007 Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey. Sexual orientation was dichotomized into heterosexual and non-heterosexual. Past 12-month PE was assessed with the Psychosis Screening Questionnaire. Regression and mediation analyses were conducted to analyze the association between sexual orientation and PEs, and to identify potential mediators involved in this relationship.

The final sample consisted of 7275 individuals aged ⩾16 years. The prevalence of non-heterosexual orientation and any PE was 7.1% and 5.5%, respectively. After adjusting for sex, age, and ethnicity, non-heterosexual orientation was positively associated with any PE (odds ratio 1.99, 95% confidence interval 1.34–2.93). The strongest mediators involved in this relationship were borderline personality disorder (BPD) traits (mediated percentage = 33.5%), loneliness (29.1%), and stressful life events (25.4%).

These findings suggest that there is a positive relationship between sexual orientation and PEs in the general population in England, and that underlying mechanisms may involve BPD traits, loneliness, and stressful life events. Future studies with a longitudinal design are warranted to shed more light on how these factors are implicated in the association between sexual orientation and PEs.

To identify, in caregivers of patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) dementia, factors associated with subjective (personal, physical, emotional, and social) and objective (informal caregiver time and costs) caregiver burden.

Prospective longitudinal European observational study: post-hoc analysis.

Clinic.

Community-dwelling patients in France and Germany aged ≥ 55 years (n = 969) with probable AD and their informal caregivers.

Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Alzheimer’s Disease Cooperative Study—Activities of Daily Living (ADCS-ADL), 12-item Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI-12), Zarit Burden Interview (ZBI), informal caregiver basic and instrumental ADL hours (Resource Utilization in Dementia instrument), and informal caregiver costs. Mixed-effect models of repeated measures (MMRM) were run, including baseline and time-dependent covariates (change from baseline [CFB] to 18 months in MMSE, ADCS-ADL, and NPI-12 scores) associated with CFB in ZBI score/informal caregiver time over 36 months (analyzed using linear regression models) and informal caregiver costs over 36 months (analyzed using generalized linear models).

Greater decline in patient function (ADCS-ADL) over 18 months was associated with increased subjective caregiver burden (ZBI), hours, and costs over 36 months. Increased behavioral problems (NPI-12) over 18 months also negatively impacted ZBI. Cognitive decline (MMSE) over 18 months did not affect change in caregiver burden.

Long-term informal caregiver burden was driven by worsening functional abilities and behavioral symptoms but not cognitive decline, over 18 months in community-dwelling patients with AD dementia. Identifying the drivers of caregiver burden could highlight areas in which interventions may benefit both caregivers and patients.