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Evaluate how a foundation-supported fellowship employs early health-technology assessment (eHTA) to guide the development and positioning of emerging health innovations.
Methods
We reviewed all eHTA reports conducted under the Fellowship from 2018 to 2021 (n = 10), extracting technology class, development stage, economic modeling, and recommendations. In 2023, we conducted thirty-minute structured video interviews with developers of each technology (eleven invitees, ten responses). The interview comprised Likert questions on perceived usefulness and intention to update the model in later stages, and six open-ended questions on perceived advantages, implementation barriers, and downstream actions. Likert data were summarized descriptively; open-ended responses were summarized and discussed within the research team until consensus on key themes.
Results
The eHTA subject technologies were four diagnostics, three therapeutics, two predictive algorithms, and one curative device, all preclinical. Analyses used six Markov or decision-tree frameworks, four hybrid models or simulations, and six value-based-pricing scenarios. Five technologies were potentially cost-effective, three conditionally cost-effective, one unlikely to be cost-effective without stronger evidence, and one cost-effective yet unlikely to break even. Eight developers rated eHTA “useful” or “very useful”; three had already leveraged results in grant or investor materials and two planned to do so when more data emerged. Reported barriers included evidence gaps, funding constraints, and misalignment with pharmaceutical partners on codevelopment strategies; two projects were discontinued.
Conclusions
eHTA supplies developers with early economic insight, but its guidance is most reliable when interpreted alongside budget impact, feasibility, regulatory, and adoption considerations.
The use of explosive weapons in populated areas (EWIPA) has a disproportionate impact on civilians. Many humanitarian organizations utilize varying sheltering guidelines to recommend safe positions for civilians affected by explosive threats. It is not known whether these recommendations are standardized or derived from evidence. This study aimed to identify existing recommendations and potential gaps in literature relevant to sheltering guidelines for civilians during explosive events.
Methods
A scoping review was conducted of the literature including indexed databases and grey literature to identify reports that described sheltering guidelines for civilians during explosive events. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) methodology was followed.
Results
The search identified 3582 peer-reviewed records. After title/abstract and full text screening, only 2 peer-reviewed reports remained eligible. These were combined with 13 gray literature reports obtained from humanitarian organizations and internet searches. The peer-reviewed reports included mine and unexploded ordnance guidelines, not guidelines for EWIPA or aerial bombardments. There is a substantial knowledge gap and heterogeneity in existing sheltering guidelines from explosive events, particularly those appropriate for protection from EWIPA.
Conclusions
Findings from this scoping review demonstrate a need for the creation and standardization of evidence-based civilian sheltering guidelines to mitigate the threat of explosive weapons to civilians in conflict.
Low birthweight is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes. We hypothesised that differential associations between birthweight and clinical characteristics in persons with and without type 2 diabetes may provide novel insights into the role of birthweight in type 2 diabetes and its progression. We analysed UK Biobank data from 9,442 persons with and 254,446 without type 2 diabetes. Associations between birthweight, clinical traits, and genetic predisposition were assessed using adjusted linear and logistic regression, comparing the lowest and highest 25% of birthweight to the middle 50%. Each kg increase in birthweight was associated with higher BMI, waist, and hip circumference, with stronger effects in persons with versus without type 2 diabetes (BMI: 0.74 [0.58, 0.90] vs. 0.21 [0.18, 0.24] kg/m2; waist: 2.15 [1.78, 2.52] vs. 1.04 [0.98, 1.09] cm; hip: 1.65 [1.33, 1.97] vs. 1.04 [1.04, 1.09] cm). Family history of diabetes was associated with higher birthweight regardless of diabetes status, albeit with a twofold higher effect estimate in type 2 diabetes. Low birthweight was further associated with prior myocardial infarction regardless of type 2 diabetes status (OR 1.33 [95% CI 1.11, 1.60] for type 2 diabetes; 1.23 [95% CI 1.13, 1.33] without), and hypertension (OR 1.25 [1.23, 1.28] and stroke 1.24 [1.14, 1.34]) only among persons without type 2 diabetes. Differential associations between birthweight and cardiometabolic traits in persons with and without type 2 diabetes illuminate potential causal inferences reflecting the roles of pre- and postnatal environmental versus genetic aetiologies and disease mechanisms.
Helium or neopentane can be used as surrogate gas fill for deuterium (D2) or deuterium-tritium (DT) in laser-plasma interaction studies. Surrogates are convenient to avoid flammability hazards or the integration of cryogenics in an experiment. To test the degree of equivalency between deuterium and helium, experiments were conducted in the Pecos target chamber at Sandia National Laboratories. Observables such as laser propagation and signatures of laser-plasma instabilities (LPI) were recorded for multiple laser and target configurations. It was found that some observables can differ significantly despite the apparent similarity of the gases with respect to molecular charge and weight. While a qualitative behaviour of the interaction may very well be studied by finding a suitable compromise of laser absorption, electron density, and LPI cross sections, a quantitative investigation of expected values for deuterium fills at high laser intensities is not likely to succeed with surrogate gases.
Diets deficient in fibre are reported globally. The associated health risks of insufficient dietary fibre are sufficiently grave to necessitate large-scale interventions to increase population intake levels. The Danish Whole Grain Partnership (DWP) is a public–private enterprise model that successfully augmented whole-grain intake in the Danish population. The potential transferability of the DWP model to Slovenia, Romania and Bosnia-Herzegovina has recently been explored. Here, we outline the feasibility of adopting the approach in the UK. Drawing on the collaborative experience of DWP partners, academics from the Healthy Soil, Healthy Food, Healthy People (H3) project and food industry representatives (Food and Drink Federation), this article examines the transferability of the DWP approach to increase whole grain and/or fibre intake in the UK. Specific consideration is given to the UK’s political, regulatory and socio-economic context. We note key political, regulatory, social and cultural challenges to transferring the success of DWP to the UK, highlighting the particular challenge of increasing fibre consumption among low socio-economic status groups – which were also most resistant to interventions in Denmark. Wholesale transfer of the DWP model to the UK is considered unlikely given the absence of the key ‘success factors’ present in Denmark. However, the DWP provides a template against which a UK-centric approach can be developed. In the absence of a clear regulatory context for whole grain in the UK, fibre should be prioritised and public–private partnerships supported to increase the availability and acceptability of fibre-rich foods.
Natural language processing (NLP) methods hold promise for improving clinical prediction by utilising information otherwise hidden in the clinical notes of electronic health records. However, clinical practice – as well as the systems and databases in which clinical notes are recorded and stored – change over time. As a consequence, the content of clinical notes may also change over time, which could degrade the performance of prediction models. Despite its importance, the stability of clinical notes over time has rarely been tested.
Methods:
The lexical stability of clinical notes from the Psychiatric Services of the Central Denmark Region in the period from January 1, 2011, to November 22, 2021 (a total of 14,811,551 clinical notes describing 129,570 patients) was assessed by quantifying sentence length, readability, syntactic complexity and clinical content. Changepoint detection models were used to estimate potential changes in these metrics.
Results:
We find lexical stability of the clinical notes over time, with minor deviations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Out of 2988 data points, 17 possible changepoints (corresponding to 0.6%) were detected. The majority of these were related to the discontinuation of a specific note type.
Conclusion:
We find lexical and syntactic stability of clinical notes from psychiatric services over time, which bodes well for the use of NLP for predictive modelling in clinical psychiatry.
Textbook recommendations for gavaging rats vary between 1-5 ml for an adult rat. Rats weighing either 130 g or 250 g were gavaged with varying dosages of barium sulphate (BaSO4). After dosing, radiographs were taken at 0, 15 and 60 min. Animals showing a section of the small intestine totally filled with BaSO4 were scored as displaying spontaneous release. Other rats of the same sizes were gavaged with similar doses and subsequently tested in an open-field arena for behavioural abnormalities that might indicate stress or pain resulting from the procedure. Body temperature before and after treatment was recorded using microchip transponders. None of the 250 g rats in the 1 ml dosage group showed spontaneous release through the pyloric sphincter. In the 2 ml and 4 ml dosage groups, only one out of five animals showed spontaneous release. In the 6 ml dosage group, half of the animals showed spontaneous release. In the 8 ml and 10 ml dosage groups, five out of six and four out of five, respectively, showed spontaneous release. If doses were higher than 12 ml, no animal was able to keep all of the BaSO4 in its stomach. In the rats weighing 130 g, the 3 ml dosage group showed only one out of four rats with spontaneous release, whereas in the 5 ml and 7 ml dosage groups, all animals showed spontaneous release. After 15 min, all of the rats in both weight groups showed BaSO4 in the duodenum. Ambulation, rearing up onto the hind legs and defecation, as well as body temperature immediately after dosing, correlated very strongly with the dose (ml kg−1); increasing the dose resulted in reduced ambulation, rearing, defecation and body temperature. However, 10 min after performance of the open-field test, neither body temperature, serum corticosterone nor serum glucose showed any correlation with dose. This study indicates that high doses (ie doses up to 10 ml for a 250 g rat) might be safe to use; however, if an adverse impact on the rat is to be avoided, use of much lower doses should be considered—for example, doses that do not enforce opening of the pyloric sphincter in any rat. This would be less than 4 ml kg−1 in a 250 g rat.
To examine the effect of hay on behaviour of caged rabbits, Oryctolagus cuniculus, a study was carried out on 86 rabbits, kept in wire cages with no access to hay in one period and with access to hay in a second period. As the study was part of a larger experiment analysing the rabbits’ behaviour in two different cage systems, the rabbits were equally distributed across two systems: a system with conventional barren wire cages, and an enriched system with boxes and raised height at the back of the wire cages. The rabbits’ behaviour was recorded using direct scan sampling during the day and continuous registration based on video recording at night. When hay was available, the rabbits in both cage systems performed significantly less bar gnawing and excessive grooming. This applied especially to the rabbits kept in the conventional cage system which also showed a distinct decrease in their frequency of changing between different behaviours. This suggests that rabbits kept in cages where hay is available are less stressed than those kept in cages where it is not. Enrichment with hay should, therefore, be considered in attempts to improve the welfare of caged rabbits.
The WelFur project aims at the development of on-farm welfare assessment protocols for farmed foxes (the blue fox [Vulpes lagopus], the silver fox [Vulpes vulpes]) and mink (Neovison vison). The WelFur protocols are based on Welfare Quality® (WQ) principles and criteria. Here, we describe the WelFur protocols after two years of developmental work. Reviews for each of the 12 WQ welfare criteria were written for foxes and mink to identify the welfare measures that have been used in scientific studies. The reviews formed the basis for potential measures to be included in the WelFur protocols. All measures were evaluated for their validity, reliability and feasibility. At present, we have identified 15 fox and 9 mink animal-based (or outcome-based) welfare measures, and 11 and 13 input-based (resource-based or management-based) measures. For both foxes and mink, each of the four WQ principles is judged by at least one criterion, and seven out of the 12 criteria include animal-based measures. The protocols will be piloted in 2012. Using the WQ project and protocols as a model has been a fruitful approach in developing the WelFur protocols. The effects of the WelFur protocols will provide benchmarks from which the welfare of animals on European fur farms can be assessed.
Recent estimates suggest that 40% of dementia cases could be avoided by treating recognised cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes, smoking and physical inactivity. Whether diet is associated with dementia remains largely unknown. We tested if low adherence to established dietary guidelines is associated with elevated lipids and lipoproteins and with increased risk of Alzheimer's disease and non-Alzheimer's dementia – a dementia subtype with a high frequency of cardiovascular risk factors.
Methods
We used the prospective Copenhagen General Population Study including 94 184 individuals with dietary information and free of dementia at baseline. Mean age at study entry was 58 years, and 55% (N = 51 720) were women and 45% (N = 42 464) were men. Adherence to dietary guidelines was grouped into low, intermediate and high adherence based on food frequency questionnaires. Main outcomes were non-Alzheimer's dementia and Alzheimer's disease.
Results
Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and plasma triglyceride levels were higher in individuals with intermediate and low adherence to dietary guidelines compared with individuals with high adherence (all p for trends <0.001). Age and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for non-Alzheimer's dementia v. individuals with high adherence were 1.19 (95% confidence interval 0.97–1.46) for intermediate adherence, and 1.54 (1.18–2.00) for low adherence. Corresponding HRs in multivariable-adjusted models including APOE genotype were 1.14 (0.92–1.40) and 1.35 (1.03–1.79). These relationships were not observed in individuals on lipid-lowering therapy.
Conclusions
Low adherence to national dietary guidelines is associated with an atherogenic lipid profile and with increased risk of non-Alzheimer's dementia – the subtype of dementia with a high frequency of vascular risk factors. This study suggests that implementation of dietary guidelines associated with an anti-atherogenic lipid profile could be important for prevention of non-Alzheimer's dementia.
Involuntary admissions are increasing in numbers across Europe.1 They can be traumatic for the patients2 and are associated with large societal costs.3 Individuals with psychotic disorder are at particularly elevated risk of involuntary admission.
Objectives
This study aims to investigate whether machine learning methods including natural language processing can predict involuntary admission among patients with psychotic disorder.
Methods
We have obtained a dataset based on electronic health records for all patients having had at least one contact with the psychiatric services in the Central Denmark Region from 2011 to 2021. This dataset covers more than 120,000 patients, of which approximately 10,000 have been diagnosed with a psychotic disorder. The dataset contains both structured data, such as diagnoses, blood tests etc., as well as unstructured data (text). We will train machine learning models, basic logistic regression-models as well as state-of-the-art neural networks, to predict involuntary admission after contacts to the psychiatric services.
Results
As the machine learning models are under development, no results are available at this time. Preliminary results are expected in spring 2022.
Conclusions
If involuntary admission can be predicted among patients with psychotic disorder based on data from electronic health records, it will pave the way for potentially preventive interventions. References: 1. Sheridans-Rains, L et al., 2019 2. Frueh, B.C et al., 2005 3. Smith,S., 2020
When prolonging the physical lifetime of products, it is important to also consider the value lifetime, the time before customers discards the products because it no longer has any perceived value. In this paper we study design and marketing strategies known to be particularly relevant to enhance the value perception of consumers, hence lifetimes of products. To do so, we first review literature to build a framework, we then use to conduct case studies at five Danish product design brands. This let us to insights on design and marketing strategies relevant to enhance product lifetimes.
The objectives and scope of a construction project is defined in the early design stage, the fuzzy front-end. This stage is crucial for project risk management and success, but traditional risk management tend to focus on operational risk in later design stages. This action research study leverages co-design methodology and the project management actuality perspective to tailor a risk management process for the fuzzy front-end of construction projects in a large client organization. The co-design process help enchance stakeholder value perception of the designed solution.
Reinforcement learning has previously been applied to the problem of controlling a perched landing manoeuvre for a custom sweep-wing aircraft. Previous work showed that the use of domain randomisation to train with atmospheric disturbances improved the real-world performance of the controllers, leading to increased reward. This paper builds on the previous project, investigating enhancements and modifications to the learning process to further improve performance, and reduce final state error. These changes include modifying the observation by adding information about the airspeed to the standard aircraft state vector, employing further domain randomisation of the simulator, optimising the underlying RL algorithm and network structure, and changing to a continuous action space. Simulated investigations identified hyperparameter optimisation as achieving the most significant increase in reward performance. Several test cases were explored to identify the best combination of enhancements. Flight testing was performed, comparing a baseline model against some of the best performing test cases from simulation. Generally, test cases that performed better than the baseline in simulation also performed better in the real world. However, flight tests also identified limitations with the current numerical model. For some models, the chosen policy performs well in simulation yet stalls prematurely in reality, a problem known as the reality gap.
Human infancy and early childhood is both a time of heightened brain plasticity and responsivity to the environment as well as a developmental period of dependency on caregivers for survival, nurturance, and stimulation. Across primate species and human evolutionary history, close contact between infants and caregivers is species-expected. As children develop, caregiver–child proximity patterns change as children become more autonomous. In addition to developmental changes, there is variation in caregiver–child proximity across cultures and families, with potential implications for child functioning. We propose that caregiver–child proximity is an important dimension for understanding early environments, given that interactions between children and their caregivers are a primary source of experience-dependent learning. We review approaches for operationalizing this construct (e.g., touch, physical distance) and highlight studies that illustrate how caregiver–child proximity can be measured. Drawing on the concepts proposed in dimensional models of adversity, we consider how caregiver–child proximity may contribute to our understanding of children’s early experiences. Finally, we discuss future directions in caregiver–child proximity research with the goal of understanding the link between early experiences and child adaptive and maladaptive functioning.
We characterized antibiotic prescribing patterns and management practices among recurrent urinary tract infection (rUTI) patients, and we identified factors associated with lack of guideline adherence to antibiotic choice, duration of treatment, and urine cultures obtained. We hypothesized that prior resistance to nitrofurantoin or trimethoprim–sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX), shorter intervals between rUTIs, and more frequent rUTIs would be associated with fluoroquinolone or β-lactam prescribing, or longer duration of therapy.
Methods:
This study was a retrospective database study of adult women with International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) cystitis codes meeting American Urological Association rUTI criteria at outpatient clinics within our academic medical center between 2016 and 2018. We excluded patients with ICD-10 codes indicative of complicated UTI or pyelonephritis. Generalized estimating equations were used for risk-factor analysis.
Results:
Among 214 patients with 566 visits, 61.5% of prescriptions comprised first-line agents of nitrofurantoin (39.7%) and TMP-SMX (21.5%), followed by second-line choices of fluoroquinolones (27.2%) and β-lactams (11%). Most fluoroquinolone prescriptions (86.7%), TMP-SMX prescriptions (72.2%), and nitrofurantoin prescriptions (60.2%) exceeded the guideline-recommended duration. Approximately half of visits lacked a urine culture. Receiving care through urology via telephone was associated with receiving a β-lactam (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 6.34; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.58–15.56) or fluoroquinolone (OR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.07–4.86). Having >2 rUTIs during the study period and seeking care from a urology practice (RR, 1.28, 95% CI, 1.15–1.44) were associated with longer antibiotic duration.
Conclusions:
We found low guideline concordance for antibiotic choice, duration of therapy and cultures obtained among rUTI patients. These factors represent new targets for outpatient antibiotic stewardship interventions.
To propose a set of internationally harmonized procedures and methods for assessing neurocognitive functions, smell, taste, mental, and psychosocial health, and other factors in adults formally diagnosed with COVID-19 (confirmed as SARS-CoV-2 + WHO definition).
Methods:
We formed an international and cross-disciplinary NeuroCOVID Neuropsychology Taskforce in April 2020. Seven criteria were used to guide the selection of the recommendations’ methods and procedures: (i) Relevance to all COVID-19 illness stages and longitudinal study design; (ii) Standard, cross-culturally valid or widely available instruments; (iii) Coverage of both direct and indirect causes of COVID-19-associated neurological and psychiatric symptoms; (iv) Control of factors specifically pertinent to COVID-19 that may affect neuropsychological performance; (v) Flexibility of administration (telehealth, computerized, remote/online, face to face); (vi) Harmonization for facilitating international research; (vii) Ease of translation to clinical practice.
Results:
The three proposed levels of harmonization include a screening strategy with telehealth option, a medium-size computerized assessment with an online/remote option, and a comprehensive evaluation with flexible administration. The context in which each harmonization level might be used is described. Issues of assessment timelines, guidance for home/remote assessment to support data fidelity and telehealth considerations, cross-cultural adequacy, norms, and impairment definitions are also described.
Conclusions:
The proposed recommendations provide rationale and methodological guidance for neuropsychological research studies and clinical assessment in adults with COVID-19. We expect that the use of the recommendations will facilitate data harmonization and global research. Research implementing the recommendations will be crucial to determine their acceptability, usability, and validity.
The quality of life and lifespan are greatly reduced among individuals with mental illness. To improve prognosis, the nascent field of precision psychiatry aims to provide personalised predictions for the course of illness and response to treatment. Unfortunately, the results of precision psychiatry studies are rarely externally validated, almost never implemented in clinical practice, and tend to focus on a few selected outcomes. To overcome these challenges, we have established the PSYchiatric Clinical Outcome Prediction (PSYCOP) cohort, which will form the basis for extensive studies in the upcoming years.
Methods:
PSYCOP is a retrospective cohort study that includes all patients with at least one contact with the psychiatric services of the Central Denmark Region in the period from January 1, 2011, to October 28, 2020 (n = 119 291). All data from the electronic health records (EHR) are included, spanning diagnoses, information on treatments, clinical notes, discharge summaries, laboratory tests, etc. Based on these data, machine learning methods will be used to make prediction models for a range of clinical outcomes, such as diagnostic shifts, treatment response, medical comorbidity, and premature mortality, with an explicit focus on clinical feasibility and implementation.
Discussions:
We expect that studies based on the PSYCOP cohort will advance the field of precision psychiatry through the use of state-of-the-art machine learning methods on a large and representative data set. Implementation of prediction models in clinical psychiatry will likely improve treatment and, hopefully, increase the quality of life and lifespan of those with mental illness.
The fundamental nature of turbulent density fluctuations in standard Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) stellarator discharges is investigated experimentally via phase contrast imaging (PCI) in combination with gyrokinetic simulations with the code GENE. We find that density fluctuations are ion-temperature-gradient-driven and radially localised in the outer half of the plasma. It is shown that the line-integrated PCI measurements cover the right range of wavenumbers and a favourable toroidal and poloidal location to capture some of the strongest density fluctuations in W7-X. Due to the radial localisation of fluctuations, measured wavenumber–frequency spectra exhibit a dominant phase velocity, which can be related to the $\boldsymbol {E\times B}$ rotation velocity at the radial position of a well in the neoclassical radial electric field. The match is robust against variations of heating power and line-integrated density, which is partly due to the localisation of fluctuations and partly due to effects of the radial gradient in the $\boldsymbol {E\times B}$ velocity profile on the wavenumber–frequency spectrum. The latter effect is studied with a newly built synthetic PCI diagnostic and global gyrokinetic simulations with GENE-3D.
In this study, we examined the relationship between polygenic liability for depression and number of stressful life events (SLEs) as risk factors for early-onset depression treated in inpatient, outpatient or emergency room settings at psychiatric hospitals in Denmark.
Methods
Data were drawn from the iPSYCH2012 case-cohort sample, a population-based sample of individuals born in Denmark between 1981 and 2005. The sample included 18 532 individuals who were diagnosed with depression by a psychiatrist by age 31 years, and a comparison group of 20 184 individuals. Information on SLEs was obtained from nationwide registers and operationalized as a time-varying count variable. Hazard ratios and cumulative incidence rates were estimated using Cox regressions.
Results
Risk for depression increased by 35% with each standard deviation increase in polygenic liability (p < 0.0001), and 36% (p < 0.0001) with each additional SLE. There was a small interaction between polygenic liability and SLEs (β = −0.04, p = 0.0009). The probability of being diagnosed with depression in a hospital-based setting between ages 15 and 31 years ranged from 1.5% among males in the lowest quartile of polygenic liability with 0 events by age 15, to 18.8% among females in the highest quartile of polygenic liability with 4+ events by age 15.
Conclusions
These findings suggest that although there is minimal interaction between polygenic liability and SLEs as risk factors for hospital-treated depression, combining information on these two important risk factors could potentially be useful for identifying high-risk individuals.