Biodiversity monitoring programmes should be designed with sufficient statistical power to detect population change. Here we evaluated the statistical power of monitoring to detect declines in the occupancy of forest birds on Christmas Island, Australia. We fitted zero-inflated binomial models to 3 years of repeat detection data (2011, 2013 and 2015) to estimate single-visit detection probabilities for four species of concern: the Christmas Island imperial pigeon Ducula whartoni, Christmas Island white-eye Zosterops natalis, Christmas Island thrush Turdus poliocephalus erythropleurus and Christmas Island emerald dove Chalcophaps indica natalis. We combined detection probabilities with maps of occupancy to simulate data collected over the next 10 years for alternative monitoring designs and for different declines in occupancy (10–50%). Specifically, we explored how the number of sites (60, 128, 300, 500), the interval between surveys (1–5 years), the number of repeat visits (2–4 visits) and the location of sites influenced power. Power was high (> 80%) for the imperial pigeon, white-eye and thrush for most scenarios, except for when only 60 sites were surveyed or a 10% decline in occupancy was simulated over 10 years. For the emerald dove, which is the rarest of the four species and has a patchy distribution, power was low in almost all scenarios tested. Prioritizing monitoring towards core habitat for this species only slightly improved power to detect declines. Our study demonstrates how data collected during the early stages of monitoring can be analysed in simulation tools to fine-tune future survey design decisions.

Treatment-resistant schizophrenia, affecting approximately 20–30% of patients with schizophrenia, has a high burden both for patients and healthcare services. There is a need to identify treatment resistance earlier in the course of the illness, in order that effective treatment, such as clozapine, can be offered promptly. We conducted a systemic literature review of prospective longitudinal studies with the aim of identifying predictors of treatment-resistant schizophrenia from the first episode. From the 545 results screened, we identified 12 published studies where data at the first episode was used to predict treatment resistance. Younger age of onset was the most consistent predictor of treatment resistance. We discuss the gaps in the literature and how future prediction models can identify predictors of treatment response more robustly.

Objectives: We sought to clarify the nature of self-reported cognitive function among healthy older adults by considering the short-term, within-person association (coupling) of subjective cognitive function with objective cognitive performance. We expected this within-person coupling to differ between persons as a function of self-perceived global cognitive decline and depression, anxiety, or neuroticism. Methods: This was an intensive measurement (short-term longitudinal) study of 29 older adult volunteers between the ages of 65 and 80 years without an existing diagnosis of dementia or mild cognitive impairment. Baseline assessment included neuropsychological testing and self-reported depression, anxiety, and neuroticism, as well as self- and informant-reported cognitive decline (relative to 10 years previously). Intensive within-person measurement occasions included subjective ratings of cognitive function paired with performance on a computerized working memory (n-back) task; each participant attended four or five assessments separated by intervals of at least one day. Statistical analysis was comprised of multilevel linear regression. Results: Comparison of models suggested that both neuroticism and self-rated cognitive decline explained unique variance in the within-person, across-occasion coupling of subjective cognitive function with objective working memory performance. Conclusions: Self-ratings of cognition may accurately reflect day-to-day variations in objective cognitive performance among older adults, especially for individuals lower in neuroticism and higher in self-reported cognitive decline. Clinicians should consider these individual differences when determining the validity of complaints about perceived cognitive declines in the context of otherwise healthy aging. (JINS, 2018, 24, 57–66)

The nature and origin of the Galactic warp represent one of the open questions posed by Galactic evolution. Thanks to Gaia high precision absolute astrometry, steps towards the understanding of the warp's dynamical nature can be made. Indeed, proper motions for long-lived stable warp are expected to show measurable trends in the component vertical to the galactic plane. Within this context, we search for the kinematic warp signal in the first Gaia data release (DR1). By analyzing distant spectroscopically-identified OB stars in the Hipparcos subset in Gaia DR1, we find that the kinematic trends cannot be explained by a simple model of a long-lived warp. We therefore discuss possible scenarios for the interpretation of the obtained results. We also present current work in progress to select a larger sample of OB star candidates from the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS) subsample in DR1, and delineate the points that we will be addressing in the near future.

Late-summer subglacial water pressures have been measured in a dense array of boreholes in the ablation area of Haut Glacier d’Arolla, Switzerland. Interpolated surfaces of minimum diurnal water pressure and diurnal water-pressure variation suggest the presence of a subglacial channel within a more widespread, distributed drainage system. The channel flows along the centre of a variable pressure axis (VPA), some tens of metres wide, that is characterized by low minimum diurnal water pressures (frequently atmospheric) and high diurnal water-pressure variations. These characteristics are transitional over a lateral distance of c. 70 m to higher and more stable subglacial water pressures in the adjacent distributed system. Water-pressure variations recorded in boreholes located close to the centre of the VPA reflect the delivery of surface-derived meltwater to the glacier bed and result in a diurnally reversing, transverse hydraulic gradient that drives water out from the channel into the distributed system during the afternoon and back to the channel overnight. Subglacial observations suggest that such flow occurs through a vertically confined sediment layer. Borehole turbidity records indicate that the resulting diurnal water flows are responsible for the mobilization and transport of fine debris in suspension. Analysis of the propagation velocity and amplitude attenuation cf the diurnal pressure waves suggests that the hydraulic conductivity of the sediment layer decreases exponentially with distance from the channel, falling from c. 10−4 m s−1 at the channel boundary to c. 10−7 m s−1 70 m away. These apparent hydraulic conductivities are consistent with Darcian flow through clean sand and typical glacial till, respectively.

We suggest that fine material is systematically flushed from basal sediments located adjacent to large, melt-season drainage channels beneath warm-based glaciers. This process may have important implications for patterns of glacier erosion, hydro-chemistry and dynamics.

Controlled burns and grazing are being tested to manage invasive grasses in the Prairie Pothole region of the Northern Great Plains. These practices, however, may inadvertently promote saltcedar infestations from seed by opening the vegetative canopy. Saltcedar seedling establishment was investigated in greenhouse experiments using intact soil cores from one summit and three footslope sites in eastern South Dakota. Establishment tests were conducted in soil cores collected from treatment and control plots immediately after spring fire treatment (postburn) and in cores that contained peak cool- or peak warm-season vegetation, with or without clipping (simulated grazing treatment), to simulate vegetation conditions typical of saltcedar seed-shed in northern regions. Cores were seeded with 100 saltcedar seeds and subirrigated to maintain high soil water conditions, characteristic of the environment near potholes during late spring/early summer. Seedlings were counted during the first 3 wk to estimate establishment and the height of five seedlings core−1 were measured weekly to estimate growth rates. Opening the canopy with fire or clipping increased saltcedar establishment. Cores taken immediately after fire treatment had two times more seedlings establish (38% vs. 19%) and greater average seedling growth rate (1.5 mm d−1 vs. 0.9 mm d−1) when compared with no-fire controls. Fire after seeding reduced seedling establishment to 5%, but did not affect growth rate. Saltcedar establishment in peak cool-season vegetation cores was 6% regardless of earlier fire treatment, whereas in peak warm-season vegetation, establishment ranged from 8% (no spring fire) to 17% (spring fire). If soils remain wet, invasion risk following spring fire may be greatest when warm-season grasses are flowering because this time coincides with northern saltcedar seed production. Areas adjacent to viable saltcedar seed sources should be managed to maximize canopy cover when seeds are released to limit further establishment. Fire after saltcedar seed deposition may control propagules and young seedlings.

The glancing interaction of a Prandtl-Meyer expansion fan with a supersonic wake is examined. The particular supersonic wakes of interest are the combustion wake generated by a vertical strut injected scramjet, and the side wall boundary layer of a supersonic wind tunnel. A physical structure for the interaction is defined, and an approximate analysis of the downstream behaviour of the wake is presented. The phenomenon of wake over-turning by the glancing expansion fan is introduced, based on this analysis. This over-turning produces a high pressure zone on the expansion generating surface, which for the vertical strut injected scramjet, is part of the thrust nozzle. Combustion wake over-turning is suggested to be a major thrust producing mechanism in this form of scramjet.

Pressure measurements were taken on the expansion generating surface of a glancing interaction involving the side wall boundary layer of a small supersonic wind tunnel. Results from the analysis presented were found to be consistent with these measurements.

The objective of design is the production of manufacturing drawings which are right. This objective will rarely be achieved without first making mistakes which require experiment to rectify so that design is the work of a team which includes designers who draw, development engineers and experimental manufacturing operatives.

Design must have an output which can be valued and the value of the output must exceed its costs. In the aircraft industry, the cost of design is a considerable part of the cost of the product and must be recovered directly from the customer. Because underestimating the cost of design is endemic and because some work done to obtain orders will not be successful, not all cost of design can be recovered from the customer and so some costs must be written off.

Increasingly stringent attitude stabilisation requirements are the current trend in both experimental and commercial satellites as is seen in the current Intelsat, ESRO and UK communication studies. These craft must be lightweight, compact and rugged during the launch phase but after mission capture such requirements no longer apply. The increasingly high power requirements of such craft are met by the use of large flexible solar arrays which are packed away during launch and unfurl when the craft becomes operational. For the three-axis stabilised craft being studied reaction jets are used to achieve the high pointing accuracy required. Such actuators may be hot or cold gas systems or in the future may be electric engines’. The broad spectral content of these actuators will inevitably excite modes of vibration in a wide range of frequencies. The influence of these highly resonant modes on the performance of on-board controllers, needing a relatively high bandwidth of 0-10 Hz, to achieve high pointing accuracy of up to a few seconds of arc may lead to design difficulties.

The supersonic combustion ramjet, or scramjet, is the engine cycle most suitable for sustained hypersonic flight in the atmosphere. This article describes some of the challenges facing scramjet designers, and the methods currently used for the calculation of scramjet performance. It then reviews the HyShot 2 and Hyper-X flight programs as examples of how sub-scale flights are now being used as important steps towards the development of operational systems. Finally, it describes some recent advances in three-dimensional scramjets with application to hypersonic cruise and multi-stage access-to-space vehicles.

Gaia will see little of the Galactic mid-plane and nuclear bulge due to high extinction at optical wavelengths. To study the structure and kinematics of the inner Galaxy we must look to longer wavelengths. The Vista Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV, Minniti et al. 2010) survey currently provides just over 4 years of observations covering approximately 560 square degrees of the Galactic bulge and plane. Typically each source is observed 50–150 times in the Ks band over this period. Using these data we provide relative proper motions for approximately 200 million unique sources down to Ks∼16 with uncertainties approaching 1 mas yr−1. In addition, we fit a solution of the parallactic motion of all sources with significant proper motion and discover a number of new nearby brown dwarfs. These results will allow us to identify faint common proper motion companions to stars with Gaia parallaxes, increasing the number of brown dwarf benchmark objects. Our absolute astrometric calibration precision is currently ∼ 2 mas yr−1, based on PPMXL. The Gaia absolute astrometric reference grid will allow us to precisely anchor our results and measure the streaming motions of stars in the bulge. Finally, we anticipate that the catalogue could provide kinematic distances to the numerous optically invisible high amplitude variable stars that VVV is discovering.

The growing awareness of the importance of the fossil record in the Milky Way forconstraining galaxy formation theory is reflected by the increasing number of new ground-and space-based surveys designed to unravel the formation history of the Galaxy. Recently,a new kinematic survey has been produced by means of spectro-photometric data from theSloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-DR7) and high-quality proper motions derived frommultiepoch positions from the Guide Star Catalogue II (GSC-II). In this framework, weassembled a sample of ~ 30 000 FGK nearby metal-poor (sub)dwarfs for whichselection and distance estimates take advantage of accurate stellar atmospheric parameters(effective temperature, surface gravity and metallicity) derived from SDSS spectra. Here,as one of the most interesting applications of this catalogue, we consider the feasibilityof probing fossil signatures of the formation of the Milky Way by selecting and analysingsubsamples of stars as tracers of the seven-dimensional space distribution (fullphase-space coordinates plus chemical abundance) of the Galactic halo population within afew kiloparsecs from the Sun. Preliminary results exhibit statistical evidence fordiscrete overdensities localised in kinematics and in the space of adiabatic invariants(angular momentum and energy). By examination of their intrinsic properties, we suggestthat they may be possible fossil signatures of past mergers or other accretion events.

Botulism in UK cattle has been confirmed by demonstrating type C botulinum toxin in sera from affected animals. Evidence is presented indicating the source of intoxication to be poultry carcasses containing type C Clostridium botulinum and its toxin. The organism was also found in poultry litter and in alimentary tract samples from slaughtered animals. The implications of these findings are discussed.