In this paper we propose and test a contracting mechanism, Multi-Contract Cost Sharing (MCCS), for use in the management of a sequence of projects. The mechanism is intended for situations where (1) the contractor knows more about the true costs of various projects than does the contracting agency (adverse selection), and (2) unobservable effort on the part of the contractor may lead to cost reductions (moral hazard). The proposed process is evaluated in an experimental environment that includes the essential economic features of the NASA process for the acquisition of Space Science Strategic missions. The environment is complex and the optimal mechanism is unknown. The design of the MCCS mechanism is based on the optimal contract for a simpler related environment. We compare the performance of the proposed process to theoretical benchmarks and to an implementation of the current NASA ‘cost cap’ procurement process. The data indicate that the proposed MCCS process generates significantly higher value per dollar spent than using cost caps, because it allocates resources more efficiently among projects and provides greater incentives to engage in cost-reducing innovations.

Foliar-applied postemergence applications of glufosinate are often applied to glufosinate-resistant crops to provide nonselective weed control without significant crop injury. Rainfall, air temperature, solar radiation, and relative humidity near the time of application have been reported to affect glufosinate efficacy. However, previous research may have not captured the full range of weather variability to which glufosinate may be exposed before or following application. Additionally, climate models suggest more extreme weather will become the norm, further expanding the weather range to which glufosinate can be exposed. The objective of this research was to quantify the probability of successful weed control (efficacy ≥85%) with glufosinate applied to some key weed species across a broad range of weather conditions. A database of >10,000 North American herbicide evaluation trials was used in this study. The database was filtered to include treatments with a single postemergence application of glufosinate applied to waterhemp [Amaranthus tuberculatus (Moq.) Sauer], morningglory species (Ipomoea spp.), and/or giant foxtail (Setaria faberi Herrm.) <15 cm in height. These species were chosen because they are well represented in the database and listed as common and troublesome weed species in both corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] (Van Wychen 2020, 2022). Individual random forest models were created. Low rainfall (≤20 mm) over the 5 d before glufosinate application was detrimental to the probability of successful control of A. tuberculatus and S. faberi. Lower relative humidity (≤70%) and solar radiation (≤23 MJ m−1 d−1) on the day of application reduced the probability of successful weed control in most cases. Additionally, the probability of successful control decreased for all species when average air temperature over the first 5 d after application was ≤25 C. As climate continues to change and become more variable, the risk of unacceptable control of several common species with glufosinate is likely to increase.

Foliar-applied postemergence herbicides are a critical component of corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] weed management programs in North America. Rainfall and air temperature around the time of application may affect the efficacy of herbicides applied postemergence in corn or soybean production fields. However, previous research utilized a limited number of site-years and may not capture the range of rainfall and air temperatures that these herbicides are exposed to throughout North America. The objective of this research was to model the probability of achieving successful weed control (≥85%) with commonly applied postemergence herbicides across a broad range of environments. A large database of more than 10,000 individual herbicide evaluation field trials conducted throughout North America was used in this study. The database was filtered to include only trials with a single postemergence application of fomesafen, glyphosate, mesotrione, or fomesafen + glyphosate. Waterhemp [Amaranthus tuberculatus (Moq.) Sauer], morningglory species (Ipomoea spp.), and giant foxtail (Setaria faberi Herrm.) were the weeds of focus. Separate random forest models were created for each weed species by herbicide combination. The probability of successful weed control deteriorated when the average air temperature within the first 10 d after application was <19 or >25 C for most of the herbicide by weed species models. Additionally, drier conditions before postemergence herbicide application reduced the probability of successful control for several of the herbicide by weed species models. As air temperatures increase and rainfall becomes more variable, weed control with many of the commonly used postemergence herbicides is likely to become less reliable.

Discriminatory morpho-metric features are obvious on legume seeds. This study utilized seven quantitative and 11 qualitative seed traits to characterize 139 African yam bean (AYB) breeding lines which were developed through single seed descent procedure. The seven quantitative data were subjected to analysis of variance, their means were combined with qualitative scores for genetic distance, principal component (PC) and clustering analyses. Significant (P ≤ 0.001) variation existed among the breeding lines for the seven traits. Mean ranges of seed length (SL), width (SW), thickness (ST) and a single seed weight (SSW) among the 139 breeding lines were respectively: 6.77–10.22 mm, 5.70–7.86 mm, 4.96–7.45 mm and 0.15–0.42 g. Positive and significant (P ≤ 0.05) genotypic correlation existed among SSW, SL, SW and ST. Seed colours, pattern, shapes, sizes, surface texture, brilliance varied among the breeding lines. Ranges of phenotypic and genotypic coefficient of variation and broadsense heritability were: 5.49–23.84%, 2.95–19.88% and 28.91–69.54% respectively. Fourteen (quantitative and qualitative) traits contributed higher (≥ 0.30) eigenvector loadings to the first three PC axes which explained 57.9% of the total variation among the breeding lines. Similarity among the lines was 0.75. Four clusters ensued in the dendrograph and each group had genetic similarities of: 0.85 (I), 0.82 (II), 0.78 (III) and 0.80 (IV). This research unveiled significant variation among AYB breeding lines with promising reliability for breeding opportunities of the qualitative and quantitative seed traits, which could contribute to higher grain yield and acceptability.

Childhood obesity represents a significant global health concern and identifying its risk factors is crucial for developing intervention programs. Many “omics” factors associated with the risk of developing obesity have been identified, including genomic, microbiomic, and epigenomic factors. Here, using a sample of 48 infants, we investigated how the methylation profiles in cord blood and placenta at birth were associated with weight outcomes (specifically, conditional weight gain, body mass index, and weight-for-length ratio) at age six months. We characterized genome-wide DNA methylation profiles using the Illumina Infinium MethylationEpic chip, and incorporated information on child and maternal health, and various environmental factors into the analysis. We used regression analysis to identify genes with methylation profiles most predictive of infant weight outcomes, finding a total of 23 relevant genes in cord blood and 10 in placenta. Notably, in cord blood, the methylation profiles of three genes (PLIN4, UBE2F, and PPP1R16B) were associated with all three weight outcomes, which are also associated with weight outcomes in an independent cohort suggesting a strong relationship with weight trajectories in the first six months after birth. Additionally, we developed a Methylation Risk Score (MRS) that could be used to identify children most at risk for developing childhood obesity. While many of the genes identified by our analysis have been associated with weight-related traits (e.g., glucose metabolism, BMI, or hip-to-waist ratio) in previous genome-wide association and variant studies, our analysis implicated several others, whose involvement in the obesity phenotype should be evaluated in future functional investigations.

Recent research has shown the potential of speleothem δ13C to record a range of environmental processes. Here, we report on 230Th-dated stalagmite δ13C records for southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia, over the last 40,000 yr to investigate the relationship between tropical vegetation productivity and atmospheric methane concentrations. We demonstrate that the Sulawesi stalagmite δ13C record is driven by changes in vegetation productivity and soil respiration and explore the link between soil respiration and tropical methane emissions using HadCM3 and the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. The model indicates that changes in soil respiration are primarily driven by changes in temperature and CO2, in line with our interpretation of stalagmite δ13C. In turn, modelled methane emissions are driven by soil respiration, providing a mechanism that links methane to stalagmite δ13C. This relationship is particularly strong during the last glaciation, indicating a key role for the tropics in controlling atmospheric methane when emissions from high-latitude boreal wetlands were suppressed. With further investigation, the link between δ13C in stalagmites and tropical methane could provide a low-latitude proxy complementary to polar ice core records to improve our understanding of the glacial–interglacial methane budget.

Operational Risk is one of the most difficult risks to model. It is a large and diverse category covering anything from cyber losses to mis-selling fines; and from processing errors to HR issues. Data is usually lacking, particularly for low frequency, high impact losses, and consequently there can be a heavy reliance on expert judgement. This paper seeks to help actuaries and other risk professionals tasked with the challenge of validating models of operational risks. It covers the loss distribution and scenario-based approaches most commonly used to model operational risks, as well as Bayesian Networks. It aims to give a comprehensive yet practical guide to how one may validate each of these and provide assurance that the model is appropriate for a firm’s operational risk profile.

The Biga Peninsula of NW Turkey is host to many kaolin and halloysite deposits with mineralization occurring at the intersections of fault zones in contact with Late Eocene-Miocene calc-alkaline volcanic rocks. Distinguishing between the relative overprinting of hypogene by supergene processes in these deposits is a challenge and important because they affect the physical-chemical properties of minerals and their potential for industrial applications. This study examines the Sarıbeyli-Sığırlı and Bodurlar kaolin deposits in NW Turkey, which were formed from similar volcanics as evidenced by 40Ar/39Ar. Late Eocene (34.2 ± 0.20 Ma) to Early Oligocene (32.7 ± 0.17 Ma) ages for both primary volcanic rocks and alunites are consistent with surrounding rocks in the Çanakkale region. Criteria used to distinguish hypogene alteration from supergene alteration processes come from X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) and Raman spectroscopies, thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA), scanning and transmission electron microscopy (SEM, TEM), and elemental analyses. Isotopic δ18O depletion and δD enrichment of the Sarıbeyli-Sığırlı deposit suggests that it was more influenced by magmatic waters than was the Bodurlar deposit. The Bodurlar deposit contains a paucity of dickite compared to the Sarıbeyli-Sığırlı deposit, which is evidenced by lower TGA endotherms, higher ratios of XRD intensities for reflections at 1.316 Å and 1.307 Å, distinctive FTIR absorbance bands at 3620 cm− 1 and 3652 cm−1, and relative Raman intensities of the γ1 and γ5 vibrational modes.

A genetic model is proposed whereby these deposits are mainly formed through an acid-sulfate hydrothermal alteration, in what appears to be a volcanic-hydrothermal system. The extent of hydrothermal alteration was controlled by fault density and the initial texture of the volcanic rocks. These steam-heated environments included sulfide-enriched vapors and groundwater mixed to varying degrees in the vadose zone. The Sarıbeyli-Sığrlı and Bodurlar deposits, respectively, contain mineral assemblages that reflect both hypogene (kaolinite, alunite, dickite) and supergene (kaolinite, halloysite, jarosite) processes. These observations offer a basis for comparing and discriminating the relative influence of these two important alteration processes responsible for the formation of kaolin deposits in NW Turkey and around the world.

A field-mapping and crystal-chemical study of two alunite- and halloysite-rich deposits in the Turplu area, situated northwest of Balıkesir on the Biga Peninsula of northwest Turkey reveals a mineralogically diverse and a potentially economic clay deposit. The mineral assemblage along fault zones is dominated by halloysite and sometimes alunite. The alunite is nearly end-member in composition (a = 6.995 Å, c = 17.195 Å) often occurring with a minor Ca phosphate phase. Of the two deposits studied, the more northerly mine contains more alunite relative to halloysite. Geochemical alteration indices suggest that the northern mine has experienced a slightly greater degree of hydrothermal modification. Halloysite is found in both hydrated and dehydrated states and assumes a tubular morphology. Observations by transmission and scanning electron microscopy are consistent with a model of halloysite dehydration, where the shapes transform from an open-hole tubular morphology to a closed-hole unfurled morphology.

Mineral paragenesis includes the effects of initial deposition of volcanic tuffs and andesite on top of karstic terrain. The contact between altered volcanics and underlying limestones is irregular and appears to have provided a mechanism to flush both hydrothermal and meteoric waters through the volcanics. Periods of hydrothermal alteration (hypogene) contemporaneous with extensional and strike-slip faulting have resulted in alunite and halloysite deposits. Hydrothermal alteration is concentrated near the fault zones. Because of subsequent weathering (supergene) away from the fault zones, much of the andesitic volcanic rocks have been altered to a more smectite-rich and kaolinite-bearing assemblage. The deposits continue to be both plastically deformed in the alunite/halloysite regions and to undergo brittle deformation in the saprolitized volcanics. Tectonic deformation has mixed the contacts, such that limestone blocks are entrained into parts of the alteration zones. Gibbsite and gypsum are common weathering products associated with limestone block inclusions. Genetic models for the origins of alunite-halloysite deposits in NW Turkey should consider as possible influencing factors the underlying lithologies, the extent of hydrothermal alteration, and recent weathering by meteoric fluids. In the case of the Turplu deposits, karstic limestones, hydrothermal circulation of sulfate-rich waters, and a post-alteration history of meteoric weathering were all important factors in their formation.